Metaculus Help: Spread the word
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Will the current Ebola outbreak be stopped before it claims 400 lives?
It was previously asked, whether the current Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo would be stopped before it killed 100 people. Sadly, that question resolved negatively and the death toll (as of the writing of this question) has reached 210.
It is unclear whether the outbreak will be contained in the near future or whether it will be able to spread.
In order to get a question that should resolve in the relatively near future, it is asked:Will this outbreak be declared over by the WHO before it claims 400 lives?
Resolution is by credible media report. Should resolution triggering information become available prior to question closure, the question shall retroactively close 24 hours prior to that information becoming available.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.