Metaculus is working together with a team of researchers who are studying the psychological basis of forecasting abilities. We're working together to organise a forecasting experiment, which will likely involve running a contest on a dozen binary questions on Metaculus. But which questions should we include?
We want to ensure that these questions are compelling to the Metaculus community, and—since the contest may result in a boost in activity—that the contest generates meaningful engagement on important questions.
Hence, we ask you, what are some important short-to-medium-term binary questions that you'd like to see us include in the experiment?
Some details on the types of questions that we're looking for:
- The questions should be binary
- The questions should be set to resolve within ~5 months, but no sooner than ~2 months
- The question should be of interest to some portion of the other participants in the experiment, and it should not presume some context that is unlikely to be known to other participants
Feel free to comment any question ideas, or to link to questions that you've written that you'd like to see receive more attention by being folded into the experiment.