Hi Vox readers, welcome to Metaculus! This is the 2020 version of our Future Perfect Question Series. The 2021 version is here.
Dylan Matthews, Kelsey Piper, and Sigal Samuel of Vox's Future Perfect have made a number of predictions with probability estimates virtuously attached. Their set of 2020 forecasts is high-profile modeling of excellent epistemic norms.
With Future Perfect's blessing, we've taken their prediction list, and collected it into a Metaculus series. The series includes some already-existing Metaculus questions, along with some defined to be identical to those in the article. For the new ones, in case of ambiguity in their resolution we will defer to the (presumed) followup article in Vox assessing their accuracy (see here for the 2020 article assessing the accuracy of their 2019 predictions.)
If you're landing here from the Vox article, welcome to Metaculus! Feel free to browse the below questions and predict anonymously, but for more fun and to track your predictions, please sign up.
Here are the questions:
US invasion of Iran? (note this is a stronger statement than made by the Vox prediction.)
Will China fail to curtail its Uyghur internment camp program in 2020? (Note this is a weaker statement than that by Vox.)