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Winners of the Nuclear Risk Tournament

by RyanBeck {{qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr}} Edited on {{qctrl.question.edited_time | dateStr}} {{"estimatedReadingTime" | translate:({minutes: qctrl.question.estimateReadingTime()})}}
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  • The Nuclear Risk Forecasting Tournament has come to an end. Congratulations to the top three forecasters!

    Thank you to all forecasters who participated, and congratulations to all who earned medals. This tournament was part of Rethink Priorities’ research efforts to better understand the likelihood of nuclear conflict and key factors involved in nuclear conflict that could serve as valuable information for decision-makers. We’d like to thank Rethink Priorities for sponsoring this tournament.

    The tournament featured a number of questions related to nuclear proliferation and geopolitical factors, like the questions below:

    This tournament has ended, however a number of longer term questions on the topic of nuclear risk remain open for forecasting as part of the Nuclear Risk Horizons Project, also sponsored by Rethink Priorities.

    Find more information about the Nuclear Risk Forecasting Tournament, including the complete leaderboard, here.

    We will be in touch with prize winners to arrange payments. We are also happy to facilitate donations to the organizations listed here.

    Congratulations again to blednotik, MariaSh, and jowo!

    Note that one question in the tournament was originally scheduled to resolve before the end of the tournament, but will be resolved when resolution data becomes available after the end of the tournament and will not be included in the tournament leaderboard.

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