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Forecasting Tournament — Road to Recovery

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Metaculus is hosting the Road to Recovery forecasting tournament on mobility trends in the United States, in partnership with a transportation company.

Our aim with this tournament is to generate accurate predictions on US mobility trends to assist with transit planning during our current turbulent moment.

In addition to the reputation benefits you will accrue for out-predicting the Metaculus crowd, we will award prizes to each of the top three predictors:

  • $600 for first prize
  • $350 for second prize
  • $150 for third prize

These are to be awarded to the users with the highest number of points on the tournament's end date. A total of 16 questions will form the tournament.

There is one small addition: in order to be eligible for prizes, you'll need to make comments in the comments section, explaining the reasoning behind your forecasts or significant updates. Specifically, we require you to share your reasoning on at least 5 occasions over the course of the tournament.

All the questions that currently form part of the tournament may be found here. The rankings will be displayed here.

Terms and conditions

  • Sponsors reserve the right to modify the terms of the contest.
  • This Contest shall be construed in accordance with U.S. law. All Federal, state and local laws and regulations apply. Winners are required to pay all applicable taxes on the prize and Metaculus assumes no liability for such taxes.
  • Void where prohibited by law. Metaculus reserves the right to refuse to award any Prize if doing so violates any applicable laws.
  • All decisions of the organizers are final and the selection of Winners is at the sole and absolute discretion of Metaculus.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

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