Metaculus is pleased to announce the Academy Series, a new series of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer. Each question is designed to have clear candidates for reference classes, publicly available data, and relatively fast resolution.
As a whole, the series focuses on topics of general interest and pop culture. Although the questions are designed to be approachable for newer forecasters, the series is open to everyone, and careful inside view arguments and well-judged updating as new information appears could well provide an advantage, so there should be plenty for experienced forecasters to get their teeth into if they wish.
The Academy Series will consist of two sets of questions, one binary and one range-based. The first set of ten binary questions will open on Thursday June 4, and the second set of range-based questions will open two weeks later. If you’ve mainly been a reader of our site so far, and are interested in getting some hands-on forecasting experience, this is the perfect opportunity to get started.
Here is the first set of questions:
The complete list may be found here, or by searching for the Academy Series category.
We’d like to thank Metaculus user @alexrjl for his initiative, contributions, and enthusiasm, without which this series would not have come to fruition.