17:["$","$L1a",null,{"locale":"en","now":"$D2025-05-09T07:39:58.207Z","timeZone":"UTC","messages":{"createArticle":"+ Create Article","newsletterFormHeading":"Join Our Newsletter","newsletterFormDescription":"Sign up for Metaculus news, special forecasting reports, and event invitations.","predict":"Predict","withdraw":"Withdraw","withdrawForecast":"Withdraw Forecast","withdrawAll":"Withdraw All","saveChange":"Save Change","reaffirm":"Reaffirm","reaffirmAll":"Reaffirm All","rescalePrediction":"Auto-sum to 100%","signUpToPredict":"Sign Up to Predict","logIn":"Log in","tutorial":"Tutorial","logOut":"Log Out","tweetPrediction":"Tweet Prediction!","postPredictionAsComment":"Post Prediction as Comment","predictionUpcomingMessage":"This question is in the Upcoming stage, and will be open for predictions soon","predictionUnapprovedMessage":"This question must be approved by moderators before you can begin predicting","predictionClosedMessage":"This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved","predictionConditionalPartiallyClosedMessage":"The question \"{closedQuestion}\" has closed, so these conditionals are closed for forecasting. They will resolve when the question \"{activeQuestion}\" resolves.","resolve":"Resolve","unresolve":"Unresolve","preview":"Preview","updatePreviewButton":"Update Preview","postButton":"Post","loadMoreButton":"Load More","addComponentButton":"Add Component","addAnother":"Add another","addOption":"Add Option","adminEditButton":"admin edit","aggregationExplorer":"Aggregation Explorer","chooseAggregationsToInclude":"Choose aggregations to include (all included by default)","remove":"remove","removed":"removed","reply":"Reply","cancel":"Cancel","edit":"Edit","report":"Report","delete":"Delete","reject":"Reject","copyLink":"Copy Link","copyId":"Copy ID","continueButton":"Continue","submit":"Submit","submitTagsFeedback":"Submit Tags Feedback","discardChangesButton":"Discard Changes","discardAllChangesButton":"Discard All Changes","opens":"Opens","opened":"Opened","closes":"Closes","closed":"Closed","pending":"pending","resolves":"Resolves","resolved":"Resolved","spotScoingTime":"Spot Scoring Time","scheduledResolution":"Scheduled resolution","scheduledCloseTime":"scheduled close time","forDiscussion":"for discussion","Submitted":"Submitted","inReview":"In Review","Deferred":"Deferred","deleted":"Deleted","Draft":"Draft","Upcoming":"Upcoming","Open":"Open","Closed":"Closed","Resolved":"Resolved","count":"Count","image":"Image","resolutionAmbiguous":"Ambiguous","resolutionAnnulled":"Annulled","resolutionPending":"Pending resolution","resolution":"resolution","pendingResolution":"pending resolution","forecastTimelineHeading":"Forecast Timeline","totalPredictionsLabel":"Total Predictions","totalForecastersLabel":"Total Forecasters","cpRevealed":"Revealed","communityPredictionLabel":"Community Prediction","metaculusPredictionLabel":"Metaculus Prediction","userPredictionLabel":"User Prediction","myPrediction":"My Prediction","myPredictionPrevious":"My Prediction (previous)","myPredictionValue":"My Prediction: {forecastValue}","myCoverageLabel":"My Coverage","predictionLabel":"Prediction","pdfLabel":"Probability Density","cdfLabel":"Cumulative Probability","pdf":"PDF","cdf":"CDF","recencyWeighted":"Recency weighted","unweighted":"Unweighted","metaculus":"Metaculus","community":"community","communityPrediction":"Community Prediction","firstQuartile":"lower 25%","secondQuartile":"median","thirdQuartile":"upper 75%","you":"you","youPrevious":"you (previous)","overlayMostRecentForecast":"Overlay Most Recent Forecast","overlayCurrentForecast":"Overlay Current Forecast","resolutionDescriptionBinary":"Did this actually happen?","resolutionDescriptionMultipleChoice":"Which of these actually happened?","resolutionDescriptionContinuous":"What was the final result?","resolutionRelativeLogScore":"My relative log score:","resolutionAbsoluteLogScore":"My absolute log score:","communityAbsoluteLogScore":"Community absolute log score:","metaculusAbsoluteLogScore":"Metaculus absolute log score:","metaculusRelativeLogScore":"Metaculus relative log score:","myBaselineScore":"My Baseline Score","myPeerScore":"My Peer Score","mySpotBaselineScore":"My Spot Baseline Score","mySpotPeerScore":"My Spot Score","myRelativeLegacyScore":"My Relative Legacy Score","myRelativeLegacyArchivedScore":"My Relative Legacy Archived Score","communityBaselineScore":"Community Baseline Score","communityPeerScore":"Community Peer Score","communnitySpotBaselineScore":"Community Spot Baseline Score","communnitySpotPeerScore":"Community Spot Score","communnityRelativeLegacyScore":"Community Relative Legacy Score","communnityRelativeLegacyArchivedScore":"Community Relative Legacy Archived Score","myCoverage":"My coverage","myWeightedCoverage":"My weighted coverage","questionWillOpenAt":"This question will open {{date}}.","questionNotOpenYet":"This question is not yet open for predictions.","youMustLogInToComment":"You must log in to comment","commentsReadGuidelines":"Read our guidelines","commentsLearnMarkdown":"Learn about our Markdown","commentDeleted":"Comment deleted","commentsReportCommentHeading":"Report this comment","commentsReportCommentDescription":"Is there something wrong with this comment? Please help us keep our community great by reporting it.","commentsReportSpam":"Report as spam","commentsReportGuidelinesViolation":"Report as violating community guidelines","commentsMyPrediction":"My prediction","commentsReportSubmittedMessage":"Report submitted, thank you!","replied":"replied","commented":"commented","inReplyTo":"In reply to {author}","commentTooLateToUnvoteError":"Cannot undo votes on comments from previous calendar years","hide":"Hide","show":"Show","showMore":"Show More","showMoreTags":"Show more tags","showLess":"Show Less","showMoreNews":"Show More News","showMoreQuestions":"Show More Questions","showReplyWithCount":"show {count} replies","hideReplyWithCount":"hide {count} replies","now":"now","weight":"weight","recent":"recent","uniform":"uniform","median":"median","mean":"mean","scoreIfNo":"Score if No","scoreIfYes":"Score if Yes","ifNo":"if no","ifYes":"if yes","ifNO":"if No","ifYES":"if Yes","absoluteLogScore":"Absolute Log Score","brierScore":"Brier Score","yes":"yes","Yes":"Yes","no":"no","fanGraphFirstQuartileLabel":"25th percentile","fanGraphSecondQuartileLabel":"Median","fanGraphThirdQuartileLabel":"75th percentile","questionGroupTableFirstQuartileLabel":"25th","questionGroupTableSecondQuartileLabel":"median","questionGroupTableThirdQuartileLabel":"75th","finePrint":"Fine Print","hideSpoiler":"Hide spoiler","showSpoiler":"Show spoiler","commentHidden":"This comment has been hidden","notifyMe":"Notify Me","showCommunityPredictionByDefault":"Show Community Prediction by default on open questions","showCommunityPredictionIfPredicted":"Show Community Prediction if you've predicted","showCommunityPrediction":"Show Community Prediction","hideCommunityPrediction":"Hide Community Prediction","viewMetaculusPrediction":"View Metaculus Prediction","questionSearchPlaceholder":"search questions...","articlesSearchPlaceholder":"search articles...","tagSearchPlaceholder":"search tags...","search":"Search","searchFilterType":"Type","searchFilterForecastStatus":"Forecast Status","searchFilterParticipation":"My Participation","searchFilterOrderBy":"Order By","searchOptionAll":"All","searchOptionForecast":"Forecast","searchOptionDiscussion":"Discussion","searchOptionAllAccepted":"All Accepted","searchOptionPending":"Pending","searchOptionDeferred":"Deferred","searchOptionUnmoderated":"Unmoderated","searchOptionUpcoming":"Upcoming","searchOptionOpen":"Open","searchOptionClosed":"Closed","searchOptionResolved":"Resolved","searchOptionDraft":"Draft","searchOptionAny":"Any","searchOptionPredicted":"Predicted","searchOptionActivePrediction":"Active Prediction","searchOptionWithdrawnPrediction":"Withdrawn","searchOptionNotPredicted":"Not Predicted","searchOptionAuthored":"Authored","searchOptionUpvoted":"Upvoted","searchOptionPrivate":"Private","searchOptionModerating":"Moderating","searchOptionActivity":"Activity","searchOptionUpvotes":"Upvotes","searchOptionNewest":"Newest","searchOptionRecentlyOpened":"Recently Opened","searchOptionSoonestOpening":"Soonest Opening","searchOptionSoonestClosing":"Soonest Closing","searchOptionRecentlyClosed":"Recently Closed","searchOptionSoonestResolving":"Soonest Resolving","searchOptionRecentlyResolved":"Recently Resolved","searchOptionOldestPrediction":"Oldest Prediction","searchOptionRelevance":"Relevance","searchOptionFewestComments":"Fewest Comments","searchOptionDateSubmitted":"Date Submitted","createdBy":"Created by {{author}}","onDate":"on {date}","published":"Published","byAuthor":"Authored by {{author}}","estimatedReadingTime":"{minutes} min read","predictions":"Predictions","predictors":"Predictors","relativeLog":"Relative Log","unreadAll":"all unread","questionsLeft":"{count, plural, =1 {1 question left} other {{count} questions left} }","crowdMedian":"Crowd Median","respondCrowdMedian":"Please respond with your answer, then what you think the crowd median in this room will be.","commentsWithCount":"{count, plural, =0 {no comments} =1 {comment} other {comments} }","unreadWithCount":"{count, plural, =0 {no unread} other {unread} }","forecastersWithCount":"{count, plural, =1 {forecaster} other {forecasters} }","or":"or","signupInviteUsers":"Invite Users","signupInviteUsersDescription":"Enter the email addresses of users you would like to invite, separated by newlines. They will receive an invitation to sign up by email.","signupInviteEmailAddresses":"Email Addresses","signupInviteEmailAddressesPlaceholder":"Enter one email per line","signupInviteSendButton":"Send Invitations","signupInviteSuccess":"Invites have been sent","registrationHeadingPrediction":"Make your prediction count","registrationHeadingSite":"Create a Metaculus Account","registrationInfoParagraph1":"Register as a Metaculus user and you'll be able to:","registrationInfoParagraph2":"You can easily register by email or social media.","registrationInfoAbility1":"Keep track of your predictions and build a track record","registrationInfoAbility2":"Get notified when predictions that you care about change","registrationInfoAbility3":"Join the discussion with other forecasters","registrationInfoAbility4":"Create private questions to track personal predictions, and optionally share them with your friends","registrationInfoAbility5":"Write new public questions that you want to see answered","registrationFacebook":"Continue with Facebook","registrationGoogle":"Continue with Google","registrationByEmail":"Sign Up","emptyOptionError":"option can't be empty","errorRequired":"required field","errorMinLength":"{field} must be at least {minLength} characters","errorMaxLength":"{field} must be at most {maxLength} characters","errorPasswordMatch":"passwords must match","errorEmailInvalid":"not a valid email","errorGeneric":"Error, something went wrong. Please check your connection and try again or contact us at support@metaculus.com","registrationUsernamePlaceholder":"choose a username","passwordPlaceholder":"password","registrationVerifyPasswordPlaceholder":"verify password","registrationEmailPlaceholder":"email","registrationSignInHeading":"Already have an account?","loginSignUpHeading":"Don't have an account yet?","createAnAccount":"Sign Up","registrationSuccessHeading":"Activation Email Sent","registrationSuccess1":"Thanks for creating a Metaculus account !","registrationSuccess2":"An activation email has been sent to . Please follow the link inside to finish creating your account.","registrationTerms":"By registering, you acknowledge and agree to Metaculus's Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.","registrationTermsAgreement":"I agree — continue registration","loginFacebook":"Log in with Facebook","loginGoogle":"Log in with Google","loginUsernamePlaceholder":"username or email","forgotPasswordLink":"Forgot Password?","passwordResetHeading":"Password Reset","passwordResetDescription":"Enter your username and we'll send you an email to reset your password.","resetPasswordButton":"Reset Password","resetPasswordEmailSentHeading":"Password Reset Email Sent","resetPasswordEmailSent1":"Your password reset request has been successfully processed.","resetPasswordEmailSent2":"An email has been sent to the address on record for that account. Please follow the link inside to reset your password.","newPasswordLabel":"new password","verifyPasswordLabel":"verify password","metaculusSupporterHeading":"Metaculus Supporter","supporterSinceHeading":"Supporter Since","changeUsernameHeading":"Change your username","changeUsernameDescription":"You can change your username once every six months. Your old username will be listed as an alias in your profile for 30 days.","newUsernamePlaceholder":"new username","confirm":"Confirm","confirmUsernamePlaceholder":"confirm username","confirmUnresolveQuestion":"Are you sure you want to unresolve this question?","usernamesNotMatching":"usernames don't match","projectContents":"Project Contents","question":"Question","created":"Created","currentPasswordPlaceholder":"Enter current password...","newPasswordPlaceholder":"Enter new password...","verifyPasswordPlaceholder":"Verify new password...","updatePasswordButton":"Update Password","passwordChangeSuccess":"password successfully changed","setReminderHeading":"Schedule a notification","remindWhen":"Trigger","repeatingColumnTitle":"Repeating","repeatsNo":"No","repeatsYes":"Yes","remindOnDate":"On {{date}}","remindWhenOpens":"Question opens","remindWhenCPChanges":"Community Prediction changes 10%","remindWhenNeedsResolution":"Question needs resolution","remindWhenPrcLifetime":"{{percent}}% of question lifetime elapsed","remindWhenTimeElapsed":"On {{date}}","noReminder":"(no scheduled notifications)","setReminderDescription":"Get email notifications when important updates happen.","selectTriggerLabel":"Select trigger","reminderOptionDate":"On date","reminderOptionTimeElapsed":"Time elapsed","reminderOptionNewComments":"New comments","reminderOptionNeedsResolution":"Question needs resolution","reminderOptionCPChanges":"Community prediction changes","reminderOptionQuestionOpens":"Question opens","reminderOptionQuestionLifetime":"Question lifetime percentage","loadingRemindersError":"Could not load the notification","removingReminderError":"Could not remove the notification","removeReminderConfirmation":"Do you really want to remove this notification?","newReminderSuccess":"Notification has been scheduled","newReminderError":"Error, notification has not been scheduled","reminderErrorTypeRequired":"Please select a trigger","reminderErrorDateRequired":"Please select a date","reminderErrorNotifyInThePast":"We cannot notify you in the past (yet)","reminderErrorNumberOfCommentsRequired":"To reduce spam, we cannot notify you for less than 1 comment","reminderErrorNumberOfCommentsTooBig":"The number of comments should be less than 100","reminderErrorPercentLifetimeRequired":"Please set a percent of lifetime","reminderErrorPercentLifetimeCannotHappen":"This would result in no notification, please select a lower value","reminderErrorPercentLifetimeWouldNotRepeat":"This would result in no repetition. Consider switching to \"Doesn't Repeat\"","reminderNotePlaceholder":"Write yourself a note...","reminderCPChangesDescription1":"Notify me when the forecast changes by more than 10%","reminderCPChangesDescription2":"For continuous questions, this is measured by a Kolmogorov–Smirnov test.","reminderDateDescription":"Notify me on","reminderNewCommentsDescription1":"Notify me after ","reminderNewCommentsDescription2_one":"new comment","reminderNewCommentsDescription2_few":"new comment","reminderNewCommentsDescription2_other":"new comments","reminderNewCommentsDescription2":"new comments","reminderQResolutionDescription":"Notify me when this question needs resolution","reminderPercentLifeDescription1":"Notify me when","reminderPercentLifeDescription2":"% of the question lifetime has elapsed","reminderPercentLifeCurrentValue":"This question is currently at {{percent}} % of its lifetime","reminderTimeElapsedDescription":"Notify me in","reminderTimeElapsedADay":"a day","reminderTimeElapsedAWeek":"a week","reminderTimeElapsedAMonth":"a month","reminderTimeElapsedAYear":"a year","reminderPercentLifetimeDescription":"Notify after x percent of question lifetime","submitReminderButton":"Schedule","reminderLabelNoRepeat":"Doesn't repeat","reminderLabelRepeat":"Repeats","reminderLabelDaily":"Daily","reminderLabelWeekly":"Weekly","reminderLabelMonthly":"Monthly","reminderLabelAnnually":"Annually","yourScheduledNotifications":"Your scheduled notifications for this question","trackRecordNoUserPredictions":"None of your predictions have resolved yet! Make more predictions to build up your track record.","mpExplanation":"You have special access to see the Metaculus Prediction early.","cpVisibilitySettingOn":"You've hidden the Community Prediction in your <2>settings","cpInHiddenPeriod":"The Community Prediction will be <2>revealed ","duration":"duration","ending":"ending","forecasts":"Forecasts","user":"User","viewProfile":"View Profile","total":"Total","average":"Average","score":"Score","coverage":"Coverage","totalCoverage":"Total Coverage","totalScore":"Total Score","totalTake":"Total Take","weightedAverageScore":"Weighted Average Score","hIndex":"H-Index","upvotes":"Upvotes","forecasters":"Forecasters","forecaster":"Forecaster","comment":"Comment","questionType":"Question Type","unsupportedQuestionType":"Unsupported question type","questionStatus":"Question Status","similarQuestions":"Similar Questions","category":"Category","tags":"Tags","tagFilter":"Tag: {tag}","questionAuthor":"Question Author","questionAuthorFilter":"Author: {author}","myParticipation":"My Participation","year":"year","years":"years","error":"Error","loading":"Loading","leaderboards":"Leaderboards","binary":"Binary","conditional":"conditional","group":"Group","multipleChoice":"Multiple Choice","continuous":"Continuous","baselineScore":"Baseline Score","baselineAccuracy":"Baseline Accuracy","baselineAccuracyShort":"Baseline Accuracy","peerScore":"Peer Score","peerAccuracy":"Peer Accuracy","peerAccuracyShort":"Peer Accuracy","insight":"Insight","questionWriting":"Question Writing","questionWritingShort":"Question Writing","relativeAccuracy":"Relative Accuracy","absoluteAccuracy":"Absolute Accuracy","rank":"Rank","outOfRank":"out of {total}","comments":"Comments","questions":"Questions","leaderboardQuestions":"Leaderboard Questions","viewMore":"View more...","randomQuestion":"Random Question","notebooks":"Notebooks","otherWithCount":"{count, plural, =1 {# other} other {# others} }","feedHome":"Feed Home","topics":"Topics","categories":"categories","Categories":"Categories","seeAllCategories":"See all categories","toggleAllTopics":"Toggle all topics","Filter":"Filter","done":"done","clear":"clear","predicted":"Predicted","notPredicted":"Not predicted","author":"Author","authorWithCount":"{count, plural, =1 {Author} other {Authors} }","actions":"actions","questionWeight":"Question Weight","questionWeightTooltip":"This question has a weight of {weight}%, providing {count, plural, =1 {{weightDiff}% fewer points} other {a {weightDiff}% point boost}} compared to regular Metaculus questions.","includeBots":"Include Bots","includeBotsTooltip":"For this question, bot forecasts contribute to the Community Prediction. Learn more about AI Benchmarking","authored":"Authored","upvoted":"Upvoted","moderating":"Moderating","moderatedBy":"Moderated by","visibility":"Visibility","public":"Public","unlisted":"Unlisted","draft":"Draft","private":"Private","hot":"Hot","movers":"Movers","new":"New","oldest":"Oldest","newest":"Newest","stale":"Stale","newComments":"New Comments","commentTooShort":"Your comment is too short. Try adding more details or insights so it adds value to the conversation.

Check our Guidelines for more information.","divergence":"Divergence","myPredictions":"My Predictions","special":"Special","personal":"Personal","myQuestionsAndPosts":"My Questions & Posts","mostUpvotes":"Most Upvotes","mostComments":"Most Comments","totalComments":"Total Comments","mostPredictions":"Most Predictions","closingSoon":"Closing Soon","closingTime":"Closing Time","resolvingTime":"Resolving Time","bestScores":"Best Scores","worstScores":"Worst Scores","resolvingSoon":"Resolving Soon","unreadComments":"Unread Comments","oldestPredictions":"My Oldest Predictions","newestPredictions":"My Newest Predictions","recentPredictions":"Recent predictions","myDivergence":"My Divergence","profile":"Profile","changeUsernameButton":"change username","markUserAsSpamButton":"Mark User as Spam","markUserAsSpam?":"Are you sure you want to mark this user as spam?","memberSince":"Member Since","bio":"Bio","website":"Website","profileBioPlaceholder":"Tell us a little about yourself.","username":"username","introducingCommunities":"Introducing Communities – a new feature where members create, discuss, and resolve their own questions on various topics. Follow your favorite communities to stay informed, and contribute to forecasts in areas that matter to you.","introducingCommunitiesContact":"Want to create your own Community? Reach out to get started.","noOpenCommunityQuestions":"Your community currently does not have any questions open for forecasting","noUpcomingCommunityQuestions":"Your community currently does not have any upcoming questions","noClosedCommunityQuestions":"No closed questions yet","noResolvedCommunityQuestions":"No questions resolved yet","noReviewCommunityQuestions":"No questions in review yet","noResults":"No results found","noTags":"No tags found","homeTitle":"Forecasting for a complex world","homeDescription":"Metaculus offers trustworthy forecasting and modeling infrastructure for forecasters, decision makers, and the public.","forecastsSearchPlaceholder":"Search Metaculus","focusAreasTitle":"Focus Areas","focusAreasDescription":"We create forecasts and advance research, decision making, and policy in four main topic areas.","seeForecasts":"See Forecasts","tournaments":"Tournaments","joinTournaments":"Join our tournaments and predict real world events, timelines, and impacts and win prizes for accuracy.","tournamentsHero1":"Help the global community model, understand, and navigate the world’s most important and complex challenges.","tournamentsHero2":"Prove your forecasting abilities, support effective policy and decision-making, and win cash prizes.","tournamentsHero3":"Learn how tournaments are scored.","tournamentsHero4":"Reach out to discuss launching a tournament on what’s important to you.","ActiveTournaments":"Active Tournaments","Indexes":"Indexes","Index":"Index","Tournament":"Tournament","QuestionSeries":"Question Series","Archive":"Archive","prizePool":"prize pool","prize":"Prize","percentPrize":"% Prize","questionCount":"{count, plural, =1 {# Question} other {# Questions} }","closesOn":"Closes ","closedOn":"Closed ","highestPrizePool":"Highest Prize Pool","endingSoon":"Ending Soon","changePasswordButton":"Change Password","formerlyKnownAs":"Formerly Known As","StartDate":"Start Date","EndDate":"End Date","SeriesContents":"Series Contents","makePrediction":"Make a Prediction","Title":"Title","Access":"Access","save":"Save","discard":"Discard","saveChanges":"Save Changes","saveAllChanges":"Save All Changes","Candidates":"Candidates","followingCommunities":"Communities You’re Following","allCommunities":"All communities","otherCommunities":"Other communities","browserAllCommunities":"Browse all communities","communities":"Communities","backTo":"Back to","sendBackToDrafts":"Send back to Drafts","approve":"Approve","apply":"Apply","postQuestionApproval":"Question Approval","postNotebookApproval":"Notebook Approval","postQuestionApprovalSubtitle":"Make any necessary adjustments to the general settings for each question in this section.","postGroupOfQuestionsApprovalSubtitle":"Set the Open Time and CP Reveal Time for all subquestions. You can adjust these settings for individual questions later during editing.","postNotebookApprovalSubtitle":"Are you sure you want to approve this notebook?","questionApprovalSubtitle":"Make any necessary adjustments to the general settings for each question in this section.","submitForReview":"Submit for review","seeAllTournaments":"See All Tournaments","seeAllForecasts":"See All Forecasts","seeMorePosts":"See More Posts","documentation":"documentation","apiAcessText":"You may use an API token to access the Metaculus API, per our","apiAccess":"API Access","showApiToken":"Show API token","copyApiToken":"Copy API Token","copiedApiTokenMessage":"API token has been copied to your clipboard","yourAPITokenIs":"Your API token is:","about":"About","api":"API","otherInitiatives":"Other Initiatives","forecasting":"Forecasting","forecastingResources":"forecasting resources","forjournalists":"Metaculus for Journalists","careers":"Careers","engageWith":"Engage with","guidelines":"Guidelines","privacyPolicy":"Privacy Policy","termsOfUse":"Terms of Use","faq":"FAQ","contact":"Contact","contactUs":"Contact Us","thankYouForGettingInTouch":"Thank you for getting in touch. We’ll get back to you soon!","yourEmail":"Your Email","yourMessage":"Your message...","news":"News","newsMatch":"News Match","create":"create","login":"Login","logout":"Logout","admin":"Admin","aboutMetaculus":"About Metaculus","aboutMetaculusTitle":"About Metaculus","aboutMetaculusDescription":"Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance.","more":"More","moreLikely":"percentage points higher","afterElection":"under {winner}","ifCandidateElected":"if {candidate} elected","electoralConsequences":"Electoral Consequences","forJournalists":"For Journalists","trackRecord":"Track Record","medals":"Medals","metaculusTrackRecord":"Metaculus Track Record","trackRecordOutdatedMessage":"This track record does not yet use the new Baseline and Peer scores introduced in November 2023. Updating this page is one of our next priorities.","trackRecordShowStatistics":"A Track Record shows some statistics about the predictor's performance.","theJournal":"The Journal","account":"Account","settings":"Settings","shortTitle":"Short Title","boost":"Boost","bury":"Bury","duplicate":"Duplicate","downloadQuestionData":"Download Question data","partnersUseForecasts":"Our partners use Metaculus forecasts to gain insight into complex challenges and decisions.","learnHowYouCanPartner":"Learn how you can partner with Metaculus to host a forecasting tournament, collaborate on forecasting research, hire our Pro Forecasters for custom projects, or set up a private forecasting space for your organization.","workingWithNonProfits":"We love working with non-profits in our core focus areas. If you’re a non-profit seeking forecasting and modeling capacity or are interested in collaborating on a grant, please reach out!","reachOutToLearnMore":"Please reach out to learn more about working with Metaculus or with any questions, comments or concerns. We’ll get back to you soon.","feelFreeToJustSayHello":"Feel free to just say hello, too - we love hearing from the forecasting community!","contentBoosted":"Content boosted! value {score} activity. Total boost score for the week: {score_total}","contentBuried":"Content buried! value {score} activity. Total boost score for the week: {score_total}","downloadQuestionDataError":"Error downloading Question data","cpRevealTime":"CP Reveal Time","postPublishTime":"Post Publish Time","openTime":"Open Time","Question":"Question","initialValueByWriter":"Initial value set by question writer.","initialValueByWriterOverwrite":"Initial value set by question writer: overwrite to this value.","noValueSetByWriter":"No value set by question writer.","onlySetForSubquestions":"Will only set for sub-questions that do not have this field pre-set.","editOpenAndCpRevealTimes":"Edit Open & CP Reveal Times","noQuestionsResolved":"No questions have resolved yet in this period.","duration:":"Duration:","timePeriod":"Time Period:","inReviewBox1":"You are welcome to participate in our review process by voting and commenting on questions during their development.","inReviewBox2":"Questions that achieve a positive vote balance will be prioritized for Admin review and approval.","inReviewBox3":"Questions that receive a significant number of negative votes will be rejected by default.","inReviewBox4":"Please refer to our Question writing guidelines to learn what makes a good question.","learnMoreAboutNewsMatch":"Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch","learnMoreAboutQuestionWriting":"Learn more about question writing","inReviewBoxTitle":"Participate in the review process","userProfile":"{username}'s profile","unknownUserProfile":"User's profile","userMedals":"{username}'s medals","unknownUserMedals":"User's medals","noMedals":"No medals yet","leaderboard":"Leaderboard","openLeaderboard":"Open Leaderboard","live":"Live","liveLeaderboardDisclaimer":"This is a live leaderboard; rankings may change on a daily basis.","legacyPeerDisclaimer":"The Peer Accuracy leaderboards used slightly different math before 2024. See details here.","namesPrediction":"{username}'s Prediction","includeMyForecast":"include your current forecast in this comment","privateComment":"private comment","groupVariable":"Group Variable","questionUnit":"Question Unit","subquestionUnit":"Subquestion Unit","questionUnitDescription":"Unit is displayed alongside median and in various other places. Examples: “$”, “Cases”, “People”.","advancedOptionsDescription":"These options are not required. Moderators will generally fill these out at the time of approval.","publishTimeDescription":"Time this question will become visible to the public.","closingTimeDescription":"When this question will be closed for predictions.","resolvingTimeDescription":"When you expect the resolution of this question to be known.","cpRevealTimeDescription":"Time when the Community Prediction will become visible.","showFullForecast":"...show full forecast","closeFullForecast":"close full forecast","noComments":"no comments","overview":"Overview","links":"links","location":"location","occupation":"occupation","take":"Take","confirmPageLeaveMessage":"Are you sure you want to leave this page?","deletedAuthor":"deleted author","myScore":"My Score","peerScoreInfo":"Your Peer Score on that question. If you see no score, then either the question has yet to resolve or you haven’t predicted it (or both!).","spotPeerScoreInfo":"Your Spot Peer Score on that question. If you see no score, then either the question has yet to resolve or you haven’t predicted it (or both!).","scoringTerminology":"Scoring Terminology","totalPeerScoreInfo":"The question-weighted sum of your Peer Scores on all questions in the tournament (but only those that close before the end of the tournament).","totalSpotPeerScoreInfo":"The question-weighted sum of your Spot Peer Scores on all questions in the tournament (but only those that close before the end of the tournament).","manualScoreInfo":"This is a manually updated Leaderbaord. Check details for how performance is measured.","peerTakeInfo":"Your Take is the square of the question-weighted sum of your peer scores or 0 if your total score is negative.","spotPeerTakeInfo":"Your Take is the square of the question-weighted sum of your spot peer scores or 0 if your total score is negative.","relativeScoreInfo":"Your Relative Score on that question. If you see no score, then either the question has yet to resolve or you haven’t predicted it (or both!).","totalRelativeScoreInfo":"The question-weighted sum of your Relative Scores on all questions in the tournament (but only those that close before the end of the tournament).","relativeCoverageInfo":"The amount of the question or tournament that you covered.","questionWeightInfo":"The weight of the question in the tournament. The score you earn from this question is multiplied by this weight.","relativeTakeInfo":"Your Take is your coverage times e to the power of your total score. (c*e^s)","backgroundInfo":"Background Info","parentBackgroundInfo":"Parent Question Background Info","childBackgroundInfo":"Child Question Background Info","histogram":"Histogram","histogramAfterPrediction":"Histograms will be revealed once you submit your prediction.","frequency":"Frequency","brierScoreForPlayer":"Brier scores for player predictions","scoreHistogram":"Score Histogram","scoreScatterPlot":"Score Scatter Plot","expand":"Expand","collapse":"Collapse","details":"Details","resolutionCriteria":"Resolution Criteria","parentResolutionCriteria":"Parent Resolution Criteria","childResolutionCriteria":"Child Resolution Criteria","loadMoreComments":"Load more comments","followers":"Followers","followed":"Followed","followButton":"Follow","followingButton":"Following","unfollowButton":"Unfollow","customiseButton":"Customise","manageCommunityButton":"Manage Community","communityManagement":"Community Management","followModalCustomiseButton":"Customise","followModalUnfollowButton":"Unfollow","followModalYouAreFollowingThisQuestion":"You're now following this question!","followModalYouAreFollowingThisGroup":"You're now following this group!","followModalYouAreFollowingThisNotebook":"You're now following this notebook!","followModalSuccessMessageDefaultNotificationQuestion":"You'll be notified of new comments, changes to the Community Prediction, every time 20% of the question lifetime has passed, and when the question opens, closes, or resolves.","followModalSuccessMessageDefaultNotificationGroup":"You'll be notified of new comments, changes to the Community Prediction, every time 20% of the group lifetime has passed, and when the group opens, closes, or resolves.","followModalSuccessMessageDefaultNotificationNotebook":"You'll receive notifications about new comments on this Notebook.","followModalNotifyMe":"Notify me","followModalEveryComment":"every comment","followModalEveryNComments":"every {n} comments","followModalSmallChanges":"small changes","followModalMediumChanges":"medium changes","followModalLargeChanges":"large changes","followModalNotifyMeFor":"Notify me for","followModalNotifyMeEvery":"Notify me every","followModalMilestoneLifetimeParagraphQuestion":"of the question lifetime, and when it opens, closes, or resolves.","followModalMilestoneLifetimeParagraphGroup":"of the group lifetime, and when it opens, closes, or resolves.","followModalReminderThisQuestionOpened":"Reminder: this question opened on {published_at} and closed on {scheduled_close_time}","followModalCustomiseNotifications":"Customise notifications","followModalCustomiseNotificationsParagraph":"Configure email notifications when important updates happen.","followModalCommunityPredictionChanges":"Community Prediction changes","followModalMilestones":"Milestones","followModalMilestonesNotifyEvery":"{pct} of the question lifetime","followModalSpecificTime":"Specific time","followModalStatusChanges":"Status changes","unfollowModalTitle":"Are you sure?","unfollowModalDescription":"You won't be notified about this question anymore","best":"best","cmmButton":"Changed my mind","cmmUpdateButton":"Update","cmmUpdatePredictionLink":"Update your prediction?","updateYourPrediction":"Update your prediction","democrat":"democrat","republican":"republican","numVotes":"{num} votes","stateByStateForecasts":"State-by-State Forecasts","republicanElectoralVote":"Republican Electoral Vote","democratElectoralVote":"Democrat Electoral Vote","electionHubDisclaimer":"Currently, our map focuses only on the battleground states outlined in this question. We marked some states “Safe Democrat” or “Safe Republican” based on historical election data. If you believe we should include forecasts for more states, let us know!","shareOnFacebook":"Share on Facebook","shareOnTwitter":"Share on Twitter","shareInComment":"Share in comment","youPredicted":"You predicted","embed":"embed","share":"share","270VotesToWin":"270 votes to win","expectedElectoralVotes":"Expected Electoral Votes","electoralVotes":"Electoral Votes","0Votes":"0 Votes","538Votes":"538 Votes","electionHubDescription":"Explore Metaculus forecasts for the 2024 US presidential election","2024USElectionHub":"2024 US Election Hub","safeParty":"Safe {party}","partyWinProbability":"{party} Win Probability ↗","settingsPreferences":"Preferences","settingsSubscriptions":"Subscriptions","nTriggers":"{n} triggers","settingsQuestionNotifications":"Question Notifications","settingsEmailNotifications":"Email Notifications","settingsUserEmail":"User Email","settingsNewEmail":"New Email","settingsNewQuestionsInTournament":"New questions in tournaments I follow","settingsEmailChangeDescription":"Enter a new email address and a password, and we'll send you a link to change your email.","settingsChangeEmailAddress":"Change email address","settingsChangeEmailAddressSuccess":"A confirmation email has been sent to your new address. Please follow the link inside to activate it.","settingsMentionsInComments":"Mentions in comments","settingsQuestionResolution":"Resolved Questions","settingsSignificantMovementOnPredictedQuestions":"Significant movement on predicted questions","settingsSignificantMovementOnPredictedQuestionsTooltip":"You will receive a notification email when the Community Prediction changes by more than 10% on any question you've predicted. Emails are batched every hour.","newsLetter":"Newsletter","research":"Research","updates":"Updates","posts":"posts","notebook":"notebook","existingQuestion":"Existing Question","questionId":"Question ID","addQuestion":"Add Question","addExistingQuestion":"Add Existing Question","existingQuestionExample":"Add an existing Metaculus question to your Community","notebookExample":"text-based content that is not a question","conditionalPair":"conditional pair","conditionalPairExample":"If it rains today, will it rain tomorrow?","dateGroup":"date group","dateGroupExample":"When will it rain for the following cities?","numericGroup":"numeric group","numericGroupExample":"How much will it rain for these cities?","binaryGroup":"binary group","binaryGroupExample":"Will it rain in these cities today?","binaryQuestion":"binary question","binaryQuestionExample":"Will it rain today?","numericQuestion":"numeric question","numericRange":"numeric range","numericRangeExample":"How much rain next month?","dateRange":"date range","dateRangeExample":"When will it rain?","multipleChoiceExample":"Which city will get the most rain?","questionGroup":"question group","singleQuestion":"single question","createNewContent":"create new content","onlyRegisterUserCanCreate":"Only registered users can create new questions. Sign in or register a new account now!","createQuestionDescription1":"Check out our question writing guide for tips. Good questions are approved faster, and get more predictions. If you just have an idea, or don't want to fill out the whole submission form, post your idea in our suggestion thread.","createQuestionDescription2":"We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.","binaryQuestionDescription":"Binary questions are generally of the form \"Will X happen?\" They either resolve as Yes or No.","multipleChoiceDescription":"Multiple choice questions are generally of the form \"Which of the following will happen?\". These questions list many options, only one of which can resolve as true.","dateRangeDescription":"A date question asks when something will happen, given a specific time window.","numericRangeDescription":"A numeric question asks about a quantity or number which will be known at a future date.","viewInDjangoAdmin":"View in django admin","pinComment":"Pin","pinned":"Pinned","commentPinned":"Comment pinned","unpinComment":"Unpin","commentUnpinned":"Comment unpinned","finePrintDescription":"Optional: Use the fine print for any sort of lawyerly details which don't need to be prominently displayed.","createQuestion":"create question","editQuestion":"Save Edits","longTitle":"long title","longTitleExplanation":"A single sentence that encapsulates what you're trying to predict. Ends in a question mark.","shortTitleExplanation":"This should be a shorter version of the Long Title, used where there is less space to display a title. It should end with a question mark. Examples: \"NASA 2022 spacesuit contract winner?\" or \"EU GDP from 2025 to 2035?\"","backgroundInformation":"Background Information","backgroundInfoExplanation":"Provide background information for your question in a factual and unbiased tone. Links should be added to relevant and helpful resources using markdown syntax: [Link title](https://link-url.com).","resolutionCriteriaExplanation":"A good question will almost always resolve unambiguously. If you have a data source by which the question will resolve, link to it here. If there is some simple math that will need to be done to resolve this question, define the equation in markdown: \\[ y = ax^2+b \\].","closingDate":"closing date","resolvingDate":"resolving date","choices":"Choices","choicesSeparatedBy":"Choices (separated by ,)","projects":"projects","FABPrizePool":"PRIZE POOL","FABPrizeValue":"$$30,000","FABStartDate":"START DATE","FABEndDate":"ENDED ON","FABStartDateJuly8":"July 8","FABStartDateOct8":"October 8","FABStartDateJan20":"January 20","FABStartDateApr21":"April 21","FABEndDateSep30":"September 30","FABEndDateDec31":"December 31","FABdesc1":"Compete with API credits provided courtesy of OpenAI and Anthropic.","FABdesc2":"Features Multiple Choice, Numeric, and Binary questions.","FABdesc3":"New questions open once every 2hr for most the week and continue through the night, to build confidence that there is no human in the loop.","FABRulesTitle":"Basic rules","FABRulesRule1":"No human in the loop","FABRulesRule2":"Bots must post a comment explaining reasoning alongside each forecast","FABRulesRule3":"One bot per user","FABRulesRule4":"Bot makers must be willing to share code or a description of how their bot works, and allow a member of Metaculus to inspect their code.","FABdesc4":"Bot performance benchmarked against the Metaculus community and Metaculus Pro Forecasters.","FABHeroTitle":"AI Forecasting","FABHeroSubtitle":"Benchmark Series","FABHeroDesc":"Benchmarking the state of the art in AI forecasting against the best humans on real-world questions.","FABGettingStarted":"Getting Started","FABRegisterBot":"Register your bot for the tournament","FABCreateBot":"Create a Bot Account","FABSeparateBotAccount":"Your bot needs a separate Metaculus account. Make sure to log out of your main account and come back to this page.","FABBotRegistered":"Your bot is successfully registered for the tournament.","FABShowToken":"Show My Token","FABTournamentPage":"The Questions","FABHowItWorks":"Getting Started","FABCreateBotAccount":"Create a Bot Account","FABBotAlreadyCreated":"Create a bot account to participate. If you already have one, close this window, click the 'Log in' button in the upper-right corner of this page, and log in with your bot account.","FABTokenInfo":"Your token is needed for your bot to interact with the Metaculus API.","FABQ3Conclude":"Q3 is concluded, but Q4 is underway.","FABQ4Conclude":"2025's Q2 tournament is underway!","FABQ3ConcludeButton":"Click to learn more and get started","FABQ4Start":"Q4 has started, but the Q3 tournament has concluded! Click for the final rankings.","FABQ1Start":"Check out the final rankings for last year's Q4 tournament!","inReviewStatusBox1":"This question now needs to be approved by a Metaculus Moderator. Questions that conform to our Question Writing Guidelines, and concern one of our core topics, have better chances of being approved, and faster.","inReviewStatusBox2":"All Metaculus users are encouraged to give feedback on questions during Review, and upvote the questions they find interesting and/or well written. Questions with a positive vote balance will receive priority attention from Administrators. Questions with a significantly negative vote balance will be rejected by default.","inReviewStatusBox4":"Note that this question cannot be approved until both its parent and child have been approved.","inReviewStatusBox5":"This question now needs to be approved by an administrator. You can notify administrators by tagging @admins in a comment.","inCommunityReviewStatus1":"This question needs approval from a Community curator like you. You can also make edits, tag the author in a comment below, send the question back to Drafts for revision, or reject the question.Some suggestions for high-quality questions:","inCommunityReviewStatus2":"

Define terms and be concrete. Links are helpful.

Questions should be simple to resolve and not require a great deal of admin effort.

The title and wording of the question should align with the resolution criteria.

Try this test: People in the future agree on how this question resolved. If they can’t, it may need clarification

","draftStatusBox1":"Your submission is now a Draft.","draftStatusBox2":"Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!","draftStatusBox3":"Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by administrators. Thank you!","newSubquestion":"new subquestion","bulkEdit":"Bulk Edit","bulkEditDescription":"Edit question attributes in bulk.","subquestionDetails":"subquestion details","subquestions":"subquestions","binaryQuestionGroup":"binary question group","binaryQuestionGroupDescription":"Binary question groups contain questions that generally have the form \"Will X happen?\" and resolve as Yes or No.","numericQuestionGroup":"numeric question group","numericQuestionGroupDescription":"Numeric question groups contain questions that ask about the value of an unknown future quantity and resolve within a specified range.","dateQuestionGroup":"date question group","dateQuestionGroupDescription":"Date question groups contain questions that ask when something will happen and resolve within a specified date range.","groupVariableDescription":"What the subquestion labels represent (e.g. year, country, etc).","categoryPickerDescription":"A name for the parameter which varies between subquestions, like \"Option\", \"Year\" or \"Country\"","subquestionLabel":"Subquestion label","subquestionLabelDescription":"The label or parameter which identifies this subquestion, like \"Option 1\", \"2033\" or \"France\"","conditionalPairDescription":"A Conditional Pair is a special type of Question Group that elicits conditional probabilities. Each Conditional Pair sits between a Parent Question and a Child Question. The Parent must be a binary question, while the child may be a single binary, numeric, or date question.","parentQuestion":"Parent Question","parentInputDescription":"Please either search for the title of a binary question, or enter the URL. If selecting a subquestion from a group, please enter the full URL e.g. /questions/123/?sub-question=456","childQuestion":"Child Question","childInputDescription":"Please either search for the title of a binary, numeric, or date question or enter the URL. Multiple Choice coming soon. If selecting a subquestion from a group, please enter the full url e.g. /questions/123/?sub-question=456","enterQuestionIdUrl":"Please enter the URL/ID of an existing Metaculus question.","isDoneError":"Cannot edit closed, resolved or rejected questions","editNotebook":"edit notebook","createNotebook":"create notebook","metaculusOnTwitter":"Metaculus on Twitter","metaculusOnDiscord":"Metaculus on Discord","signUpAsBot":"Sign Up as Bot","failedToCopyText":"failed to copy text: ","resolutionLabel":"Resolution:","totalQuestions":"Total questions:","averageScore":"Average score:","medianScore":"Median Score:","communityPredictionCalibration":"Community Prediction calibration","communityPredictionBaselineScore":"Community Prediction Baseline score","confidenceInterval":"confidence interval","perfectCalibration":"perfect calibration","perfectCalibration90CI":"perfect calibration 90% CI","userCalibration":"{username}'s calibration","userPeerScore":"{username}'s Peer Score","userPrediction":"{username}'s prediction","fractionResolvedYes":"Fraction resolved yes","scatterPlotHoverMessage":"Hover over a circle to see how that question resolved.","calibrationCurve":"Calibration Curve","calibrationCurveInfoMain":"The Calibration Curve only takes into account forecasts for binary questions that have resolved in the last 5 years and whose scheduled resolution date has passed. The x-axis shows prediction ranges (e.g. 17.5% - 22.5%) and the y-axis shows the actual \"Yes\" resolution rate for within each range. Yellow diamonds represent these observed rates. The gray lines along the diagonal (y=x) are what you would get by forecasting the \"true\" probability on a large number of questions. The shaded area is the 90% credible interval around the perfect calibration, the width of which depends on how many predictions the forecaster has made in that x-axis range. If the forecaster had been perfectly calibrated, the diamond would have been in that range 90% of the time.","calibrationCurveInfo":"The closer a diamond is to the grey line, the better calibrated the predictions in that probability range. If a diamond is closer to y=50% than the grey bar, that suggests the forecaster is overconfident.","condition":"condition","facebook":"Facebook","xTwitter":"X / Twitter","copyFromBranch":"copy from {branch}","parentResolvesAsYes":"Parent Resolves as Yes","parentResolvesAsNo":"Parent Resolves as No","othersCount":"{count} others","selectAll":"select all","deselectAll":"deselect all","forecastDataIsEmpty":"Forecast data is empty","noForecastsYet":"No forecasts yet","RevealTemporarily":"Reveal Temporarily","CPIsHidden":"Community Prediction is hidden","createdByUserOnDate":"Created by {user} on {date}","edited":"edited","tournamentHidePostsToMainFeed":"Hide tournament posts in main feed","me":"me","forecastDisclaimer":"Based on {predictionCount} predictions by {forecasterCount} forecasters","embedCodeSnippet":"You can use the below code snippet to embed this page on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.","embedThisPage":"embed this page","selectATheme":"Select a theme","selectAGraphZoom":"Select a graph zoom","light":"light","dark":"dark","all":"all","2m":"2m","1w":"1w","1d":"1d","errorDeletingComment":"error deleting comment:","numeric":"numeric","date":"date","filterBy":"filter by","closeFilter":"close filter","biosecurity":"biosecurity","biosecurityDescription":"Improving global health by understanding infectious diseases and preparing for future pandemics","aiProgress":"AI progress","aiProgressDescription":"Exploring the future of artificial intelligence technologies and the impacts to society","nuclearSecurity":"nuclear security","nuclearSecurityDescription":"Quantifying global risks to keep us safe and secure for a flourishing future","climateChange":"climate change","climateChangeDescription":"Predicting long-term shifts in temperature and weather patterns caused by human activity","cookiesTitle":"We use cookies 🍪 to understand how you use Metaculus and to improve your experience.","cookiesSubtitle":"Learn more about how we use cookies in our Privacy Policy","customize":"Customize","acceptAndClose":"Accept and close","cookiePreferences":"Cookie Preferences","cookieServices":"Metaculus uses cookies for the following types of services.","learnMoreFromPrivacyPolicy":"Learn more from our Privacy Policy.","necessaryOnly":"Necessary only","necessaryCookies":"Necessary cookies","cannotBeUnchecked":"Cannot be unchecked","analytics":"Analytics","helpsImprovePlatform":"Helps us improve the platform","saveSelected":"Save Selected","onboardingStep1Question1":"Should I bring an umbrella?","onboardingStep1Question2":"Are we headed for a recession?","onboardingStep1Question3":"Will my team come out on top?","onboardingStep1Paragraph1":"You make predictions all the time, on topics big and small. It's a skill, and Metaculus helps you hone it.","onboardingStep1Paragraph2":"Let's make a few quick predictions to get you started.","onboardingStep1Paragraph3":"First, pick a topic you care about.","skipTutorial":"Skip Tutorial","remindMeLater":"Remind me later","onboardingRemindMeLaterDescription":"(You can always find the tutorial later in the menu at the top of every page)","skipQuestions":"Skip question","onboardingStep2Title":"Here's a real Metaculus question about {topicName}:","onboardingStep2CommunityThinks":"Other forecasters tend to think this is","onboardingStep2CommunityGives":"They give it","onboardingStep2WhatDoYouThink":"What do you think? Do you agree with","onboardingStep2Disagree":"Disagree?","onboardingStep2LessLikely":"Less likely","onboardingStep2AboutRight":"About right","onboardingStep2MoreLikely":"More likely","onboardingStep2Excellent":"Excellent. Below you can see your prediction quantified next to the community's. Does that look about right? If not, you can grab and drag the slider. Click 'Predict' when you're ready to continue.","onboardingStep2Predict":"Predict","onboardingStep2Error":"An error occurred while submitting your forecast.","onboardingStep3Title":"Great! Here's another question about {topicName}:","onboardingStep3CommunityThinks":"Other forecasters tend to think this is","onboardingStep3CommunityGives":"They give it","onboardingStep3WhatDoYouThink":"How likely do you think this is?","onboardingStep3Predict":"Predict","onboardingStep4Factors":"Here are some of the factors other forecasters are considering.","onboardingStep4ConsideringOthers":"Considering others' views is an important step in forecasting accurately!","onboardingStep4WhatDoYouThink":"What do you think? Did any of those factors make you want to change your prediction? If not, that's fine too.","onboardingStep4AlmostDone":"You are almost done with this tutorial!","onboardingStep4Predict":"Predict","onboardingStep4Error":"An error occurred while submitting your forecast.","onboardingStep5NiceWork":"Nice work!","onboardingStep5WellDone":"Well done!","onboardingStep5SavePredictionsParagraph":"Would you like to save the predictions you've made?","onboardingYouPredicted":"You predicted","onboardingStep5AnyoneCanImprove":"Anyone can improve at forecasting by practicing and thinking through what factors could influence outcomes.","onboardingStep5DidYouKnow":"Did you know?","onboardingStep5ForecastingCompetition":"In a series of forecasting competitions conducted by University of Pennsylvania professor Philip Tetlock, skilled forecasters outperformed CIA analysts without access to classified intelligence.","onboardingStep5ReadyToExplore":"You are now ready to explore Metaculus by yourself. What would you like to do next?","onboardingStep5ViewYourPredictions":"View Your Predictions","onboardingStep5ForecastAnother":"Forecast Another","onboardingStep5Question":"Question","onboardingStep5ViewQuestionFeed":"View Question Feed","communityName":"Community Name","communityNameDescription":"This is how your community appears to others.","communitySlug":"Community Slug","communitySlugDescription":"Your community can be accessed via the following URL:","communityDescription":"Community Description","youArePostingAPrivateComment":"You are posting a private comment","unread":"unread","contentTranslatedHeaderText":"Some content on this page is automatically translated, and may be inaccurate.","showOriginalContent":"Show original","willForecastingOn":"You’ll be forecasting on {questionNumber} questions","authOnMetaculus":"Authenticate on Metaculus","questionsToForecast":"There are {questionNumber} questions to forecast.","forecastedOn":"You forecasted on {forecastedNumber} of {questionNumber} available questions","startForecasting":"Start forecasting","continueForecasting":"Continue forecasting","curveIntroduction":"Forecast to help build the AGI readiness survey, and see where you fall relative to the Curve Crowd","curveHistogramHeader":"Check out how your answers compare to the rest of the group. When you’re ready, click Next Question.","nextQuestion":"Next Question","next":"Next","curveSurvey":"AGI Readiness Survey","viewTournamentPage":"View Tournament Page","joinAgiWorkshop":"Join the AGI Readiness Workshop on Saturday at 4pm to generate and discuss more questions.","visitTournamentPage":"If you’d like to change your forecasts, visit the Tournament Page.","forecastedAllQuestions":"You’ve forecasted on all {questionNumber} questions!","answerAfterEditing":"Answers cannot be edited after submission.","fullName":"Full Name","country":"Country of Residence","undergraduateStudentQuestion":"Are you currently an undergraduate student?","institution":"Institution","major":"Major","graduationYear":"Expected Graduation Year","finishRegistration":"Finish Registration","keyFactor":"Key Factor","keyFactors":"Key Factors","notAvailable":"Not available","indexesTitle":"Project","indexScore":"Index value: {value}","indexQuestion":"Question","indexWeight":"Weight","indexCP":"CP","weeklyMovementChange":"{value} this week","noChange":"No change","percentagePoints":"percentage points","proForecastersTitle":"About Metaculus Pro Forecasters","proForecastersDescription":"For certain projects Metaculus employs Pro Forecasters who have demonstrated excellent forecasting ability and who have a history of clearly describing their rationales. Pros forecast on private and public sets of questions to produce well-calibrated forecasts and descriptive rationales for our partners.

If you’re interested in hiring Metaculus Pro Forecasters for a project, contact us at support@metaculus.com with the subject \"Project Inquiry\".","meetProForecasters":"Meet a few of our Pro Forecasters:","whyUseProForecastersTitle":"Why Use Pro Forecasters?","whyUseProForecastersInfo":"The Metaculus community has demonstrated excellent accuracy and calibration on the questions it has forecasted. However, sometimes there are questions of particular importance – either to the world or to certain stakeholders – where excellent calibration and transparent reasoning are of the utmost importance. Pro Forecasters are selected from the most accurate Metaculus forecasters and describe their reasoning when making forecasts, providing enhanced confidence in the calibration of the predictions and ensuring that stakeholders can understand what is driving the forecasts.","selectingProForecastersTitle":"Selecting Pro Forecasters","selectingProForecastersInfo":"Pro Forecasters are carefully selected from forecasters who have fulfilled certain criteria to ensure the quality of their predictions and reasoning.","excellentForecastAbilityTitle":"Excellent Forecasting Ability","excellentForecastAbilityInfo":"Pro Forecasters must demonstrate excellent forecasting ability. This means not only that they have excellent accuracy, but also that they have a history of making insightful comments that clearly explain their reasoning. Accuracy alone is not enough, a Pro Forecaster must be able to both make accurate forecasts and explain the underlying reasoning behind those forecasts.

Our Pro selection methodology uses the Metaculus Leaderboards, combining the Peer Accuracy, Baseline Accuracy, and Comments leaderboards to produce a weighted average score across those leaderboards and across different leaderboard periods. Pros are selected from forecasters who have the highest score on this combined metric, representing the very best forecasters from all of Metaculus. Note that while the Peer score is weighted highest in this combined metric, the weighting is such that forecasters must have good scores in all categories.","robustTrackRecordsTitle":"Robust Track Records","robustTrackRecordsInfo":"Pro Forecasters must have at least 75 resolved questions and must have made predictions across multiple subject areas, with at least one year of experience making predictions.

We also consider recruiting forecasters who have demonstrated excellent forecasting ability elsewhere.","clearCommentsAndCommunicationTitle":"Clear Comments and Communication","clearCommentsAndCommunicationInfo":"Our Pros work on projects for external partners who value clear reasoning to better interpret the forecasts. We select Pros who have a history of making clear and insightful comments, and who are willing to disagree with their peers, but in a polite and respectful manner.","expressionOfInterestFormMessage":"We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are great at providing constructive feedback on submitted questions to become paid moderators. Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.","dateInputDetails":"Date and time is in your local timezone [{timezone}]","postCreateErrorMinSubquestions":"A question group must have at least one subquestion","insertEquation":"Insert Equation","choseEquationType":"Choose the type of equation you want to add. To edit it, simply click on it within the editor.","inline":"Inline","block":"Block","accountInactiveModalTitle":"You've got mail!","accountInactiveModalBody":"Please confirm your email associated with your {login} account to be able to log in.","accountInactiveModalResendButton":"Resend activation email","welcomeToMetaculusCommunity":"Welcome to the Metaculus community!","reviewCommunityGuidelines":"Before posting a comment, please take a moment to review our Community Guidelines. We value thoughtful, respectful, and constructive contributions that help foster meaningful discussions.","keepCivilStayOnTopic":"Keep it civil, stay on topic, and avoid low-effort comments. Reasoning copied directly from AI tools is not allowed. We will delete comments that violate our Community Guidelines.","understand":"I understand","editProfile":"Edit Profile","forecastingPerformance":"Forecasting Performance","totalPrizes":"Total Prizes","totalEarned":"Total Earned","currentRank":"Current Rank","bestEver":"Best Ever","questionsBy":"Questions by","closeDateError":"The close date must be after the open date. Change the open date here or edit the question to change the close date.","table":"Table","slider":"Slider","lowerBound":"Lower bound","quartiles":"Quartiles","upperBound":"Upper bound","leaderboardCpInfo":"This is the main prediction aggregated from all forecasters on each question.

Learn how it's computed here.","aggregationDataIsNotAvailable":"Aggregation data is not available","noAggregationData":"No aggregation data","selectParentQuestion":"Select Parent Question","selectChildQuestion":"Select Child Question","pickQuestion":"Pick Question","viewQuestions":"View Questions({count})","predictionFlow":"Prediction Flow","started":"Started","starts":"Starts","lastDayForPrizeParticipation":"Last day for prize participation","questionsResolved":"Questions resolved","winnersAnnounced":"Winners announced","closedForForecasting":"Closed for forecasting","markdownHelp":"Markdown help","sourceMode":"Source mode","deleteRejectPostDescription":"Are you sure you want to {destructiveAction} this question?","sendBackToReview":"Send back to review","forecastRevealed":"Forecast revealed","closedForForecastingDescription":"This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.","invalidQuestionType":"Invalid question type","invalidQuestionStatus":"Question status should be open or upcoming","chance":"chance","closedForForecastingGroupDescription":"This question is closed for forecasting.

Latest Community predictions were:","and":"and","invalidQuantileInput":"Invalid quantile input","unexpectedError":"Unexpected error","quantileEmptyError":"Quantile can't be empty","q1LessThanError":"Your 25th percentile must be less than your 50th and 75th percentiles","q2BetweenError":"Your 50th percentile must be between your 25th and 75th percentiles","q3GreaterThanError":"Your 75th percentile must be greater than your 25th and 50th percentiles","probabilityRangeError":"Probability must be between 0.1 and 99.9%","probabilitySumError":"Sum of probabilities must not be greater than 99%","quantileBelowBoundError":"Quantile can't be at or below closed lower bound","quantileAboveBoundError":"Quantile can't be at or above closed upper bound","q1BelowRangeError":"When your 25th percentile is below range, your probability below the lower bound should be ≥ 25%","q1AboveRangeError":"When your 25th percentile is above range, your probability above the upper bound should be ≥ 75%","q2BelowRangeError":"When your median is below range, your probability below the lower bound should be ≥ 50%","q2AboveRangeError":"When your median is above range, your probability above the upper bound should be ≥ 50%","q3BelowRangeError":"When your 75th percentile is below range, your probability below the lower bound should be ≥ 75%","q3AboveRangeError":"When your 75th percentile is above range, your probability above the upper bound should be ≥ 25%","emptyCdfError":"continuous_cdf is required for continuous questions","invalidCdfLengthError":"continuous_cdf must have 201 values","quantileTooCloseError":"Your quantiles are too close to each other, please space them out.","quantileTooCloseToClosedBound":"Your quantiles are too close to a closed bound, please add space between them and the edge.","questionRangeError":"range_min and range_max must be defined","chartDataError":"There was an error generating the chart data","percentileBoundsError":"The given percentiles must emcompass upper and lower bounds","q1InRangeProbBelowError":"When your 25th percentile is in range, your probability below the range should be ≤ 25%","q1InRangeProbAboveError":"When your 25th percentile is in range, your probability above the range should be ≤ 75%","q2InRangeProbBelowError":"When your 50th percentile is in range, your probability below the range should be ≤ 50%","q2InRangeProbAboveError":"When your 50th percentile is in range, your probability above the range should be ≤ 50%","q3InRangeProbBelowError":"When your 75th percentile is in range, your probability below the range should be ≤ 75%","q3InRangeProbAboveError":"When your 75th percentile is in range, your probability above the range should be ≤ 25%","manualSubquestionOrder":"Manual (Click the arrows to reorder)","cpAscendingSubquestionOrder":"Community Prediction (Ascending)","cpDescendingSubquestionOrder":"Community Prediction (Descending)","groupSorting":"Group sorting","groupSortingDescription":"The order of the subquestions in the group","today":"Today","forecastCopyToAll":"Copy to all","forecastCopyTo":"Copy to…","forecastCopyToRich":"Copy to {name}","forecastCopyFrom":"Copy from…","forecastCopyFromRich":"Copy from {name}","forecastCopyToAllToastMessage":"Distribution copied to all other questions","forecastCopyFromToastMessage":"Distribution copied from ''{name}''","forecastCopyToToastMessage":"Distribution copied from ''{from_name}'' to ''{to_name}''","result":"result","communityDisclaimer":"Contributed by the community. Learn more","conditionalBranchResolutionAnnulled":"This branch was annulled because the parent question resolved .","communityDisclaimerSiteMain":"This question is also part of main Metaculus.","postNotebookMoveDateModalCopy":"The tournament forecasting end date is {tournament_forecasting_end_date} and you are trying to approve a question that closes on {question_close_date}. Do you want to move the tournament forecasting end date to {question_close_date}?","moveDate":"Move date","addKeyFactor":"Add key factor","addKeyFactors":"Add Key Factors","addKeyFactorsModalP1":"List the key factors you think matter most — keep each one short and specific.","addKeyFactorsModalP2":"Please post a comment to explain why these factors matter for your forecast.","typeKeyFator":"Type a key factor here","back":"Back","noKeyFactorsP1":"No key factors yet","noKeyFactorsP2":"Add some that might influence this forecast.","increasesLikelihood":"Increases likelihood","decreasesLikelihood":"Decreases likelihood","howImpactfulFactor":"How impactful do you think this factor is?","lowImpact":"Low impact","moderateImpact":"Moderate impact","highImpact":"High impact","thankYouForSubmission":"Thank you for your submission!","vote":"Vote","voted":"Voted","howInfluenceForecast":"How does this influence your forecast?","decreases":"decreases","increases":"increases","noImpact":"no impact","maxKeyFactorsPerComment":"A comment can include a maximum of 4 key factors.","maxKeyFactorsPerQuestion":"A question can have no more than 6 key factors by one author.","maxKeyFactorLength":"Key factors must be less than 150 characters.","outdatedServerActionMessage":"Something went wrong. Please, refresh the page and try again.","exitPredictionFlow":"Exit Prediction Flow","potentialyStale":"Potentialy stale","significantMovement":"Significant movement","previous":"Previous","skippedWithoutPredicting":"You skipped {count, plural, =1 {# question} other {# questions}} without predicting.","youSubmittedPredictionsFor":"You’ve submitted predictions for {count} of {total} questions.","reviewSkippedQuestions":"Review skipped questions","questionsTotal":"{count} questions total","noParticipationTournament":"You have not participated in this tournament yet.","reviewAll":"Review all","questionsNotPredicted":"{count, plural, =1 {# question} other {# questions}} not predicted","significantMovementForecasts":"{count, plural, =1 {# forecast} other {# forecasts}} with significant movement","stalePredictions":"{count, plural, =1 {# prediction} other {# predictions}} might be stale","allQuestionsPredicted":"All questions predicted","noForecastsWithSignificantMovement":"No forecasts with significant movement","predictionsUpToDate":"All predictions are up to date","keepPredicting":"Keep predicting","exit":"Exit","youCanComeBackAnytime":"You can come back any time to continue where you left off.","thereAreQuestionsThatRequireAttention":"There {count, plural, =1 {is # question} other {are # questions}} that {count, plural, =1 {requires} other {require}} your attention.","unpredictedQuestion":"There is still an unpredicted question left.","staleQuestions":"{count}% of the question’s lifetime elapsed since your forecast.","significantMovementBannerText":"There was a significant movement in the question prediction since your forecast.","increased":"increased","decreased":"decreased","options":"options","cpHiddenByDefault":"Community prediction is hidden by default in this flow.","revealCP":"Reveal CP","days":"days","weeks":"weeks","months":"months","sooner":"sooner","later":"later","narrowed":"narrowed","expanded":"expanded","detailedSignificantMovementBannerText":"Community prediction {direction} by {amount}{unit} since your last forecast.","dateQuestionSignificantMovementBannerText":"Community prediction moved {amount}{unit} {direction} since your last forecast.","uncertaintySignificantMovementBannerText":"Community prediction {direction} uncertainty by {amount}{unit} since your last forecast.","thereAreQuestionsYouHaveNotPredicted":"There {count, plural, =1 {is # question} other {are # questions}} that you have not predicted yet."},"children":["$","$L1b",null,{"user":null,"children":["$","$L1c",null,{"settings":{"PUBLIC_MINIMAL_UI":false,"PUBLIC_TURNSTILE_SITE_KEY":"0x4AAAAAAA5BWRoForTY-VvN","PUBLIC_APP_URL":"https://www.metaculus.com","PUBLIC_API_BASE_URL":"http://localhost:8000","PUBLIC_POSTHOG_KEY":"phc_MHMYMdGKnR6kte8zaSEOuGs4alwfJ419F5JKYLtz9wQ","PUBLIC_POSTHOG_BASE_URL":"https://ph-ingest.metaculus.com","PUBLIC_FRONTEND_SENTRY_DSN":"https://a594ed7c1041f2f38615388d9ffade9a@o1146290.ingest.us.sentry.io/4507883273125888","PUBLIC_GOOGLE_MEASUREMENT_ID":"G-Z09LZD0ZV0","PUBLIC_DISALLOW_ALL_BOTS":false,"PUBLIC_ALLOW_TUTORIAL":true,"PUBLIC_ALLOW_SIGNUP":true,"PUBLIC_LANDING_PAGE_URL":"/","PUBLIC_AUTHENTICATION_REQUIRED":false,"PUBLIC_SCREENSHOT_SERVICE_ENABLED":true},"children":["$","$L1d",null,{"children":["$","$L1e",null,{"children":["$","$L1f",null,{"children":["$","$L20",null,{"children":[["$","$L21",null,{"showSpinner":false,"color":"#a9c0d6"}],["$","$L3",null,{"parallelRouterKey":"children","error":"$22","errorStyles":[],"errorScripts":[],"template":["$","$L4",null,{}],"templateStyles":"$undefined","templateScripts":"$undefined","notFound":[[["$","title",null,{"children":"404: This page could not be found."}],["$","div",null,{"style":"$0:f:0:1:2:children:1:props:children:1:props:notFound:0:1:props:style","children":["$","div",null,{"children":[["$","style",null,{"dangerouslySetInnerHTML":{"__html":"body{color:#000;background:#fff;margin:0}.next-error-h1{border-right:1px solid rgba(0,0,0,.3)}@media (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body{color:#fff;background:#000}.next-error-h1{border-right:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.3)}}"}}],["$","h1",null,{"className":"next-error-h1","style":"$0:f:0:1:2:children:1:props:children:1:props:notFound:0:1:props:children:props:children:1:props:style","children":404}],["$","div",null,{"style":"$0:f:0:1:2:children:1:props:children:1:props:notFound:0:1:props:children:props:children:2:props:style","children":["$","h2",null,{"style":"$0:f:0:1:2:children:1:props:children:1:props:notFound:0:1:props:children:props:children:2:props:children:props:style","children":"This page could not be found."}]}]]}]}]],[]],"forbidden":"$undefined","unauthorized":"$undefined"}],["$","$L23",null,{}],["$","$L24",null,{}]]}]}]}]}]}]}]}]