assembling accurate futures modeling probable estimations exploring quantitative forecasts composing intelligent futures generating intelligent contingencies mapping the future composing calibrated contingencies predicting probable forecasts modeling precise predictions composing contingent understanding crowdsourcing definitive contingencies mapping quantitative wisdom exploring predictive wisdom exploring intelligent contingencies


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Ideas for clinical trials contest

We're strongly considering running a contest on medical clinical trials, where there is a nice data source, important questions, and (sometimes) short enough timelines. So I thought I'd open this thread for discussion on:

  • General interest gauge: are you interested in this and why?

  • What sort of questions would be most interesting? Phase I, II or III? What kind of outcomes?

  • What sorts of definitions or rules would we need to put in place to make the scoring clean enough?

  • Are there regular users with a reasonable amount of expertise who could contribute to writing/vetting the question series? (If so please feel invited to PM

Also feel free to chime on alternative contests we should consider.