Related Questions on Metaculus:

The Insurrection Act of 1807 is a United States federal law that empowers the U.S. president to call into service the U.S. Armed Forces and the National Guard under the following circumstances:

when requested by a state's legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state (§ 251),

to address an insurrection, in any state, which makes it impracticable to enforce the law (§ 252),

or to address an insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination or conspiracy, in any state, which results in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect said rights (§ 253).

The Act was first used by 1808 by Thomas Jefferson. It has been used at least 23 more times, most recently in 1992 by George H. W. Bush in response to the 1992 Los Angeles riots.

Recent events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, protests by both left-leaning and right-leaning movements, and the Capitol Hill attack, have raised the possibility of the Insurrection Act being invoked again.

Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?

This question will resolve as Yes if the US federal government invokes the Insurrection Act at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2025. No additional criteria are necessary for this question to resolve positively.

If positive resolution is triggered, and it is later determined by a court or judge that the invocation was invalid or illegal, that will have no bearing on the resolution of this question.