Meet Metaculus Developer Partner Ought

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Dear Metaculus community,

The evolution of the Metaculus platform over the last five years has been supported and accelerated by a continuous positive feedback loop between our team and our amazing community of forecasters. We know that many people in this community have the skills, experience, and brilliance to be able to conceptualize and develop useful new tools, such methods of data analysis, and new ways of collaborating on forecasting. Our aim is to enable participation and collaboration from the developer community at large.

Our inaugural developer partner is AI non-profit Ought. Over the past few weeks, you may have encountered Elicit or Ergo, tools for forecasting developed by the Ought team.

Ought is a non-profit research lab with a mission to build tools for delegating open-ended reasoning to machine learning systems. When we first connected with Ought earlier this year, it was clear that our teams had uniquely similar interests in transformative technology, compositional reasoning, and forecasting humanity’s long-term future.

In addition to these two new tools, you may also see various series or contests supported by Ought. These contests will be authored by the user Ought (representing the team), and will have the partner tag on them. Ought team members are identified by their usernames as well.

We welcome the Ought team and we’re excited to see how their work will continue to enrich the broader forecasting ecosystem!

In support of Ought and future partners, we will soon be launching a new API authentication workflow that will enable third-party developers to connect to the Metaculus platform safely and securely.

If you’d like to learn more about becoming a Metaculus Developer and building plugins and tools that connect to the Metaculus ecosystem, we’d love to hear from you.

As always, happy predicting!

The Metaculus Team

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

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