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Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?

Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.

Incidents of civil unrest are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the 1992 Los Angeles riots, during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested. Property damage was estimated at more than $1bn.

As of 31 May 2020, major US cities have seen civil unrest after the 25 May death of George Floyd in a police encounter. The George Floyd protests are ongoing and some have involved violence. Moreover, much of the US is still under stay-at-home orders related to COVID-19 and unemployment is at record highs.

This question asks: Will the United States experience widespread rioting in 2020?

For the purposes of this question, 'large-scale rioting' is defined as an event of rioting or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions is met:

  1. At least 150 people die due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.

  2. At least 30,000 people are arrested by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.

  3. Property damages are credibly estimated at $3 billion or more. This estimate may come from local governments in which the incidents take place, state governments, the federal government, or a major US news publication such as the New York Times, Washington Post, or major broadcast news networks.

Such events should take place in the US (for the purposes of this question, inclusive of all 50 U.S. states and Washington D.C.) and should occur within a 14 day period.

Resolution should cite a government statement or credible news reports that indicate that any of the above conditions have been met by an event of rioting.


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