Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Question suggestions for VA Lightning Tourney

{{qctrl.question.commentStr()}} {{qctrl.question.estimateReadingTime()}} min read
Healthy Communities Virginia Lightning Round Tournament

As part of the Virginia Lightning Round Tournament, we are soliciting question ideas from the community and will be highlighting the contributions of forecasters whose questions end up being asked. The goal of this tournament is to ask questions that might be useful toward improving the accuracy of COVID-19 models.

@RyanBeck got us started with the following suggestion, which is exactly the kind of thing we're looking for:

"forecasting the ratio of breakthrough cases and/or deaths might be useful, which VDH is tracking here. For cases and/or deaths I think the ratio of the 7 day moving average of breakthrough cases and/or deaths to the 7 day average of all cases and/or deaths at the desired end date would be a good metric and useful for understanding if vaccine efficacy is waning or not."