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Shared Vision Series: Base Rates

Introducing 'Shared Vision: Pro Forecaster Essays on Predicting the Future Better'

This Metaculus Journal series equips you with strategies, tools, and insights from professional forecasters so you can be more accurate and better calibrated.

When Should You Deviate From the Base Rate?


The importance of incorporating base rates into forecasts is widely acknowledged. But "base rate" can mean multiple things, and it's sometimes unclear which meaning applies and when one can deviate from them.

Ryan Beck brings his experiences as a Metaculus Pro Forecaster, an INFER pro, and as Metaculus's Forecasting Program Coordinator to bear on the topic in this essay. Read it in the Metaculus Journal here.

Seeing the Future Through Fiction: How to Harness Your Creativity for Forecasting with Jared Leibowitch


How can creativity enhance forecasting? Metaculus Pro Forecaster and Superforecaster Jared Leibowitch shares how he uses creative writing to sharpen his forecasts, focusing on the question of AIs being granted legal rights. Read it in the Metaculus Journal here.

Forecasting Extraordinary Events with Robert de Neufville


The first essay in the series features Metaculus Pro Forecaster and Good Judgment Superforecaster Robert de Neufville, who wrestles with a crucial forecasting question: How do you forecast extraordinary events? Read it here.

We will update this discussion post as more essays are published. We would love to hear your feedback. Are there particular forecasting topics that you would like to see covered?