Iran has currently been accused of violating the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms.

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?

Question will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports.

For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.

For the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).

The deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution.

Purchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as "Yes".