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Metaculus anecdotes

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In the space of predicting outcomes of things, Metaculus is far on one side of the spectrum in publicly exhibiting its full track record (the other side being bloviating pundits with vague predictions, no accountability, and who never admit error.)

And we believe the correct answer to the question "why should I believe what Metaculus says" is "you should look at the track record and on that basis decide how much credence to give to its current predictions."

However, people are storytellers and they really, really want to hear anecdotes about particular cases in which Metaculus did surprisingly well at something, or called something early, etc. Even better than having these come from those that created Metaculus would be to hear it from the users. So we're interested to hear your thoughts/anecdotes. Where do you think the community nailed it? Are there things where you were surprised by either the community or the Metaculus prediction? Are there things Metaculus predicted that caused you or someone observed by you to act differently?

(Fair warning: these might be used shamelessly for Metaculus promotion, alongside the much more important numerical track record.)

Metaculus Itself