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Prediction microteaming discussion

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This is a feature we're considering implementing. We would love to get some feedback on whether users like or dislike the general idea, as it would add a significant new dynamic to the platform.

Problems and opportunities:

  • Currently, Metaculus users are (mildly) disincentivized from sharing their prediction or the detailed reasoning behind it, whereas more sharing is probably a public good.

  • Previous studies have shown that forecasting teams are effective; they are also fun. It would be nice to have a teaming system on Metaculus.

Basic idea:

  • A predictor A can publicly post a detailed prediction about a question and make it followable.
    Other predictors can choose to follow that prediction.

  • If a user B follows a prediction, they pay C tachyons and predictor A gets C’ tachyons

  • Once B follows A’s prediction:

    • B’s prediction on the question auto-tracks A’s prediction, including if the latter changes.
    • B is able to view and post to the comment thread attached to A’s prediction post; but this thread is not otherwise publicly viewable.
    • B is committed: if they want to change the prediction they need to persuade A to do so. They also cannot follow another prediction on the same question later.
    • If A updates their prediction it stays hidden in the private comment thread.
  • After question closing, all discussions are viewable by all.

Implications:

  • Predictors are incentivised (via Tachyons) to post detailed explanations and compete with each other for “followers.”

  • A prediction then makes a “microteam” that exists as long as the question is open, can collaborate, and effectively submits one single prediction with more weight in the community and Metaculus predictions.

Categories:
Metaculus Itself