This year again, Dylan Matthews, Kelsey Piper, and Sigal Samuel of Vox's Future Perfect have made a number of predictions with probability estimates virtuously attached. Their set of 2021 forecasts is high-profile modelling of excellent epistemic norms.

We've decided to again take their prediction list, and make it into a Metaculus series. The questions are in the process of being written in a form suitable for Metaculus, check this page again for an updated list.

If you're landing here from the Vox article, welcome to Metaculus! Feel free to browse the below questions and predict anonymously, but for more fun and to track your predictions, please sign up.

Here are the questions (links to the Metaculus questions to be added as they are written):

• Trump will uneventfully leave office on January 20

• Biden will have a treasury secretary, secretary of state, defense secretary, and attorney general confirmed by the end of the year

• At least one US state will have an abortion ban currently blocked by the courts go into effect

• No one in Trump’s immediate family will be indicted

• Trump approval rating by year’s end will be in the 40 to 45 percent range

• The US unemployment rate will stay above 5 percent through November

• US poverty will be higher in late 2021 than it was in late 2020

• The median home price in the Bay Area will fall 5 percent or more

• 100 million Americans will be vaccinated, at least partially, against the coronavirus by end of April

• Restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year

• A deadly new zoonotic outbreak will emerge

• The US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open

• The Hadi government and Houthi rebels in Yemen reach a peace agreement

• LDP continues to govern Japan

• CDU continues to govern Germany

• India’s economy will grow in quarters 1-3 of 2021 after shrinking briefly in 2020

• At least three new basic income pilots will be launched

• No more countries will leave the EU

• An AI breakthrough will lead to a game-changing advance in biology

• Global carbon emissions will increase

• Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2020

• Plant-based meat market share will increase by at least 20 percent

A post on the 2020 version of the series can be found here, with the questions available here.