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Let's pick cherries: what was your best prediction?
As a fun exercise and an ingredient to a slide I'd like to make (illustrating the danger of cherry-picking successful predictions), I'd love to hear from people what their very best prediction was.
No need for humility: it doesn't matter if this was skill of just plain luck — all that matters is that it seems impressive. You can ID your best predictions of course by just looking at the top of your track record plots. But feel free to offer up successes based on whatever criteria you think is impressive; extra fun are those for which you beat the community score by a lot.
What I'm hoping for are data points like:
"On June 15, 2018, Anthony predicted with 94% certainty that there would be a tornado during the next week in Oklahoma. On June 19, a tornado occurred"
"On June 15, 2018, Anthony predicted that in the ensuing 6 months, between 18 and 22 people would be convicted of smuggling syrup across the Canadian border. As of 6 months later, 20 people had been so convicted."
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