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Related Question on Metaculus:

When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?

Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the Scottish National Party, a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country.

The SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, which took place in 2014. The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.

The SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one without permission.