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[Updated] Public Figure Predictions

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We've updated this discussion post in response to the community's excellent feedback, and we hope you'll continue to share your thoughts! This discussion post will see more updates as we continue the conversation and further refine this tool in order to make it a fantastic public accountability resource for the Metaculus community.

Curious how accurate public figures are in their predictions and promises? Here, you can judge for yourself, with all the information you need at your fingertips. This is Public Figure Predictions, an experimental new feature on Metaculus that collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts.

Will Joe Biden indeed run for reelection, as he's stated? Is Elon Musk correct that SpaceX's deep-space rocket Starship will ferry passengers around the moon in 2023? Public Figure Predictions like these are collected under each public figure's page and link back to the news source for the claim, creating a transparent and legible record of how well a public figure's statements about the future track real-world outcomes, while creating additional context for any relevant Metaculus forecasts linked to the prediction.

To start interacting with Public Figure Predictions, select a figure from the list below to see their predictions. Each entry features a quotation from the news source that highlights the most salient and essential elements of the prediction. Do you know of another testable prediction this person has made? You can help to enhance public accountability by clicking Report Prediction to provide the needed details and submit your suggestion.

Each of these Public Figure Predictions can be linked to any number of Metaculus questions and forecasts. The ideal linked question resolves according to exactly the criteria established by the Public Figure Prediction, providing a direct means for evaluating whether the prediction held true.

For example, Joe Biden expressed that he plans to run for reelection. For this prediction, there is a Metaculus question that asks directly whether he will run. After such a one-to-one question has been established, however, additional relevant questions can be linked to offer further context or evidence relevant to a particular outcome. For example, Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024? is relevant while not overlapping completely with the Public Figure Prediction.

Do you know a Metaculus question that should be linked to a Public Figure Prediction?
Click Linking an Existing Question from a given prediction's page to add it.

Do you have an idea for a Metaculus question relevant to a Public Figure Prediction?
Publish and link a new question by clicking Create a Linked Forecast on the prediction page.

Our Currently Featured Public Figures

Is there a figure you would like to see added to this list?
You can propose new figures by commenting below, providing:

  • A direct quotation from the prediction news source
  • The name of the news source
  • A link to the news source
  • The prediction date
  • At least one related Metaculus question

Once three submissions have been submitted and accepted for a figure, we will create a new Public Figure page.

Thank you for the thoughtful ideas and suggestions already provided, and we look forward to seeing how you interact with Public Figure Predictions!

For more details on how to use this tool and contribute to this project, click here.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

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