This is a feature we're considering implementing. We would love to get some feedback on whether users like or dislike the general idea, as it would add a significant new dynamic to the platform.
Problems and opportunities:
Currently, Metaculus users are (mildly) disincentivized from sharing their prediction or the detailed reasoning behind it, whereas more sharing is probably a public good.
Previous studies have shown that forecasting teams are effective; they are also fun. It would be nice to have a teaming system on Metaculus.
A predictor A can publicly post a detailed prediction about a question and make it followable.
Other predictors can choose to follow that prediction.
If a user B follows a prediction, they pay C tachyons and predictor A gets C’ tachyons
Once B follows A’s prediction:
- B’s prediction on the question auto-tracks A’s prediction, including if the latter changes.
- B is able to view and post to the comment thread attached to A’s prediction post; but this thread is not otherwise publicly viewable.
- B is committed: if they want to change the prediction they need to persuade A to do so. They also cannot follow another prediction on the same question later.
- If A updates their prediction it stays hidden in the private comment thread.
After question closing, all discussions are viewable by all.
Predictors are incentivised (via Tachyons) to post detailed explanations and compete with each other for “followers.”
A prediction then makes a “microteam” that exists as long as the question is open, can collaborate, and effectively submits one single prediction with more weight in the community and Metaculus predictions.