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Metaculus Staffing News

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It’s with great excitment that I can officially announce that Gaia Dempsey (aka fianxu) has stepped into the role of Metaculus CEO. Gaia has been part of the team for more than a year now as an advisor and then prime mover on the pandemic project, and we think she will bring the perfect blend of experience, brilliance, energy, creativity, entrepreneurial spirit, and excitement about forecasting and the community to take Metaculus to the next level.

I (continuing as board president) and the other Metaculus founders will continue to be centrally involved in the endeavor, but with Gaia in her new role we expect Metaculus to move both faster and in exciting new directions — while continuing to be the awesome corner of the internet that it has become.

This and other personnel shifts are reflected in the new (and long overdue) about Metaculus page, which will be updated over the coming ~week to include more of the Metaculus staff (on whom I would like to take this opportunity to also heap praise on — what a fantastic team!)

Metaculus Itself

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

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