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Future Perfect 2021 Series

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This year again, Dylan Matthews, Kelsey Piper, and Sigal Samuel of Vox's Future Perfect have made a number of predictions with probability estimates virtuously attached. Their set of 2021 forecasts is high-profile modelling of excellent epistemic norms.

We've decided to again take their prediction list, and make it into a Metaculus series. The questions are in the process of being written in a form suitable for Metaculus, check this page again for an updated list.

If you're landing here from the Vox article, welcome to Metaculus! Feel free to browse the below questions and predict anonymously, but for more fun and to track your predictions, please sign up.

Here are the questions (links to the Metaculus questions to be added as they are written):

A post on the 2020 version of the series can be found here, with the questions available here.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

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