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The 20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest
Welcome to the 20/20 Insight forecasting contest!
In this contest, you will answer 14 questions in a diverse set of domains, including geopolitics, economics, COVID-19, and US politics.
In addition to the usual probability judgment, for 10 of the questions, we will also ask you to explain and elaborate on how you reached your final predictions.
Unique to this contest, prizes will be given out not only to the most accurate forecasters, but also to the forecasters who provide the best-reasoned arguments for their predictions.
You will have until October 29th, 6PM EST to submit your predictions.
How It Works
At the top of each question page, you will find a link to an external questionnaire. Participation in the contest requires you to fill out the questionnaire in full for each of the 14 questions and a background questionnaire. Elaboration on your reasoning in the linked questionnaire will be required for only 10 of these 14 questions.
Dragging the slider within the Metaculus question page alone is not sufficient for participation in the contest.
For full details and scoring and allocation of prizes, see here.
Final questionnaire (required):