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The 20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest

Welcome to the 20/20 Insight forecasting contest!

In this contest, you will answer 14 questions in a diverse set of domains, including geopolitics, economics, COVID-19, and US politics.

In addition to the usual probability judgment, for 10 of the questions, we will also ask you to explain and elaborate on how you reached your final predictions.

Unique to this contest, prizes will be given out not only to the most accurate forecasters, but also to the forecasters who provide the best-reasoned arguments for their predictions.

You will have until October 29th, 6PM EST to submit your predictions.

How It Works

At the top of each question page, you will find a link to an external questionnaire. Participation in the contest requires you to fill out the questionnaire in full for each of the 14 questions and a background questionnaire. Elaboration on your reasoning in the linked questionnaire will be required for only 10 of these 14 questions.

Dragging the slider within the Metaculus question page alone is not sufficient for participation in the contest.


For full details and scoring and allocation of prizes, see here.


Questions

  1. Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?

  2. On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?

  3. Will there be at least ten fatalities caused in post-election political violence in the United States?

  4. By December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?

  5. By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?

  6. Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?

  7. By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?

  8. Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?

  9. Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by at least 2%?

  10. Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?

Tie-Breakers:

  1. Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?

  2. Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3% percent or more?

  3. Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?

  4. On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?

Final questionnaire (required):

  1. Background questionnaire