Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5700
{ "count": 6412, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5720", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5680", "results": [ { "id": 2613, "title": "Will Richard Branson fail to go to space on July 20th 2019?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-richard-branson-fail-to-go-to-space-on-july-20th-2019", "author_id": 105951, "author_username": "Sylvain", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-02-08T09:04:49.814010Z", "published_at": "2019-02-11T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.899027Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-02-11T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-03-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-03-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-07-21T00:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-07-21T00:05:00Z", "open_time": "2019-02-11T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2613, "title": "Will Richard Branson fail to go to space on July 20th 2019?", "created_at": "2019-02-08T09:04:49.814010Z", "open_time": "2019-02-11T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-02-11T09:51:25.241806Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-02-11T09:51:25.241806Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-07-21T00:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-07-21T00:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-07-21T00:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-03-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-03-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Sir Richard Branson [announced](https://phys.org/news/2019-02-richard-branson-hell-space-july.html) in February 2019 that he \"hopes\" to fly to space, aboard Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo, on the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landing.\n\n**Will he fail?**\n\nResolves *negatively* if Richard Branson is both alive and at an altitude above 80km at any point on 2019-07-20. The way he reached that altitude does not matter to resolution. Resolves *positively* in all other cases (he doesn't try, he tries but fails, etc.).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2613, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1553960841.369473, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1553960841.369473, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.6506134017383626 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.013492534825694926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0361372874092818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04701716540950928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5935735468969371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20210155877979102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46572683269050547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7770314752182306, 0.0, 0.15134482788356746, 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[ { "start_time": 1553899970.085942, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1553899970.085942, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4233306909901352, 0.5766693090098648 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 134, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 2611, "title": "Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?", "short_title": "Synthetic Bio Weapons Infect 100 by 2030", "url_title": "Synthetic Bio Weapons Infect 100 by 2030", "slug": "synthetic-bio-weapons-infect-100-by-2030", "author_id": 109243, "author_username": "SynthBioWpnsKill1GHum2050", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-02-04T12:56:17.480611Z", "published_at": "2019-02-09T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T21:20:57.433255Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-02-09T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2019-02-09T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 161, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2611, "title": "Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?", "created_at": "2019-02-04T12:56:17.480611Z", "open_time": "2019-02-09T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-02-10T11:15:21.622000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-02-10T11:15:21.622000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A [synthetic biological weapon](https://futurism.com/project-spark-ontario-health-data) is a 'living' agent capable of infecting, harming, and/or killing a target host. For the purposes of this question, we focus on human hosts, exclude weapons that consist only of toxins, even if their source is biological: synthetic or otherwise. Nor does it include something like a genetically engineered mosquito carrying natural unmodified malaria. 'Living' means it must either be self-reproducing, like a bacteria or parasite, or like a virus, capable of hijacking a host cell to produce new copies of itself. A synthetic biological agent may be a 'natural' disease causing organism that has at least been genetically engineered (and not merely selectively bred); an entirely new kind of organism, virus, or similar created from scratch; or anything in between those extremes. \n\nIf the agent is based on an existing disease causing organism, there must be confirmation that the symptoms of infection by the disease causing agent(s) are confirmed by a credible medical source to be different than those of the original, or alternatively that the infectious 'behavior', or capabilities of the agent are confirmed different than the original. This is to exclude infections that are medically indistuingishable from the natural version, which might make cases too difficult to verify. \n\nThe consequences of infection must be undesireable - ie, not something that could concievably be offered as a product for improving the health of a customer, to improve athletic or cognitive abilities, for recreational use, or any other purpose desireable to those infected. It must be confirmed to be at least *capable* of adversely impacting the victims' physical or mental health, making them smell in a way that attracts trained dogs, causing them to develop an addiction to some brand of fast food, or some other undesireable effect.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a credible medical source announces at least 100 people are confirmed \"infected\" by one or more confirmed synthetic \"biological weapon\"s and that this has occured before 2030. The consequences of infection may or may not be immediately harmful. An agent can even be latent, or cause a delayed onset of disease, as long as the agent is still present and functional 24 hrs after infection (as opposed to being destroyed by the immune system). But if it causes some definite, confirmed harmful effect, and then self-destructs before 24 hrs have passed, that would still count. The infection can result from a terrorist attack, attack on enemy military personnel, an experiment, accident, with the infected persons' consent, or from any other cause", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2611, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763347538.76621, "end_time": 1763970782.965259, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763347538.76621, "end_time": 1763970782.965259, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.76, 0.24 ], "means": [ 0.28584237741259366 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.9518130621787826, 1.0, 0.38155839252863605, 0.0, 0.008533746853385664, 0.0, 0.5436228565678125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001864145364888126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0047336436668202, 0.0, 1.0201084691824207, 0.0, 1.129565438449961, 0.6353801166672093, 0.060784385723977465, 1.8404734023970433, 0.12598527276869514, 0.0, 0.29944924663793554, 1.6465214756419164, 1.2809665555406105, 0.0035855593080206124, 0.03472919891264689, 0.0, 0.0, 1.289553298941744, 0.0, 0.2086828392994221, 0.7792708310757614, 0.4378485049407744, 0.34270565951344123, 0.4721839082273239, 0.15845768353311826, 0.03926930286931794, 0.08876766222876639, 0.9814400500033114, 0.07742044277923696, 0.3951745079478974, 0.003273724560877426, 0.0, 0.17244830922366777, 0.013327313936343727, 0.0, 0.00036601963165768176, 0.002173947810946528, 0.1388019763335805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007064033012232248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6629723611029588, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14036083304571867, 0.0, 0.0023114353921099623, 0.0, 0.0942775471176548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16825218906549758, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6693688084892222, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3739099914214421, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11257915099332376 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287893.875755, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287893.875755, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8107641530687988, 0.1892358469312012 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 32, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 410, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A [synthetic biological weapon](https://futurism.com/project-spark-ontario-health-data) is a 'living' agent capable of infecting, harming, and/or killing a target host. For the purposes of this question, we focus on human hosts, exclude weapons that consist only of toxins, even if their source is biological: synthetic or otherwise. Nor does it include something like a genetically engineered mosquito carrying natural unmodified malaria. 'Living' means it must either be self-reproducing, like a bacteria or parasite, or like a virus, capable of hijacking a host cell to produce new copies of itself. A synthetic biological agent may be a 'natural' disease causing organism that has at least been genetically engineered (and not merely selectively bred); an entirely new kind of organism, virus, or similar created from scratch; or anything in between those extremes. \n\nIf the agent is based on an existing disease causing organism, there must be confirmation that the symptoms of infection by the disease causing agent(s) are confirmed by a credible medical source to be different than those of the original, or alternatively that the infectious 'behavior', or capabilities of the agent are confirmed different than the original. This is to exclude infections that are medically indistuingishable from the natural version, which might make cases too difficult to verify. \n\nThe consequences of infection must be undesireable - ie, not something that could concievably be offered as a product for improving the health of a customer, to improve athletic or cognitive abilities, for recreational use, or any other purpose desireable to those infected. It must be confirmed to be at least *capable* of adversely impacting the victims' physical or mental health, making them smell in a way that attracts trained dogs, causing them to develop an addiction to some brand of fast food, or some other undesireable effect." }, { "id": 2610, "title": "Will the current Dutch cabinet keep a majority in the Dutch senate after the election on May 27 2019?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-current-dutch-cabinet-keep-a-majority-in-the-dutch-senate-after-the-election-on-may-27-2019", "author_id": 104020, "author_username": "Scharco", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-02-04T10:22:45.590428Z", "published_at": "2019-02-07T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.229972Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-02-07T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-05-26T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-05-26T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-06-05T14:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-06-05T14:45:00Z", "open_time": "2019-02-07T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 43, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2610, "title": "Will the current Dutch cabinet keep a majority in the Dutch senate after the election on May 27 2019?", "created_at": "2019-02-04T10:22:45.590428Z", "open_time": "2019-02-07T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-02-09T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-02-09T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-06-05T14:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-06-05T14:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-06-05T14:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-05-26T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-05-26T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "An election to the Senate of the Netherlands will be held on 27 May 2019, two months after the provincial elections.\n\nThe Senate consists of 75 members elected every four years by the members of the States-Provincial of the country's twelve provinces, who are in turn elected directly by the citizens on March 20 2019.\n\nThe cabinet in The Netherlands contains representatives from four political parties: [VVD, CDA, Christenunie and D66](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Dutch_Senate_election#cite_note-6). At the moment they have 38 seats in the Dutch senate with the following breakdown: VVD (13), CDA (12), D66 (10) CU (3). This is more than half of the total 75 seats. \n\nThis resolves positively if, after the election, the cabinet consists of the same parties (VVD, CDA, Christenunie and D66), and the sum of senate seats held by these parties continues to be a majority.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2610, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1558900758.908962, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1558900758.908962, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.23782391551693519 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3759197448163135, 0.5711497695058697, 0.9937843683500358, 0.7922460993238396, 0.024016566893208465, 0.0, 0.9329086373314859, 0.008023442444365229, 0.0, 0.19043220276906433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2106750195973517, 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"resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Due to the DeepMind team's [recent achievements](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii/) with Alphastar, superhuman decision-making in StarCraft 2 is now on the horizon. I envision this technology becoming a platform that can be used by Blizzard and independent modders for many applications. \n\nOne example is a neural network that not only plays the game, but does so by simulating human hands, a mouse, and a keyboard in order to represent human play as faithfully as possible. But in the short term, this could also be acheived by simply constraining Alphastar to mimic the human keystroke and mouse movement data that it already has access to. Right now the AI plays the game in ways that are probably impossible for humans to reproduce, but a properly constrained AI could discover the theoretical optimal strategies and meta for humans, which the player community could then learn from. \n\nSuch accurately representative simulations would also make it possible to design a more perfectly balanced version of the game, as well as reliably dictate a meta that encourages desired play styles. This could be done for the professional scene in particular, but also for all other levels of player proficiency. \n\nIt could perhaps be possible to create AIs on demand that play in various predefined styles, e.g. mimic individual human players, or play at a skill level so accurately defined that it can serve as the new benchmark for player rankings and leagues. Or it could do all of these at once, eventually. It could be possible to use insights from the AI's self assessment mechanisms to design a customizeable training \"coach\" for players. Alphastar is already made to calculate a win/loss prediction, continuously updating in response to the gamestate (see in linked article). I'm sure players would love to see graphs of win/loss prediction for their games.\n\nDo you think that AI will be applied in these ways to SC2 in the future? Do you think this will invigorate the player community, and introduce new possibilities, to such a degree that this incentivizes Blizzard to announce new content in 2021?\n\nThis question asks:\n\n**In 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI?**\n \nNew content means: \n\n1) A new game, which would be a third installment (and which may be something Blizzard is already considering, regardless of AI), but is not really necessary considering SC2's remaining popularity.\n\n2) An expansion pack for StarCraft 2, which would be the third, or even StarCraft, which would be second.\n\n3) Or a patch that is not as big as an expansion, but is unprecedented in scale and scope relative to all previous patches. This means it has to be something more than and distinct from:\n\n -new skins,\n -new maps,\n -or more balance patches,\n\nall three of which occur pretty routinely.\n\nNew contents must be announced in the form of an official Blizzard press release. (Or, in the unlikely event of the IP getting sold, whoever owns StarCraft). 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In 2017, US military spending accounted for some $610 billion, 35% of global military spending in that year.", "resolution_criteria": "***Will any country spend more on its military / defense in a given year before (and including) 2030 than the United States spends in the same year?***\n\nResolution should cite official budget figures from the United States and the other country in question. Resolves ambiguously if before a positive resolution results there ceases to be a country known as the United States.\n\nOur comparison will use three-year average of exchange rates to smooth effects of transitory exchange rate fluctuations.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2605, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763852058.638569, "end_time": 1765416965.303041, "forecaster_count": 132, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.014 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763852058.638569, "end_time": 1765416965.303041, "forecaster_count": 132, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.014 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.05287192707892689 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5263887511409449, 5.685906392740302, 3.6450817440161485, 4.654709613883085, 1.3977643250549625, 0.7823065173548033, 0.7075163365506416, 0.2666542318299744, 0.2612275145755098, 0.9970575635412895, 0.1662918592286204, 0.710546450500272, 0.01823736163518303, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006182694769904762, 0.09267173938141993, 0.0, 0.7678559467572927, 0.2255698768045348, 0.0, 0.01946201118631382, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21245370345621586, 0.007214324115901492, 0.017027479377469276, 0.0025163136535828025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0052784261957734375, 0.006681688227688632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09788383082833663, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13502540776696953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06257888200243465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037988932298463935 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289470.7439, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 194, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289470.7439, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 194, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9915745495089388, 0.008425450491061201 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 427, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The United States of America spends significantly more in absolute terms on its defense than any other country,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) and this has been the case since World War II. In 2017, US military spending accounted for some $610 billion, 35% of global military spending in that year." }, { "id": 2603, "title": "Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit $30,000 before it hits $20,000?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-dow-jones-industrial-average-hit-30000-before-it-hits-20000", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-01-30T22:12:04.041865Z", "published_at": "2019-02-02T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.155401Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-02-02T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-04-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-04-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-03-17T14:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-17T14:14:00Z", "open_time": "2019-02-02T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2603, "title": "Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit $30,000 before it hits $20,000?", "created_at": "2019-01-30T22:12:04.041865Z", "open_time": "2019-02-02T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-02-03T18:36:45.893230Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-02-03T18:36:45.893230Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-03-17T14:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-17T14:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-03-17T14:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-04-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-04-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "A follow-up to [this question.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1670/what-number-will-the-dow-jones-industrial-average-hit-first-20000-or-25000/.)\n\nAs of the close of trading on 30 January 2019, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) sat at 25,014.86.\n\nThe DJIA is a stock market index that indicates the value of 30 large, publicly owned companies based in the United States, and how they have traded in the stock market during various periods of time. The Industrial portion of the name is largely historical, as many of the modern 30 components have little or nothing to do with traditional heavy industry. Along with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite, it is one of the most influential and scrutinized US equity indices.\n\nThis question asks: Will the DJIA hit 30,000 before it next touches 20,000?\n\nResolves positively if the DJIA ever reaches an intraday level above 30,000 before reaching an intraday level of 20,000; resolves negatively if the inverse is true; and resolves ambiguously if (before either condition is met) the DJIA is discontinued or altered to such an extent that, in the view of a Metaculus administrator, it is no longer reasonable to continue this question.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2603, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1556664486.253589, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1556664486.253589, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], 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"binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[The United Kingdom is the world's fifth-largest economy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) and [hasn't suffered a recession since 2009.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_Kingdom) With the result of the 2016 Brexit vote due to be implemented in 2019, and with the UK now 10 years into a period of economic growth, there are concerns that a recession could be looming in the near future.\n\nThis question asks: **Before (and excluding) Q1 2021, will the UK experience two consecutive quarters in which GDP contracts?**\n\nBecause it can take some time for the numbers to be available, this question shall not resolve immediately in January 2021, but several months later. Resolution shall rely on the [Quarterly National Accounts](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/datasets/quarterlynationalaccounts) published by UK statistical authorities rather than any later revisions.\n\nResolution should cite statistical release by the Office for National Statistics, UK Treasury or credible media reports in the financial press.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2601, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1577801038.15152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 140, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.46 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1577801038.15152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 140, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.46 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.54, 0.46 ], "means": [ 0.4388096844882281 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.30216568106763814, 0.0, 0.679338041080694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22580598239192023, 0.0, 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January 28 2019, the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States are as follows.\n\n(Name, ticker symbol, market cap in USD billions)\n\n1. Microsoft Corporation MSFT 806.62\n2. Amazon.com Inc AMZN 800.88\n4. Alphabet Inc GOOG / GOOGL 760.23\n4. Apple Inc AAPL 739.27\n5. Facebook Inc FB 354.29\n6. Johnson & Johnson JNJ 345.95\n7. JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM 345.44\n8. Exxon Mobil Corp XOM 301.62\n9. Bank of America Corp BAC 290.79\n10. Walmart Inc WMT 281.98\n11. Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRK.B 273.85\n12. UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH 256.64\n13. Visa Inc V 238.97\n14. Wells Fargo & Co (New) WFC 234.51\n15. Procter & Gamble Company (The) PG 233.95\n16. Pfizer Inc PFE 228.50\n17. Verizon Communications Inc VZ 227.55\n18. AT&T Inc T 223.22\n19. Chevron Corporation CVX 214.33\n20. Intel Corporation INTC 214.2\n\nNote: Alphabet has three classes of equity securities, of which two are currently admitted to the markets, GOOG and GOOGL. The figure listed above is the combined value of both traded classes of equity securities.\n\nIf any of these companies were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would be one of the [largest corporate bankruptcies in the history of the United States.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_in_the_United_States#Largest_bankruptcies)\n\nThis question asks: **Before 01 January 2025, will any of the aforementioned companies file for bankruptcy protection?**\n\nFor a positive resolution, one of the companies mentioned in this question body text (or successor companies resulting from either rebranding (i.e. a simple name change), mergers or demergers, **as long as the successor company represents at least 50% of the original company by market capitalization at the time it becomes independent, and that is a publicly traded company**) must file for bankruptcy protection in the United States of America under either of the following chapters of the United States Bankruptcy Code: [Chapter 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_7,_Title_11,_United_States_Code), [Chapter 11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_11,_Title_11,_United_States_Code).\n\nResolution is by citation of relevant court filing or by credible media report in the financial press. 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"resolution_set_time": "2019-12-31T15:24:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-03-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-03-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Venezuela is currently undergoing a serious economic, social and now constitutional crisis. Amidst years of accelerating economic decline, hyperinflation and poverty, and accusations that President Maduro is turning the country, once the richest in Latin America, into a dictatorship, the leader of the National Assembly, Juan Guaido has declared the Presidency to be vacant, and himself as the interim President.\n\nThe global community is split, with, Western powers (broadly speaking), including the US, UK, EU, Canada, Australia, Brazil and the rest of the Lima group backing the National Assembly, and Russia, China, Mexico, Iran and Turkey and others backing Maduro.\n\nConcern has been expressed that Guaido's declaration is part of, or a front for, a US backed intervention in Venezuela.\n\nThis question asks whether US troops will intervene in Venezuela this year.\n\nResolution is positive if credible media sources report that more than 100 US ground troops are deployed to Venezuela before the 1st of January 2020, and negative otherwise. 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"slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2588, "title": "Will Tesla have a higher market capitalization than Ford on 01 January 2020?", "created_at": "2019-01-24T23:34:22.310827Z", "open_time": "2019-01-28T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-01-28T15:16:31.350076Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-01-28T15:16:31.350076Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-12-31T19:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-31T19:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-12-31T19:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-05-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-05-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "As of January 24th 2019, [Tesla Inc has a market capitalization of $50.062 billion](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/?guccounter=1) and [Ford Motor Company has a market capitalization of $34.21 billion.](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/F/)\n\nFord was founded in 1903 and in 2017 produced 6.6 million vehicles generating revenue of $156.7 billion, with a net income of $7.602 billion.\n\nTesla was founded in 2003 and in 2017 produced 101,312 vehicles generating revenue of $11.759 billion, with a net **loss** of $1.961 billion.\n\n**On 1 January 2020, will Tesla still have a larger market capitalization than Ford?**\n\nResolves positively if Tesla's market capitalization is greater than Ford's by any amount on 01 January 2020. Resolves negatively if the inverse is true or if both have exactly the same market capitalization. Resolves ambiguously if either company is not a publicly traded company on that date.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2588, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1559335584.670618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1559335584.670618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.40000298403998824 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6851131561779339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.402619007983522, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33954082662753127, 0.0, 0.03101129919345409, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034311721361839085, 1.7670285470890907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7444502664577535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03354609775351218, 0.0, 0.16137486964423006, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9057822708439525, 2.5249939066883664, 2.222738890466826, 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"2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2587, "title": "Will any piece of art be sold for more than $450.3 million in 2019?", "created_at": "2019-01-24T00:02:30.388595Z", "open_time": "2019-01-27T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-01-27T12:28:34.235024Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-01-27T12:28:34.235024Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-12-31T18:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-31T18:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-12-31T18:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-05-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-05-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In 2017, Leonardo da Vinci's [Salvator Mundi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salvator_Mundi_(Leonardo)) sold at auction at Christie's in New York City for [$450.3 million.](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-art-auction-da-vinci-abudhabi/abu-dhabi-to-acquire-leonardo-da-vincis-salvator-mundi-christies-idUSKBN1E22IN) The painting was sold by Dmitry Rybolovlev and the buyer was the Abu Dhabi Department of Culture & Tourism. This was the highest price ever paid for a single piece of art.\n\nThis question asks: **Before 1 January 2020, will any other single piece of art be sold for more than $450.3 million?**\n\nResolution should cite a press release from either the responsible auction house, or the buyer or seller (or their agents) of the artwork in question, or credible press reports.\n\nThe artwork must be a single piece, not a collection, and the consideration exchanged must be for the artwork only, excluding any other property included in the sale. The consideration may include any combination of cash, cash equivalents, equity, debt, real property or other financial assets, so long as the total value of the consideration exceeds $450.3 million according to either the seller, buyer, or agents acting on their behalf, or credible media reports.\n\nIn the event of a sale in which the value is confidential but is reported to be more than $450.3 million by a reputable source, that sale shall be considered to have met the critera. \n\nThe sale must be agreed to on or after January 1 2019 and before 1 January 2020, but physical custody of the artwork need not pass to the new owner before that date.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2587, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1559310983.616822, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1559310983.616822, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 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Troubles](https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/a-history-of-terrorism-in-europe/??noredirect=on). During those thirty years, [nearly 500 attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_incidents_in_London#Republican_attacks_during_the_Troubles) were carried out. Many treaties and agreements were made, but only the Good Friday Agreement successfully put an end to the attacks and led to a disarmament of all paramilitary groups.\n\nThe United Kingdom leaving the European Union may jeopardise that, since the—over the decades pacified, and in many contexts barely existent—border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland would turn into an [external border for the EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/External_border_of_the_European_Union). Crossing such a border would require passports and controls and all kinds of bureaucracy, in contrast to the non-issue crossing that border had turned into over the years.\n\nThus we ask: \n\n**Will we see a possible resurgence of the Troubles?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if former or renewed IRA, former or renewed UVF, or similarly politically positioned groups initiate or execute\n\n* three or more attacks over the span of one year (rolling), or\n* 1 or more attacks per year over the span of three years (rolling). \n\nFor the purposes of this question, any attack must occur on the territory of the UK or the Republic of Ireland, or be aimed at people in the U.K. or the Republic of Ireland. Moreover, for the purpose of this question the attack will deemed to have happened if:\n\n- it is claimed by relevant organisations (e.g. New IRA) or declared to be in relation to the conflict between Ireland and Northern Ireland by official sources\n\nand *either* of the following:\n\n- it injures at least one other person (beside the attacker), or\n- it generates damage in excess of £100,000.\n\nThis question resolves negative if such attacks don’t come to pass before 2025. 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"", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "On 18 January 2019, the [White House announced that United States President Donald Trump would meet again with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un near the end of February.](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/18/white-house-next-trump-summit-with-kim-jong-un-will-take-place-near-the-end-of-february.html)\n\nThis question asks: **Will Trump meet Kim before 01 April 2019?**\n\nFor a 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"actual_resolve_time": "2021-10-15T16:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-10-15T16:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-10-01T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "#Context\n\nAirborne Wind Energy (AWE) systems, essentially wind turbines in the sky (e.g. on kites or planes), have been promised for many years. There are several companies, many in Europe, that are working on AWE systems, including (but not limited to):\n\n- [KITE KRAFT](http://www.kitekraft.de/English.html)\n- [Kitepower](https://kitepower.nl/) \n- [SkySails Group](https://skysails-group.com/)\n- [Ampyx Power](https://www.ampyxpower.com/)\n- [SkyPull](https://www.skypull.technology/) \n\nThe basic advantages of AWE's are that one does not need a tower and therefore can use much less construction material to achieve the same amount of power, resulting in significant cost efficiencies. Furthermore, winds at high altitudes tend to be stronger and more stable than on the ground. AWE's also tend to be mobile, and controlled by software.\n\nSome AWE ventures are targeting containerized systems with a nominal power of 100kW. One, Kitepower, is [duration testing a 100kW system](https://kitepower.nl/tech/).\n\n\n#Question\n\nWill an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?\n\n\n#Resolution\n\nThis question will resolve positively if a credible company, customer, or media report establishes the sale of an Airborne Wind System that has a maximum rated power output of at least 100 kW. 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"group_rank": null, "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\n\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \n\nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\n\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\n\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the de facto Head of Government of Scotland formally declares to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, effective at any point between January 1, 2019 to January 1, 2025.\n\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until January 1, 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\n\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, **or** by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\n\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before January 1, 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\n\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2577, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654448.171806, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 627, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654448.171806, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 627, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.016824798790486734 ], "histogram": [ [ 33.901534212538486, 12.108553104855636, 0.421017337578407, 0.46477303182901386, 0.28063132288304155, 0.17566470635395046, 0.11583443475214206, 0.06265546057380823, 0.030450263800601816, 0.020936252216706586, 0.06488504958879411, 0.032239968722919905, 0.0036218900255031218, 0.020945648849392477, 0.02558581965462258, 0.018571069172052878, 0.00022697710992760744, 0.0009116261042330374, 0.0022250516281756647, 7.155491573853905e-05, 0.16924314556372638, 0.0007879228288970118, 0.0015981086585602944, 0.020538879042512406, 0.0007062702190245919, 0.01763088281193996, 0.0036159438808219062, 6.844263043396213e-05, 0.03226424329951878, 0.0, 0.0006325136046786027, 2.6026082646759473e-05, 0.002861633322650468, 0.0003210604198087257, 1.516650610755166e-05, 0.010103748114211388, 1.807266068121982e-08, 9.819259524775676e-05, 0.05605352583163486, 0.0, 0.00012970116750276212, 1.3468456177022449e-05, 8.955575764397978e-06, 0.01230743890500607, 0.0, 4.503032674656837e-08, 1.4836311245563426e-06, 2.171770007791959e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 3.678509596512168e-10, 3.2713938661798638e-06, 0.0004191458745006517, 0.0, 0.0001519603020692665, 0.001514407417492937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5152833615801657e-07, 1.0007069220928076e-05, 0.0, 3.009266171519689e-05, 3.944475181088935e-09, 9.152259815447369e-07, 0.0037062082654286416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023327088720630647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0570084119913565e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.977735521210094e-08, 0.0, 1.1428358234827211e-07, 7.134133490983048e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4929909023078204 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 82.71570010475182, "peer_score": 13.087299635071984, "coverage": 0.9999899000725943, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999899000725943, "spot_peer_score": 1.2508094555401592, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 82.71570010475182, "peer_archived_score": 13.087299635071984, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.2508094555401592, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289476.167668, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 624, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289476.167668, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 624, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 59, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1612, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\n\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \n\nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\n\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\n\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future." }, { "id": 2573, "title": "Will the current Ebola outbreak claim more than 1000 lives?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-current-ebola-outbreak-claim-more-than-1000-lives", "author_id": 103733, "author_username": "jzima", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-01-16T17:01:21.782711Z", "published_at": "2019-01-19T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.089316Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-01-19T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-03-16T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-03-16T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-05-02T20:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-05-02T20:08:00Z", "open_time": "2019-01-19T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2573, "title": "Will the current Ebola outbreak claim more than 1000 lives?", "created_at": "2019-01-16T17:01:21.782711Z", "open_time": "2019-01-19T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-01-20T23:44:32.578077Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-01-20T23:44:32.578077Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-05-02T20:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-05-02T20:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-05-02T20:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-03-16T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-03-16T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "It was <a href='https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1580/will-the-current-ebola-outbreak-be-stopped-before-it-claims-400-lives/'>previously asked</a>, whether the <a href='https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Kivu_Ebola_outbreak'>current Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo</a> would be stopped before it killed 400 people. Sadly, that question resolved negatively and the death toll (as of the writing of this question) has reached 402.\n\nIt is unclear whether the outbreak will be contained in the near future or whether it will be able to spread.\n\nIn order to get a question that should resolve in the relatively near future, it is asked:<strong>Will this outbreak claim more than 1000 lives before it is declared over by the WHO?</strong>\n\nNote that this question is asked in the inverse way as the previous one: will 1000 people die, rather than will less than 1000 people die.\n\nResolution is by credible media report, or by the Congolese Government: [Ministère de la Santé de la République Démocratique du Congo](https://us13.campaign-archive.com/home/?u=89e5755d2cca4840b1af93176&id=aedd23c530). Should resolution triggering information become available prior to question closure, the question shall retroactively close 24 hours prior to that information becoming available.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2573, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1552775929.487114, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1552775929.487114, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.37, 0.63 ], "means": [ 0.637869474723631 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.01946471143816275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05692018101548274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021936199508452464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03081720770343554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008568413763270113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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2565, "title": "Will the number of Yellow-Vests-affiliated protesters in France decline?", "created_at": "2019-01-14T16:38:35.986336Z", "open_time": "2019-01-18T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-01-18T15:11:42.201454Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-01-18T15:11:42.201454Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-04-01T21:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-04-01T21:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-04-01T21:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-01-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-01-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The [Yellow Vests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement#17_November:_'Act_I') ([Gilets Jaunes](https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mouvement_des_Gilets_jaunes_en_France)) are french protesters of the Macron government policies.\n\nThey notably organised a series of grassroots protests all over \nFrance, every weekend for the last 9 weeks. The first one, on Saturday November 2018, gathered [more than 285,000](https://www.francetvinfo.fr/live/message/5bf/059/0a5/ff4/e90/12a/7ac/c79.html) people (i.e. ~0.4% of the population). Participation reached a low point around Christmas (~35,000), but is picking up again (~84,000 on 2019-01-12).\n\nThe question is then: **will the number of Yellow-Vests-affiliated protesters decline?**\n\nResolves positively if _no_ Yellow-Vests-affiliated protest gathers more than 150,000 people on any single day before (but not including) April 1st 2019. It resolves negatively if _any_ such protest occurs. Resolution shall be by credible media source reporting Ministry of the Interior estimates for protesters all over France. The question resolves positively on April 1st 2019 or retroactively the day before any protest triggering negative resolution, whichever comes first.\n\nMeta :\n\n - resolution date is chosen ~20 weeks after the movement's inception, versus ~10 weeks as of question writing\n - the 150,000 number is chosen semi-arbitrarily around the pre-Christmas level\n - the slightly awkward resolution criterion is because I threw a coin for the positive-resolution direction after choosing the metric", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2565, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1548963383.654192, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.59 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1548963383.654192, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.59 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.41000000000000003, 0.59 ], "means": [ 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false, "description": "" }, { "id": 2561, "title": "Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?", "short_title": "Metaculus User in Space by 2050", "url_title": "Metaculus User in Space by 2050", "slug": "metaculus-user-in-space-by-2050", "author_id": 103304, "author_username": "isinlor", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-01-13T21:36:43.402336Z", "published_at": "2019-01-16T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T17:41:25.517439Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-01-16T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2019-01-16T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 164, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2561, "title": "Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?", "created_at": "2019-01-13T21:36:43.402336Z", "open_time": "2019-01-16T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-01-16T17:34:19.893000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-01-16T17:34:19.893000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Similar questions:\n\n- [When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/)\n- [When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/)", "resolution_criteria": "Short and fun question: Will a registered Metaculus user post a comment under this question from space before 2050? A photo would be nice too :) !\n\nFor this question to resolve positively the user must be at least 80km above the surface of the Earth at the time of posting the comment. Comments posted before launch or after landing will not count, sorry :) .", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2561, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761500419.1126, "end_time": 1769653815.699834, "forecaster_count": 149, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761500419.1126, "end_time": 1769653815.699834, "forecaster_count": 149, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.509988749883754 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.44717674280557984, 0.0025758965844464793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00873951654269803, 0.0, 0.6591992137098521, 0.0, 0.001430542742881062, 0.32643453407398193, 0.0, 5.7884212847847586e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04049585662196554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5030488715904315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05324043471794, 0.0, 1.0, 0.020243292946408115, 0.0452378255753672, 0.0, 0.02149456104736915, 1.4300496511047966, 0.0, 0.00034778888011780727, 0.15782581142591398, 0.00027285893560136804, 0.07437098311377988, 0.013134042678890246, 0.48918605809901694, 0.0, 2.055632140530972e-05, 0.5725463642367006, 0.0, 0.8171789270685244, 0.949706147650687, 0.0, 2.141306178800673, 0.0323354467351036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03464002276560982, 0.12429138456882732, 1.2299219814228448, 0.58552422252354, 0.0, 0.7971781784572423, 1.4247221595966009, 0.4829356211236169, 0.0115555559468049, 0.0, 0.5615942952641879, 0.06539170632401999, 0.787197980185163, 0.0007051118463795934, 0.4094882307050913, 0.02640863788916291, 0.39703945625470966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.42116954742818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05926572720757397, 0.3828950823361675, 0.0, 0.004408478622480413, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7827895303345143, 7.043612377001059e-05, 0.004093513287168225, 0.0, 0.0625008899165032, 0.6397602267505305, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015966159711102446, 0.0, 0.8131672255930104 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288152.116673, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 160, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288152.116673, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 160, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6693450310872242, 0.3306549689127758 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 21, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 343, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Similar questions:\n\n- [When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/)\n- [When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/)" } ] }
\n\nThe](http://here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)%5Cn%5CnThe){kind=link}