We’re excited to announce that Round 3 of the Nuclear Risk Tournament, developed in partnership with Rethink Priorities, is set to go live with questions released for forecasting each Thursday: November 11th, the 18th, and the 25th. Your forecasts on these questions will help to inform funding, policy, research, and career decisions with the ultimate goal of reducing the risk of catastrophic nuclear conflict.

If you haven’t participated yet, the tournament opened in June 2021 and includes many calibration questions that don’t resolve until early 2024, so there is still plenty of time for new forecasters to join!

This tournament will be one of the first to use the new Metaculus Tournament Scoring System. This means that forecasters will not be able to see the community median when a question opens. This hidden period will likely last around 20% of a question’s duration and participation during this time will completely determine a forecaster’s coverage. (We expect to set c_weight = 100%. See the tournament scoring link above for details.) Because of this front-weighted coverage, we will stagger when forecasting begins evenly over 3 weeks to spread out forecasting more evenly.

We greatly appreciate the contributions of all the forecasters who have made predictions so far. And, we’re interested to hear from you — leave your ideas, concerns, questions, or anything else you’d like to share that’s related to the project in the comments section below.

Happy Forecasting!