Hello Fellow Forecasters,

My name is Jeffray Behr and I am a Community Shaper for the Alt-Protein Tournament, which means that I'll have moderator powers on the forecasting questions within it, and I'll be here to hopefully point forecasters in the direction of helpful resources as the tournament unfolds.

I currently work as a Food Production Research Engineer for Rebellyous Foods, a plant-based chicken startup in Seattle, where I develop new equipment and processes to make the manufacturing of plant-based meat cheaper and more efficient. I am also the Research Team Lead for the Stanford Alt Protein Project, where I advocate for expanding research to address the challenges within the alternative protein industry and help to initiate new projects.

My role here on Metaculus as a Community Shaper includes providing clarifications and information sources when Alt-Protein Tournament participants have questions, assisting with the creation of new questions for the next tournament round, and generally being a resource in whatever ways I can. My approach to this role is to do everything I can to ensure that the questions are clearly communicated to everyone fairly, and that questions are interpreted, edited, and resolved in a way which maintains the spirit of the question. Also, I will consult with Metaculus moderators and other experts when responding to comments. Lastly, I hope to provide guidance and resources to help others improve their predictions.

I am very excited to be involved in the Alt-Protein Tournament as I feel that having a better sense of how alternative proteins will affect the food system may be beneficial for investors, politicians, and protein companies, as well as for the general public. How and when the alternative protein industry will accomplish certain milestones remains unknown, but hopefully this tournament will provide some insights as to where the industry should best focus its efforts. It's clear that technological, regulatory, and societal breakthroughs will all be critical to creating a world without factory farming.

One question I’m particularly excited about is the Total US sales of plant-based meats in 2022. This relates to what I see when I go to the grocery store, and I hear people talk about this question at work. I think that the growth of plant-based meat retail sales in the next few years will shape how alternative protein products are adopted by retail companies, how accessible these products are to consumers, and how much investment will be put into alternative protein companies. Personally, my prediction (as of May 2021) is that it will be $2.3 billion based on expected growth rates. I'm looking forward to seeing what the community thinks!

I believe that alternative proteins will dominate the protein sector in the long run, but it likely won’t be an easy or straightforward path. There will be many hurdles that the industry will have to overcome. Although I am ashamed to have grown up during a time where people needlessly slaughter billions of animals to satisfy an unnecessary craving for protein, I am also glad that I am able to be part of the movement to transition the world to more humane, healthy, equitable, and sustainable forms of protein, and I look forward to a future without animal products.

I am more than happy to speak with anyone about any of the questions in this tournament or about alternative proteins in general. My username is jeffraybehr and I can be reached at jeffraybehr@gmail.com.

Happy forecasting!

Jeffray