Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3460
{ "count": 5983, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3480", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3440", "results": [ { "id": 14507, "title": "Will the Lithium-ion battery recycling market surpass $20 billion (current USD) before 2031?", "short_title": "Battery recycling market up to 2030", "url_title": "Battery recycling market up to 2030", "slug": "battery-recycling-market-up-to-2030", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-13T09:54:16.968204Z", "published_at": "2023-01-30T06:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.076652Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-30T06:40:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-01-30T06:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14507, "title": "Will the Lithium-ion battery recycling market surpass $20 billion (current USD) before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-01-13T09:54:16.968204Z", "open_time": "2023-01-30T06:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-01T06:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-01T06:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-01T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Lithium-ion battery recycling is important for a green transition as it helps to conserve resources and reduce the environmental impact of battery production. With the increasing demand for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage, there is a growing need for lithium-ion batteries. However, the supply of lithium and other materials used in these batteries is limited, and mining these materials can have negative environmental consequences. By recycling used batteries, it is possible to recover valuable materials such as lithium and cobalt, reducing the need for mining and conserving resources.\n\nIn recent years, there has been a significant upswing in companies offering such recycling services. For example, [Redwood Materials](https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/), cofounded by a previous CTO at Tesla, founded in 2017, currently provides materials for batteries for about [60,000 new electric vehicles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redwood_Materials,_Inc.) per year, and aims to “produce enough anode and cathode for one million electric vehicles annually” by 2025. Importantly, the company is [not yet profitable]( https://insideevs.com/news/564366/jb-straubel-battery-recycling-profitability/) which presumably also applies to many of its competitors.\n\nThere are a variety of already existing forecasts on the trajectory of this market. According [Fortune Business Insights report](https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2022/10/06/2529169/0/en/Lithium-ion-Battery-Recycling-Market-Size-Worth-USD-6-55-Billion-Globally-by-2028-at-18-5-CAGR.html#:~:text=06%2C%202022%20(GLOBE%20NEWSWIRE),forecast%20period%20from%202021%2D2028.), the market size is projected to be at around $6.55 billion by 2028, while [other estimates](https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/lithium-ion-battery-recycling-market-153488928.html#:~:text=What%20is%20the%20size%20of,the%20forecast%20period%202021%2D2026.) put the total lithium-ion battery recycling market cap at $22.8 billion by 2030 or even $38.21 billion by 2030 according to [Allied Market Research](https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/lithium-ion-battery-recycling-market-A11683). \n\nAnticipating the size of this market is important to estimate the future impact that recycling can have on the decarbonisation of the world economy, as lithium-ion batteries are considered a key component in this transition and a thriving recycling business may mean reduced strain on supply.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any reputable firm (including but not limited to the three cited above) estimates the lithium-ion battery recycling market to be $20 billion or more for any year up to (and including) 2030. It resolves as **No** otherwise. Resolution will be determined according to information publicly available on January 1, 2032.", "fine_print": "* If one credible source results in a resolution of **Yes** later estimates or revisions by that source or other sources will be irrelevant for the purposes of this question.\n\n* The dollar amount for question resolution is not inflation adjusted at any point.", "post_id": 14507, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731535819.337851, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4657672942 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731535819.337851, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4657672942 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43000000000000005, 0.57 ], "means": [ 0.5657698071329897 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8412494874797594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39738560315786137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8079494144037086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061064077012331824, 0.04671076085250769, 0.02246421852694655, 1.8999502783252034, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13981930080831617, 0.0, 0.09571868246274486, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3760865803313542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6945182832218915, 0.0, 0.29801254725369025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5103156119575218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22781833750170227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5751117920109702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1164748146920504 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287834.551867, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287834.551867, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4937673521189133, 0.5062326478810867 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Lithium-ion battery recycling is important for a green transition as it helps to conserve resources and reduce the environmental impact of battery production. With the increasing demand for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage, there is a growing need for lithium-ion batteries. However, the supply of lithium and other materials used in these batteries is limited, and mining these materials can have negative environmental consequences. By recycling used batteries, it is possible to recover valuable materials such as lithium and cobalt, reducing the need for mining and conserving resources.\n\nIn recent years, there has been a significant upswing in companies offering such recycling services. For example, [Redwood Materials](https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/), cofounded by a previous CTO at Tesla, founded in 2017, currently provides materials for batteries for about [60,000 new electric vehicles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redwood_Materials,_Inc.) per year, and aims to “produce enough anode and cathode for one million electric vehicles annually” by 2025. Importantly, the company is [not yet profitable]( https://insideevs.com/news/564366/jb-straubel-battery-recycling-profitability/) which presumably also applies to many of its competitors.\n\nThere are a variety of already existing forecasts on the trajectory of this market. According [Fortune Business Insights report](https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2022/10/06/2529169/0/en/Lithium-ion-Battery-Recycling-Market-Size-Worth-USD-6-55-Billion-Globally-by-2028-at-18-5-CAGR.html#:~:text=06%2C%202022%20(GLOBE%20NEWSWIRE),forecast%20period%20from%202021%2D2028.), the market size is projected to be at around $6.55 billion by 2028, while [other estimates](https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/lithium-ion-battery-recycling-market-153488928.html#:~:text=What%20is%20the%20size%20of,the%20forecast%20period%202021%2D2026.) put the total lithium-ion battery recycling market cap at $22.8 billion by 2030 or even $38.21 billion by 2030 according to [Allied Market Research](https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/lithium-ion-battery-recycling-market-A11683). \n\nAnticipating the size of this market is important to estimate the future impact that recycling can have on the decarbonisation of the world economy, as lithium-ion batteries are considered a key component in this transition and a thriving recycling business may mean reduced strain on supply." }, { "id": 14505, "title": "Will anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee win a state in the 2028 US presidential election?", "short_title": "US States Won by Non-Major Parties in 2028", "url_title": "US States Won by Non-Major Parties in 2028", "slug": "us-states-won-by-non-major-parties-in-2028", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-13T07:15:47.847895Z", "published_at": "2025-02-08T11:25:38.775084Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T01:23:18.076343Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-08T11:25:38.775082Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-11T11:25:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14505, "title": "Will anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee win a state in the 2028 US presidential election?", "created_at": "2023-01-13T07:15:47.847895Z", "open_time": "2025-02-11T11:25:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-15T11:25:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-15T11:25:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The possibility of someone other than a Democrat or Republican winning the presidency has been discussed for decades, but the two major parties have won every presidential election since 1852. ([Zachary Taylor won for the Whigs in 1848](https://www.britannica.com/event/United-States-presidential-election-of-1848).)\n\nAs of 2025, the most recent best Electoral College showing of anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee in the general election [was 1912, when Teddy Roosevelt's Progressive Party (\"Bull Moose\") won 88 electoral votes](https://www.britannica.com/event/United-States-presidential-election-of-1912). In 1992 Ross Perot won 19% of the popular vote but no states. His best performance was in Maine, [where he received 30% of the vote](https://www.deseret.com/1992/11/24/19017913/perot-made-best-showing-in-maine-with-30-of-vote/).\n\nIn the 2024 election, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. ran as an independent and [at times polled better than the eventual winner](https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-07-11/poll-rfk-jr-bests-trump-but-biden-suffers-more-in-a-wider-race), but in August 2024 Kennedy suspended his campaign and endorsed Donald Trump.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves Yes if any candidate who is neither the national Democratic nor Republican party's official nominee for President of the United States in 2028 receives the greatest number of popular votes in one or more state in the 2028 general election. ", "fine_print": "Faithless electors such as Harry Byrd in [Alabama in 1960](https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=1960) don't matter for this question. \n\nCases in which a state party nominates its own candidate in contravention to the national party, such as [Alabama in 1948](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_United_States_presidential_election_in_Alabama), count.", "post_id": 14505, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758590587.151396, "end_time": 1759343801.342468, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.011 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758590587.151396, "end_time": 1759343801.342468, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.011 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.08776068288036311 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.4016330313135574, 1.7303386644310028, 0.07533680859673718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3098791564968262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8807190051633872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 37, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The possibility of someone other than a Democrat or Republican winning the presidency has been discussed for decades, but the two major parties have won every presidential election since 1852. ([Zachary Taylor won for the Whigs in 1848](https://www.britannica.com/event/United-States-presidential-election-of-1848).)\n\nAs of 2025, the most recent best Electoral College showing of anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee in the general election [was 1912, when Teddy Roosevelt's Progressive Party (\"Bull Moose\") won 88 electoral votes](https://www.britannica.com/event/United-States-presidential-election-of-1912). In 1992 Ross Perot won 19% of the popular vote but no states. His best performance was in Maine, [where he received 30% of the vote](https://www.deseret.com/1992/11/24/19017913/perot-made-best-showing-in-maine-with-30-of-vote/).\n\nIn the 2024 election, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. ran as an independent and [at times polled better than the eventual winner](https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-07-11/poll-rfk-jr-bests-trump-but-biden-suffers-more-in-a-wider-race), but in August 2024 Kennedy suspended his campaign and endorsed Donald Trump." }, { "id": 14503, "title": "Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?", "short_title": "Debt Limit Increased or Suspended in 2023?", "url_title": "Debt Limit Increased or Suspended in 2023?", "slug": "debt-limit-increased-or-suspended-in-2023", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-13T04:24:34.217866Z", "published_at": "2023-01-21T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.538173Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-21T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-03T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-03T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-21T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14503, "title": "Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-01-13T04:24:34.217866Z", "open_time": "2023-01-21T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-23T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-23T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-03T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-03T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-03T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [debt limit](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-debt-ceiling) or debt ceiling in the United States, first established in 1917, sets a limit on the amount of money the US Treasury can borrow. As the US typically borrows to pay prior obligations, reaching the debt limit also limits the ability of the Treasury to fulfill debt obligations, risking default. When the debt limit is reached the Treasury will typically undertake [extraordinary measures](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-debt-ceiling#extraordinarymeasures) to avoid default as long as possible. Both debt held by the public and debt held by the Federal government (for example, [debt owed to the Social Security trust fund](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-debt/#breaking-down-the-debt)).\n\nTo avoid default the US has periodically increased the statutory debt limit or temporarily suspended it. Suspensions of the debt limit [typically include](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN11829) an increase to the statutory debt limit to match the outstanding debt on the day the suspension ends. The Treasury publishes a [Daily Treasury Statement](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/daily-treasury-statement/debt-subject-to-limit) (DTS) containing data about the current statutory debt limit and the outstanding debt subject to that limit. A chart of the last three years of the statutory debt limit and the debt subject to limit is below, with [more details here](https://www.ryanbeckauthor.com/forecasting/DebtLimit.html).\n\n<img src=\"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ryooan/ryooan.github.io/master/forecasting/DebtLimitPackage/R/debtLimitPlotShort.png\" alt=\"US Debt Limit and Debt Subject to Limit (Past Three Year)\" />\n\nThe US has failed to pay debt obligations on time on several occasions. [This Reason article](https://reason.com/2021/11/19/no-the-united-states-has-not-always-paid-its-debts/) describes five cases which could be characterized as default, and [this Congressional Research Service (CRS) report](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44704) explores three of them in more detail. The most recent occurrence was the 1979 \"mini-default\", when a technical error led to the late payment to holders of Treasury securities. CRS says the following about the overall record of US debt repayment:\n\n>The historical record appears not to support the contention that the U.S. government has had an unblemished payment record since its origin. Under any reasonable definition of default, the federal government defaulted in 1814. The Treasury Secretary of the time, Alexander Dallas, referred to “every sort of embarrassment.” The current website of the U.S. Treasury notes that Secretary Dallas faced a “bankrupt” Treasury. The failure of the Treasury to pay interest on its securities due to Boston banks in 1814 represents an unambiguous default event.\n\nRegarding the 1979 \"mini-default\" CRS says:\n\n>Claims that payment delays to small investors holding Treasury securities in the spring of 1979 constituted a default or a “technical default” appear weaker. Delays affected only a relatively small proportion of Treasury securities and the federal government responded to mitigate the inconvenience suffered by those investors. The legal document setting out terms for Treasury securities contained no default clause.\n\nPartisan standoffs over the debt limit have at times caused uncertainty in the financial markets. In 2011 [S&P downgraded the US credit rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_government_credit-rating_downgrades) from AAA to AA+ after the [debt ceiling crisis that year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_United_States_debt-ceiling_crisis).", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, the United States increases the statutory debt limit or suspends it for at least 30 days as the result of one piece of legislation according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). Any amount of increase qualifies, as does any suspension which lasts at least 30 days that was passed as part of one piece of legislation. The suspension must begin before January 1, 2024 to qualify, the end date of the suspension is irrelevant apart from the 30 day requirement", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14503, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685938026.395006, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685938026.395006, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9774259876678362 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27389162834287195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002007023398223986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008551805847127919, 0.0, 0.18205406847750352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19333358002911022, 0.414380520537279, 1.6804207969072529, 0.17876133713455172, 0.1425702986226552, 0.33818082549393985, 9.51475123092009 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.039001920160131, "coverage": 0.38569057662608114, "baseline_score": 36.06370560307236, "spot_peer_score": -3.975652127318077, "peer_archived_score": 1.039001920160131, "baseline_archived_score": 36.06370560307236, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.975652127318077 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685707236.368874, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685707236.368874, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.0423356118311321, 0.9576643881688679 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [debt limit](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-debt-ceiling) or debt ceiling in the United States, first established in 1917, sets a limit on the amount of money the US Treasury can borrow. As the US typically borrows to pay prior obligations, reaching the debt limit also limits the ability of the Treasury to fulfill debt obligations, risking default. When the debt limit is reached the Treasury will typically undertake [extraordinary measures](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-debt-ceiling#extraordinarymeasures) to avoid default as long as possible. Both debt held by the public and debt held by the Federal government (for example, [debt owed to the Social Security trust fund](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-debt/#breaking-down-the-debt)).\n\nTo avoid default the US has periodically increased the statutory debt limit or temporarily suspended it. Suspensions of the debt limit [typically include](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN11829) an increase to the statutory debt limit to match the outstanding debt on the day the suspension ends. The Treasury publishes a [Daily Treasury Statement](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/daily-treasury-statement/debt-subject-to-limit) (DTS) containing data about the current statutory debt limit and the outstanding debt subject to that limit. A chart of the last three years of the statutory debt limit and the debt subject to limit is below, with [more details here](https://www.ryanbeckauthor.com/forecasting/DebtLimit.html).\n\n<img src=\"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ryooan/ryooan.github.io/master/forecasting/DebtLimitPackage/R/debtLimitPlotShort.png\" alt=\"US Debt Limit and Debt Subject to Limit (Past Three Year)\" />\n\nThe US has failed to pay debt obligations on time on several occasions. [This Reason article](https://reason.com/2021/11/19/no-the-united-states-has-not-always-paid-its-debts/) describes five cases which could be characterized as default, and [this Congressional Research Service (CRS) report](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44704) explores three of them in more detail. The most recent occurrence was the 1979 \"mini-default\", when a technical error led to the late payment to holders of Treasury securities. CRS says the following about the overall record of US debt repayment:\n\n>The historical record appears not to support the contention that the U.S. government has had an unblemished payment record since its origin. Under any reasonable definition of default, the federal government defaulted in 1814. The Treasury Secretary of the time, Alexander Dallas, referred to “every sort of embarrassment.” The current website of the U.S. Treasury notes that Secretary Dallas faced a “bankrupt” Treasury. The failure of the Treasury to pay interest on its securities due to Boston banks in 1814 represents an unambiguous default event.\n\nRegarding the 1979 \"mini-default\" CRS says:\n\n>Claims that payment delays to small investors holding Treasury securities in the spring of 1979 constituted a default or a “technical default” appear weaker. Delays affected only a relatively small proportion of Treasury securities and the federal government responded to mitigate the inconvenience suffered by those investors. The legal document setting out terms for Treasury securities contained no default clause.\n\nPartisan standoffs over the debt limit have at times caused uncertainty in the financial markets. In 2011 [S&P downgraded the US credit rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_government_credit-rating_downgrades) from AAA to AA+ after the [debt ceiling crisis that year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_United_States_debt-ceiling_crisis)." }, { "id": 14502, "title": "Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?", "short_title": "Dense ML Model of 100T Parameters Before 2026", "url_title": "Dense ML Model of 100T Parameters Before 2026", "slug": "dense-ml-model-of-100t-parameters-before-2026", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 108770, "username": "Matthew_Barnett" } ], "created_at": "2023-01-12T23:35:33.851865Z", "published_at": "2023-01-25T13:14:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T20:57:59.089498Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-25T13:14:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, 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"is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:01:38.281325Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2344, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Technical Benchmarks", "slug": "ai-technical-benchmarks", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/technical.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:01:38.281325Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14502, "title": "Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-01-12T23:35:33.851865Z", "open_time": "2023-01-25T13:14:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-27T13:14:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-27T13:14:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/) (resolved as **Yes**)\n* [If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14327/gpt-4-number-of-parameters/)\n\n---\n\nParameter count is a key attribute of modern machine learning (ML) systems: it has a strong influence on model performance, and on training costs. [Deepchecks describes](https://deepchecks.com/glossary/model-parameters/) parameters as follows:\n\n>The weights and coefficients that the algorithm extracts from the data are known as model parameters. Model parameters of neural networks consider how the predictor variable influences the target variable.\n\nIn other words the model [learns these parameters during training](https://www.geeksforgeeks.org/difference-between-model-parameters-vs-hyperparameters/) to fit the input data to the appropriate output.\n\nIn recent years the number of parameters used in ML models [has increased rapidly](https://epochai.org/blog/machine-learning-model-sizes-and-the-parameter-gap). But, as discussed in [this writeup](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/midXmMb2Xg37F2Kgn/new-scaling-laws-for-large-language-models) (and also [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Fpvch8RR29qLEWNH/chinchilla-s-wild-implications)) research by DeepMind published in the spring of 2022, along with a model named [Chinchilla](https://www.deepmind.com/publications/an-empirical-analysis-of-compute-optimal-large-language-model-training), suggested that the importance of dataset size relative to parameter count had been underestimated in previous work.\n\n>On March 29th, DeepMind published a paper, \"Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models\", that shows that essentially everyone -- OpenAI, DeepMind, Microsoft, etc. -- has been training large language models with a deeply suboptimal use of compute.\n>\n>Following the new scaling laws that they propose for the optimal use of compute, DeepMind trains a new, 70-billion parameter model that outperforms much larger language models, including the 175-billion parameter GPT-3 and DeepMind's own 270-billion parameter \"Gopher\".\n\nIn March of 2022, a paper describing the [BaGuaLu model](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3503221.3508417) model was published, and discussed a variant of this model trained with 174 trillion parameters. However, this was a [sparse model](https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.03961) (seemingly a variant of [mixture of experts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mixture_of_experts)) and was primarily a demonstration of the ability to train large scale models.\n\nSparse models activate a smaller share of their parameters in a forward pass, using those that were trained for the task at hand, while dense models use a larger share of their parameters. In an ML model a [forward pass](https://ml-cheatsheet.readthedocs.io/en/latest/forwardpropagation.html) or forward propagation is the process of input data \"travelling\" through the neural network to the output node.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/artificial-intelligence-parameter-count\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\n*Note that the above is for information only and is not the resolution source for this question.*", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a credible source publishes information detailing a dense ML model with at least 100 trillion parameters. For the purposes of this question a dense model is one for which all of the following are true to the extent they can be determined from the available information:\n\n* The model uses at least 80% of its parameters during a single forward pass\n * If this information is not available, the model must not be described by its creators as being related to a known sparse architecture (for example, [mixture of experts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mixture_of_experts))\n* The model is not a hypothetical description or a demonstration of scaling without application. The model must actually be trained and implemented either against benchmarks and performance assessments or used in a real-world application", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14502, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758661068.717346, "end_time": 1759046256.378042, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.165 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758661068.717346, "end_time": 1759046256.378042, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.165 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.835, 0.165 ], "means": [ 0.20602776377218882 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 0.0, 0.7490672709776599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7955166408122005, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38296948584461915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 0.20077883994766343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45972621534782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5457734721688206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288702.132101, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288702.132101, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8735187373687294, 0.12648126263127052 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 146, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/) (resolved as **Yes**)\n* [If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14327/gpt-4-number-of-parameters/)\n\n---\n\nParameter count is a key attribute of modern machine learning (ML) systems: it has a strong influence on model performance, and on training costs. [Deepchecks describes](https://deepchecks.com/glossary/model-parameters/) parameters as follows:\n\n>The weights and coefficients that the algorithm extracts from the data are known as model parameters. Model parameters of neural networks consider how the predictor variable influences the target variable.\n\nIn other words the model [learns these parameters during training](https://www.geeksforgeeks.org/difference-between-model-parameters-vs-hyperparameters/) to fit the input data to the appropriate output.\n\nIn recent years the number of parameters used in ML models [has increased rapidly](https://epochai.org/blog/machine-learning-model-sizes-and-the-parameter-gap). But, as discussed in [this writeup](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/midXmMb2Xg37F2Kgn/new-scaling-laws-for-large-language-models) (and also [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Fpvch8RR29qLEWNH/chinchilla-s-wild-implications)) research by DeepMind published in the spring of 2022, along with a model named [Chinchilla](https://www.deepmind.com/publications/an-empirical-analysis-of-compute-optimal-large-language-model-training), suggested that the importance of dataset size relative to parameter count had been underestimated in previous work.\n\n>On March 29th, DeepMind published a paper, \"Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models\", that shows that essentially everyone -- OpenAI, DeepMind, Microsoft, etc. -- has been training large language models with a deeply suboptimal use of compute.\n>\n>Following the new scaling laws that they propose for the optimal use of compute, DeepMind trains a new, 70-billion parameter model that outperforms much larger language models, including the 175-billion parameter GPT-3 and DeepMind's own 270-billion parameter \"Gopher\".\n\nIn March of 2022, a paper describing the [BaGuaLu model](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3503221.3508417) model was published, and discussed a variant of this model trained with 174 trillion parameters. However, this was a [sparse model](https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.03961) (seemingly a variant of [mixture of experts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mixture_of_experts)) and was primarily a demonstration of the ability to train large scale models.\n\nSparse models activate a smaller share of their parameters in a forward pass, using those that were trained for the task at hand, while dense models use a larger share of their parameters. In an ML model a [forward pass](https://ml-cheatsheet.readthedocs.io/en/latest/forwardpropagation.html) or forward propagation is the process of input data \"travelling\" through the neural network to the output node.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/artificial-intelligence-parameter-count\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\n*Note that the above is for information only and is not the resolution source for this question.*" }, { "id": 14501, "title": "Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?", "short_title": "5% Bing Market Share in March 2024?", "url_title": "5% Bing Market Share in March 2024?", "slug": "5-bing-market-share-in-march-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119066, "username": "andyrosa" } ], "created_at": "2023-01-12T23:00:04.020340Z", "published_at": "2023-01-28T21:47:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.497334Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-28T21:47:00Z", "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-31T22:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-31T22:09:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-22T03:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-22T03:51:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-28T21:47:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 225, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:01:38.048098Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:01:38.048098Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14501, "title": "Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?", "created_at": "2023-01-12T23:00:04.020340Z", "open_time": "2023-01-28T21:47:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-30T21:47:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-30T21:47:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-22T03:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-22T03:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-22T03:51:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-31T22:09:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-31T22:09:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Microsoft's search engine, [Bing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Bing), was the second most popular search engine after Google in December of 2022, according to [data provided by Statcounter](https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share). Statcounter reports a market share of 92.58% for Google and 3.03% for Bing in December of 2022. In early January 2023 it was [reported](https://www.engadget.com/microsoft-reportedly-integrating-chatgpt-technology-into-bing-131502579.html) that Microsoft was exploring integration of OpenAI's [ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) into Bing search results.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Bing's market share for the month of March 2024 is 5% or higher [according to Statcounter](https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share), using the first value accessed by Metaculus on or after April 15, 2024.", "fine_print": "* The filters used will be those shown by default as of January 12, 2023, namely:\n * All platforms\n * Worldwide\n * A period of \"monthly\"\n* If the Statcounter data is unavailable, or Bing is not listed, this question resolves as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 14501, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711711556.328344, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 225, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711711556.328344, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 225, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.013360838925483468 ], "histogram": [ [ 15.171338506292509, 10.619338066122625, 0.44026359458662284, 0.19410858480256946, 0.549940335609944, 0.3306798044529718, 0.07909516787178315, 0.39477658681450917, 0.06140813354521567, 0.08048961967746857, 0.032734707772916476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004968485144830828, 0.0, 0.24598673650828473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031196873256415465, 0.0009671206205945407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002884618544608233, 0.00066292131694329, 0.007695367624716713, 0.0, 0.14063390415467975, 0.0563797996415272, 0.0, 0.003494988858101077, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00023246975689023214, 0.0005813453539393639, 0.0004171715950800138, 0.0004536822715903908, 0.0, 0.0009483696905840912, 0.0, 0.0045981144985888815, 0.0, 0.0015582124314003163, 0.0, 0.00019082609568494028, 0.0008564230669672195, 0.0003354626279025118, 0.0, 0.0001134758842825018, 0.0036312412811227227, 9.69110751717002e-06, 0.0, 4.1037654330136223e-05, 0.000747419363827797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003554490163073066, 2.3912695287933626e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 2.6779763605971517e-05, 0.0004976583065866576, 3.7015697568385146e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.6463673114033774e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00019958720455210278, 0.0, 8.426461338266786e-05, 2.6116429676821167e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00037307003651571225, 0.0, 8.009992524430552e-05, 2.9906811174121537e-05, 0.03705692299312447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.3312287329069793e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000168691828176226 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 34.280895215385435, "coverage": 0.9994974644473602, "baseline_score": 63.77286868601112, "spot_peer_score": 3.9342402029519485, "peer_archived_score": 34.280895215385435, "baseline_archived_score": 63.77286868601112, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.9342402029519485 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711871055.572777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 225, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711871055.572777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 225, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 850, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Microsoft's search engine, [Bing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Bing), was the second most popular search engine after Google in December of 2022, according to [data provided by Statcounter](https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share). Statcounter reports a market share of 92.58% for Google and 3.03% for Bing in December of 2022. In early January 2023 it was [reported](https://www.engadget.com/microsoft-reportedly-integrating-chatgpt-technology-into-bing-131502579.html) that Microsoft was exploring integration of OpenAI's [ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) into Bing search results." }, { "id": 14483, "title": "Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?", "short_title": "GOP Membership Calls Speaker Vote Before July", "url_title": "GOP Membership Calls Speaker Vote Before July", "slug": "gop-membership-calls-speaker-vote-before-july", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-12T01:58:27.896900Z", "published_at": "2023-01-21T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.766509Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-21T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:12:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-21T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 56, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14483, "title": "Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-01-12T01:58:27.896900Z", "open_time": "2023-01-21T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-23T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-23T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T16:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14481/mccarthy-speaker-on-january-1-2024/)\n\n---\n\n[Kevin McCarthy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_McCarthy) was elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives [on January 7, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election), after [15 ballots](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14379/-ballot-rounds-to-elect-us-house-speaker/), the first time since 1923 an election for Speaker required more than one ballot. The contentious election and [concessions to the House Freedom Caucus](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2023/01/10/mccarthy-paid-a-steep-price-for-his-speakership-now-what/) — including rules that allow any member of the House to [call for a vote](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/speaker-of-the-house-ousted-motion-to-vacate-rcna64902) that would oust the Speaker by simple majority — have weakened his position as Speaker.\n\nThe rules for the House of Representatives of the 118th Congress adopt [those of the 117th Congress](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-CLERK-RULE-PAMPHLET-117/xml/GPO-CLERK-RULE-PAMPHLET-117.xml) with some amendments. The relevant portion of the rules is Rule IX, the text of which is quoted below. The [amended rules](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-resolution/5/text) remove subparagraph (3) of clause 2(a) (shown in bold).\n\n>1\\. Questions of privilege shall be, first, those affecting the rights of the House collectively, its safety, dignity, and the integrity of its proceedings; and second, those affecting the rights, reputation, and conduct of Members, Delegates, or the Resident Commissioner, individually, in their representative capacity only.\n>\n>2\\. (a)(1) A resolution reported as a question of the privileges of the House, or offered from the floor by the Majority Leader or the Minority Leader as a question of the privileges of the House, or offered as privileged under clause 1, section 7, article I of the Constitution, shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn. A resolution offered from the floor by a Member, Delegate, or Resident Commissioner other than the Majority Leader or the Minority Leader as a question of the privileges of the House shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn only at a time or place, designated by the Speaker, in the legislative schedule within two legislative days after the day on which the proponent announces to the House an intention to offer the resolution and the form of the resolution. Oral announcement of the form of the resolution may be dispensed with by unanimous consent.\n>\n>(2) The time allotted for debate on a resolution offered from the floor as a question of the privileges of the House shall be equally divided between (A) the proponent of the resolution, and (B) the Majority Leader, the Minority Leader, or a designee, as determined by the Speaker.\n>\n>**(3) A resolution causing a vacancy in the Office of Speaker shall not be privileged except if offered by direction of a party caucus or conference.**\n>\n>(b) A question of personal privilege shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2023, a member of the Republican Party introduces a resolution to remove Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House and a vote on the resolution is held. Both the introduction of the resolution and the vote must occur before July 1, 2023. Otherwise this question resolves as **No**. The outcome of the vote and any such resolutions introduced by representatives who are not Republicans are irrelevant for the purposes of this question", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14483, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688174839.60316, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688174839.60316, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.031083127771263864 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.734248003435219, 5.021969583515921, 0.3696035790363438, 0.6811001890334462, 0.9176652446293321, 0.07544621294165546, 0.0, 0.7104289439189292, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19159665368594173, 0.1226831864486109, 0.054982568596560574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13580925188680532, 0.0, 0.11171412217289521, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015287348614981507, 0.0, 0.0391375041447012, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05075764863263897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009514982201565289, 0.049233607049991815, 0.02212262883249598, 0.043962607759905424, 0.051402522983813155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007926343375474506, 0.011295907652000815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04801409210239034, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0052619857942816685, 0.0023132514010442214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031787604112146167, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.358962229915152, "coverage": 0.9962961933116813, "baseline_score": 8.619621874353442, "spot_peer_score": -2.381402449462726, "peer_archived_score": 5.358962229915152, "baseline_archived_score": 8.619621874353442, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.381402449462726 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688174839.624735, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688174839.624735, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9988237584548448, 0.001176241545155212 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 231, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14481/mccarthy-speaker-on-january-1-2024/)\n\n---\n\n[Kevin McCarthy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_McCarthy) was elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives [on January 7, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election), after [15 ballots](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14379/-ballot-rounds-to-elect-us-house-speaker/), the first time since 1923 an election for Speaker required more than one ballot. The contentious election and [concessions to the House Freedom Caucus](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2023/01/10/mccarthy-paid-a-steep-price-for-his-speakership-now-what/) — including rules that allow any member of the House to [call for a vote](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/speaker-of-the-house-ousted-motion-to-vacate-rcna64902) that would oust the Speaker by simple majority — have weakened his position as Speaker.\n\nThe rules for the House of Representatives of the 118th Congress adopt [those of the 117th Congress](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-CLERK-RULE-PAMPHLET-117/xml/GPO-CLERK-RULE-PAMPHLET-117.xml) with some amendments. The relevant portion of the rules is Rule IX, the text of which is quoted below. The [amended rules](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-resolution/5/text) remove subparagraph (3) of clause 2(a) (shown in bold).\n\n>1\\. Questions of privilege shall be, first, those affecting the rights of the House collectively, its safety, dignity, and the integrity of its proceedings; and second, those affecting the rights, reputation, and conduct of Members, Delegates, or the Resident Commissioner, individually, in their representative capacity only.\n>\n>2\\. (a)(1) A resolution reported as a question of the privileges of the House, or offered from the floor by the Majority Leader or the Minority Leader as a question of the privileges of the House, or offered as privileged under clause 1, section 7, article I of the Constitution, shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn. A resolution offered from the floor by a Member, Delegate, or Resident Commissioner other than the Majority Leader or the Minority Leader as a question of the privileges of the House shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn only at a time or place, designated by the Speaker, in the legislative schedule within two legislative days after the day on which the proponent announces to the House an intention to offer the resolution and the form of the resolution. Oral announcement of the form of the resolution may be dispensed with by unanimous consent.\n>\n>(2) The time allotted for debate on a resolution offered from the floor as a question of the privileges of the House shall be equally divided between (A) the proponent of the resolution, and (B) the Majority Leader, the Minority Leader, or a designee, as determined by the Speaker.\n>\n>**(3) A resolution causing a vacancy in the Office of Speaker shall not be privileged except if offered by direction of a party caucus or conference.**\n>\n>(b) A question of personal privilege shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn." }, { "id": 14481, "title": "Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "McCarthy Speaker on January 1, 2024?", "url_title": "McCarthy Speaker on January 1, 2024?", "slug": "mccarthy-speaker-on-january-1-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-11T23:48:06.708709Z", "published_at": "2023-01-28T21:50:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.932770Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-28T21:50:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-28T21:50:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 128, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14481, "title": "Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-01-11T23:48:06.708709Z", "open_time": "2023-01-28T21:50:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-30T21:50:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-30T21:50:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14483/gop-member-calls-speaker-vote-before-july/)\n\n---\n\n[Kevin McCarthy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_McCarthy) was elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives [on January 7, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election), after [15 ballots](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14379/-ballot-rounds-to-elect-us-house-speaker/), the first time since 1923 an election for Speaker required more than one ballot. The contentious election and [concessions to the House Freedom Caucus](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2023/01/10/mccarthy-paid-a-steep-price-for-his-speakership-now-what/) — including rules that allow any member of the House to [call for a vote](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/speaker-of-the-house-ousted-motion-to-vacate-rcna64902) that would oust the Speaker by simple majority — have weakened his position as Speaker.\n\nIn 2015, Speaker of the House John Boehner [resigned after facing substantial discord within his party](https://www.cnn.com/2015/09/25/politics/why-john-boehner-quit/index.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Kevin McCarthy is [Speaker of the House](https://www.house.gov/leadership) on January 1, 2024 at noon Eastern Time. If he is not Speaker of the House it resolves as **No**. McCarthy need not continuously be Speaker until that time so long as he is Speaker at the designated time", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14481, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704075680.863958, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704075680.863958, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.009189673910946973 ], "histogram": [ [ 15.652461500623373, 4.574083143015602, 0.2623186783768242, 0.002203835392502228, 0.09353340918854988, 0.09889382303426979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08358028327862993, 0.0, 0.07896550941018672, 0.0, 0.12317316826097965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030093116440110552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038717996906980454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014199759753998997, 0.0, 0.0, 3.31751817584021e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0200029851686126e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00014135745183244355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000586859480427528, 0.0, 0.00011419072040023296, 0.0005146357895676243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0884326457524587, 0.0, 0.00045161857090741584, 0.0, 0.0, 6.898250119390333e-05, 0.0, 0.0001720101299339614, 0.00033644236257094836, 0.0, 0.0002883225212909778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004800847098969679 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.684610110378491, "coverage": 0.9998239577840341, "baseline_score": -61.777734629536745, "spot_peer_score": 2.9312471323232487, "peer_archived_score": 12.684610110378491, "baseline_archived_score": -61.777734629536745, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.9312471323232487 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704075680.887462, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704075680.887462, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 540, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14483/gop-member-calls-speaker-vote-before-july/)\n\n---\n\n[Kevin McCarthy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_McCarthy) was elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives [on January 7, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election), after [15 ballots](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14379/-ballot-rounds-to-elect-us-house-speaker/), the first time since 1923 an election for Speaker required more than one ballot. The contentious election and [concessions to the House Freedom Caucus](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2023/01/10/mccarthy-paid-a-steep-price-for-his-speakership-now-what/) — including rules that allow any member of the House to [call for a vote](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/speaker-of-the-house-ousted-motion-to-vacate-rcna64902) that would oust the Speaker by simple majority — have weakened his position as Speaker.\n\nIn 2015, Speaker of the House John Boehner [resigned after facing substantial discord within his party](https://www.cnn.com/2015/09/25/politics/why-john-boehner-quit/index.html)." }, { "id": 14460, "title": "Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 20th, 2023?", "short_title": "Russian Troops in Central Bakhmut by 1-20-'23", "url_title": "Russian Troops in Central Bakhmut by 1-20-'23", "slug": "russian-troops-in-central-bakhmut-by-1-20-23", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-10T22:27:13.660773Z", "published_at": "2023-01-13T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.441840Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-13T10:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-18T19:17:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-18T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-18T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-18T19:17:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-13T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": 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reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 20th, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-01-10T22:27:13.660773Z", "open_time": "2023-01-13T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-13T11:35:12.978350Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-13T11:35:12.978350Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-18T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-18T19:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-18T19:17:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-18T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-18T19:17:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Some 10½ months ago, on February 24th, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Their concept of operations apparently involved rapidly taking the capital, deposing the government, and largely completing the country's conquest before Western countries could co-ordinate on a reaction. By April, after fierce Ukrainian resistance and serious deficiencies in Russian military preparedness defeated this plan, Russia [shifted focus to the Donets Basion (Donbas) region in the country's east](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ukrainian-troops-risk-being-encircled-in-new-russian-offensive-1.1754033), where conditions were more favorable. [This offensive also bogged down quickly](https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-donbas-offensive-faltering-analysis/31832683.html), and Russia's offensive ambitions [continually narrowed](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/24/world/europe/russia-shrinking-war-ukraine.html) into the summer until they were [focused ultimately around the town of Bakhmut](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-18), where operations were being conducted largely by the \"Wagner Group\" private army under Yevgeny Prigozhin instead of by the regular Russian army.\n\nBy fall, Bakhmut was [described as an obsession for Russia](https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/09/russia-seems-obsessed-with-capturing-one-key-city-in-ukraine/) and a \"[meat grinder](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/10/28/its-a-meat-grinder-fighting-rages-in-eastern-ukraine-as-russian-forces-eye-bakhmut-a79225)\" into which its best forces were being wastefully thrown. Nonetheless, the Bakhmut offensive continued, with some analysts speculating that it was [essentially a propaganda operation](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/10/21/russia-is-wasting-its-last-good-troops-in-a-pointless-attack-on-a-worthless-town/?sh=369e7177351d) designed to provide Russian President Putin with a \"victory\" to offset mounting defeats, or even [motivated by Prigozhin's personal financial interests.](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-8-2023)\n\nOn December 20th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy [visited Bakhmut to show support for the defenders.](https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-war-bakhmut-russia-sacrificing-troops-meat-waves/) On January 6th, Russia [launched a powerful assault on the adjacent town of Soledar](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/09/world/russia-ukraine-news), where Ukrainian officials [acknowledged the situation was \"difficult.\"](https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-strikes-bakhmut-donbas-constant-attacks/32215218.html) As of January 10th, there were [competing claims about whether Soledar had fallen or would fall,](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/09/world/russia-ukraine-news) and whether this portended a larger Ukrainian defeat over the coming days.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if Russian troops who are not prisoners, defectors, surrendering, bailed-out, etc are reported by at least two of the following specified sources to have reached the zone defined as the center of Bakhmut before midnight local time on January 20th, 2023 (that is, 10pm GMT or 5pm ET on January 19th.)\n\n* Ukrainian officials\n* Institute for the Study of War\n* UK Ministry of Defence\n* The New York Times\n* The Wall Street Journal\n* BBC\n* CNN\n* Associated Press\n* Agence France-Presse\n* Reuters\n\nFor this question, Central Bakhmut is defined as the area within the city limits of Bakhmut, **minus** everything eastwards of the eastern bank of the Bakhmutovka river. In other words, the Russian forces must reach the eastern bank of the Bakhmutovka while inside Bakhmut's city limits for this question to resolve **Yes.**\n\nIt will resolve **No** if such reports are not forthcoming by midnight local time on January 21st, 2023.\n\nResolution time will be the best estimate of when, exactly, the Russian troops entered, not the time of the subsequent report. Admins will use their best considered judgment of reliable sources to determine this.\n\nMake sure to pay attention to the *Fine Print* below, which can provide extra details and context when making your predictions.", "fine_print": "* This question closes at midnight (0000 hrs) Ukraine time on January 20th, but does not resolve until midnight Ukraine time on January 21st, 2023 (10pm GMT or 5pm Eastern on January 20th, 2023) to allow 24 hours for delayed reporting\n\n* Because Russian troops could be reported in central Bakhmut *before* close time, the question might not be open for the full scheduled time.\n\n* The question is *when Russian troops will actually enter,* not when the first news of it will come out, or when Metaculus itself will decide on resolution.", "post_id": 14460, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1674068657.522286, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1674068657.522286, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.23202780962863787 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.1802396534251218, 0.19277466612226013, 0.0, 0.26517135135016334, 0.14018665600374222, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12908693797700882, 1.6457792885245888, 0.0, 0.8780449118407806, 0.0, 0.10773183566390956, 1.9810634993571266, 0.406070178888653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13983783760846924, 1.0360000918765135, 1.0520422378294039, 1.027778386960977, 0.1623431031235406, 0.3440559595491015, 1.590023582335894, 0.0, 0.0021015052760297217, 0.6713551065666308, 0.0, 1.3366788237899574, 0.038983510779222394, 0.30018970671771467, 0.0010303164300238567, 0.20568439241539585, 0.8972354607288082, 0.28220506123837086, 0.2913442752463236, 0.0, 0.4842985197522743, 0.0015050157310024152, 0.006953708882782987, 0.1702509270827339, 0.5435784905528189, 0.0, 0.0635201419493524, 0.36032272521860703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2193406282932918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032737217951857513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00125373555270061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1673644730.903662, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1673644730.903662, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8666289404839299, 0.13337105951607012 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 157, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Some 10½ months ago, on February 24th, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Their concept of operations apparently involved rapidly taking the capital, deposing the government, and largely completing the country's conquest before Western countries could co-ordinate on a reaction. By April, after fierce Ukrainian resistance and serious deficiencies in Russian military preparedness defeated this plan, Russia [shifted focus to the Donets Basion (Donbas) region in the country's east](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ukrainian-troops-risk-being-encircled-in-new-russian-offensive-1.1754033), where conditions were more favorable. [This offensive also bogged down quickly](https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-donbas-offensive-faltering-analysis/31832683.html), and Russia's offensive ambitions [continually narrowed](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/24/world/europe/russia-shrinking-war-ukraine.html) into the summer until they were [focused ultimately around the town of Bakhmut](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-18), where operations were being conducted largely by the \"Wagner Group\" private army under Yevgeny Prigozhin instead of by the regular Russian army.\n\nBy fall, Bakhmut was [described as an obsession for Russia](https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/09/russia-seems-obsessed-with-capturing-one-key-city-in-ukraine/) and a \"[meat grinder](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/10/28/its-a-meat-grinder-fighting-rages-in-eastern-ukraine-as-russian-forces-eye-bakhmut-a79225)\" into which its best forces were being wastefully thrown. Nonetheless, the Bakhmut offensive continued, with some analysts speculating that it was [essentially a propaganda operation](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/10/21/russia-is-wasting-its-last-good-troops-in-a-pointless-attack-on-a-worthless-town/?sh=369e7177351d) designed to provide Russian President Putin with a \"victory\" to offset mounting defeats, or even [motivated by Prigozhin's personal financial interests.](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-8-2023)\n\nOn December 20th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy [visited Bakhmut to show support for the defenders.](https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-war-bakhmut-russia-sacrificing-troops-meat-waves/) On January 6th, Russia [launched a powerful assault on the adjacent town of Soledar](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/09/world/russia-ukraine-news), where Ukrainian officials [acknowledged the situation was \"difficult.\"](https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-strikes-bakhmut-donbas-constant-attacks/32215218.html) As of January 10th, there were [competing claims about whether Soledar had fallen or would fall,](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/09/world/russia-ukraine-news) and whether this portended a larger Ukrainian defeat over the coming days." }, { "id": 14457, "title": "Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?", "short_title": "Accredited US Course on AI-Assisted Writing", "url_title": "Accredited US Course on AI-Assisted Writing", "slug": "accredited-us-course-on-ai-assisted-writing", "author_id": 112146, "author_username": "GustavoLacerda", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-10T16:03:42.088343Z", "published_at": "2023-01-18T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.890196Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-18T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-19T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-19T19:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-18T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 104, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14457, "title": "Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-01-10T16:03:42.088343Z", "open_time": "2023-01-18T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-18T23:30:40.684916Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-18T23:30:40.684916Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-19T19:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-19T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-19T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14420/accredited-us-prompt-engineering-course/)\n\n---\n\n\nLarge Language Models (LLMs) [are being used to assist in copy-writing](https://techcrunch.com/2022/08/02/writers-gpt-powered-cowrite-handles-content-drudgery-and-leaves-creativity-to-humans/). [Many such tools](https://renaissancerachel.com/best-ai-writing-tools/) already exist. [According to Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/tomdavenport/2020/11/10/the-future-of-work-now-ai-assisted-writing-with-writercom-and-intuit/?sh=5a4706df2b03), such functions include assistance with grammar, spelling, writing style, conventions, tone and more.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves as **Yes** if an accredited US college or university completes the instruction of such a course for credit before January 1, 2024. Resolution will be determined according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) available before February 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "The instruction period must be longer than 60 days.\n\nThe main focus of the course must be how to use AI-powered writing tools, either generally or focused on one or more such tools, according to the course listing and/or the course website.\n\nThe output of such tools need not be restricted to text generation. Their output may also be in the form of deleting or reorganizing text, writing comments for suggested changes, comments on style, etc.\n\nLink: [List of accredited US colleges and universities](https://www.4icu.org/us/a-z/)", "post_id": 14457, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704082759.436855, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704082759.436855, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.976024228491161 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0038942704965886092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012983441907495109, 0.0, 0.04735857435751489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002378000335105385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004535844344508773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06511144017343348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05062887636409986, 0.0, 8.748174343840716e-05, 0.0016581925552930775, 0.0, 0.02969387767013261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022671607495467996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.036382599610905314, 0.00013237564647172888, 0.0219453844349601, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008871862303147453, 0.020365321023622925, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06014847893841474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015475270301467286, 0.0017571177879369575, 0.020174327172769218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003504649817278546, 0.052527064009571606, 0.002239640883868526, 0.007020536596245228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2912285707467575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005273500427426623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.047104304129575544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30760799723447574, 0.0, 0.6351592109948596, 17.442443987370442 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 18.117879366521873, "coverage": 0.96433114334686, "baseline_score": 23.65340951453292, "spot_peer_score": -15.64127572669124, "peer_archived_score": 18.117879366521873, "baseline_archived_score": 23.65340951453292, "spot_peer_archived_score": -15.64127572669124 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1702712411.6744, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1702712411.6744, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.007086907152156541, 0.9929130928478435 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 316, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14420/accredited-us-prompt-engineering-course/)\n\n---\n\n\nLarge Language Models (LLMs) [are being used to assist in copy-writing](https://techcrunch.com/2022/08/02/writers-gpt-powered-cowrite-handles-content-drudgery-and-leaves-creativity-to-humans/). [Many such tools](https://renaissancerachel.com/best-ai-writing-tools/) already exist. [According to Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/tomdavenport/2020/11/10/the-future-of-work-now-ai-assisted-writing-with-writercom-and-intuit/?sh=5a4706df2b03), such functions include assistance with grammar, spelling, writing style, conventions, tone and more." }, { "id": 14456, "title": "Will Ukraine's exports in 2025 exceed those in 2021?", "short_title": "Ukrainian 2025 Exports above 2021?", "url_title": "Ukrainian 2025 Exports above 2021?", "slug": "ukrainian-2025-exports-above-2021", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-10T15:26:01.577582Z", "published_at": "2023-01-31T01:59:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T08:49:20.300851Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-31T01:59:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-06-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-01-31T01:59:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 73, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14456, "title": "Will Ukraine's exports in 2025 exceed those in 2021?", "created_at": "2023-01-10T15:26:01.577582Z", "open_time": "2023-01-31T01:59:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-31T17:04:45.732660Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-31T17:04:45.732660Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-06-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 and the subsequent war has had significant impacts on the Ukrainian economy. According to a recent estimate by the Ukrainian [Economy Ministry](https://www.me.gov.ua/News/Detail?lang=uk-UA&id=4470bafb-5243-4cb2-a573-5ba15d9c8107&title=MinekonomikiPoperedno), GDP dropped by 30.4% in 2022, with an inflation rate (year-over-year) of approximately [26.60% in December 2022](https://tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/core-inflation-rate). The (partial) loss of [Ukraine's ability to exports its grain](https://www.google.com/search?q=ukraine+food+exports+africa&oq=ukraine+food+exports+africa&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i22i30j0i390l5.3397j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8) also significantly impacted the Global South, especially Northern Africa.\n\nAs the war is soon entering its second year, there is little optimism of a swift resolution of the conflict. According to a [Metaculus forecast](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13985/bilateral-ceasefire-in-ukraine-before-2024/) with 179 forecasters, there is a 27% chance of a bilateral ceasefire or peace-agreement before 2024 (as of January 10, 2022). Even if such a peace agreement came to pass, the costs of rebuilding Ukraine have been estimated at [$350 billion](https://www.google.com/search?q=cost+of+rebuilding+ukraine&oq=cost+of+rebuilding+ukraine&aqs=chrome.0.0i512j0i390l4.3339j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8). \n\nThe war also had a significant impact on exports. According to [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/foreign-direct-investment), the reduction in exports has been significant. They also outline that: \n\n> Ukraine exports mainly steel, coal, fuel and petroleum products, chemicals, machinery and transport equipment and grains like barley, corm and wheat. More than 60% of the exports goes to other former Soviet Republics countries with Russia, Kazkhstan and Belarus being the most important. Others include Turkey and China.\n\nAccording to the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.CD?contextual=default&locations=UA), over the past 20 years, Ukraine’s exports were increasing to a level of $81.53 billion in 2021.\n\n| Year | Experts in current USD (billions) |\n|------|-------------------------------|\n| 2000 | 19.52 |\n| 2005 | 42.59 |\n| 2010 | 65.6 |\n| 2015 | 47.88 |\n| 2020 | 60.8 |\n| 2021 | 81.53 |\n\nUnderstanding how Ukrainian exports may evolve over the next years may be important in understanding the economic reality of Ukraine and its ability to thrive economically, as difficult post-war negotiations may take place.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?contextual=default&indicators=NE.EXP.GNFS.CD&locations=UA\" width='100%' height='500' frameBorder='0' scrolling=\"no\" ></iframe>", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if Ukraine's exports (including goods and services) for the year 2025 are higher than $81.53 billion in 2025 USD. \n\nThis question will resolve **No** if Ukraine's exports (including goods and services) for the year 2025 are equal to or lower than than $81.53 billion in 2025 USD. \n\nThis question will resolve on data based on the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.CD?contextual=default&locations=UA) data series of goods and services exports", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14456, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758589216.329615, "end_time": 1758690829.965593, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758589216.329615, "end_time": 1758690829.965593, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.014737367470486415 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.010222625402585, 6.000896204671645, 0.5824935368738688, 0.09827477539093947, 0.00743766165558475, 0.01854605335613785, 0.0, 0.8166971688029203, 0.018818028544050302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21562164146808224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005412544205777419, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288455.933269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288455.933269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9991583696889652, 0.0008416303110347723 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 209, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 and the subsequent war has had significant impacts on the Ukrainian economy. According to a recent estimate by the Ukrainian [Economy Ministry](https://www.me.gov.ua/News/Detail?lang=uk-UA&id=4470bafb-5243-4cb2-a573-5ba15d9c8107&title=MinekonomikiPoperedno), GDP dropped by 30.4% in 2022, with an inflation rate (year-over-year) of approximately [26.60% in December 2022](https://tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/core-inflation-rate). The (partial) loss of [Ukraine's ability to exports its grain](https://www.google.com/search?q=ukraine+food+exports+africa&oq=ukraine+food+exports+africa&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i22i30j0i390l5.3397j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8) also significantly impacted the Global South, especially Northern Africa.\n\nAs the war is soon entering its second year, there is little optimism of a swift resolution of the conflict. According to a [Metaculus forecast](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13985/bilateral-ceasefire-in-ukraine-before-2024/) with 179 forecasters, there is a 27% chance of a bilateral ceasefire or peace-agreement before 2024 (as of January 10, 2022). Even if such a peace agreement came to pass, the costs of rebuilding Ukraine have been estimated at [$350 billion](https://www.google.com/search?q=cost+of+rebuilding+ukraine&oq=cost+of+rebuilding+ukraine&aqs=chrome.0.0i512j0i390l4.3339j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8). \n\nThe war also had a significant impact on exports. According to [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/foreign-direct-investment), the reduction in exports has been significant. They also outline that: \n\n> Ukraine exports mainly steel, coal, fuel and petroleum products, chemicals, machinery and transport equipment and grains like barley, corm and wheat. More than 60% of the exports goes to other former Soviet Republics countries with Russia, Kazkhstan and Belarus being the most important. Others include Turkey and China.\n\nAccording to the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.CD?contextual=default&locations=UA), over the past 20 years, Ukraine’s exports were increasing to a level of $81.53 billion in 2021.\n\n| Year | Experts in current USD (billions) |\n|------|-------------------------------|\n| 2000 | 19.52 |\n| 2005 | 42.59 |\n| 2010 | 65.6 |\n| 2015 | 47.88 |\n| 2020 | 60.8 |\n| 2021 | 81.53 |\n\nUnderstanding how Ukrainian exports may evolve over the next years may be important in understanding the economic reality of Ukraine and its ability to thrive economically, as difficult post-war negotiations may take place.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?contextual=default&indicators=NE.EXP.GNFS.CD&locations=UA\" width='100%' height='500' frameBorder='0' scrolling=\"no\" ></iframe>" }, { "id": 14452, "title": "Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?", "short_title": "Virgin Orbit Bankruptcy Filing by 2026?", "url_title": "Virgin Orbit Bankruptcy Filing by 2026?", "slug": "virgin-orbit-bankruptcy-filing-by-2026", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-10T00:59:59.449516Z", "published_at": "2023-02-02T14:55:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.530749Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-02T14:55:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-04T06:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-04T06:01:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-02T14:55:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14452, "title": "Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-01-10T00:59:59.449516Z", "open_time": "2023-02-02T14:55:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-04T14:55:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-04T14:55:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-04T06:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-04T06:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-04T06:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Virgin Orbit Holdings, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin_Orbit) is an American company within the Virgin Group which provides launch services for small satellites. The company was formed in 2017 to develop the air-launched [LauncherOne](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LauncherOne) rocket.\n\nThe company was spun off from Virgin Galactic in 2017, and became a publicly traded company in December 2021 after merging with a SPAC; however, this process only [raised](https://parabolicarc.com/2021/12/29/merger-leaves-virgin-orbit-with-less-than-half-of-funding-originally-announced/) $228 million, which was less than half the $483 million the company expected to raise.\n\nAccording to the company's [Q3 2022 earnings report](https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_3caaf6053964cd111903fb66d612b6da/virginorbit/news/2022-11-07_Virgin_Orbit_Announces_Third_Quarter_2022_59.pdf), the company had cash and cash equivalents of $71.2 million as of September 30, 2022.\n\nAs of January 9 2023, [the company's stock](https://ycharts.com/companies/VORB/market_cap) had lost approximately 76% of its value in the last year. After market hours on that date, the company [experienced an anomaly](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/tiny-english-seaside-resort-counts-down-western-europes-first-satellite-launch-2023-01-09/) during a launch attempt that resulted in the loss of a customer payload.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Virgin Orbit Holdings, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before 1 January 2026. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. The question resolves as **No** if no such petition is filed by that date.\n\nOnly petitions filed by Virgin Orbit Holdings, Inc., or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of Virgin Orbit Holdings, Inc.'s business (as judged by moderators) as of January 2023 will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or spin-off companies will not count", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14452, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680570333.836494, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.889 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680570333.836494, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.889 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.030000000000000027, 0.97 ], "means": [ 0.9381579854891126 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.019746017729336655, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3058323220141224, 0.27308960725456716, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 1.2589136292625738, 0.8215788008370493, 3.468659074763629 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.1718332564970217, "coverage": 0.18224475363610756, "baseline_score": 12.978138050388939, "spot_peer_score": 14.2464060519198, "peer_archived_score": 1.1718332564970217, "baseline_archived_score": 12.978138050388939, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.2464060519198 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680570333.852823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680570333.852823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.0327748467439527, 0.9672251532560473 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Virgin Orbit Holdings, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin_Orbit) is an American company within the Virgin Group which provides launch services for small satellites. The company was formed in 2017 to develop the air-launched [LauncherOne](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LauncherOne) rocket.\n\nThe company was spun off from Virgin Galactic in 2017, and became a publicly traded company in December 2021 after merging with a SPAC; however, this process only [raised](https://parabolicarc.com/2021/12/29/merger-leaves-virgin-orbit-with-less-than-half-of-funding-originally-announced/) $228 million, which was less than half the $483 million the company expected to raise.\n\nAccording to the company's [Q3 2022 earnings report](https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_3caaf6053964cd111903fb66d612b6da/virginorbit/news/2022-11-07_Virgin_Orbit_Announces_Third_Quarter_2022_59.pdf), the company had cash and cash equivalents of $71.2 million as of September 30, 2022.\n\nAs of January 9 2023, [the company's stock](https://ycharts.com/companies/VORB/market_cap) had lost approximately 76% of its value in the last year. After market hours on that date, the company [experienced an anomaly](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/tiny-english-seaside-resort-counts-down-western-europes-first-satellite-launch-2023-01-09/) during a launch attempt that resulted in the loss of a customer payload." }, { "id": 14450, "title": "Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?", "short_title": "New US COVID-19 vaccine in 2023", "url_title": "New US COVID-19 vaccine in 2023", "slug": "new-us-covid-19-vaccine-in-2023", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2023-01-09T10:52:33.589950Z", "published_at": "2023-01-10T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.936759Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-10T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-05T18:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-05T18:22:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-10T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14450, "title": "Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?", "created_at": "2023-01-09T10:52:33.589950Z", "open_time": "2023-01-10T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-11T08:54:42.787696Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-11T08:54:42.787696Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-05T18:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-05T18:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-05T18:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Many COVID vaccine possibilities are being explored, [including nasal drops](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-vaccines-nasal-sprays-pills-breakthroughs-2023/). Some [have speculated](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg25634192-400-why-we-probably-wont-get-new-covid-19-vaccines-in-2023/) that there may be a high bar for new vaccine approvals. The authors point out that (1) a new vaccine would likely need to prove it is more effective than the existing ones, even though the existing ones are many variants behind the type of Covid we have in 2023, and (2) the FDA is less likely to issue an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) due to a perceived reduction in the state of emergency of COVID-19.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, the US FDA authorizes (or grants an Emergency Use Authorization) for a vaccine targeting COVID-19 that wasn't available before January 1, 2023, and **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "* The authorization must be for the general public, i.e. a vaccine only for people with some co-morbidities, or only for people age 65+, would not qualify.\n\n* Amendments to existing emergency use authorizations (for example, those issued for Pfizer and Moderns's bivalent vaccines) do not qualify.\n\n* The \"new\" part of the vaccine must be the part that targets COVID-19. 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times president [Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luiz_In%C3%A1cio_Lula_da_Silva).\n\nHe [left the country to the US state of Florida](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/30/americas/brazil-jair-bolsonaro-us-lula-inauguration-intl-latam/index.html) before Lula took office, and has remained there ever since.\n\nOn Sunday 01/08/2023, one week after Lula's inauguration, Bolsonaro's supporters [stormed Congress, the Supreme Court and presidential palace](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/pro-bolsonaro-protesters-storm-brazils-congress-in-capital/2023/01/08/4885e6a8-8f88-11ed-90f8-53661ac5d9b9_story.html).\nThis event has been [condemned by multiple leaders in the Americas and elsewhere](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/global-leaders-condemn-bolsonaro-supporters-assault-brazil-govt-buildings-2023-01-08/), with members of US Congress (such as [Joaquin Castro](https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/01/08/bolsonaro-brazil-joaquin-castro-acostanr-intv-vpx.cnn) and [Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez](https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1612211900326215681)) asking for the US to extradite Bolsonaro.", "resolution_criteria": "- The question will resolve as **yes** if Bolsonaro is extradited from the US to Brazil. \n- The question will resolve as **no** the moment Bolsonaro leaves the US by his own will (either to Brazil or elsewhere), he is extradited to any other country, or he dies while still on US soil.\n- The question will resolve as **ambiguous** if by the the resolve date Bolsonaro is still alive and hasn't left the US", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14448, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680190789.509297, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.049 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680190789.509297, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.049 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"open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Rare earth magnets are a type of magnet made from alloys of rare earth elements, which are a set of metals that are found in the earth's crust in small quantities. These magnets are extremely strong and have many important applications in a range of technologies, including wind turbines, electric vehicles, smartphones, and computer hard drives.\n\nThe European Union (EU) imports around [16,000 tonnes per year](https://eit.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2021_09-24_ree_cluster_report2.pdf) of rare earth magnets from China, accounting for around [98%](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europe-races-fix-its-rare-earths-import-dependency-andy-home-2021-10-08/) of the bloc's needs. This contrasts with just 1,000 tonnes of domestic production. A report by the [European Raw Materials Alliance](https://eit.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2021_09-24_ree_cluster_report2.pdf) outlines that domestic competition is hamstrung due to a lack of supply chain diversification, transparency, industrial capacity, and strategic investments. The statistics and focus of the report are on [neodymium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neodymium_magnet) rare earth permanent magnets, also known as Nd-Fe-B for their elemental composition. Another type of rare earth permanent magnet is [samarium-cobalt](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare-earth_magnet#Types).\n\nThe dependence on imports for such a critical component highlights the need for the EU to diversify its sources of rare earth magnets and to develop its own domestic production capabilities or shift import reliance to other sources in an effort to diversify, as this reliance on China for rare earth magnets also exposes the EU to potential supply chain disruptions and price fluctuations, which can have significant economic consequences. In September 2022, the European Commission announced the [Critical Raw Materials Act](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/STATEMENT_22_5523), which outlines the bloc’s efforts to ensuring a “strong and sustainable level playing field” as well as “more resilient supply chains” within a “European network” that diversifies away from a strong reliance on China with respect to such crucial materials.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if less than 75% of European Union imports of rare earth magnets (Nd-Fe-B) originate in China for the year of 2030. Resolution will be determined according to reports published by the European Raw Materials Alliance, which [was launched by the European Commission in 2020](https://single-market-economy.ec.europa.eu/sectors/raw-materials/areas-specific-interest/rare-earth-elements-permanent-magnets-and-motors_en). If the resolution source does not publish an update that clearly states the percentage of imports of rare earth permanent magnets (Nd-Fe-B) from China for 2030 before January 1, 2033, Metaculus may use an alternate credible source or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**. If an alternate source is necessary and multiple sources publish estimates, this will resolve as **Yes** if any credible source satisfies these criteria.", "fine_print": "If a member country leaves the EU or another country joins, the final relevant data is with respect to the bloc's total needs in 2030, irrespective of the composition of the European Union.", "post_id": 14442, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757059635.536891, "end_time": 1768871863.870919, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757059635.536891, "end_time": 1768871863.870919, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3497317826603517 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14816789822404922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.0, 0.5394303752836035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7899439243127377, 0.0, 1.8186368009236564, 0.0, 0.03477352548891289, 0.6151337240492557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47078787023876, 0.6984449301569673, 0.4086904201879483, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09452424244796935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569435305951722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3526517851691326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287818.256788, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287818.256788, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8100486735081233, 0.1899513264918767 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Rare earth magnets are a type of magnet made from alloys of rare earth elements, which are a set of metals that are found in the earth's crust in small quantities. These magnets are extremely strong and have many important applications in a range of technologies, including wind turbines, electric vehicles, smartphones, and computer hard drives.\n\nThe European Union (EU) imports around [16,000 tonnes per year](https://eit.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2021_09-24_ree_cluster_report2.pdf) of rare earth magnets from China, accounting for around [98%](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europe-races-fix-its-rare-earths-import-dependency-andy-home-2021-10-08/) of the bloc's needs. This contrasts with just 1,000 tonnes of domestic production. A report by the [European Raw Materials Alliance](https://eit.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2021_09-24_ree_cluster_report2.pdf) outlines that domestic competition is hamstrung due to a lack of supply chain diversification, transparency, industrial capacity, and strategic investments. The statistics and focus of the report are on [neodymium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neodymium_magnet) rare earth permanent magnets, also known as Nd-Fe-B for their elemental composition. Another type of rare earth permanent magnet is [samarium-cobalt](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare-earth_magnet#Types).\n\nThe dependence on imports for such a critical component highlights the need for the EU to diversify its sources of rare earth magnets and to develop its own domestic production capabilities or shift import reliance to other sources in an effort to diversify, as this reliance on China for rare earth magnets also exposes the EU to potential supply chain disruptions and price fluctuations, which can have significant economic consequences. In September 2022, the European Commission announced the [Critical Raw Materials Act](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/STATEMENT_22_5523), which outlines the bloc’s efforts to ensuring a “strong and sustainable level playing field” as well as “more resilient supply chains” within a “European network” that diversifies away from a strong reliance on China with respect to such crucial materials." }, { "id": 14441, "title": "Will at least three lithium mines operate in the US before 2030?", "short_title": "3 Operating US Lithium Mines Before 2030", "url_title": "3 Operating US Lithium Mines Before 2030", "slug": "3-operating-us-lithium-mines-before-2030", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-08T14:34:35.201151Z", "published_at": "2023-01-15T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T07:43:16.930425Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-15T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-01-15T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14441, "title": "Will at least three lithium mines operate in the US before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-01-08T14:34:35.201151Z", "open_time": "2023-01-15T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-15T19:34:21.022330Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-15T19:34:21.022330Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Lithium is an important element in the production of batteries, particularly for use in electric vehicles (EVs). In addition to its use in EV batteries, lithium is also used in batteries for portable electronics, such as laptops and cell phones, as well as in batteries for renewable energy storage systems, such as those used in solar panel arrays. The demand for lithium has been increasing in recent years due to the growing popularity of EVs, as well as the increasing adoption of renewable energy sources like solar panels. As a result, the production of lithium has become a significant industry, with countries such as Australia, Chile, and Argentina among the top producers of the metal, [accounting for 86%](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/charted-lithium-production-by-country-1995-2020/) of worldwide production in 2020. Lithium production has become a potential national security concern for countries aiming to decarbonise their economies amidst geopolitical tensions. \n\nHowever, as of early 2023, the United States only has [one operational lithium mine](https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/lithium-mining-in-the-united-states#mines), specifically in the state of [Nevada](https://www.albemarle.com/news/albemarle-announces-expansion-of-nevada-site-to-increase-domestic-production-of-lithium). In 2020, the total lithium production in the US was [900 tonnes](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/charted-lithium-production-by-country-1995-2020/), equating to roughly 1% of the worldwide production and being en par with Portugal’s output, in which the European Union's only lithium mine is operational.\n\nThere have been some plans for new lithium mining projects that have progressed relatively far along the regulatory process, such as [Thacker Pass mine in Nevada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thacker_Pass_Lithium_Mine). However, many of such undertakings have been met with local opposition on a variety of grounds, delaying the process: [Three-quarters of lithium reserves](https://www.msci.com/www/blog-posts/mining-energy-transition-metals/02531033947?te=1&nl=climate-forward&emc=edit_clim_20221011) are within 35 miles of Native American reservations, which have sparked local opposition to [new mining projects](https://grist.org/protest/native-opposition-to-nevada-lithium-mine-grows/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least three mines at different sites in the United States of America have operated and produced lithium at any time between January 1, 2023 to January 1, 2030. Evidence of an operating mine is either the statement at the respective company's website that the mine is operational or evidence reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that at least 1 ton of lithium was extracted within one calendar year, or both. This includes any mine existing before January 1, 2023 so long as it meets the requirement to be considered operating during the specified time.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if two or less than two lithium mines have operated in the United States before January 1, 2030", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14441, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758354186.090481, "end_time": 1759413425.695137, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758354186.090481, "end_time": 1759413425.695137, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6510242128244949 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.21127762784985343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4232326753374705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007980258807527762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01960959462418559, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35034195902508225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18967896317068483, 0.0, 0.43960376710366483, 0.2646539099550289, 0.0, 0.6088411856803974, 0.0, 1.3842499883944144, 2.4538948786450634, 0.0, 0.6560824580968005, 0.08181124203511007, 0.09329258471159352, 1.425204150747835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8395065736534452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10592775239849204, 0.0, 0.7827061049060935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6611898594443324, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289184.527893, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289184.527893, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4153672861217734, 0.5846327138782266 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 21, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 139, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Lithium is an important element in the production of batteries, particularly for use in electric vehicles (EVs). In addition to its use in EV batteries, lithium is also used in batteries for portable electronics, such as laptops and cell phones, as well as in batteries for renewable energy storage systems, such as those used in solar panel arrays. The demand for lithium has been increasing in recent years due to the growing popularity of EVs, as well as the increasing adoption of renewable energy sources like solar panels. As a result, the production of lithium has become a significant industry, with countries such as Australia, Chile, and Argentina among the top producers of the metal, [accounting for 86%](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/charted-lithium-production-by-country-1995-2020/) of worldwide production in 2020. Lithium production has become a potential national security concern for countries aiming to decarbonise their economies amidst geopolitical tensions. \n\nHowever, as of early 2023, the United States only has [one operational lithium mine](https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/lithium-mining-in-the-united-states#mines), specifically in the state of [Nevada](https://www.albemarle.com/news/albemarle-announces-expansion-of-nevada-site-to-increase-domestic-production-of-lithium). In 2020, the total lithium production in the US was [900 tonnes](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/charted-lithium-production-by-country-1995-2020/), equating to roughly 1% of the worldwide production and being en par with Portugal’s output, in which the European Union's only lithium mine is operational.\n\nThere have been some plans for new lithium mining projects that have progressed relatively far along the regulatory process, such as [Thacker Pass mine in Nevada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thacker_Pass_Lithium_Mine). However, many of such undertakings have been met with local opposition on a variety of grounds, delaying the process: [Three-quarters of lithium reserves](https://www.msci.com/www/blog-posts/mining-energy-transition-metals/02531033947?te=1&nl=climate-forward&emc=edit_clim_20221011) are within 35 miles of Native American reservations, which have sparked local opposition to [new mining projects](https://grist.org/protest/native-opposition-to-nevada-lithium-mine-grows/)." }, { "id": 14432, "title": "Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023?", "short_title": "China's Economy vs India's in 2023", "url_title": "China's Economy vs India's in 2023", "slug": "chinas-economy-vs-indias-in-2023", "author_id": 122963, "author_username": "Doryphore", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-08T00:45:42.229111Z", "published_at": "2023-02-05T14:01:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.848514Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-05T14:01:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T18:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T18:38:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-04T15:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-04T15:43:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-05T14:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14432, "title": "Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023?", "created_at": "2023-01-08T00:45:42.229111Z", "open_time": "2023-02-05T14:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-07T14:01:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-07T14:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-04T15:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-04T15:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-04T15:43:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T18:38:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T18:38:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As the two most populous nations on the planet, both at somewhat similar stages of economic development, the economic prospects of China and India are frequently compared. A [FocusEconomics article](https://www.focus-economics.com/blog/posts/india-vs-china-what-is-the-long-term-outlook-for-asias-two-behemoths) describes their economic history and outlook as follows:\n\n>When considering China and India, in recent decades China has been the more attractive economic prospect. The country’s nominal GDP of USD 18 trillion is roughly six times that of India. China has historically had a larger population. And in the previous decade, China’s real GDP growth outpaced India’s by over 1.5 percentage points annually.\n>\n>However, the tables are set to be at least partly turned in the coming years. According to IMF data, China’s population is now in decline. By the end of our forecast horizon in 2027, China will have lost 8 million people; In contrast, India will have gained over 75 million and stolen China’s crown as the world’s most populous country. Moreover, India’s real GDP growth will be over 2 percentage points higher than China’s every year over our forecast horizon.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?indicators=NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG&locations=CN-IN&start=2000\" width='100%' height='500' frameBorder='0' scrolling=\"no\" ></iframe>", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if China's real local currency GDP growth rate exceeds that of India's for the year 2023, according to [data provided by the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=CN-IN). If China's growth rate to a precision of one decimal place as shown on the linked chart is the same or lower than India's this resolves as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14432, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704044164.937921, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704044164.937921, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.034423869525433734 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.45860060969422, 8.513996705302603, 1.2793479183357395, 1.201748021550561, 0.26487459163151467, 0.052640372796005884, 0.48656608213858044, 0.28276866264047956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732171965244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3017051033688969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.034291637691358394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05774320562100098, 0.37183076305421514, 0.005502160073414974, 0.14309136881469264, 0.0, 0.0021937114606689822, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19171643999201327, 0.03171391993745443, 0.0, 0.012756731128426116, 0.0, 0.003597028756780682, 0.0, 0.0022076100250565805, 0.007124099762028338, 0.0, 0.0874988672745223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024383113456903305, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007375172335998631, 0.0, 0.001511304389081846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.830241960375898, "coverage": 0.9995839011333847, "baseline_score": 52.42980617510279, "spot_peer_score": 4.7721690916405946, "peer_archived_score": 6.830241960375898, "baseline_archived_score": 52.42980617510279, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.7721690916405946 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704044164.965765, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704044164.965765, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9994948514177093, 0.0005051485822907026 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 258, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As the two most populous nations on the planet, both at somewhat similar stages of economic development, the economic prospects of China and India are frequently compared. A [FocusEconomics article](https://www.focus-economics.com/blog/posts/india-vs-china-what-is-the-long-term-outlook-for-asias-two-behemoths) describes their economic history and outlook as follows:\n\n>When considering China and India, in recent decades China has been the more attractive economic prospect. The country’s nominal GDP of USD 18 trillion is roughly six times that of India. China has historically had a larger population. And in the previous decade, China’s real GDP growth outpaced India’s by over 1.5 percentage points annually.\n>\n>However, the tables are set to be at least partly turned in the coming years. According to IMF data, China’s population is now in decline. By the end of our forecast horizon in 2027, China will have lost 8 million people; In contrast, India will have gained over 75 million and stolen China’s crown as the world’s most populous country. Moreover, India’s real GDP growth will be over 2 percentage points higher than China’s every year over our forecast horizon.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?indicators=NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG&locations=CN-IN&start=2000\" width='100%' height='500' frameBorder='0' scrolling=\"no\" ></iframe>" }, { "id": 14422, "title": "Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?", "short_title": "U.S. Debt Default Before 2024?", "url_title": "U.S. Debt Default Before 2024?", "slug": "us-debt-default-before-2024", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-07T05:10:19.335555Z", "published_at": "2023-01-10T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.919260Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-10T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-10T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 183, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14422, "title": "Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-01-07T05:10:19.335555Z", "open_time": "2023-01-10T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-10T16:45:00.251217Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-10T16:45:00.251217Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [U.S. debt ceiling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt_ceiling) is a statutory limit set by Congress on the amount of national debt that the federal government is allowed to incur. When the government approaches the debt ceiling, it must either seek an increase in the limit from Congress or take measures to reduce its borrowing.\n\nIn the past, the U.S. has come close to breaching the debt ceiling on [several occasions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_debt_ceiling), and in some cases, the government has temporarily suspended the limit or taken other measures to avoid default.\n\nThe US has failed to pay debt obligations on time on several occasions. [This Reason article](https://reason.com/2021/11/19/no-the-united-states-has-not-always-paid-its-debts/) describes five cases which could be characterized as default, and [this Congressional Research Service (CRS) report](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44704) explores three of them in more detail. The most recent occurrence was the 1979 \"mini-default\", when a technical error led to the late payment to holders of Treasury securities. CRS says the following about the overall record of US debt repayment:\n\n>The historical record appears not to support the contention that the U.S. government has had an unblemished payment record since its origin. Under any reasonable definition of default, the federal government defaulted in 1814. The Treasury Secretary of the time, Alexander Dallas, referred to “every sort of embarrassment.” The current website of the U.S. Treasury notes that Secretary Dallas faced a “bankrupt” Treasury. The failure of the Treasury to pay interest on its securities due to Boston banks in 1814 represents an unambiguous default event.\n\nRegarding the 1979 \"mini-default\" CRS says:\n\n>Claims that payment delays to small investors holding Treasury securities in the spring of 1979 constituted a default or a “technical default” appear weaker. Delays affected only a relatively small proportion of Treasury securities and the federal government responded to mitigate the inconvenience suffered by those investors. The legal document setting out terms for Treasury securities contained no default clause.\n\nAccording to a [CNN article](https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/05/economy/debt-ceiling-fight-goldman-sachs/index.html) about the potential for a battle over the debt ceiling in 2023 (published December 5, 2022)\n\n>Even though federal debt is likely to reach the statutory limit in the next few weeks, Goldman Sachs said the Treasury Department should be able to borrow as usual until late February or early March. At that point, the government could tap a stockpile of $500 billion in cash to finance the deficit until August.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, the President or Secretary of the Treasury announces that the US has defaulted payment on any of its sovereign debt obligations; OR any of the three major credit ratings agencies (Standard & Poors, Fitch, and Moody's) announce US has defaulted payment on any of its sovereign debt obligations.\n\nMoody's, for example, [defines a sovereign issuer as in default when](https://www.moodys.com/sites/products/defaultresearch/2005600000424157.pdf) one or more of the following conditions are met:\n\n> * 1) There is a missed or delayed disbursement of interest and/or principal, even if the delayed payment is made within the grace period, if any.\n\n> * 2) A distressed exchange occurs, where:\n\n> > * a) The issuer offers bondholders a new security or package of securities that amount to a diminished financial obligation such as new debt instruments with lower coupon or par value.\n\n> > * b) The exchange had the apparent purpose of helping the borrower avoid a \"stronger\" event of default (such as a missed interest or principal payment)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14422, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704075038.045085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 183, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704075038.045085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 183, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.011213364022111219 ], "histogram": [ [ 14.86306326125645, 8.435284558137582, 1.1637624854285096, 0.1470780918302031, 0.007463067259616176, 0.2032298547877765, 0.002754203395012781, 0.0004542797484731592, 0.003733178269097729, 0.014309669548857372, 0.16165036996228904, 0.01499002640472483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011762554010245436, 0.0005437185466577906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020719190370748833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5053436026419691, 0.0, 0.002706832484505592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014042051001981096, 0.0, 3.6246629312320096e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 7.280330113937017e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001684442164008544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00041668225212705673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012745234160900532 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.583547110736447, "coverage": 0.9999570242566199, "baseline_score": 96.11714312150052, "spot_peer_score": 13.62807666048274, "peer_archived_score": 5.583547110736447, "baseline_archived_score": 96.11714312150052, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.62807666048274 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704075038.073514, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 183, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704075038.073514, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 183, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 26, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 503, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [U.S. debt ceiling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt_ceiling) is a statutory limit set by Congress on the amount of national debt that the federal government is allowed to incur. When the government approaches the debt ceiling, it must either seek an increase in the limit from Congress or take measures to reduce its borrowing.\n\nIn the past, the U.S. has come close to breaching the debt ceiling on [several occasions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_debt_ceiling), and in some cases, the government has temporarily suspended the limit or taken other measures to avoid default.\n\nThe US has failed to pay debt obligations on time on several occasions. [This Reason article](https://reason.com/2021/11/19/no-the-united-states-has-not-always-paid-its-debts/) describes five cases which could be characterized as default, and [this Congressional Research Service (CRS) report](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44704) explores three of them in more detail. The most recent occurrence was the 1979 \"mini-default\", when a technical error led to the late payment to holders of Treasury securities. CRS says the following about the overall record of US debt repayment:\n\n>The historical record appears not to support the contention that the U.S. government has had an unblemished payment record since its origin. Under any reasonable definition of default, the federal government defaulted in 1814. The Treasury Secretary of the time, Alexander Dallas, referred to “every sort of embarrassment.” The current website of the U.S. Treasury notes that Secretary Dallas faced a “bankrupt” Treasury. The failure of the Treasury to pay interest on its securities due to Boston banks in 1814 represents an unambiguous default event.\n\nRegarding the 1979 \"mini-default\" CRS says:\n\n>Claims that payment delays to small investors holding Treasury securities in the spring of 1979 constituted a default or a “technical default” appear weaker. Delays affected only a relatively small proportion of Treasury securities and the federal government responded to mitigate the inconvenience suffered by those investors. The legal document setting out terms for Treasury securities contained no default clause.\n\nAccording to a [CNN article](https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/05/economy/debt-ceiling-fight-goldman-sachs/index.html) about the potential for a battle over the debt ceiling in 2023 (published December 5, 2022)\n\n>Even though federal debt is likely to reach the statutory limit in the next few weeks, Goldman Sachs said the Treasury Department should be able to borrow as usual until late February or early March. At that point, the government could tap a stockpile of $500 billion in cash to finance the deficit until August." }, { "id": 14420, "title": "Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?", "short_title": "Accredited US Prompt-Engineering Course", "url_title": "Accredited US Prompt-Engineering Course", "slug": "accredited-us-prompt-engineering-course", "author_id": 112146, "author_username": "GustavoLacerda", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-07T04:11:35.069046Z", "published_at": "2023-01-10T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.568902Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-10T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-01T17:37:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-01T17:37:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-10T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 110, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14420, "title": "Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-01-07T04:11:35.069046Z", "open_time": "2023-01-10T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-11T01:07:13.220000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-11T01:07:13.220000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-01T17:37:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-01T17:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-01T17:37:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14457/accredited-us-course-on-ai-assisted-writing/)\n\n---\n\nIn the context of Large Language Models (LLMs), prompts are inputs, to which the LLM responds. \"Prompt-engineering\" refers to the art of crafting inputs so as to increase the chance of getting a desired output.\n\nPrompt-engineering has been used to get LLMs to do many things, e.g. write code, circumvent LLM safety mechanisms, and achieve higher performance on mathematics and science problems (e.g. [chain-of-thought prompting](https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.11903))\n\nAn [online course on Prompt Engineering](https://learnprompting.org/) already seems to exist, but it's unclear how substantial it is and it does not seem to be affiliated with any university.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves as **Yes** if an accredited US college or university completes the instruction of such a course for credit before January 1, 2024. Resolution will be determined according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) available before February 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "A course on AI-assisted writing would be considered distinct, and would not qualify.\n\nThe instruction period (i.e. the time interval between the first and last lecture) must be longer than 60 days.\n\nPrompt engineering must be the main focus of the course according to the university's course listing and/or the course website.\n\nLink: [List of accredited US universities](https://www.4icu.org/us/a-z/)", "post_id": 14420, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056566.971393, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056566.971393, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], 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"interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056567.002339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9985515817796671, 0.001448418220332954 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 310, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14457/accredited-us-course-on-ai-assisted-writing/)\n\n---\n\nIn the context of Large Language Models (LLMs), prompts are inputs, to which the LLM responds. \"Prompt-engineering\" refers to the art of crafting inputs so as to increase the chance of getting a desired output.\n\nPrompt-engineering has been used to get LLMs to do many things, e.g. write code, circumvent LLM safety mechanisms, and achieve higher performance on mathematics and science problems (e.g. [chain-of-thought prompting](https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.11903))\n\nAn [online course on Prompt Engineering](https://learnprompting.org/) already seems to exist, but it's unclear how substantial it is and it does not seem to be affiliated with any university." }, { "id": 14415, "title": "Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?", "short_title": "Progress on LLM Sample Complexity Before 2026", "url_title": "Progress on LLM Sample Complexity Before 2026", "slug": "progress-on-llm-sample-complexity-before-2026", "author_id": 119604, "author_username": "Lawrence", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-06T18:43:27.483309Z", "published_at": "2023-01-07T09:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-08T12:34:04.004404Z", 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"2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2341, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Training and Compute", "slug": "ai-training-and-compute", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aitraining8.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:01:38.134519Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2344, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Technical Benchmarks", "slug": "ai-technical-benchmarks", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/technical.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:01:38.281325Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2344, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Technical Benchmarks", "slug": "ai-technical-benchmarks", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/technical.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:01:38.281325Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14415, "title": "Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-01-06T18:43:27.483309Z", "open_time": "2023-01-07T09:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-09T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-09T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Large Language Models (LLMs) are famously data hungry, with the largest among today's models requiring >1T tokens for optimal training. This high sample complexity has several important implications. For one thing, as [reported by Epoch](https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.04325) recently, current LLMs may already be leveraging almost all available high-quality text data, and the stock is not growing anywhere near fast enough to sustain the current rate of progress. For another, high data requirements lead to high compute requirements, meaning that only well-resourced actors are able to train LLMs. If techniques for making better use of available data during LLM pretraining were to be invented, this might remove data as a bottleneck to progress, and could increase the dispersion of powerful models among actors.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a research paper describing a new LLM, with improved pretraining data efficiency as one of the key findings, is published and cited at least 200 times over the year following its publication, according to [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/). For reference, the [GLaM paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.06905) (which would meet the findings requirement) accrued 59 citations between December 13, 2021 and Jan 9, 2023, according to Google Scholar.\n\nThe paper must be published before January 1, 2026, the one year period for accrued citations is counted from the date the paper is published and does not need to end before January 1, 2026. For example, this period would begin on the date a qualifying paper first appears on arXiv or is first publicly accessible at the website of an organization which created the associated language model. A paper need not be peer reviewed, preprints qualify.", "fine_print": "* Whether a model is a Large Language Model will be judged by Metaculus according to information from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), but generally speaking, any very large (>10B parameter) model using Transformer architecture that has scores on standard NLP benchmarks at least as high as GPT-3 will count. This question is specifically interested in _pretraining_ data efficiency: adaptation techniques that begin from a foundation model, such as RLHF, do not count.", "post_id": 14415, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758371471.904474, "end_time": 1759107736.682249, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758371471.904474, "end_time": 1759107736.682249, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5572665864178983 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6419315407681068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45972621534782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1535851000440937, 0.8000117632316404, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38296948584461915, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7490672709776599, 0.18562954364815923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20077883994766343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288016.239848, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288016.239848, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.607961686755994, 0.3920383132440059 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Large Language Models (LLMs) are famously data hungry, with the largest among today's models requiring >1T tokens for optimal training. This high sample complexity has several important implications. For one thing, as [reported by Epoch](https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.04325) recently, current LLMs may already be leveraging almost all available high-quality text data, and the stock is not growing anywhere near fast enough to sustain the current rate of progress. For another, high data requirements lead to high compute requirements, meaning that only well-resourced actors are able to train LLMs. If techniques for making better use of available data during LLM pretraining were to be invented, this might remove data as a bottleneck to progress, and could increase the dispersion of powerful models among actors." }, { "id": 14413, "title": "Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?", "short_title": "NATO tanks to Ukraine by 2024", "url_title": "NATO tanks to Ukraine by 2024", "slug": "nato-tanks-to-ukraine-by-2024", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-06T10:54:51.684026Z", "published_at": "2023-01-07T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.160437Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-07T11:05:59.976483Z", "comment_count": 46, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-02-24T12:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-24T12:52:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-07T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 175, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14413, "title": "Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?", "created_at": "2023-01-06T10:54:51.684026Z", "open_time": "2023-01-07T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-07T13:18:04.633420Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-07T13:18:04.633420Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-24T12:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-02-24T12:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-02-24T12:52:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "NATO countries have sent a variety of military equipment to Ukraine in support of its defence against the Russian invasion. This includes drones such as the [Bayraktar TB2](https://www.businessinsider.com/how-turkish-baykar-tb2-drone-gave-ukraine-edge-against-russia-2022-9?r=US&IR=T), anti-tank weapons like the [NLAW](https://defbrief.com/2022/04/28/uk-speeds-up-nlaw-purchases-after-missile-deliveries-to-ukraine/), artillery and long-range rocket systems like the [HIMARS](https://time.com/6244479/himars-rockets-ukraine-russia/#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20has%20supplied%20at,HIMARS%20rockets%20provided%20to%20Ukraine.), and air-defence systems like the [Patriot systems](https://www.airforce-technology.com/features/patriot-missiles-to-ukraine-us-regaining-escalation-dominance/#:~:text=The%20addition%20of%20the%20Patriot,heights%20up%20to%2079%2C000ft.). \n\nPoland has also sent over [200 Soviet-designed T-72 main battle tanks](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-04-29/card/poland-has-sent-more-than-200-tanks-to-ukraine-Krwar3DCPzHJJk4UMVh4#:~:text=The%20T%2D72%20tanks%20were,benefactor%20within%20the%20European%20Union.). However, Ukraine has so far not received any NATO/Western main battle tanks. Main battle tanks (MBTs) are armored fighting vehicles designed for front-line combat, characterized by heavy armor, high mobility, and powerful armament. NATO MBTs are generally considered to be some of the best in the world. \n\nIn early 2023, France promised to deliver [light battle tanks]( https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-france-tanks-ukraine-war-volodymyr-zelenskyy-europe/) to Ukraine (MX-10 RC armored fighting vehicles), which has also led to the US and Germany promising to send [armored infantry fighting vehicles](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/05/germany-tanks-ukraine-russia-war) to Ukraine.\n\nAnd while the [‘Death of the Tank’](https://cepa.org/article/the-tanks-death-has-been-exaggerated/) has been a hotly debated topic for over [four decades now](https://medium.com/war-is-boring/why-the-death-of-the-tank-is-greatly-exaggerated-751f5ccd091), the prospect of Western main battle tanks could be [“a major boost to their battlefield capability”](https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/12/01/nato-chief-hints-at-sending-modern-tanks-to-ukraine/), which is something that the Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg has [“hinted at”.](https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/12/01/nato-chief-hints-at-sending-modern-tanks-to-ukraine/)\n\nAccording to a [European Security & Defence](https://euro-sd.com/2021/09/articles/exclusive/23961/main-battle-tanks-mbts-in-nato/) report from 2021 and [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_equipment_of_NATO), the following main battle tanks are currently in use in the NATO alliance and make up the vast majority of main battle tanks across the current member nations.\n\n***Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country before 2024?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, Ukraine is credibly reported to have received any of the standard NATO main battle tanks (including variations): [Abrams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M1_Abrams), [Altay](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Altay_(main_battle_tank)), [Ariete](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariete), [Challenger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Challenger_2), [Leopard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopard_2), and [Leclerc](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leclerc_tank).\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if Ukraine is not reported to have received any of the above listed main battle tanks before January 1, 2024.\n\n[fine-print]\nIf Ukraine receives further main battle tanks from the Soviet era like the T-72, this will not affect question resolution.\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14413, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1677242590.083606, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 175, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1677242590.083606, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 175, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 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