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Ragnarök Series—results so far

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It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Luckily, the Ragnarök Question Series will bring essential clarity to your evaluation of the risks facing humanity. Its aim is to analyse some of the catastrophes we are most likely to befall, and to identify potential causes of our collective demise.

Predictions about global catastrophes this century

This table contains all probabilities of the computed on the 10h of February, 2021. The table was generated from 1,820 predictions. The first two columns are computed as the product of the overall probability of a catastrophe and the probability that if a catastrophe occurs it is due to the relevant event. The third and fourth columns are products of the earlier columns and the probability that if the relevant catastrophe occurs more than 95% of the population will be lost. The precise specification of each question may be found in the question list below. ">10% decline?" and ">95% decline?" refer to the percentage loss in the Earth's human population relative to the pre-catastrophe population over some specified timeframe. The total is computed using the assumption that events are independent.


All individuals questions can be found here:

  1. By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

  2. Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

  3. Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?

  4. Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?

  5. Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

  6. Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

For those with an interest in the fate of humanity in the event of some the above catastrophes occur, have a look at following questions.

  1. If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

  2. If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

  3. If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

  4. If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?

  5. If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?

Categories:
Series – Ragnarok

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

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