M

Your submission is now a Draft.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

You have been invited to co-author this question.

When it is ready, the author will submit it for review by Community Moderators. Thanks for helping!

Pending

This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators.

We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.

If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a comment.

You have been invited to co-author this question.

It now needs to be approved by Community Moderators. Thanks for helping!

{{qctrl.question.title}}

{{qctrl.question.predictionCount() | abbrNumber}} predictions
{{"myPredictionLabel" | translate}}:  
{{ qctrl.question.resolutionString() }}
{{qctrl.question.predictionCount() | abbrNumber}} predictions
My score: {{qctrl.question.player_log_score | logScorePrecision}}
Created by: charlieecho and
co-authors , {{coauthor.username}}

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Related Question on Metaculus:

When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?


Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the Scottish National Party, a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country.

The SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, which took place in 2014. The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.

The SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one without permission.