Related Question on Metaculus:

When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?

Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the Scottish National Party, a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country.

The SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, which took place in 2014. The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.

The SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one without permission.

Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?

This question will resolve as Yes if there is a referendum held in Scotland regarding Scotland's independence from the United Kingdom, and this referendum is held before May 3, 2024. This referendum may be an "advisory" referendum; that is, it is not necessary for the referendum to have any legally binding effect.

It shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.