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Ukraine Conflict Challenge Discussion

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine represents Europe’s first major war in decades, with the potential to escalate into the most devastating conflict on the continent since World War II. Thousands of lives hang in the balance, and neighboring countries prepare for the possibility of hundreds of thousands of war refugees.

The Ukraine Conflict Challenge is a space for carefully considered forecasts and informative discussions meant to help the public and policymakers separate signal from noise. The Metaculus Community took seriously the prospect of Russian invasion earlier than most commentators, with a Community Prediction in mid-January that indicated invasion was more likely than not. We believe that credible forecasting can help point to and support opportunities for de-escalation.

Forecasts in this series will be updated over the coming days and weeks, and will cover a range of questions, including:

Begin forecasting in the Ukraine Conflict Challenge here.

Suggest additional questions for this challenge

What questions would be most useful for understanding the conflict’s potential impacts, and what questions would most support efforts to mitigate catastrophic outcomes? We’re asking the Metaculus Community to suggest in the comments below any additional questions that can be added to the Ukraine Conflict Challenge.