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Forecasting AI Progress — Discussion

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This post is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the Forecasting AI Progress Tournament. You can view all other questions in this round here.

Forecasting AI Progress is a large-scale, comprehensive forecasting tournament dedicated to predicting advances in artificial intelligence. The tournament features a total of three rounds, these are:

  • The Maximum Likelihood Round (Mid December 2020 — Mid February 2021)
  • The Hill Climbing Round (Mid January 2021 — Mid March 2021)
  • The Deep Learning Round (Mid January 2021 — Mid April 2021)

A total of $43,500 is awarded for performance across these three rounds. Another $6,500 is allocated for Dreyfus prizes, which are awarded to the five authors of best analyses of the long-term future of AI. You can read more about the tournament structure, rules, and the allocation of prizes here.


Q: Do I need to register to be a participant in the tournament, and eligible for the prizes?
A: Yes, you will need to complete a quick registration process to officially participate. To do this, just go over to any question in the tournament, make a prediction, and you'll be prompted to register.

Q: Did I need to have been pre-registered to be a participant in the tournament, and eligible for the prizes?
A: No, you don't need to have been pre-registered.

Q: I see that some questions span time-frames that are longer than the tournament's. The prizes should all be disbursed by 2022, so what is the role of questions spanning longer than 2 years in the future?
A: Questions that span a span a horizon beyond around Mid-February 2022 won't count toward your overall performance. However, that does not mean that these questions are not important. In fact, these questions might be the most important to answer to contribute to an understanding the future of AI.

Q: Do I need to answer all the questions in a round to qualify for prizes?
A: Yes, you do—even the hard ones!

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

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