"The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them. Changes in the CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living." (Investopedia)

The question concerns the likelyhood of the year-over-year U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy ("Core CPI") being above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months until December 2023.

The "Core CPI" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E).

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?

We will use the not-seasonally-adjusted figures (series CUUR0000SA0L1E) for resolution.

This question resolves positively if the YoY Core CPI rises above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months between August 2021 and December 2023, included.

This question resolves negatively if otherwise.

[EDIT] Sylvain 2021-09-20: Clarified that we'll use not-seasonally-adjusted figures and that the clock starts in August 2021.