Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3460
{ "count": 6371, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3480", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3440", "results": [ { "id": 18690, "title": "Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Black Sea Grain Deal Revived in September?", "url_title": "Black Sea Grain Deal Revived in September?", "slug": "black-sea-grain-deal-revived-in-september", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-07T16:19:28.449406Z", "published_at": "2023-09-08T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.223540Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-08T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T22:00:28.449000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T22:00:28.449000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-09-08T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 137, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18690, "title": "Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-09-07T16:19:28.449406Z", "open_time": "2023-09-08T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-12T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-12T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T22:00:28.449000Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T22:00:28.449000Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*The background has been copied and updated from [this previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17554/black-sea-grain-deal-extended-in-july-2023/).*\n\nFollowing the [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) both countries agreed to the [Black Sea Grain Initiative](https://unctad.org/news/black-sea-grain-initiative-what-it-and-why-its-important-world), which [Wikipedia describes as follows](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Grain_Initiative):\n\n>The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February [2022] led to a complete halt of maritime grain shipments from Ukraine, previously a major exporter via the Black Sea. Additionally Russia temporarily halted its grain exports, further exacerbating the situation. This resulted in a rise in world food prices and the threat of famine in lower-income countries, and accusation that Russia weaponizing food supplies. To address the issue, discussions began in April, hosted by Turkey (which controls the maritime routes from the Black Sea) and supported by the UN. The resulting agreement was signed in Istanbul on 22 July 2022, valid for a period of 120 days. The July agreement created procedures to safely export grain from certain ports to attempt to address the 2022 food crisis. A joint coordination and inspection center was set up in Turkey, with the UN serving as secretariat.\n>\n> . . .\n>\n>The original agreement was set to expire on 19 November 2022. Russia suspended its participation in the agreement for several days due to a drone attack on Russian naval ships elsewhere in the Black Sea, but rejoined following mediation. On 17 November 2022, the UN and Ukraine announced that the agreement had been extended for a further 120 days. In March 2023, Turkey and the UN announced that they secured a second extension for at least another 60 days. In May 2023, the deal was once again extended for 60 days, expiring on 18 July.\n\nThe grain deal [expired in July](https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/07/1138752) after Russia withdrew. In early September, Türkiye (formerly Turkey) [has been in talks](https://www.npr.org/2023/09/04/1197544117/russia-ukraine-grain-deal-turkey) with Russia to revive the deal, though as of September 7, 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far held firm to demands such as only returning to the deal [when western nations lift restrictions on banking and logistics](https://www.npr.org/2023/09/04/1197544117/russia-ukraine-grain-deal-turkey).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2023, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the Black Sea Grain Initiative has been reinstated. To qualify, both Ukraine and Russia must agree to the reinstatement; if it is reported that the deal has been reinstated but either Ukraine or Russia is no longer a party to the agreement then the question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* This question will still resolve as **Yes** even if the reinstatement is reported to alter the [original terms](https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative/resources), so long as credible sources refer to the Black Sea Grain Initiative as being revived or reimplemented, even under a different name. If there are conflicting reports or statements Metaculus will rely primarily on official statements from the United Nations and may resolve the question as **Ambiguous** if the situation is unclear.\n* This question will resolve as **No** if an agreement is announced but the start date of the renewed agreement is not before October 1, 2023.", "post_id": 18690, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696105408.481811, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 137, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696105408.481811, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 137, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.03552042292650872 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.542301743606444, 4.462239142090681, 0.02937573163132362, 0.18958349304721014, 0.026249305844542752, 0.21120161379456281, 0.016820369758338706, 0.19413387893267395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000532187118704045, 9.561219646711202e-05, 4.665879563789989e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.750531798631938, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025795578668252835, 0.9582639615131301, 0.020702654028239936, 0.0036176255982974886, 0.029618765798681015, 0.0, 0.0006606699318806404, 0.0007226656031570734, 0.0, 7.723700061153951e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47238872491383194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009988875108506183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022756489207320145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.662148174516192, "coverage": 0.9996576861904074, "baseline_score": 92.55653752960356, "spot_peer_score": -0.588213322521563, "peer_archived_score": 6.662148174516192, "baseline_archived_score": 92.55653752960356, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.588213322521563 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696105408.518292, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 137, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696105408.518292, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 137, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 427, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*The background has been copied and updated from [this previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17554/black-sea-grain-deal-extended-in-july-2023/).*\n\nFollowing the [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) both countries agreed to the [Black Sea Grain Initiative](https://unctad.org/news/black-sea-grain-initiative-what-it-and-why-its-important-world), which [Wikipedia describes as follows](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Grain_Initiative):\n\n>The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February [2022] led to a complete halt of maritime grain shipments from Ukraine, previously a major exporter via the Black Sea. Additionally Russia temporarily halted its grain exports, further exacerbating the situation. This resulted in a rise in world food prices and the threat of famine in lower-income countries, and accusation that Russia weaponizing food supplies. To address the issue, discussions began in April, hosted by Turkey (which controls the maritime routes from the Black Sea) and supported by the UN. The resulting agreement was signed in Istanbul on 22 July 2022, valid for a period of 120 days. The July agreement created procedures to safely export grain from certain ports to attempt to address the 2022 food crisis. A joint coordination and inspection center was set up in Turkey, with the UN serving as secretariat.\n>\n> . . .\n>\n>The original agreement was set to expire on 19 November 2022. Russia suspended its participation in the agreement for several days due to a drone attack on Russian naval ships elsewhere in the Black Sea, but rejoined following mediation. On 17 November 2022, the UN and Ukraine announced that the agreement had been extended for a further 120 days. In March 2023, Turkey and the UN announced that they secured a second extension for at least another 60 days. In May 2023, the deal was once again extended for 60 days, expiring on 18 July.\n\nThe grain deal [expired in July](https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/07/1138752) after Russia withdrew. In early September, Türkiye (formerly Turkey) [has been in talks](https://www.npr.org/2023/09/04/1197544117/russia-ukraine-grain-deal-turkey) with Russia to revive the deal, though as of September 7, 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far held firm to demands such as only returning to the deal [when western nations lift restrictions on banking and logistics](https://www.npr.org/2023/09/04/1197544117/russia-ukraine-grain-deal-turkey)." }, { "id": 18684, "title": "Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023?", "short_title": "US ETH ETF approved in 2023?", "url_title": "US ETH ETF approved in 2023?", "slug": "us-eth-etf-approved-in-2023", "author_id": 151696, "author_username": "foresightbureau", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-07T10:11:32.717187Z", "published_at": "2023-09-08T21:44:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.759090Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-08T21:44:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:03:00Z", "open_time": "2023-09-08T21:44:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18684, "title": "Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023?", "created_at": "2023-09-07T10:11:32.717187Z", "open_time": "2023-09-08T21:44:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-10T21:44:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-10T21:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T17:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The potential for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve an exchange-traded fund (ETF) directly tracking the price of the cryptocurrency Ethereum has generated enthusiasm within the investment community. Such a product would offer conventional retail investors straightforward exposure to this emergent digital asset by trading on public stock exchanges like existing ETFs. \n\nAn SEC-approved Ethereum ETF would constitute a watershed moment for increased mainstream and institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies. By providing a regulated on-ramp for retail investors to gain price exposure to Ethereum, an ETF could rapidly multiply investment flows. The resulting supply-demand imbalance would likely apply significant appreciation pressure on ETH prices.\n\nSee <https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/09/06/cathy-woods-ark-invest-files-for-first-spot-ether-etf/>", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if a statement appears on the SEC's official website https://www.sec.gov/news/pressreleases stating that a US Ethereum spot ETF has been approved before January 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18684, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703965837.974311, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.006 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703965837.974311, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.006 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.018021122792932023 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.7532963796451235, 5.778284384816662, 0.088218564506665, 0.31286391742790765, 0.2801509562747174, 0.06427640630688772, 0.32575877337739545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05515324697100428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0541425161069094, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.927437134809377, "coverage": 0.9995256033579726, "baseline_score": 65.58913442041639, "spot_peer_score": -9.168607158168609, "peer_archived_score": 7.927437134809377, "baseline_archived_score": 65.58913442041639, "spot_peer_archived_score": -9.168607158168609 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008505.533397, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008505.533397, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The potential for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve an exchange-traded fund (ETF) directly tracking the price of the cryptocurrency Ethereum has generated enthusiasm within the investment community. Such a product would offer conventional retail investors straightforward exposure to this emergent digital asset by trading on public stock exchanges like existing ETFs. \n\nAn SEC-approved Ethereum ETF would constitute a watershed moment for increased mainstream and institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies. By providing a regulated on-ramp for retail investors to gain price exposure to Ethereum, an ETF could rapidly multiply investment flows. The resulting supply-demand imbalance would likely apply significant appreciation pressure on ETH prices.\n\nSee <https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/09/06/cathy-woods-ark-invest-files-for-first-spot-ether-etf/>" }, { "id": 18683, "title": "Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?", "short_title": "Ukrainian territory lost in 2029?", "url_title": "Ukrainian territory lost in 2029?", "slug": "ukrainian-territory-lost-in-2029", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-07T02:24:58.115478Z", "published_at": "2023-09-29T22:02:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-09T06:15:09.203719Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-29T22:02:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-02-23T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-02-24T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-29T22:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 104, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18683, "title": "Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?", "created_at": "2023-09-07T02:24:58.115478Z", "open_time": "2023-09-29T22:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-01T11:09:50.820964Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-01T11:09:50.820964Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-02-24T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-02-23T14:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-02-23T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ukraine's *de jure* territory includes all of Crimea plus the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk provinces. While the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 was illegitimate, the peninsula is not included in this question. The purpose of this question is to create a conditional pair with a proposed one about Donald Trump being US president, to measure the impact of a Trump presidency on the likelihood of a Ukrainian defeat against the aggressor.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based on a comparison of the territory controlled by Ukraine at the resolution date (2029-02-24, seven years after the Russian invasion) and its 2013 territory excluding the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol.\n\n<img src=\"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/79/Annexation_of_Southern_and_Eastern_Ukraine.svg/1920px-Annexation_of_Southern_and_Eastern_Ukraine.svg.png\" alt=\"Annexation of Southern and Eastern Ukraine\" />\n\nIt resolves as **Yes** if there is any part of the 2013 territory (represented in yellow and pink), excluding Crimea and Sevastopol (represented in striped area), that Ukraine does not de facto control in 2029.", "fine_print": "Non-Ukrainian controlled territory, to resolve this question negatively, must be inhabited by humans; nuclear wastelands, for example, do not count.", "post_id": 18683, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762899584.929679, "end_time": 1763551791.638448, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762899584.929679, "end_time": 1763551791.638448, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9569024559901562 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010717274662964819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020715058604276908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003138745684197452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8677582728284049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252827702246184, 0.0960250916311845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6143511457189443, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1224365613346212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11996198847016737, 0.23632165058305657, 0.863774246842245, 0.0, 1.0486466925198052, 0.07052233569301845, 9.228728845292917 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287983.760411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287983.760411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.048338396717840015, 0.95166160328216 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 235, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ukraine's *de jure* territory includes all of Crimea plus the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk provinces. While the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 was illegitimate, the peninsula is not included in this question. The purpose of this question is to create a conditional pair with a proposed one about Donald Trump being US president, to measure the impact of a Trump presidency on the likelihood of a Ukrainian defeat against the aggressor." }, { "id": 18681, "title": "Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?", "short_title": "India Bill to Change Name Before Sept. 23?", "url_title": "India Bill to Change Name Before Sept. 23?", "slug": "india-bill-to-change-name-before-sept-23", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-06T22:53:51.021758Z", "published_at": "2023-09-07T16:45:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.458589Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-07T16:45:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-22T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-22T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-23T12:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-23T12:48:00Z", "open_time": "2023-09-07T16:45:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 140, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18681, "title": "Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-09-06T22:53:51.021758Z", "open_time": "2023-09-07T16:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-12T16:45:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-12T16:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-23T12:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-23T12:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-09-23T12:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-22T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-22T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In early September, India issued invitations to a state dinner at the G20 summit, which it is hosting, that [referred to](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/05/bharat-g20-invitation-fuels-rumours-india-may-change-name) the President of India, [Droupadi Murmu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Droupadi_Murmu), as \"president of Bharat\". This sparked rumors that India may change its official name.\n\nAccording to [the Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/05/bharat-g20-invitation-fuels-rumours-india-may-change-name):\n\n>[Indian Prime Minister [Narendra Modi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narendra_Modi)] himself typically refers to India as Bharat, a word dating back to ancient Hindu scriptures written in Sanskrit, and one of two official names for the country under its constitution.\n>\n>Members of his Hindu nationalist ruling party, Bharatiya Janata party (BJP), have previously campaigned against using the name India, which has its roots in western antiquity and was imposed during the British conquest.\n>\n>The government has called a special session of parliament for later in the month, but remains tight-lipped about its legislative agenda, but the broadcaster News18 said unnamed government sources had told it that BJP lawmakers would put forward a special resolution to give precedence to the name Bharat.\n\nThe special session of Parliament is scheduled to run from [September 18 to September 22](https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/special-parliament-session-to-commence-on-september-18-to-move-to-new-building-2431746-2023-09-06).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after September 7, 2023 and before September 23, 2023, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that a bill has been introduced in the Parliament of India that would change the name of the country to Bharat. If India remains an official name in the proposed bill (including if the proposed bill would leave the wording referring to the official names in India's constitution unchanged) but the bill would make Bharat the more prominent official name to be used in most aspects of governance this would resolve as **Yes**. If such a bill would make the name India no longer an official name, leaving the name Bharat as the only official name, this question will also resolve as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18681, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1695419106.425434, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 140, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1695419106.425434, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 140, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01605969139877163 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.13910165925938, 10.544001010668556, 1.5232448049906426, 0.302015747249849, 0.0, 0.04914833704918838, 0.05473669400214539, 0.5696917844296773, 0.00917997187888808, 0.01680308339856936, 0.5534718310748761, 0.012921731240634329, 0.004741418778085277, 0.0, 0.006834837283284354, 0.15161948166727404, 0.0, 0.0014435398625015404, 0.0008793495751820619, 0.0, 0.1196938621842584, 0.004893050399180639, 0.00754013013196906, 0.008556262959252658, 0.0, 0.013878507440305518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029210375577416445, 0.0, 0.00788983252767073, 0.0022708594208157877, 0.0, 0.0066425917921653635, 0.0, 0.000903625317110934, 0.00030643583271717844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037772523796174027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.989121289631428e-05, 8.417018276060128e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017167937732653064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026957474042702497, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010242207881886398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005680730021109231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007104699743244969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005952430629394176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.3696670179678695e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012082935885759032 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.82074829233025, "coverage": 0.9998816034420157, "baseline_score": 49.83093802220816, "spot_peer_score": 12.323342282408317, "peer_archived_score": 10.82074829233025, "baseline_archived_score": 49.83093802220816, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.323342282408317 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1695419106.466984, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 140, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1695419106.466984, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 140, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9991097228806334, 0.0008902771193666475 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 677, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In early September, India issued invitations to a state dinner at the G20 summit, which it is hosting, that [referred to](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/05/bharat-g20-invitation-fuels-rumours-india-may-change-name) the President of India, [Droupadi Murmu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Droupadi_Murmu), as \"president of Bharat\". This sparked rumors that India may change its official name.\n\nAccording to [the Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/05/bharat-g20-invitation-fuels-rumours-india-may-change-name):\n\n>[Indian Prime Minister [Narendra Modi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narendra_Modi)] himself typically refers to India as Bharat, a word dating back to ancient Hindu scriptures written in Sanskrit, and one of two official names for the country under its constitution.\n>\n>Members of his Hindu nationalist ruling party, Bharatiya Janata party (BJP), have previously campaigned against using the name India, which has its roots in western antiquity and was imposed during the British conquest.\n>\n>The government has called a special session of parliament for later in the month, but remains tight-lipped about its legislative agenda, but the broadcaster News18 said unnamed government sources had told it that BJP lawmakers would put forward a special resolution to give precedence to the name Bharat.\n\nThe special session of Parliament is scheduled to run from [September 18 to September 22](https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/special-parliament-session-to-commence-on-september-18-to-move-to-new-building-2431746-2023-09-06)." }, { "id": 18680, "title": "Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?", "short_title": "UAW Strike Before September 19, 2023?", "url_title": "UAW Strike Before September 19, 2023?", "slug": "uaw-strike-before-september-19-2023", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-06T21:47:59.680117Z", "published_at": "2023-09-07T16:45:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.982273Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-07T16:45:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-14T22:00:00Z", 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"2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18680, "title": "Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-09-06T21:47:59.680117Z", "open_time": "2023-09-07T16:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-09T16:45:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-09T16:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-15T09:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-15T09:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-09-15T09:56:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-14T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-14T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [United Auto Workers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Auto_Workers) (UAW) union represents [more than 400,000](https://uaw.org/about/) active members primarily [from](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Auto_Workers) \"autos and auto parts, health care, casino gambling, and higher education.\"\n\nOn August 25, 2023, following negotiations with the [Big Three US automobile manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Three_(automobile_manufacturers)), General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis (formerly Chrysler; all three are headquartered in Detroit) the [UAW announced](https://uaw.org/97-uaws-big-three-members-vote-yes-authorize-strike/) that\n\n>the union’s strike authorization vote passed with near universal approval from the 150,000 union workers at Ford, General Motors and Stellantis. . . The vote does not guarantee a strike will be called, only that the union has the right to call a strike if the Big Three refuse to reach a fair deal.\n\nThe existing UAW contracts with the Big Three [expire at 11:59 PM on September 14](https://michiganadvance.com/2023/09/04/column-autoworkers-may-wage-a-historic-strike-against-the-detroit-3/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before September 19, 2023, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the United Auto Workers (UAW) union has announced that they have called a strike against one or more of the Big Three Detroit automakers: General Motors, Ford, or Stellantis.", "fine_print": "* An announcement of a called strike is sufficient to resolve as **Yes**, even if the strike is later cancelled or delayed before taking place.\n* A strike must be called by UAW to be sufficient, members of UAW conducting limited strikes that have not been called by UAW do not qualify.\n* A strike authorization does not qualify, the strike must actually be called.", "post_id": 18680, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1694728669.558695, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1694728669.558695, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.83383321078257 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01597739522374575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032603629444498622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02492106137671398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0361372874092818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027719772151930493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030108441354212506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015984758867006253, 0.002334944183173679, 0.0, 0.0604806447258907, 0.0, 0.03950452060911081, 0.017160747816388777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031125788994992847, 0.37239814910513097, 0.1552013165225616, 0.027414264600835975, 0.006636231172708202, 0.0, 0.9258791204282778, 0.22946702763934312, 0.0, 0.035511219304933284, 0.5590197058964325, 0.8622574377340255, 0.43782470350779906, 0.4501097222339915, 0.0770239322499232, 0.0, 2.8661895039889798, 0.0, 0.36269734845126494, 0.34029419999880384, 0.10875208049363944, 2.576722890065316, 1.1946163410315398, 0.0, 0.17433684005092911, 0.0, 0.41833191911977463, 0.09722222970319579, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0593003795874425, 0.7200384947314461, 0.013492534825694926, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9451292853160638 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.204663684493056, "coverage": 0.9993889742503854, "baseline_score": 30.478848826195094, "spot_peer_score": 7.463315226674004, "peer_archived_score": 14.204663684493056, "baseline_archived_score": 30.478848826195094, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.463315226674004 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1694728669.613001, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1694728669.613001, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.14140462125359066, 0.8585953787464093 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 289, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [United Auto Workers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Auto_Workers) (UAW) union represents [more than 400,000](https://uaw.org/about/) active members primarily [from](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Auto_Workers) \"autos and auto parts, health care, casino gambling, and higher education.\"\n\nOn August 25, 2023, following negotiations with the [Big Three US automobile manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Three_(automobile_manufacturers)), General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis (formerly Chrysler; all three are headquartered in Detroit) the [UAW announced](https://uaw.org/97-uaws-big-three-members-vote-yes-authorize-strike/) that\n\n>the union’s strike authorization vote passed with near universal approval from the 150,000 union workers at Ford, General Motors and Stellantis. . . The vote does not guarantee a strike will be called, only that the union has the right to call a strike if the Big Three refuse to reach a fair deal.\n\nThe existing UAW contracts with the Big Three [expire at 11:59 PM on September 14](https://michiganadvance.com/2023/09/04/column-autoworkers-may-wage-a-historic-strike-against-the-detroit-3/)." }, { "id": 18677, "title": "Will any member country leave BRICS before 2035?", "short_title": "Member Country Leaves BRICS by 2035?", "url_title": "Member Country Leaves BRICS by 2035?", "slug": "member-country-leaves-brics-by-2035", "author_id": 132719, "author_username": "MetaCalculator", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-05T05:25:16.111510Z", "published_at": "2023-09-07T22:47:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T09:40:44.179697Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-07T22:47:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-07T22:47:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 58, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18677, "title": "Will any member country leave BRICS before 2035?", "created_at": "2023-09-05T05:25:16.111510Z", "open_time": "2023-09-07T22:47:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-09T22:47:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-09T22:47:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[BRICS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS) is a group of countries that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, acting as a competitor and political counterweight to the [G7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G7) group of countries . In 2024, Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will join the bloc. There are [concerns](https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/28/china/china-brics-expansion-victory-intl-hnk/index.html) that expanding BRICS will benefit China, while hurting more countries like India and Brazil, which share more developing economies compared to G7, but which have higher political or trade ties to Western countries comprising the G7. \n\nIn the case that political tensions grow between China (or China-leaning) and Western-leaning BRICS members, it is plausible that one or more BRICS countries will elect to leave the bloc.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2035, a member country of BRICS will cease being a member. Otherwise, the question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* Mere announcement of intention to leave, or initiating a withdrawal process, will not resolve this question unless the withdrawal is completed by the closing date.\n* A change in BRICSs name, or legal status, will not resolve this question, as long as BRICS or any succeeding entity is internationally recognized as its formal successor.\n* Should a country joins BRICS following the opening of this question, and then cease being a member before the closing date, the question will resolve positively.\n* Should BRICS formally cease to exist without an internationally recognized \nsuccessor before the closing date, the question will resolve positively.", "post_id": 18677, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762772759.914145, "end_time": 1764032890.154213, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762772759.914145, "end_time": 1764032890.154213, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.6033089761311011 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7445660976288506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26084306988457173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09845033645686022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16054456415221713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016576386347562713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2881606216346553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.360313148176156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019678999436820003, 0.0, 0.7172155047123877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42086602357178937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33932512396605824, 0.48200218094440594, 0.28045304072399985, 0.0, 0.429368094000161, 0.39193370312732034, 0.0, 0.1769212063177643, 0.0, 0.0, 3.6103496940624433, 0.0, 0.5468132678220224, 0.009167091186681414, 0.0, 0.7074309946595276, 0.3952632697996375, 0.5915086375725582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013808762573796008, 0.0, 0.0072394993156304705, 0.2948419370101297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288983.890817, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288983.890817, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.34954200280049874, 0.6504579971995013 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[BRICS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS) is a group of countries that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, acting as a competitor and political counterweight to the [G7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G7) group of countries . In 2024, Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will join the bloc. There are [concerns](https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/28/china/china-brics-expansion-victory-intl-hnk/index.html) that expanding BRICS will benefit China, while hurting more countries like India and Brazil, which share more developing economies compared to G7, but which have higher political or trade ties to Western countries comprising the G7. \n\nIn the case that political tensions grow between China (or China-leaning) and Western-leaning BRICS members, it is plausible that one or more BRICS countries will elect to leave the bloc." }, { "id": 18673, "title": "Will a fourth manufacturer enter the NASCAR Cup Series before 2030?", "short_title": "New NASCAR manufacturer before 2030", "url_title": "New NASCAR manufacturer before 2030", "slug": "new-nascar-manufacturer-before-2030", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-03T19:41:33.499109Z", "published_at": "2023-10-05T22:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-08T01:08:37.171421Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-05T22:40:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-10-05T22:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18673, "title": "Will a fourth manufacturer enter the NASCAR Cup Series before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-09-03T19:41:33.499109Z", "open_time": "2023-10-05T22:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-07T22:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-07T22:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ever since [Dodge left the NASCAR Cup Series after the 2012 season](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a18744961/why-dodge-pulled-the-plug-on-its-nascar-program/), only three manufacturers have remained in the series: Ford, Chevrolet and Toyota. [Speculation has abounded](https://www.jayski.com/2020/10/01/honda-not-currently-interested-in-coming-to-nascar/) [for many years](https://www.autoweek.com/racing/a30351017/next-gen-what-we-know-about-nascars-new-car/) that a new manufacturer will join the series, [or that Dodge will return](https://twitter.com/A_S12/status/1579650835084369921?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1579650835084369921%7Ctwgr%5E7833c022a2de9318836a1b21aca8b43ff232c7de%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sportscasting.com%2Fdodge-reportedly-has-cooled-on-nascar-return-but-does-it-matter%2F).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if there is an official announcement from NASCAR that a fourth manufacturer will race in the NASCAR Cup series before the 2030 season.", "fine_print": "If NASCAR ceases to exist before the resolution date, or if one of the current manufacturers leaves the sport but the sport continues, this question will resolve as Ambiguous.", "post_id": 18673, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758363016.525066, "end_time": 1768300726.474381, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758363016.525066, "end_time": 1768300726.474381, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31000000000000005, 0.69 ], "means": [ 0.7195363346536853 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7649466451949238, 1.0, 0.556667905035692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289096.318097, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289096.318097, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3514622815821783, 0.6485377184178217 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 24, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ever since [Dodge left the NASCAR Cup Series after the 2012 season](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a18744961/why-dodge-pulled-the-plug-on-its-nascar-program/), only three manufacturers have remained in the series: Ford, Chevrolet and Toyota. [Speculation has abounded](https://www.jayski.com/2020/10/01/honda-not-currently-interested-in-coming-to-nascar/) [for many years](https://www.autoweek.com/racing/a30351017/next-gen-what-we-know-about-nascars-new-car/) that a new manufacturer will join the series, [or that Dodge will return](https://twitter.com/A_S12/status/1579650835084369921?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1579650835084369921%7Ctwgr%5E7833c022a2de9318836a1b21aca8b43ff232c7de%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sportscasting.com%2Fdodge-reportedly-has-cooled-on-nascar-return-but-does-it-matter%2F)." }, { "id": 18665, "title": "Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?", "short_title": "Large-Scale Riot in the US 2023/24", "url_title": "Large-Scale Riot in the US 2023/24", "slug": "large-scale-riot-in-the-us-202324", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [ { "id": 101465, "username": "Jgalt" } ], "created_at": "2023-09-01T16:29:23.279733Z", "published_at": "2023-09-15T16:43:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.688725Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-15T16:43:00Z", "comment_count": 29, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:33:00Z", "open_time": "2023-09-15T16:43:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 71, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18665, "title": "Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?", "created_at": "2023-09-01T16:29:23.279733Z", "open_time": "2023-09-15T16:43:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-17T16:43:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-17T16:43:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T04:39:31.282661Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Incidents of civil unrest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unrest_in_the_United_States) are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the [1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots), during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested. \n\nA more recent, albeit less severe, example of a riot (or civil unrest) is the [January 6 United States Capitol attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_6_United_States_Capitol_attack) which cuminated in a coordinated attack on the US Capitol building by far-right, pro-Trump militias resulting in 5 deaths and injuries exceeding 100 persons.\n\nThis question asks: **Will the United States experience an incident of a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?**", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, 'large-scale riot' is defined as an event of rioting (large-scale disturbance of the peace by a violent crowd) or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions is met:\n\n>1. At least 50 people die due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.\n\n>2. At least 10,000 people are arrested by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.\n\n>3. Property damages are credibly estimated at $1 billion or more. This estimate may come from either the local government of the locality in which the incident takes place, the state government, the federal government, or a major US news publication such as the New York Times, Washington Post, or major broadcast news networks.\n\nSuch events should take place in a 100km radius, and within 14 days. As an example, the [1992 LA riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots) would count, but rioting that is spread across all of California or that occurs in separate phases over a long time period would not count if no single incident met any of the above criteria.\n\nResolution should cite a government statement or credible news reports that indicate that any of the above conditions have been met by an event of rioting.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, the \"United States\" means the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and the 326 American Indian reservations. Civil unrest or rioting in [territories of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territories_of_the_United_States) does not count.", "post_id": 18665, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735688530.943068, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735688530.943068, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.026212539063551348 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.556001930175215, 0.737221353847175, 0.5118812542199547, 0.22634300941461377, 0.4104811068714913, 1.0585498655316603, 0.18806262139399427, 0.026884426431469374, 0.2519762019484688, 0.03663966570762298, 0.08182448127084861, 0.049039889491686216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1490460999152466, 0.1870355697991937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011871193631835357, 0.0, 0.14203875867601504, 0.17391556805192088, 0.010410228191898815, 0.0771455627522319, 0.0, 0.010748007903324508, 0.0, 0.015244778358237942, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01929855764319108, 0.0, 0.0134789797452288, 0.0, 0.01371942188270198, 0.0041768548738893045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09157984357551607, 0.009085526851517875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010154633171455994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05385505242225807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 76.79007165145116, "peer_score": 15.862285561187274, "coverage": 0.999825268712422, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999825268712422, "spot_peer_score": 48.46139141106905, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 76.79007165145116, "peer_archived_score": 15.862285561187274, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 48.46139141106905, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289294.619236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289294.619236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9748593629229545, 0.025140637077045506 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 179, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Incidents of civil unrest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unrest_in_the_United_States) are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the [1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots), during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested. \n\nA more recent, albeit less severe, example of a riot (or civil unrest) is the [January 6 United States Capitol attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_6_United_States_Capitol_attack) which cuminated in a coordinated attack on the US Capitol building by far-right, pro-Trump militias resulting in 5 deaths and injuries exceeding 100 persons.\n\nThis question asks: **Will the United States experience an incident of a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?**" }, { "id": 18664, "title": "Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2031?", "short_title": "US unemployment rate 10% before 2031?", "url_title": "US unemployment rate 10% before 2031?", "slug": "us-unemployment-rate-10-before-2031", "author_id": 129147, "author_username": "txmerritt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-01T14:29:28.025248Z", "published_at": "2023-09-26T22:05:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-20T00:55:16.417547Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-26T22:05:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-26T22:05:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18664, "title": "Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-09-01T14:29:28.025248Z", "open_time": "2023-09-26T22:05:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-28T22:05:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-28T22:05:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Metaculus community has projected the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 (Unemployed and looking for work) unemployment rate for the US at around 3% through 2027. \n\n-\t[What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following year?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14064/us-annual-average-u-3-unemployment-rate/) by RyanBeck\n\nPresumably, if some new data emerged indicating a shock to the labor markets, the Metaculus community would reassess their forecasts and possibly increase the percentage. \n\nWhat percentage point might be considered a shock to the labor market? In December, 2018, before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Jgalt asked if the US unemployment rate would reach 10%. This question resolved “Yes” at 14.7% in April 2020.\n\n-\t[Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/) by Jgalt\n\nUsing Jgalt’s criteria, a US unemployment rate of 10% or higher could be viewed as evidence of a shock to the labor markets.\n\nThis question asks if the US will reach 10% unemployment (seasonally adjusted) at any point before January 1st 2031.", "resolution_criteria": "For a positive resolution, data confirming 10% or greater unemployment must be sourced from the [United States Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/), or if that body no longer exists, credible media reports in the financial press.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18664, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761332693.086107, "end_time": 1763714543.610683, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761332693.086107, "end_time": 1763714543.610683, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.49261954569551925 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289565.358358, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289565.358358, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8154310673244672, 0.1845689326755328 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 128, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Metaculus community has projected the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 (Unemployed and looking for work) unemployment rate for the US at around 3% through 2027. \n\n-\t[What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following year?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14064/us-annual-average-u-3-unemployment-rate/) by RyanBeck\n\nPresumably, if some new data emerged indicating a shock to the labor markets, the Metaculus community would reassess their forecasts and possibly increase the percentage. \n\nWhat percentage point might be considered a shock to the labor market? In December, 2018, before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Jgalt asked if the US unemployment rate would reach 10%. This question resolved “Yes” at 14.7% in April 2020.\n\n-\t[Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/) by Jgalt\n\nUsing Jgalt’s criteria, a US unemployment rate of 10% or higher could be viewed as evidence of a shock to the labor markets.\n\nThis question asks if the US will reach 10% unemployment (seasonally adjusted) at any point before January 1st 2031." }, { "id": 18663, "title": "Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?", "short_title": "Civil Unrest or Rioting in US Before 2031?", "url_title": "Civil Unrest or Rioting in US Before 2031?", "slug": "civil-unrest-or-rioting-in-us-before-2031", "author_id": 129147, "author_username": "txmerritt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-01T13:47:41.234070Z", "published_at": "2023-09-28T23:33:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T19:36:26.539433Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-28T23:33:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-28T23:33:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18663, "title": "Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-09-01T13:47:41.234070Z", "open_time": "2023-09-28T23:33:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-30T22:21:25.426000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-30T22:21:25.426000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Incidents of civil unrest are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the 1992 Los Angeles riots, during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested. Property damage was estimated at more than $1bn.\n\nThere have been four previous questions of this type on Metaculus. Each of them resolved as “No.”\n\n-\t[Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3900/will-the-us-see-a-massive-riot-in-2020/) by Jgalt\n-\t[Will there be a major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2021?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6244/large-scale-rioting-in-us-in-early-2021/) by Jgalt\n-\t[Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15573/huge-riots-in-the-us-before-april-15th-2023/) by Matthew_Barnett\n-\t[Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4536/will-the-us-see-widespread-rioting-in-2020/) by juancambeiro", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2031, there is major civil unrest or rioting in the United States. Several resolution criteria for these types of questions have been put forward. I prefer the latest offered by Jgalt: \n\nFor the purposes of this question, 'major civil unrest or rioting' is defined as an event of rioting or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions is met:\n\n- At least 50 people die directly due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.\n\n-\tAt least 10,000 people are arrested by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.\n\nThese counts will be cumulative for any given 30-day period. Deaths and arrests need not be from a single instance of unrest and instead can be from many.\n\nFor deaths to count toward the overall death toll, the deaths must occur within the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest; deaths from a generic mass shooting or a series of homicides that occur outside of the context of a riot shouldn't count towards the 50. \n\nFurther, deaths that occur due to medical emergencies that aren't related to rioting or unrest do not count (for example, someone dying of a heart attack while in a crowd of rioters). \n\nSuicides also do not count.\n\nArrests must also be made in the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, the \"United States\" means the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and the 326 American Indian reservations. Civil unrest or rioting in [territories of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territories_of_the_United_States) does not count.", "post_id": 18663, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763446183.563933, "end_time": 1763799691.11878, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763446183.563933, "end_time": 1763799691.11878, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6762294697251798 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.12213964696863193, 0.16826274979803604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022933126248756933, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011387655420591815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007683132160872665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3288696518811411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6444319296650869, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2118020448654148, 0.019395540998817004, 0.0, 0.008904031237728248, 0.0, 0.07297864542578526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005597961463592589, 0.0, 0.37747527053912144, 0.0, 0.003928092025013086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24585267888888213, 0.0, 0.10306644928820237, 0.30563833986898786, 0.3281498352869308, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10178807691939804, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0047153805902174, 0.8494504070088004, 0.18184291418632875, 0.0, 0.14475096780126365, 0.0, 0.3520703225627485, 0.31171167159274227, 0.433058029116845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3630442168097099, 0.4044436408528118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7445757007622463, 0.0, 0.940527522258481, 0.0, 0.8308111453462594, 1.6409723712560718, 0.5657631982301625, 0.0020593749349257107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8841796406594272, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7802828173439227, 1.0622045748120574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14365297647072853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14574133766450162 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288906.670535, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288906.670535, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5652475128088743, 0.43475248719112564 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 189, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Incidents of civil unrest are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the 1992 Los Angeles riots, during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested. Property damage was estimated at more than $1bn.\n\nThere have been four previous questions of this type on Metaculus. Each of them resolved as “No.”\n\n-\t[Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3900/will-the-us-see-a-massive-riot-in-2020/) by Jgalt\n-\t[Will there be a major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2021?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6244/large-scale-rioting-in-us-in-early-2021/) by Jgalt\n-\t[Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15573/huge-riots-in-the-us-before-april-15th-2023/) by Matthew_Barnett\n-\t[Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4536/will-the-us-see-widespread-rioting-in-2020/) by juancambeiro" }, { "id": 18612, "title": "Will the US deploy military forces in Mexico without the cooperation of the Mexican government before 2029?", "short_title": "US military intervention in Mexico by 2029", "url_title": "US military intervention in Mexico by 2029", "slug": "us-military-intervention-in-mexico-by-2029", "author_id": 149007, "author_username": "aoeiur", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-30T16:24:22.969146Z", "published_at": "2023-09-07T22:31:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T23:46:39.118911Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-07T22:31:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-07T22:31:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18612, "title": "Will the US deploy military forces in Mexico without the cooperation of the Mexican government before 2029?", "created_at": "2023-08-30T16:24:22.969146Z", "open_time": "2023-09-07T22:31:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-09T02:55:12.275451Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-09T02:55:12.275451Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "During the Republican presidential primary debate on August 23 2023, several candidates expressed willingness to deploy US military forces in Mexico to combat drug cartels [1]. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has spoken against such intervention [2].\n\n## Sources\n\n1. [GOP talk of military action in Mexico sparks dire warnings](https://thehill.com/latino/4170236-gop-talk-of-military-action-in-mexico-sparks-dire-warnings/)\n2. [GOP embraces a new foreign policy: Bomb Mexico to stop fentanyl](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/10/gop-bomb-mexico-fentanyl-00091132)", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve YES if reputable sources report ALL of the following before January 1 2029:\n\n- US military forces conduct military action in Mexico.\n\n- Leaders in the Mexican government, to include the President or Secretary of Foreign Affairs, condemn this action or otherwise indicate that the Mexican government did not cooperate.\n\nThe question will otherwise resolve NO.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18612, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763185251.217228, "end_time": 1766916685.178037, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763185251.217228, "end_time": 1766916685.178037, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.27247565706467863 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.1176515350356177, 0.0, 0.05781396708726085, 0.0, 0.4224808521166191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49184465768954627, 0.0, 1.7330583164750224, 0.0, 1.0815445946780726, 0.11847113291540433, 0.0, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.414435702289577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3764295304079803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6316182707232363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289238.66089, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289238.66089, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9923153541737351, 0.007684645826264891 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "During the Republican presidential primary debate on August 23 2023, several candidates expressed willingness to deploy US military forces in Mexico to combat drug cartels [1]. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has spoken against such intervention [2].\n\n## Sources\n\n1. [GOP talk of military action in Mexico sparks dire warnings](https://thehill.com/latino/4170236-gop-talk-of-military-action-in-mexico-sparks-dire-warnings/)\n2. [GOP embraces a new foreign policy: Bomb Mexico to stop fentanyl](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/10/gop-bomb-mexico-fentanyl-00091132)" }, { "id": 18611, "title": "Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?", "short_title": "LLM MT SOTA", "url_title": "LLM MT SOTA", "slug": "llm-mt-sota", "author_id": 153277, "author_username": "evenius", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-30T14:54:01.449201Z", "published_at": "2023-09-07T22:38:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.593699Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-07T22:38:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-30T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-30T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-06T15:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-06T15:57:00Z", "open_time": "2023-09-07T22:38:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18611, "title": "Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?", "created_at": "2023-08-30T14:54:01.449201Z", "open_time": "2023-09-07T22:38:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-09T22:38:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-09T22:38:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-06T15:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-06T15:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-06T15:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-30T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Large language models have established a new state of the art in several areas of natural language processing. It is possible that they will also be widely accepted as the state of the art for machine translation (MT) within the year.\n\nEvery year, the MT community compares the quality of research systems at the Conference on Machine Translation. The findings of the shared task on general-purpose MT are taken as an indicator of the current state of the art in MT.\n\nPrevious technological paradigm shifts have been reflected in the results of the shared task. For example, the [2016 shared task](https://aclanthology.org/W16-2301/) found that for the first time, end-to-end neural networks have become state of the art in MT.\n\nSystem submissions for [this year's iteration of the General Machine Translation shared task](http://www2.statmt.org/wmt23/translation-task.html) were submitted in July 2023 and the results of the human evaluation will be presented on December 6–7, 2023. It is conceivable that the majority of language pairs will be won by submissions based on a large language model, which would once again represent a technological paradigm shift for MT.\n\nList of language pairs that will be evaluated:\n* Chinese to/from English\n* German to/from English\n* Hebrew to/from English\n* Japanese to/from English\n* Russian to/from English\n* Ukrainian to/from English\n* Czech to Ukrainian\n* English to Czech", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the official results of the [WMT23 General Machine Translation Task](http://www2.statmt.org/wmt23/translation-task.html) show that for the majority of evaluated language pairs, the top cluster of systems contains a system that is directly based on a large language model.", "fine_print": "- In the context of this question, a **large language model** (LLM) is defined as a decoder-only causal language model with at least 7 billion parameters that has been pre-trained primarily on natural language text.\n- A system submission is **directly based on an LLM** if it is publicly known that the submitted translations have been generated by an LLM. Approaches such as distillation from an LLM or re-ranking by an LLM are therefore not considered to be directly based on an LLM.\n- The **official results** will be published in a paper entitled \"Findings of the 2023 Conference on Machine Translation (WMT23)\" or similar, which are expected to appear in the Proceedings of the Eighth Conference on Machine Translation (WMT) in the first half of 2024. In the previous years, the official results have been presented in one or more tables with the caption \"Official results ...\".\n- The **top cluster of systems** is identified by grouping systems together that significantly outperform all the other systems in lower ranking clusters, according to a Wilcoxon rank-sum test. In the previous years, the top cluster of systems was denoted with \"Rank 1\" in the table of official results.\n- This question considers the \"unconstrained track\", i.e., the resources that systems can use are not constrained.\n- The **majority of evaluated language pairs** is at least half of the language pairs in the official results. The \"to\" and \"from\" directions are treated as two separate language pairs. As of August 30, 2023, the organizers plan to evaluate 14 language pairs, so the majority would be at least 7. If fewer or more pairs will be evaluated, the majority will change accordingly.\n- If the official results of the shared task have not been published by the resolve date or if they do not contain significance tests, the question resolves as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 18611, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701299200.470481, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701299200.470481, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.020000000000000018, 0.98 ], "means": [ 0.9192438238392678 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07538866801196019, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020655434800179992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16378110850070704, 0.05148079025128712, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02044385629703803, 0.0050216818569385835, 0.04492986066620649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2425126729529749, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11340209271158275, 0.13294920078905473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028841894683954285, 0.11995699393505997, 0.0033186276747047033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2716940322014041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49321281432304026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1983976973260795, 0.20005070513194295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11935795955623035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5350252150826518, 0.34946576266536805, 0.22045724352962418, 0.0, 1.1738988276226214, 1.5078753110443304, 5.832021887771315 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.661698257128498, "coverage": 0.9994312897177114, "baseline_score": 24.00728447010038, "spot_peer_score": 35.55322035322766, "peer_archived_score": 11.661698257128498, "baseline_archived_score": 24.00728447010038, "spot_peer_archived_score": 35.55322035322766 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701330440.34743, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701330440.34743, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.05186657125050398, 0.948133428749496 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Large language models have established a new state of the art in several areas of natural language processing. It is possible that they will also be widely accepted as the state of the art for machine translation (MT) within the year.\n\nEvery year, the MT community compares the quality of research systems at the Conference on Machine Translation. The findings of the shared task on general-purpose MT are taken as an indicator of the current state of the art in MT.\n\nPrevious technological paradigm shifts have been reflected in the results of the shared task. For example, the [2016 shared task](https://aclanthology.org/W16-2301/) found that for the first time, end-to-end neural networks have become state of the art in MT.\n\nSystem submissions for [this year's iteration of the General Machine Translation shared task](http://www2.statmt.org/wmt23/translation-task.html) were submitted in July 2023 and the results of the human evaluation will be presented on December 6–7, 2023. It is conceivable that the majority of language pairs will be won by submissions based on a large language model, which would once again represent a technological paradigm shift for MT.\n\nList of language pairs that will be evaluated:\n* Chinese to/from English\n* German to/from English\n* Hebrew to/from English\n* Japanese to/from English\n* Russian to/from English\n* Ukrainian to/from English\n* Czech to Ukrainian\n* English to Czech" }, { "id": 18610, "title": "Will there be a successful coup in Cameroon before 2026?", "short_title": "Cameroon Coup Before 2026?", "url_title": "Cameroon Coup Before 2026?", "slug": "cameroon-coup-before-2026", "author_id": 119712, "author_username": "rduubs", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-30T14:51:07.551857Z", "published_at": "2023-09-08T19:22:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T20:00:55.756327Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-08T19:22:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-08T19:22:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18610, "title": "Will there be a successful coup in Cameroon before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-08-30T14:51:07.551857Z", "open_time": "2023-09-08T19:22:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-10T19:22:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-10T19:22:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Paul Biya](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Biya) has served as the President of Cameroon since 1982, making him one of the longest serving presidents in Africa. \n\nThere have been a string of coups throughout the continent in the last year including other [former French colonies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_French_possessions_and_colonies#In_Africa) Niger and Burkina Faso.\n\nCameroon is [scheduled](https://www.eisa.org/election-calendar/) to have [presidential elections in 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cameroonian_presidential_election).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that an armed group has seized control of the government of Cameroon for a period of 7 days or more after September 8, 2023 and before January 1, 2026. The coup need not be brought by violence or assassination of heads of state, but must not occur due to normal democratic processes such as a free democratic election or voluntary resignation by heads of state.", "fine_print": "The 7 day period must start and end within the specified dates.", "post_id": 18610, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763109757.589761, "end_time": 1763703333.326, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763109757.589761, "end_time": 1763703333.326, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.250230306790945 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5889878087951695, 0.2569435305951722, 0.0, 0.14816789822404922, 0.8902452820461484, 0.5668683311997088, 0.0, 0.28873952796669144, 0.0, 0.7899439243127377, 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null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 132, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Paul Biya](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Biya) has served as the President of Cameroon since 1982, making him one of the longest serving presidents in Africa. \n\nThere have been a string of coups throughout the continent in the last year including other [former French colonies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_French_possessions_and_colonies#In_Africa) Niger and Burkina Faso.\n\nCameroon is [scheduled](https://www.eisa.org/election-calendar/) to have [presidential elections in 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cameroonian_presidential_election)." }, { "id": 18609, "title": "Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023?", "short_title": "French Military Intervention in Gabon 2023?", "url_title": "French Military Intervention in Gabon 2023?", "slug": "french-military-intervention-in-gabon-2023", "author_id": 119712, "author_username": "rduubs", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-30T10:03:59.247641Z", "published_at": "2023-09-08T19:22:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.393801Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-08T19:22:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-09-08T19:22:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, 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"inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Gabonese military has announced a [coup](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/8/30/gabon-crisis-live-news-soldiers-seize-power-cancel-election-result) in the wake of Ali Bongo's election victory this month. \n\nAli Bongo has been placed under house arrest following military leaders appearing on TV channel Gabon 24 saying, “We have decided to defend peace by putting an end to the current regime.”\n\nThe coup in the former French colony has followed a string of other coups in Africa this year.\n\nFrance has adjusted its foreign policy towards former colonies in the past years, taking a less active role.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, the French government announces that it is taking military action in Gabon to intervene against the coup and [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that French soldiers are undertaking such a military operation within the borders of Gabon. This includes military aid or support to other organizations like ECOWAS acting against the coup.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18609, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703891434.409553, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703891434.409553, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.018166415228409713 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.3114515323257105, 1.9347787820269318, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.14114485879589025, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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}, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Gabonese military has announced a [coup](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/8/30/gabon-crisis-live-news-soldiers-seize-power-cancel-election-result) in the wake of Ali Bongo's election victory this month. \n\nAli Bongo has been placed under house arrest following military leaders appearing on TV channel Gabon 24 saying, “We have decided to defend peace by putting an end to the current regime.”\n\nThe coup in the former French colony has followed a string of other coups in Africa this year.\n\nFrance has adjusted its foreign policy towards former colonies in the past years, taking a less active role." }, { "id": 18607, "title": "Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?", "short_title": "Chevron Bargaining Agreement by September 25?", "url_title": "Chevron Bargaining Agreement by September 25?", "slug": "chevron-bargaining-agreement-by-september-25", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-29T22:00:31.412167Z", "published_at": "2023-08-31T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.531261Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-31T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-21T23:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-24T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-24T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-21T23:20:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-31T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 68, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": 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Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18607, "title": "Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-08-29T22:00:31.412167Z", "open_time": "2023-08-31T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-05T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-05T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-24T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-21T23:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-09-21T23:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-24T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-21T23:20:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 28, 2023, [Offshore Alliance](https://offshorealliance.org.au/) — an Australian workers union — [announced](https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid02DaBqp3BcYqVEijr9oDG42VipbFACwhE16F8KLThtDpAJKmwrLhhabcesJDARmJ1ol&id=100063786371409) that they had notified the oil company [Chevron](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevron_Corporation) that the union would be commencing industrial actions [beginning on September 7, 2023](https://maritime-executive.com/article/union-members-authorize-september-strike-at-chevron-australia-s-lng-ops). Under Australia's [Fair Work Act](https://www.fwc.gov.au/issues-we-help/industrial-action/types-industrial-action) employees may take protected [industrial actions](https://www.fairwork.gov.au/tools-and-resources/fact-sheets/rights-and-obligations/industrial-action), such as strikes, go-slows, or protests, when certain conditions are met.\n\nOffshore Alliance announced that the industrial actions would affect three of Chevron's sites in western Australia: Gorgon, Wheatstone downstream, and Wheatstone platform facilities.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before September 25, 2023, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Chevron and Offshore Alliance have reached an agreement which either avoids the commencement of industrial actions currently scheduled for September 7th or ends the industrial actions after they have begun.", "fine_print": "* If Chevron and Offshore Alliance reach an agreement to delay the commencement of industrial actions until after September 25, 2023, for any reason, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n* A limited end to industrial actions, such as at one of the three Australian Chevron facilities, does not qualify. Only a broad agreement between Offshore Alliance and Chevron that avoids or ends the industrial actions qualifies.\n* An announced agreement that ends or avoids the industrial actions is sufficient to resolve as **Yes**, a full agreement, such as an Enterprise Bargaining Agreement, need not be agreed to or ratified.\n* Both parties signing a contract that ends the industrial actions as described above, even one mandated by the government or other intermediator, will result in the question resolving as **Yes**.", "post_id": 18607, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1695390696.968896, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1695390696.968896, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9013464090384026 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.09558381558844703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015220610711278141, 0.0, 0.07222825528385914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01392500882650775, 0.023560770382044207, 0.0, 0.017045521296473166, 0.0, 0.05718011575147788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004599875297244844, 0.0557348588410026, 0.0663340558700189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009362710949132512, 0.0, 0.8030425853219569, 0.09755516300194217, 0.0, 0.09600387904907261, 0.0, 0.08807320997120857, 0.02889739734118714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03867734993865754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006220517787109449, 0.005367575538696657, 0.0, 0.007165678900495897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0039108374539705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001821789957966981, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005292742945254508, 0.0, 0.10179729265546388, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008210459748030398, 0.0011005415108165126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002255205898776533, 0.0, 0.11755141015135048, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6570695930046578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1371657512903841, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09258855488263372, 0.22925142923916692, 0.6177039404822752, 0.1270387594062929, 1.2255201943198553, 10.667832685789373 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.2499846192306228, "coverage": 0.8783543929882117, "baseline_score": -23.591014615549014, "spot_peer_score": 30.584692029138445, "peer_archived_score": 3.2499846192306228, "baseline_archived_score": -23.591014615549014, "spot_peer_archived_score": 30.584692029138445 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1695328179.917061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1695328179.917061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.31761180573994596, 0.682388194260054 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 510, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 28, 2023, [Offshore Alliance](https://offshorealliance.org.au/) — an Australian workers union — [announced](https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid02DaBqp3BcYqVEijr9oDG42VipbFACwhE16F8KLThtDpAJKmwrLhhabcesJDARmJ1ol&id=100063786371409) that they had notified the oil company [Chevron](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevron_Corporation) that the union would be commencing industrial actions [beginning on September 7, 2023](https://maritime-executive.com/article/union-members-authorize-september-strike-at-chevron-australia-s-lng-ops). Under Australia's [Fair Work Act](https://www.fwc.gov.au/issues-we-help/industrial-action/types-industrial-action) employees may take protected [industrial actions](https://www.fairwork.gov.au/tools-and-resources/fact-sheets/rights-and-obligations/industrial-action), such as strikes, go-slows, or protests, when certain conditions are met.\n\nOffshore Alliance announced that the industrial actions would affect three of Chevron's sites in western Australia: Gorgon, Wheatstone downstream, and Wheatstone platform facilities." }, { "id": 18606, "title": "Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?", "short_title": "Trump Removed or Blocked From General Ballot", "url_title": "Trump Removed or Blocked From General Ballot", "slug": "trump-removed-or-blocked-from-general-ballot", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [ { "id": 144313, "username": "tburr" }, { "id": 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"user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18606, "title": "Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?", "created_at": "2023-08-29T21:26:52.217855Z", "open_time": "2023-08-31T19:44:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-01T00:45:47.066578Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-01T00:45:47.066578Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T17:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-13T17:44:15.727347Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution has a section known as the \"Disqualification Clause\" or Section 3, which may disqualify individuals from holding federal or state office if they have \"engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the [U.S.], or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.\" Given the events surrounding the January 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, this section has become a subject of considerable debate with respect to former President Donald Trump's eligibility to run for federal office again.\n\nIn New Hampshire, Bryant \"Corky\" Messner, an attorney who ran for U.S. Senate in 2020 with Trump's endorsement, has [expressed intentions to file a legal challenge](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2023/08/29/trump-14th-amendment-new-hampshire-gop-feuds-as-states-grapple-with-disqualifying-trump-from-ballot/?sh=70038b512e9a) questioning Trump's 2024 candidacy under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. The Republican Secretary of State of New Hampshire, David Scanlan, while not actively seeking to remove any candidates, has stated that he will seek legal advice on the issue. Additionally, Michigan’s Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson has indicated that she will seek a legal opinion on this matter. Voters have also filed lawsuits in Florida and Michigan on the issue. Legal battles are widely expected, and these disputes might reach the U.S. Supreme Court.\n\nThis question focuses on whether these and similar ongoing discussions and legal challenges will result in Donald Trump being removed from the general election ballot of any state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment by November 5, 2024, the date of the presidential election.\n\n**Note: This question focuses on removal from a general election ballot. Another question focuses on Trump's removal from a [primary ballot](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18716/trump-removed-or-blocked-from-primary-ballot/).**", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, *on* November 5, 2024:\n\nDonald Trump has been officially removed or blocked from the *general election* ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office (President, Senate, House of Representatives) under the grounds of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.\n\nThe removal or block is confirmed through official state government announcements, court decisions, legal documentation, or credible media reports. Speculative reports, opinion pieces, or unofficial announcements will not suffice for resolution.\n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if these conditions are not met on November 5, 2024.\n\nNote: The question does not account for legal battles, appeals, or subsequent reversals that might occur *after* the mentioned date. It strictly pertains to whether Donald Trump has been removed from any state's general election ballot for a federal office under the specified grounds as of November 5, 2024. If Trump is removed or blocked from a general election ballot and then reinstated, such that as of November 5th he is not removed or blocked from any general election ballot, the question resolves negatively.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18606, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730736407.199678, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 146, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730736407.199678, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 146, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.996, 0.004 ], "means": [ 0.012070955871510984 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.237038928868945, 7.178428843450608, 0.8886522361760868, 0.02769782211779881, 0.20076894742499896, 0.17453716475031872, 0.08682061756274201, 0.09168692461600703, 0.09214996930417944, 0.020288659350531552, 0.11385564188488141, 0.0, 0.02826272980935872, 0.003578175663506971, 0.0, 0.04435697325327465, 0.06605592858546377, 0.30902476521815747, 0.012254032337769174, 0.0, 0.05450475422251754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015588045115705885, 0.0036395984740292655, 0.0, 0.0003935095242442667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019682473552636854, 0.0, 0.0009498235798807117, 0.014860655936507523, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.549372438616996e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003413825612036075, 0.0, 0.0, 3.196096747709772e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006657720224069577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005771387592995737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016760582186144154 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 93.2925548946329, "peer_score": 18.83638559191238, "coverage": 0.999977260297521, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999977260297521, "spot_peer_score": 19.39490410611687, "baseline_archived_score": 93.2925548946329, "peer_archived_score": 18.83638559191238, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.39490410611687 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289459.724625, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289459.724625, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 363, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution has a section known as the \"Disqualification Clause\" or Section 3, which may disqualify individuals from holding federal or state office if they have \"engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the [U.S.], or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.\" Given the events surrounding the January 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, this section has become a subject of considerable debate with respect to former President Donald Trump's eligibility to run for federal office again.\n\nIn New Hampshire, Bryant \"Corky\" Messner, an attorney who ran for U.S. Senate in 2020 with Trump's endorsement, has [expressed intentions to file a legal challenge](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2023/08/29/trump-14th-amendment-new-hampshire-gop-feuds-as-states-grapple-with-disqualifying-trump-from-ballot/?sh=70038b512e9a) questioning Trump's 2024 candidacy under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. The Republican Secretary of State of New Hampshire, David Scanlan, while not actively seeking to remove any candidates, has stated that he will seek legal advice on the issue. Additionally, Michigan’s Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson has indicated that she will seek a legal opinion on this matter. Voters have also filed lawsuits in Florida and Michigan on the issue. Legal battles are widely expected, and these disputes might reach the U.S. Supreme Court.\n\nThis question focuses on whether these and similar ongoing discussions and legal challenges will result in Donald Trump being removed from the general election ballot of any state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment by November 5, 2024, the date of the presidential election.\n\n**Note: This question focuses on removal from a general election ballot. Another question focuses on Trump's removal from a [primary ballot](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18716/trump-removed-or-blocked-from-primary-ballot/).**" }, { "id": 18601, "title": "Will a retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) go live in the USA and become available for public use before 2031?", "short_title": "Retail CBDC in the USA Before 2031?", "url_title": "Retail CBDC in the USA Before 2031?", "slug": "retail-cbdc-in-the-usa-before-2031", "author_id": 151696, "author_username": "foresightbureau", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-29T16:54:59.646795Z", "published_at": "2023-09-01T01:50:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-26T07:00:08.274222Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-01T01:50:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-01T01:50:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18601, "title": "Will a retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) go live in the USA and become available for public use before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-08-29T16:54:59.646795Z", "open_time": "2023-09-01T01:50:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-03T01:50:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-03T01:50:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A CBDC is a digital currency issued by a country's central bank. They are similar to cash, but they exist only in digital form. CBDCs can be used for both retail and wholesale payments. Retail CBDCs are designed for use by individuals and businesses. They can be used to make payments for goods and services, just like cash. Whereas wholesale CBDCs are designed for use by financial institutions to settle payments between banks and other financial institutions.\n\nThe Federal Reserve’s FedNow system went live on July 20th, 2023 to replace the Fedwire system, and is to all intents and purposes a wholesale CBDC: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20230720a.htm\n\nCBDCs offer a number of potential benefits, such as faster and cheaper payments compared to traditional payment methods, such as checks and wire transfers. They also claim to increase financial inclusion by making it easier for people to access and use digital money.\nCBDCs can also reduce risk of fraud by providing a more secure and transparent way to make payments.\n\nHowever, there are also some challenges associated with CBDCs, such as privacy concerns as all transactions are recorded on a central ledger. This raises all kinds of ethical, and security issues. That’s because the technology behind CBDCs will enable every transaction to potentially be monitored and controlled in real-time by the governments and central banks that issue them. \nAs of March 2023, over 90 central banks are exploring the possibility of issuing CBDCs, and a number of them have already launched pilot projects. This suggests that there is a growing consensus among central banks that CBDCs have the potential to improve the efficiency and security of the financial system.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if a statement appears on the Federal Reserve's official website https://www.federalreserve.gov stating that a US retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) aka “digital dollar” has officially gone live and has become available for use by the public before January 1, 2031.", "fine_print": "Here is a definition of a CBDC according to the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/cbdc-faqs.htm", "post_id": 18601, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763500692.163388, "end_time": 1764699862.589846, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.314 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763500692.163388, "end_time": 1764699862.589846, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.314 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2793958002908618 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4138723464679417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20077883994766343, 1.8426957011924392, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6419315407681068, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7490672709776599, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289651.142763, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289651.142763, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.807067183809766, 0.19293281619023397 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A CBDC is a digital currency issued by a country's central bank. They are similar to cash, but they exist only in digital form. CBDCs can be used for both retail and wholesale payments. Retail CBDCs are designed for use by individuals and businesses. They can be used to make payments for goods and services, just like cash. Whereas wholesale CBDCs are designed for use by financial institutions to settle payments between banks and other financial institutions.\n\nThe Federal Reserve’s FedNow system went live on July 20th, 2023 to replace the Fedwire system, and is to all intents and purposes a wholesale CBDC: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20230720a.htm\n\nCBDCs offer a number of potential benefits, such as faster and cheaper payments compared to traditional payment methods, such as checks and wire transfers. They also claim to increase financial inclusion by making it easier for people to access and use digital money.\nCBDCs can also reduce risk of fraud by providing a more secure and transparent way to make payments.\n\nHowever, there are also some challenges associated with CBDCs, such as privacy concerns as all transactions are recorded on a central ledger. This raises all kinds of ethical, and security issues. That’s because the technology behind CBDCs will enable every transaction to potentially be monitored and controlled in real-time by the governments and central banks that issue them. \nAs of March 2023, over 90 central banks are exploring the possibility of issuing CBDCs, and a number of them have already launched pilot projects. This suggests that there is a growing consensus among central banks that CBDCs have the potential to improve the efficiency and security of the financial system." }, { "id": 18561, "title": "Will a city with a population of over 1 million people publicly credit the use of high-resolution satellite imagery in reducing traffic congestion in a specific area before 2031?", "short_title": "Satellite Imagery Reduces Congestion By 2031?", "url_title": "Satellite Imagery Reduces Congestion By 2031?", "slug": "satellite-imagery-reduces-congestion-by-2031", "author_id": 136675, "author_username": "exoplanet_emma", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-28T14:17:40.513937Z", "published_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T02:58:15.094161Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2333, "type": "question_series", "name": "Space Technology & Climate", "slug": "space-tech-climate", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/solar_power_system_floating_above_the_earth_in_spa_7655d149-fe8b-4d03-9975-6eab5c07e9e9.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-01T17:30:29Z", "close_date": "2035-02-01T18:30:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:20:12.709496Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2333, "type": "question_series", "name": "Space Technology & Climate", "slug": "space-tech-climate", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/solar_power_system_floating_above_the_earth_in_spa_7655d149-fe8b-4d03-9975-6eab5c07e9e9.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-01T17:30:29Z", "close_date": "2035-02-01T18:30:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:20:12.709496Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18561, "title": "Will a city with a population of over 1 million people publicly credit the use of high-resolution satellite imagery in reducing traffic congestion in a specific area before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-08-28T14:17:40.513937Z", "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T14:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Traffic congestion is a persistent problem in many large cities, affecting quality of life and contributing to environmental degradation. High-resolution satellite imagery and other data analytics tools [offer city planners a new layer of insights](https://ts2.space/en/satellite-imagery-and-the-future-of-smart-cities/) for making more informed decisions. These technological advancements have the potential to be used in various aspects of urban planning, including strategies aimed at reducing traffic congestion. As cities search for innovative solutions, will high-resolution satellite imagery be publicly credited for its role in a successful traffic reduction project before 2031?", "resolution_criteria": "1. This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2031, a city anywhere in the world with a population of over 1 million people credits high-resolution satellite imagery in reducing traffic congestion in one or more areas in the city.\n2. The city must publicly credit high-resolution satellite imagery as a significant tool used in a project to reduce traffic congestion in a specific area. High-resolution satellite imagery need not be the only tool mentioned, but it must be mentioned as playing an important role in the congestion reduction efforts.\n3. The credit must be given in an official capacity, such as in a press release, public announcement, or governmental report.\n4. The project must result in a documented reduction in traffic congestion in the specified area.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18561, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763348284.354738, "end_time": 1764579252.117095, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763348284.354738, "end_time": 1764579252.117095, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.4431154749426234 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17136970778169644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581411659280016, 0.6740515249111422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.772330576101931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07533680859673718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.4326949339433014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5851433699949685, 0.23885955412496435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3098791564968262, 1.1426457739235931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5049099362635194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287412.696987, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287412.696987, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6266226218417752, 0.37337737815822486 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Traffic congestion is a persistent problem in many large cities, affecting quality of life and contributing to environmental degradation. High-resolution satellite imagery and other data analytics tools [offer city planners a new layer of insights](https://ts2.space/en/satellite-imagery-and-the-future-of-smart-cities/) for making more informed decisions. These technological advancements have the potential to be used in various aspects of urban planning, including strategies aimed at reducing traffic congestion. As cities search for innovative solutions, will high-resolution satellite imagery be publicly credited for its role in a successful traffic reduction project before 2031?" }, { "id": 18560, "title": "Will a proof-of-concept experiment for space-based carbon capture be successfully completed before 2031?", "short_title": "Space-Based Carbon Capture Test by 2031?", "url_title": "Space-Based Carbon Capture Test by 2031?", "slug": "space-based-carbon-capture-test-by-2031", "author_id": 136675, "author_username": "exoplanet_emma", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-28T13:31:24.957326Z", "published_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-10T07:23:12.215529Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": 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Technology & Climate", "slug": "space-tech-climate", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/solar_power_system_floating_above_the_earth_in_spa_7655d149-fe8b-4d03-9975-6eab5c07e9e9.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-01T17:30:29Z", "close_date": "2035-02-01T18:30:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:20:12.709496Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18560, "title": "Will a proof-of-concept experiment for space-based carbon capture be successfully completed before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-08-28T13:31:24.957326Z", "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Space-based carbon capture is a hypothetical concept based on the [method of carbon removal](https://ec.europa.eu/research-and-innovation/en/horizon-magazine/system-rid-space-station-astronaut-exhalations-inspires-earth-based-co2-removal#:~:text=The%20CO2%20breathed%20by%20astronauts,to%20the%20vacuum%20of%20space) in the International Space Station. The concept involves using specific technologies to capture and store atmospheric carbon dioxide to launch it into space. While the idea is still largely theoretical and presents various technical and ethical challenges, it represents an innovative approach that could add another tool in the fight against climate change.\n\nCurrent carbon capture technologies focus mainly on terrestrial storage, such as injecting captured carbon into geological formations. However, the concept of space-based carbon capture opens new frontiers for consideration. It would require advancements in carbon capture technology, rocket propulsion, and storage solutions, as well as addressing numerous ethical concerns, such as the potential risks associated with launching potentially hazardous materials into space.\n\nGiven the increasing urgency of climate issues and the innovative potential of space-based carbon capture, will a proof-of-concept experiment be successfully completed before 2031?", "resolution_criteria": "1. This question will resolve as **Yes** if a proof-of-concept experiment for space-based carbon capture is successfully completed and the results are publicly reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) before January 1, 2031.\n2. The experiment must specifically focus on \"space-based carbon capture,\" which involves capturing and storing atmospheric carbon dioxide to launch it into space.\n3. The experiment must be considered a \"proof-of-concept,\" meaning it demonstrates the basic feasibility of capturing carbon dioxide from the Earth's atmosphere and preparing it for space-based storage or disposal.\n4. \"Successfully completed\" means that the experiment completed its stated goals or objectives, as reported by the team conducting the experiment or as confirmed by peer review or other independent evaluation. The results need not demonstrate the feasibility of the method, negative results are sufficient.", "fine_print": "Metaculus will not conduct an exhaustive search of all relevant research publications and will instead determine resolution based on information available from standard web searches, including searches for journal publications.", "post_id": 18560, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763128073.786872, "end_time": 1763654526.733022, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763128073.786872, "end_time": 1763654526.733022, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.041154402351738735 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.7354626891657094, 1.2139942392790584, 0.0, 0.0, 2.6906530116717775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288103.093224, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288103.093224, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9831907452440422, 0.016809254755957896 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Space-based carbon capture is a hypothetical concept based on the [method of carbon removal](https://ec.europa.eu/research-and-innovation/en/horizon-magazine/system-rid-space-station-astronaut-exhalations-inspires-earth-based-co2-removal#:~:text=The%20CO2%20breathed%20by%20astronauts,to%20the%20vacuum%20of%20space) in the International Space Station. The concept involves using specific technologies to capture and store atmospheric carbon dioxide to launch it into space. While the idea is still largely theoretical and presents various technical and ethical challenges, it represents an innovative approach that could add another tool in the fight against climate change.\n\nCurrent carbon capture technologies focus mainly on terrestrial storage, such as injecting captured carbon into geological formations. However, the concept of space-based carbon capture opens new frontiers for consideration. It would require advancements in carbon capture technology, rocket propulsion, and storage solutions, as well as addressing numerous ethical concerns, such as the potential risks associated with launching potentially hazardous materials into space.\n\nGiven the increasing urgency of climate issues and the innovative potential of space-based carbon capture, will a proof-of-concept experiment be successfully completed before 2031?" }, { "id": 18556, "title": "Long Bets series: Will Private Nonfarm business productivity growth average over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4)?", "short_title": "US productivity growth over 1.8%?", "url_title": "US productivity growth over 1.8%?", "slug": "us-productivity-growth-over-18", "author_id": 153157, "author_username": "DavidHume", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-28T08:53:14.475353Z", "published_at": "2023-10-27T02:39:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T15:32:06.381796Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-27T02:39:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-10-27T02:39:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18556, "title": "Long Bets series: Will Private Nonfarm business productivity growth average over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4)?", "created_at": "2023-08-28T08:53:14.475353Z", "open_time": "2023-10-27T02:39:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-30T02:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-30T02:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is inspired by the linked [Long Bet](https://longbets.org/868/) between Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert J Gordon.\n\nThe bet concerns US total factor productivity, which is a nice proxy for economic productivity and living standards. \n\n> \"Where does 1.8 percent fit into the historical record? For perspective consider the productivity growth record over five intervals: 3.2 percent per year (1948-72), 1.5 (1973-95), 3.3 (1996-2004), 2.1 (2005-2009), and 1.1 (2010-2019). \" - Robert Gordon\n\nThe question concerns the viability and efficacy of now emerging technologies and current economic trends in influencing total factor productivity growth for the 2020s.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if [Long Bets](https://longbets.org/about/) or the Long Now Foundation declares that private nonfarm business productivity growth has averaged over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4), and therefore Erik Brynjolfsson has won the bet with Robert J Gordon.\n\nIt resolves No if Robert J Gordon is declared the winner.\n\nThe question resolves early if either Erik Brynjolfsson or Robert J Gordon concedes the bet.\n\nIf Long Bets or the Long Now Foundation does not declare a winner before January 1, 2031, Metaculus administrators will resolve the question using US Bureau of Labor Statistics when the 2029 Q4 data becomes available. If this source of data is not available, Metaculus will use the closest analogous source of information.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18556, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763134315.675499, "end_time": 1769982810.680387, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763134315.675499, "end_time": 1769982810.680387, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.46992499280535566 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289291.782401, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289291.782401, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.685070005074043, 0.31492999492595697 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 39, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is inspired by the linked [Long Bet](https://longbets.org/868/) between Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert J Gordon.\n\nThe bet concerns US total factor productivity, which is a nice proxy for economic productivity and living standards. \n\n> \"Where does 1.8 percent fit into the historical record? For perspective consider the productivity growth record over five intervals: 3.2 percent per year (1948-72), 1.5 (1973-95), 3.3 (1996-2004), 2.1 (2005-2009), and 1.1 (2010-2019). \" - Robert Gordon\n\nThe question concerns the viability and efficacy of now emerging technologies and current economic trends in influencing total factor productivity growth for the 2020s." } ] }
