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Future Perfect 2020 Series

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Hi Vox readers, welcome to Metaculus! This is the 2020 version of our Future Perfect Question Series. The 2021 version is here.

Dylan Matthews, Kelsey Piper, and Sigal Samuel of Vox's Future Perfect have made a number of predictions with probability estimates virtuously attached. Their set of 2020 forecasts is high-profile modeling of excellent epistemic norms.

With Future Perfect's blessing, we've taken their prediction list, and collected it into a Metaculus series. The series includes some already-existing Metaculus questions, along with some defined to be identical to those in the article. For the new ones, in case of ambiguity in their resolution we will defer to the (presumed) followup article in Vox assessing their accuracy (see here for the 2020 article assessing the accuracy of their 2019 predictions.)

If you're landing here from the Vox article, welcome to Metaculus! Feel free to browse the below questions and predict anonymously, but for more fun and to track your predictions, please sign up.

Here are the questions:

Will Trump be re-elected president?

Will Biden be the 2020 Democratic Nominee?

US invasion of Iran? (note this is a stronger statement than made by the Vox prediction.)

Will 2020 end without a new Supreme Court appointment by Trump?

Will the GOP hold the Senate past the 2020 election?

Will the Whole Woman's Health case be overturned in 2020?

The Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?

Will the number of people in global poverty fall in 2020?

Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020?

Will China fail to curtail its Uyghur internment camp program in 2020? (Note this is a weaker statement than that by Vox.)

Will Netanyahu retain his seat as Israeli prime minister through 2020?

Will 2020 pass with no gene drives to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes launched in any part of the world?

Will 2020 see no new CRISPR-edited babies born?

Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more cities?

Will global carbon emissions in 2020 increase relative to 2019?

Will average world temperatures in 2020 increase relative to 2019?

Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history?

Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

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