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Matthew Yglesias Predicts 2021

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Matthew Yglesias, co-founder of, author of the recent book One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger, and publisher of the excellent blog and newsletter Slow Boring, recently made a set of public predictions as a self-improvement exercise. This warms our hearts at Metaculus, as we're thrilled about there being more thoughtful thinkers who make, record, share and track their quantitative predictions.

Matthew generously gave Metaculus the go-ahead to record his predictions and run a short series about some of them, so that others can participate and try their hand at forecasting alongside him. You can read the (paywalled) blog post that kicked things off here.

And now for the numbers. Matthew Yglesias predicted, as of December 28, 2020, that in 2021: