predicting precise understanding mapping definitive predictions generating critical insights exploring intelligent insights crowdsourcing accurate forecasts mapping the future computing predictive understanding aggregating probable futures predicting intelligent futures mapping predictive contingencies forecasting quantitative contingencies computing calibrated wisdom computing precise estimations assembling calibrated futures

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Ideas for clinical trials contest

We're strongly considering running a contest on medical clinical trials, where there is a nice data source, important questions, and (sometimes) short enough timelines. So I thought I'd open this thread for discussion on:

  • General interest gauge: are you interested in this and why?

  • What sort of questions would be most interesting? Phase I, II or III? What kind of outcomes?

  • What sorts of definitions or rules would we need to put in place to make the scoring clean enough?

  • Are there regular users with a reasonable amount of expertise who could contribute to writing/vetting the question series? (If so please feel invited to PM support@metaculus.com)

Also feel free to chime on alternative contests we should consider.