Metaculus is participating in COVID-19 Expert Surveys, in collaboration with researchers at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.

Each week we will be launching up to 8 questions in which the community will have 30 hours to lock in their predictions.

Researchers will concurrently distribute the same questions to some of the worlds leading infectious disease experts.

Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round (LRT2)?

This question resolves positively if the average log score for all continuous questions in the second round that resolve unambiguously is higher for the community prediction than for the Metaculus prediction, according to our Track record.