What is your motivation for using Metaculus? How do you see the range of motivations among Metaculus users? How do you think that will change over time?

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We are all on Metaculus for some set of reasons. What do you hope to get out of participating in Metaculus? This is a place where you can discuss your motivations for being here and how you think that may change as Metaculus evolves.

The discussion is meant to help Metaculus users understand each other a bit and perhaps use that information to make more accurate predictions or write questions that have broader appeal to participants (current or future).

Metaculus Itself

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

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