Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Public Figures: Christiano, Summers, and More

{{qctrl.question.commentStr()}} {{qctrl.question.estimateReadingTime()}} min read

New Public Figure Pages

Below are the most recently added Public Figure pages. Report predictions by these figures by clicking 'Report Prediction' on the Public Figure's page.

  • Marc Andreessen
    Marc Andreessen is an entrepreneur, investor, and software engineer. He is the co-founder of Netscape and the co-founder and general partner of venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz.

  • Paul Christiano
    Paul Christiano runs the Alignment Research Center and previously oversaw the language model alignment team at OpenAI.

  • Sarah Taber
    Sarah Taber is a crop and food safety scientist and is the founder of a caviar company Persephone.

  • Larry Summers
    Larry Summers is an American economist and served as the US Secretary of the Treasury from 1999 to 2001. He was also president of Harvard University from 2001 to 2006.

  • Mark Hertling
    Mark Hertling is a former US Army officer who served as the Commanding General of United States Army Europe and the Seventh Army.

  • Gideon Rachman
    Gideon Rachman is a journalist and the chief foreign affairs commentator of the Financial Times.

Public Figures Index

Is there a figure you would like to see added to this list?
You can propose new figures by commenting below, providing:

  • A direct quotation from the prediction news source
  • The name of the news source
  • A link to the news source
  • The prediction date
  • At least one related Metaculus question

Autocratic Leaders Public Figure Series

To create an accountable public record of statements made by anti-democratic regimes around the world, we've put together a new Public Figure prediction series.

Introducing Public Figure Predictions

Curious how accurate public figures are in their predictions and promises? Here, you can judge for yourself, with all the information you need at your fingertips. This is Public Figure Predictions, an experimental new feature on Metaculus that collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts.

Will Joe Biden indeed run for reelection, as he's stated? Is Elon Musk correct that SpaceX's deep-space rocket Starship will ferry passengers around the moon in 2023? Public Figure Predictions like these are collected under each public figure's page and link back to the news source for the claim, creating a transparent and legible record of how well a public figure's statements about the future track real-world outcomes, while creating additional context for any relevant Metaculus forecasts linked to the prediction.

To start interacting with Public Figure Predictions, select a figure from the list below to see their predictions. Each entry features a quotation from the news source that highlights the most salient and essential elements of the prediction. Do you know of another testable prediction this person has made? You can help to enhance public accountability by clicking Report Prediction to provide the needed details and submit your suggestion.

Each of these Public Figure Predictions can be linked to any number of Metaculus questions and forecasts. The ideal linked question resolves according to exactly the criteria established by the Public Figure Prediction, providing a direct means for evaluating whether the prediction held true.

For example, Joe Biden expressed that he plans to run for reelection. For this prediction, there is a Metaculus question that asks directly whether he will run. After such a one-to-one question has been established, however, additional relevant questions can be linked to offer further context or evidence relevant to a particular outcome. For example, Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024? is relevant while not overlapping completely with the Public Figure Prediction.

Did you see a Public Figure make a claim about what will happen in the future?
Navigate to that Public Figure's page and click Report Prediction to add the details of their prediction. You'll have the opportunity to also link any relevant Metaculus questions.

Do you have an idea for a Metaculus question relevant to a Public Figure Prediction?
Publish and link a new question by clicking Create a Linked Forecast on the prediction page.

Thank you for the thoughtful ideas and suggestions already provided, and we look forward to seeing how you interact with Public Figure Predictions!

For more details on how to use this tool and contribute to this project, click here.

Categories:
Metaculus Itself