Congratulations to the winners of our fourth quarter 2023 Quarterly Cup! The top three finishers are:

1. partlygloudy
2. kqr
3. MikeGloudemans

A big round of applause for our champions! Winners, we will contact you shortly to arrange delivery of your attractive, Metaculus-branded caps.

This quarter began with a protracted contest for a new US Speaker of the House, and closed with an appeal to the US Supreme Court to fast track review of presidential immunity, and disruptions to Red Sea shipping caused by conflict in the Middle East. As always, we are grateful to forecasters for participating in these questions and helping shed light on significant world developments.

Forecast in the Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup

Get ready for the Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup! We invite forecasters of all levels, from newcomers to seasoned experts, to join in and sharpen their forecasting skills. The competition starts soon, with questions opening on January 8, here. The tournament will kick off with the following questions:

• Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?
• Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?
• When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?
• Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?