Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5800
{ "count": 6412, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5820", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5780", "results": [ { "id": 1598, "title": "Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?", "short_title": "Elon Musk Personally Goes to Mars", "url_title": "Elon Musk Personally Goes to Mars", "slug": "elon-musk-personally-goes-to-mars", "author_id": 103733, "author_username": "jzima", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-11-27T01:14:51.763442Z", "published_at": "2018-11-30T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T18:49:57.392674Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-11-30T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2095-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2095-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-11-30T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 442, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1598, "title": "Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?", "created_at": "2018-11-27T01:14:51.763442Z", "open_time": "2018-11-30T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-11-30T05:42:20.777745Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-11-30T05:42:20.777745Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2095-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2095-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2095-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). \n\nWhereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In<a href=' https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html'> an interview with Axios</a> Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It will resolve as **No** if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket.\n\nIf Musk has neither died nor personally gone to Mars before January 1, 2095, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1598, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762973386.784979, "end_time": 1783673910.799527, "forecaster_count": 439, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762973386.784979, "end_time": 1783673910.799527, "forecaster_count": 439, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.10998868898284427 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.82657261971389, 7.618314674943342, 3.1655698667093546, 1.9261662004103015, 2.052357263379406, 4.559158363354418, 0.4100727082154746, 2.244819492878668, 1.1064470174637766, 0.2851866969501365, 2.0200229980787188, 0.5009182512411792, 0.3417534058072411, 4.9826388607008565e-05, 0.6853584004513855, 1.733174509582256, 4.3297464566332945e-06, 0.3167343028787627, 0.13231153444086746, 0.004863764634572399, 1.3341913078852035, 0.039167782622386016, 0.07466326393960064, 0.00013656904543059718, 0.033781662664952736, 1.476576445039889, 0.0, 0.0013660044399661855, 0.06567300470489962, 0.0, 0.046982056596962286, 0.035408526442840586, 0.04939222564172682, 0.015615813129148112, 0.16736629175763396, 0.12100791476173903, 0.0023006213501152732, 0.02362458638846735, 2.370696320724487e-06, 0.021462642053887735, 0.07085575736591265, 0.08323049627617755, 0.006698934911300407, 5.702692961812601e-05, 0.0016275660961021336, 0.0014681361547257935, 0.0, 0.0, 2.082425195803798e-07, 0.0021986101559150215, 0.6846844029498479, 0.0015698579784715497, 0.014486287801313386, 0.0, 1.12087005131408e-08, 0.0014011002693111257, 0.001458828244288028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014090602730208437, 0.17571891291073582, 4.3420817725240455e-08, 0.0, 1.7348719702897996e-07, 1.838868451840132e-06, 0.0855553371227059, 0.013856583182743529, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4307974475845747, 7.015337294725619e-07, 2.22651515276775e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3490504941068798, 0.13465605150410576, 0.0, 0.0007431595825945388, 0.0, 0.006329893725567628, 0.008342567902448209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8872218779019375, 5.145631517086793e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003255747211659386, 0.00020297510096943807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011795271226121588 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287415.538854, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 431, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287415.538854, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 431, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9417124722859085, 0.05828752771409151 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 55, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1056, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). \n\nWhereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In<a href=' https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html'> an interview with Axios</a> Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%." }, { "id": 1585, "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", "short_title": "Nuclear GC to cause (near) extinction", "url_title": "Nuclear GC to cause (near) extinction", "slug": "nuclear-gc-to-cause-near-extinction", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-11-17T23:59:00.370223Z", "published_at": "2018-11-22T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T21:57:09.729752Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-11-22T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2101-05-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-11-22T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 196, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2932, "type": "question_series", "name": "Ragnarök Series", "slug": "ragnarok-series", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-09-19T12:47:21Z", "close_date": "2100-01-05T13:47:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-15T13:47:21.479124Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:55:08.533483Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2932, "type": "question_series", "name": "Ragnarök Series", "slug": "ragnarok-series", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-09-19T12:47:21Z", "close_date": "2100-01-05T13:47:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-15T13:47:21.479124Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:55:08.533483Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 1585, "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", "created_at": "2018-11-17T23:59:00.370223Z", "open_time": "2018-11-22T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-11-22T23:44:10.170000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-11-22T23:44:10.170000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2101-05-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series [here](https://possibleworldstree.com/).*\n\n\nA nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockNW2006JD008235.pdf) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere which would [according to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy. This would lower temperatures regionally and globally for several years, and open up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reduce global precipitation by about 10%, trigger crop failures, and result in widespread food shortages.\n\nAccording to [some models](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/ToonRobockTurcoPhysicsToday.pdf), the smoke would rapidly engulf the Earth and form a dense stratospheric smoke layer. The smoke from a war fought with strategic nuclear weapons would quickly prevent up to 70% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Northern Hemisphere and 35% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Southern Hemisphere. Such an enormous loss of warming sunlight would produce Ice Age weather conditions on Earth in a matter of weeks. For a period of 1-3 years following the war, temperatures would fall below freezing every day in the central agricultural zones of North America and Eurasia.\n\nThis could leave some survivors in parts of Australia and New Zealand, but they would be in a very precarious situation and the threat of extinction from other sources would be great. Whether a nuclear winter could cause extinction is currently unclear. Some [models consider total extinction very unlikely](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1775342), and suggest parts of the world would remain habitable.\n\nThese studies consider what is currently the worst-case nuclear exchange, namely, that between the US and Russia. However, It is possible that a future nuclear arms race someday leads to larger stockpiles or more dangerous nuclear weapons than existed at the height of the Cold War. In this case, chances of a nuclear extinction might be higher than they currently are.", "resolution_criteria": "In the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of nuclear weapons?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/). Now it is asked,\n\n**Given that nuclear catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?**\n\nThe question resolves ambiguous if a global nuclear catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. It resolves *positively* if such a catastrophe does occur, **and** the global population is less than 5% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. The question resolves negative if a global nuclear catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1585, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758438038.935945, "end_time": 1783987966.216, "forecaster_count": 195, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758438038.935945, "end_time": 1783987966.216, "forecaster_count": 195, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.12787456604492325 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 5.730863436125505, 0.4407035260237663, 1.316615892641762, 2.263431997935366, 5.205270510423377, 0.9748621808519626, 1.3310588489278334, 0.6787548485641807, 0.0, 0.6046160824150488, 0.025511909343076223, 0.3962003610786368, 0.5570212530443376, 0.0046919135341085974, 1.6493595644580106, 0.24940957700705152, 0.0, 0.0009158353013046218, 0.0, 1.6787946743724314, 0.0, 0.037359733769249816, 0.0049883869782846035, 0.0, 0.025095889018066385, 0.0016377931091839026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6364247970118107, 0.0, 0.0013390822129108794, 0.04502493897612185, 0.08056291060985245, 0.03250012681923328, 0.0005202943721180376, 0.001749427061806469, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029802922976647436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003776746249929933, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00557604432462038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012635990089212077, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3020705411351069, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08836100886372074, 0.06755505565763611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11367475651451708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8361251363501722 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287026.935156, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 191, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287026.935156, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 191, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9800298737924237, 0.019970126207576343 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 373, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series [here](https://possibleworldstree.com/).*\n\n\nA nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockNW2006JD008235.pdf) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere which would [according to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy. This would lower temperatures regionally and globally for several years, and open up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reduce global precipitation by about 10%, trigger crop failures, and result in widespread food shortages.\n\nAccording to [some models](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/ToonRobockTurcoPhysicsToday.pdf), the smoke would rapidly engulf the Earth and form a dense stratospheric smoke layer. The smoke from a war fought with strategic nuclear weapons would quickly prevent up to 70% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Northern Hemisphere and 35% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Southern Hemisphere. Such an enormous loss of warming sunlight would produce Ice Age weather conditions on Earth in a matter of weeks. For a period of 1-3 years following the war, temperatures would fall below freezing every day in the central agricultural zones of North America and Eurasia.\n\nThis could leave some survivors in parts of Australia and New Zealand, but they would be in a very precarious situation and the threat of extinction from other sources would be great. Whether a nuclear winter could cause extinction is currently unclear. Some [models consider total extinction very unlikely](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1775342), and suggest parts of the world would remain habitable.\n\nThese studies consider what is currently the worst-case nuclear exchange, namely, that between the US and Russia. However, It is possible that a future nuclear arms race someday leads to larger stockpiles or more dangerous nuclear weapons than existed at the height of the Cold War. In this case, chances of a nuclear extinction might be higher than they currently are." }, { "id": 2513, "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", "short_title": "AI catastrophe to cause (near) extinction", "url_title": "AI catastrophe to cause (near) extinction", "slug": "ai-catastrophe-to-cause-near-extinction", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-11-17T23:59:00.370223Z", "published_at": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:55:07.288155Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 310, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1313, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Progress Essay Contest", "slug": "ai-fortified-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/neural_net.png", "prize_pool": "6500.00", "start_date": "2022-02-08T13:02:52Z", "close_date": "2022-04-16T15:54:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the AI Progress Essay Contest! Metaculus aims to support accurate forecasting of and preparation for the impacts of transformative AI.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T01:32:31.710216Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2932, "type": "question_series", "name": "Ragnarök Series", "slug": "ragnarok-series", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-09-19T12:47:21Z", "close_date": "2100-01-05T13:47:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-15T13:47:21.479124Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:55:08.533483Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2932, "type": "question_series", "name": "Ragnarök Series", "slug": "ragnarok-series", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-09-19T12:47:21Z", "close_date": "2100-01-05T13:47:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-15T13:47:21.479124Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:55:08.533483Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "topic": [ { "id": 15854, "name": "Top Questions", "slug": "top-50", "emoji": "✨🔝", "type": "topic" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2513, "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", "created_at": "2018-11-17T23:59:00.370223Z", "open_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-01-14T12:17:10.006000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-01-14T12:17:10.006000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series [here](https://possibleworldstree.com/).*\n\n\nCurrently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.\n\nIn a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.\n\nIn a [2008 survey](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford, participants were asked to make their best guess at the chance that there will be disasters of different types before 2100. The median estimate of the chance of 1 billion deaths by 2100 by a superintelligent AI was 5%. Interestingly the median estimate of the chance of human extinction by a superintelligent AI was also 5%, suggesting that if an AI-failure-mode-induced-catastrophe does occur, it's likely be a terminal one for human civilisation.\n\nWhen considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)) \n\n> 1. The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n> 2. The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants.", "resolution_criteria": "In the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) Now it is asked,\n\n**Given that an artificial intelligence failure-mode catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?**\n\nThe question resolves *positive* if such a catastrophe does occur, **and** the global population is less than 5% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. It resolves *ambiguous* if an artificial intelligence global catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves *negative* if a an artificial intelligence failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2513, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763434494.487223, "end_time": 1789427470.242, "forecaster_count": 309, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763434494.487223, "end_time": 1789427470.242, "forecaster_count": 309, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.4015663350273235 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.2586371627504316, 0.08715887138753728, 0.6388027396093466, 0.09311869133598225, 0.0, 3.4109290210232817, 0.6832075100243888, 0.6882406924465783, 0.0, 0.0, 3.5120677254944406, 0.40451606372980464, 0.0, 0.23197804452567578, 0.04563779422330377, 0.2210302478120235, 0.05416809102091319, 0.0028124594747664954, 0.0, 0.00018812652216582696, 0.862354698140756, 0.24101446360166442, 0.147441039198318, 1.9016721274562387e-05, 0.30605502277542973, 0.22471319096396072, 0.4558733690430959, 0.0036241514959912645, 3.4456574453827327e-06, 0.0, 3.2000563110504525, 0.01291146921835234, 0.1126362687115529, 0.352232690197768, 0.004458821566368403, 0.6924129865337667, 0.0007980725466580213, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9121654311718502, 0.8185272138640879, 0.00019883987744068342, 0.04723799247209407, 1.8628348568256715e-05, 0.022497590167898453, 0.7293833419225656, 0.0, 0.0, 4.192373953161186e-06, 1.1518955256405596, 0.6124326542511932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06032085546470792, 2.3696277232201068e-05, 1.1989295082379763e-05, 0.0, 0.0956700851246142, 0.44939179311835314, 0.060587487502524184, 5.484782722350416e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.591488989428733e-05, 0.00020079538312861337, 0.010400232464234858, 0.0, 0.614701670661989, 7.064152513073534e-05, 0.05059632610625151, 9.789958392029354e-07, 0.21284814764739576, 1.2255226841735225, 3.1145796903968066e-06, 0.7520878385854426, 0.00752278931085298, 0.0003061109773319125, 0.7498394317441406, 0.0, 0.005856015116861911, 0.0, 0.0008340305956087824, 0.332127977806945, 0.8662797342055828, 0.6306177471452439, 0.019577987558264776, 0.052357661917518325, 0.05821311472240183, 0.0, 0.16263276740394866, 0.01396311005831526, 0.0041234632064449045, 0.2719556325200161, 0.0, 0.027811958952189523, 0.9473072545365918, 2.731880741515485 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286912.268453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 226, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286912.268453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 226, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.45875033090259787, 0.5412496690974021 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 737, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series [here](https://possibleworldstree.com/).*\n\n\nCurrently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.\n\nIn a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.\n\nIn a [2008 survey](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford, participants were asked to make their best guess at the chance that there will be disasters of different types before 2100. The median estimate of the chance of 1 billion deaths by 2100 by a superintelligent AI was 5%. Interestingly the median estimate of the chance of human extinction by a superintelligent AI was also 5%, suggesting that if an AI-failure-mode-induced-catastrophe does occur, it's likely be a terminal one for human civilisation.\n\nWhen considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)) \n\n> 1. The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n> 2. The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants." }, { "id": 2514, "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", "short_title": "Synth-bio GC to cause (near) extinction?", "url_title": "Synth-bio GC to cause (near) extinction?", "slug": "synth-bio-gc-to-cause-near-extinction", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-11-17T23:59:00.370223Z", "published_at": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T01:16:07.808447Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 161, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2932, "type": "question_series", "name": "Ragnarök Series", "slug": "ragnarok-series", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-09-19T12:47:21Z", "close_date": "2100-01-05T13:47:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-15T13:47:21.479124Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:55:08.533483Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2932, "type": "question_series", "name": "Ragnarök Series", "slug": "ragnarok-series", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-09-19T12:47:21Z", "close_date": "2100-01-05T13:47:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-15T13:47:21.479124Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:55:08.533483Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 2514, "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", "created_at": "2018-11-17T23:59:00.370223Z", "open_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-01-14T17:59:12.243000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-01-14T17:59:12.243000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series [here](https://possibleworldstree.com/).*\n\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/).\n\nNo single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).\n\n[An informal survey at the 2008 Oxford Global Catastrophic Risk Conference](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf\n) asked participants to estimate the chance that disasters of different types would occur before 2100. Participants had a median risk estimate of 0.05% that a natural pandemic would lead to human extinction by 2100, and a median risk estimate of 2% that an “engineered” pandemic would lead to extinction by 2100.\n\nMoreover, previous literature has found that casualty numbers from terrorism and warfare follow a power law distribution, including terrorism from WMDs. [Millett and Snyder-Beattie](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5576214/) have performed a naive power law extrapolation to estimate the chance of an existential biological disaster:\n\n> Past studies have estimated this ratio for terrorism using biological and chemical weapons to be about 0.5 for 1 order of magnitude, meaning that an attack that kills \\(10^x\\) people is about 3 times less likely (\\(10^{0.5}\\)) than an attack that kills \\(10x^{x-1}\\) people (a concrete example is that attacks with more than 1,000 casualties, such as the Aum Shinrikyo attacks, will be about 30 times less probable than an attack that kills a single individual). Extrapolating the power law out, we find that the probability that an attack kills more than 5 billion will be \\((5 billion)^{–0.5}\\) or 0.000014. Assuming 1 attack per year (extrapolated on the current rate of bio-attacks) and assuming that only 10% of such attacks that kill more than 5 billion eventually lead to extinction (due to the breakdown of society, or other knock-on effects), we get an annual existential risk of 0.0000014 (or \\(1.4 × 10^{-6}\\)).\n\n<small>\n\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n\n1. [If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n2. [If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n3. [If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n4. [If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n\n5. [If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\n\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n\n6. [By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n\n7. [Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n\n8. [Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n\n9. [Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n\n10. [Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n\n11. [Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\n\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n\n</small>", "resolution_criteria": "**Given that a biological global catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?**\n\nThe question resolves *positive* if such a global biological catastrophe does occur, **and** the global population is less than 5% of the pre-catastrophe population. The question resolves *ambiguous* if a global biological catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves *negative* if a global biological catastrophe failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) **but** the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%. \n\nA biological catastrophe is here defined as a catastrophe resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. Moreover, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2514, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760404557.590558, "end_time": 1802940880.584903, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760404557.590558, "end_time": 1802940880.584903, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.13341067397271641 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8171367214902963, 1.7255933938827739, 0.7592423632938529, 1.04989225647931, 1.7016881518095746, 1.8988571380971075, 2.110764497736666, 1.1415753961100363, 1.3248655822826234, 1.9859822129757143, 1.2189125960751115, 0.051529397903369197, 0.38430051832325457, 0.2684095780826285, 0.0, 1.6506459686079902, 0.9525668756144838, 4.7074980302278084e-05, 0.057686659636523085, 0.15894602518320936, 2.0971372877078966, 0.00016060913675222186, 0.0, 0.23284455314170174, 0.0, 0.2736756278269846, 0.0, 0.06324985707110807, 0.008235752535017807, 0.0, 0.0571128657486627, 0.0, 0.31223565535141085, 0.00023243974546861487, 0.0, 0.09887586822151155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006347553742845056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018291039353229524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22900956969075234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00555352884236747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002062514325037591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6962325861266341, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009560828710929873, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0773322200650898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2860171453113798 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287461.906914, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 145, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287461.906914, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 145, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9745459663499314, 0.02545403365006856 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 335, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series [here](https://possibleworldstree.com/).*\n\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/).\n\nNo single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).\n\n[An informal survey at the 2008 Oxford Global Catastrophic Risk Conference](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf\n) asked participants to estimate the chance that disasters of different types would occur before 2100. Participants had a median risk estimate of 0.05% that a natural pandemic would lead to human extinction by 2100, and a median risk estimate of 2% that an “engineered” pandemic would lead to extinction by 2100.\n\nMoreover, previous literature has found that casualty numbers from terrorism and warfare follow a power law distribution, including terrorism from WMDs. [Millett and Snyder-Beattie](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5576214/) have performed a naive power law extrapolation to estimate the chance of an existential biological disaster:\n\n> Past studies have estimated this ratio for terrorism using biological and chemical weapons to be about 0.5 for 1 order of magnitude, meaning that an attack that kills \\(10^x\\) people is about 3 times less likely (\\(10^{0.5}\\)) than an attack that kills \\(10x^{x-1}\\) people (a concrete example is that attacks with more than 1,000 casualties, such as the Aum Shinrikyo attacks, will be about 30 times less probable than an attack that kills a single individual). Extrapolating the power law out, we find that the probability that an attack kills more than 5 billion will be \\((5 billion)^{–0.5}\\) or 0.000014. Assuming 1 attack per year (extrapolated on the current rate of bio-attacks) and assuming that only 10% of such attacks that kill more than 5 billion eventually lead to extinction (due to the breakdown of society, or other knock-on effects), we get an annual existential risk of 0.0000014 (or \\(1.4 × 10^{-6}\\)).\n\n<small>\n\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n\n1. [If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n2. [If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n3. [If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n4. [If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n\n5. [If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\n\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n\n6. [By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n\n7. [Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n\n8. [Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n\n9. [Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n\n10. [Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n\n11. [Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\n\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n\n</small>" }, { "id": 2638, "title": "When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "when-the-first-company-reaches-a-2-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-11-17T14:51:44.149696Z", "published_at": "2019-03-03T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.901106Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-03-03T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 53, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-08-13T18:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-16T17:17:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-16T17:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-08-13T18:11:00Z", "open_time": "2019-03-03T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2638, "title": "When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?", "created_at": "2018-11-17T14:51:44.149696Z", "open_time": "2019-03-03T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-03-03T14:28:39.517052Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-03-03T14:28:39.517052Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-16T17:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-08-13T18:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-08-13T18:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-16T17:17:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-08-13T18:11:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. However, one year before it first hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~$0.8 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question negative).\n\nAmazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap). And one year before it hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~0.46 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question positive).\n\n\n**Will the first publicly traded company to have a $2 trillion market cap be worth double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $2 trillion?**\n\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $2 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $1 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to Yahoo Finance's data, or any other reputable financial data service.\n\n*Methodology clarification (03/03/19): Current quarter's prices are to be adjusted to mean 2018 prices using FRED's [GDP implicit price deflator](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USAGDPDEFQISMEI). If the company is not traded in the US, prices given in the currency in which the stocks are traded are to be converted using the arithmetic mean of FRED's [real broad effective exchange rate](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/tags/series?t=currency%3Bexchange%20rate%3Breal&ob=pv&od=desc) of the current quarter.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2638, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1598627241.130233, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "centers": [ 0.92 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1598627241.130233, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "centers": [ 0.92 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.07999999999999996, 0.92 ], "means": [ 0.8474855240874506 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2713420958397517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037798961682738792, 0.0, 0.0045822019105017245, 0.0, 0.010969196538715179, 0.0, 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"resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "UK is currently in a state of political turmoil after cold reception of [Theresa's May government draft Brexit Withdrawal Agreement](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_withdrawal_agreement_0.pdf).\n\nAccording to Donald Tusk:\n> If nothing extraordinary happens, we will hold a European council meeting to finalise and formalise the Brexit agreement. It will take place on Sunday 25 November at 9.30am\n\nThe UK Parliament is supposed to vote on the draft soon after in early December.\n\nTheresa's May government is a [minority government](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minority_government) dependent on support of [Democratic Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Unionist_Party).\n\nThis question asks:\n\nWill the first draft of Brexit withdrawal agreement be rejected?\nThe question will resolve positively if either European Council or UK Parliament rejects the current agreement. The question will resolve ambiguously if there will be no vote on the current draft by EC or UK Parliament before the end of this year. \n\nPositive resolution follows from any substantial changes in the accepted agreement that include, but are not restricted to, 1) the rules relating to the Irish border and customs union, 2) Financial markets access, 3) UK's payment of the 'divorce bill' (the details of which are taken to be as outlined in [this article](https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/15/uk/brexit-deal-key-policy-takeaways-intl-gbr/index.html)).\n\nRelated questions:\n\n- [Will the UK actually leave the EU?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1301/will-the-uk-actually-leave-the-eu/)\n- [Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/436/brexit-negotiations-completed-by-march-2019/)\n- [Will there be a \"no-deal\" Brexit?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1336/will-there-be-a-no-deal-brexit/)\n- [Will Theresa May be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1581/will-teresa-may-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-in-2019/)\n- [Will UK have general elections before 29 March 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1582/will-uk-have-general-elections-before-29-march-2019/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1583, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1543100251.526665, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1543100251.526665, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7118551939542128 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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government](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minority_government) dependent on support of [Democratic Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Unionist_Party).\n\nCurrently the crucial question for Brexit process is [whether the first draft of Brexit withdrawal agreement will be rejected](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1583/will-the-first-draft-of-brexit-withdrawal-agreement-be-rejected/), and what happens after that.\n\nOne possibility is that UK will hold general elections.\n\nTherefore, this question asks:\n\nWill UK have general elections before 29 March 2019?\n\n\nRelated questions:\n\n- [Will the UK actually leave the EU?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1301/will-the-uk-actually-leave-the-eu/)\n- [Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/436/brexit-negotiations-completed-by-march-2019/)\n- [Will there be a \"no-deal\" Brexit?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1336/will-there-be-a-no-deal-brexit/)\n- [Will Theresa May be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1581/will-teresa-may-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-in-2019/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1582, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1544899288.845533, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1544899288.845533, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.250537380003998 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5463266271516379, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3286647279806401, 0.0, 0.3815029447976801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29627086558387494, 0.7190903954441952, 0.0, 0.08590922441201745, 0.0, 0.24094508556937305, 0.25894236356644956, 0.0, 0.07719388008439709, 0.47427559963987037, 1.688570167557943, 0.3542463301646753, 0.0, 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of the United Kingdom in 2019?", "created_at": "2018-11-17T01:09:56.694608Z", "open_time": "2018-11-19T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-11-19T20:05:17.909733Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-11-19T20:05:17.909733Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T23:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T23:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-12-31T23:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-11-30T15:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-11-30T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "UK is currently in a state of political turmoil after cold reception of [Theresa's May government draft Brexit Withdrawal Agreement](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_withdrawal_agreement_0.pdf).\n\nAccording to [the Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/1922-committee-theresa-may-no-confidence-vote-jacob-rees-mogg-letter-graham-brady-conservative-a8635071.html):\n> The 1922 Committee, currently chaired by Sir Graham Brady, has the power to trigger a [no confidence vote in the party leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motions_of_no_confidence_in_the_United_Kingdom) in the event that it receives such letters from 15 per cent of MPs (meaning 48 at present). Once the threshold is passed Sir Graham is obliged to begin the vote as soon as possible.\n\n> If the prime minister survives the vote and sees off a leadership challenge, she would be rewarded with a year’s immunity from a fresh coup attempt.\n\n> But if she were to lose, she would be obliged to step down and allow for the election of a replacement, once again plunging Westminster into chaos. Downing Street has said Ms May would fight any no confidence motion.\n\nA no confidence vote was last successfully used in 1979 and before that in 1924.\n\nThe question asks will Theresa May be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at 1 January 2019?\n\nRelated questions:\n\n- [Will the UK actually leave the EU?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1301/will-the-uk-actually-leave-the-eu/)\n- [Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/436/brexit-negotiations-completed-by-march-2019/)\n- [Will there be a \"no-deal\" Brexit?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1336/will-there-be-a-no-deal-brexit/)\n- [Will the first draft of Brexit withdrawal agreement be rejected?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1583/will-the-first-draft-of-brexit-withdrawal-agreement-be-rejected/)\n- [Will UK have general elections before 29 March 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1582/will-uk-have-general-elections-before-29-march-2019/)", "fine_print": "", 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"created_at": "2018-11-16T21:51:42.261408Z", "open_time": "2018-11-19T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-11-20T00:09:36.532496Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-11-20T00:09:36.532496Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-01-16T12:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-01-16T12:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-01-16T12:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "It was <a href='https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1329/will-the-latest-ebola-outbreak-be-stopped-before-it-claims-a-hundred-lives/'>previously asked</a>, whether the <a href='https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Kivu_Ebola_outbreak'> current Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo</a> would be stopped before it killed 100 people. Sadly, that question resolved negatively and the death toll (as of the writing of this question) has reached 210.\n\nIt is unclear whether the outbreak will be contained in the near future or whether it will be able to spread.\n \nIn order to get a question that should resolve in the relatively near future, it is asked:<strong>Will this outbreak be declared over by the WHO before it claims 400 lives?</strong>\n\nResolution is by credible media report. Should resolution triggering information become available prior to question closure, the question shall retroactively close 24 hours prior to that information becoming available.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1580, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1546273933.874537, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1546273933.874537, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.1450596015505537 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6478346461308762, 0.7521059431719636, 0.3488997690348788, 0.10992481778615364, 3.6573900919538653, 0.3743328230494786, 2.0921407908084437, 0.010905509822374478, 0.0, 2.3210238818270463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8363847044308375, 0.0, 0.690733040621381, 0.1409113370461162, 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"chinese-gdp-greater-than-us-by-2041", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-11-16T17:22:49.454501Z", "published_at": "2018-11-19T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T01:32:07.905880Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-11-19T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 50, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2042-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2043-01-02T00:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-11-19T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 415, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": 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"type": "topic" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1579, "title": "Will China's GDP exceed the United States' GDP in any year before 2041?", "created_at": "2018-11-16T17:22:49.454501Z", "open_time": "2018-11-19T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-11-19T20:57:19.488314Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-11-19T20:57:19.488314Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2043-01-02T00:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2042-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2042-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China is today one of the major economies in the world. It ranks second in terms of gross domestic product and it contributes about 36 percent to world growth. Due to the size of its economy, Chinese business cycle fluctuations potentially affect economies worldwide. The Chinese economy further has substantial effects on global poverty, global trade, climate change, and much else.\n\nFrom the late 1970s, China saw an annual average growth rate of 9.9 per cent for more than three decades. This followed the introduction of reform and opening-up policies in 1978. In recent years, however, growth has slowed, to only 6.9 per cent in 2015.\nIn Angus Maddison's book, [The Outlook for China and the World Economy](http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Maddison07.pdf), he forecasts that China's GDP will surpass that of the United States in the first half of this century, and likely as soon as 2030.\n\nChina has seen an average of 9.8% GDP growth since the 1970s, far higher than the 2.8% average observed in the United States in the same period. Despite the recent slowdown in Chinese growth, its rates of Total Factor Productivity has been growing on average at twice the average rate in the United States ([around 3% in China](http://www.urbanlab.org/articles/China/reform%20era/Brandt%20Rawski%20eds%202008%20-%20China's%20great%20economic%20transformation.pdf#page=853) vs [around 1.5% in the United States](https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/indicators-data/total-factor-productivity-tfp/)) Similarly, [Chinese capital formation rates](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html) have tended to be almost twice [capital formation rates in the United States](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if China's nominal GDP for a given year exceeds US nominal GDP (for that year) before 2041. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china).", "fine_print": "For the purpose of this question, nominal GDP will be compared after converting China's nominal GDP to USD (using exchanges rates that are commonly used by the World Bank for this purpose).\n\nPreviously, the resolution criteria was confusing, so this has been changed. It is reproduced here for reference:\n\n>This question resolves positive if China's GDP exceeds that of the United States in any 1 year before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china) that are adjusted for historical domestic prices.", "post_id": 1579, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762392717.498298, "end_time": 1768320074.318785, "forecaster_count": 376, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762392717.498298, "end_time": 1768320074.318785, "forecaster_count": 376, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.5880051296726428 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.23435796076998705, 0.02304699059686681, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018107347098118723, 0.010131855155241324, 0.6945981241986221, 0.0, 0.44195650414494414, 0.009306578663869913, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19902385341497475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.305004109784949, 0.043168568895973286, 0.0, 0.7917770977639016, 0.0, 0.0005928159121754454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1228435498140565, 0.0, 0.2780514380666633, 0.5053861462825504, 0.0, 1.2638384345180291, 0.5330945969425706, 0.0, 0.07513598965343367, 0.0, 0.7327279106609669, 0.1542309751248067, 0.49826870442649823, 0.27047432293925516, 1.0, 1.1314951632421992, 0.07667990586769731, 0.0008046179161243353, 0.058555862115685, 8.955241241481717e-08, 3.45019756739519, 1.1147042203103463, 0.519068258777391, 0.7626697763534029, 0.407596558596851, 0.6729219298281937, 0.19918256379386978, 0.07224697543009423, 0.0, 1.6517068668521362, 1.1824252093852494, 0.5622373213487912, 0.008557088621492025, 0.23102548208546728, 0.23803952062614556, 0.6208469554326563, 1.0846595923161306, 0.0297540018850238, 0.026480374657219325, 0.0936843987006801, 0.6730196690145189, 0.04895099657193724, 0.0032071436213236375, 0.006048998410793278, 0.12640665908410245, 2.029271862688255, 0.05029063833634147, 0.40478944475563905, 1.088054066572844e-05, 0.03708088858504854, 2.614392172032903, 0.019622192736927904, 0.4251719500611948, 0.011007990467954504, 0.014287040463337843, 0.6617328850644906, 0.008030482654038527, 0.1951778573049394, 0.4874261032256543, 0.010638825877857033, 0.1346973276765799, 0.5948646616041636, 0.0, 0.00894489278457268, 0.05611085860268588, 0.01952941242851898, 0.0, 0.11829983179049074, 0.00013603056593428607, 4.140072377518689 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287036.560535, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 397, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287036.560535, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 397, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5490068046270553, 0.45099319537294463 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 58, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1064, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China is today one of the major economies in the world. It ranks second in terms of gross domestic product and it contributes about 36 percent to world growth. Due to the size of its economy, Chinese business cycle fluctuations potentially affect economies worldwide. The Chinese economy further has substantial effects on global poverty, global trade, climate change, and much else.\n\nFrom the late 1970s, China saw an annual average growth rate of 9.9 per cent for more than three decades. This followed the introduction of reform and opening-up policies in 1978. In recent years, however, growth has slowed, to only 6.9 per cent in 2015.\nIn Angus Maddison's book, [The Outlook for China and the World Economy](http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Maddison07.pdf), he forecasts that China's GDP will surpass that of the United States in the first half of this century, and likely as soon as 2030.\n\nChina has seen an average of 9.8% GDP growth since the 1970s, far higher than the 2.8% average observed in the United States in the same period. Despite the recent slowdown in Chinese growth, its rates of Total Factor Productivity has been growing on average at twice the average rate in the United States ([around 3% in China](http://www.urbanlab.org/articles/China/reform%20era/Brandt%20Rawski%20eds%202008%20-%20China's%20great%20economic%20transformation.pdf#page=853) vs [around 1.5% in the United States](https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/indicators-data/total-factor-productivity-tfp/)) Similarly, [Chinese capital formation rates](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html) have tended to be almost twice [capital formation rates in the United States](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html)." }, { "id": 1576, "title": "Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?", "short_title": "Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030", "url_title": "Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030", "slug": "fewer-than-375m-in-extreme-poverty-by-2030", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-11-15T17:32:27.525384Z", "published_at": "2018-11-17T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T21:02:47.646114Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-11-17T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-11-17T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 144, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1576, "title": "Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?", "created_at": "2018-11-15T17:32:27.525384Z", "open_time": "2018-11-17T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-11-19T01:19:05.954001Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-11-19T01:19:05.954001Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In September 2015, 193 world leaders adopted the Sustainable\nDevelopment Goals (SDGs) and called for a “data revolution” to enhance accountability in measuring the progress towards their fulfilment. The SDGs have [17 goals](https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/) of which the first is “To end poverty in all its forms everywhere by 2030”.\n\nExtreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a\nday, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices. Currently, [around 630M people](https://worldpoverty.io/) (roughly 8%) live in extreme poverty worldwide. According to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.\n\nA [2018 study by Cuaresma et al.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-018-0083-y.pdf) on the poverty paths of developing countries projects worldwide poverty rates ranging from 4.5% (around 375 million persons) to almost 6% (over 500 million persons) in 2030.\n\n**Will we see fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than 375M in extreme poverty in any year up to (and including) 2030. For this question we will refer to the data by the World Bank, and if this is unavailable, some other database listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1576, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763291307.401482, "end_time": 1765823202.718087, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763291307.401482, "end_time": 1765823202.718087, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.1828706786020931 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.9213778645858788, 0.0, 1.1283522980972411, 0.00011172110363428878, 2.6160826128756534, 0.0, 0.3054421354372261, 0.08343129230483246, 0.35200151471536073, 2.1374698566103376, 0.026815793912544603, 0.8033068073725071, 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Shorten as Prime Minister in 2019?", "created_at": "2018-11-15T06:13:40.422006Z", "open_time": "2018-12-04T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-06T01:25:14.874647Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-06T01:25:14.874647Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-05-31T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-05-17T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-05-17T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-05-31T14:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-05-17T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Australia is expected to hold a federal election in 2019. The centre-left Australian Labor Party (ALP) have been in opposition since 2013, with the centre-right Liberal-National Party (LNP, Coalition) in power or having a minority government since then.\n\nBill Shorten is the current leader of the ALP. The ALP has been performing well in opinion polls such as Newspoll, but Shorten has not (https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/12/newspoll-gives-labor-a-commanding-10-point-lead-over-the-coalition).\n\nLadbrokes betting website has these odds:https://m.ladbrokes.com.au/sports/politics/23450981-australian-politics-federal/23450981-australian-politics-federal/\n\nSportsbet website has these odds: https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/australian-federal-politics/Next-Election-Sworn-in-Government-2767301\n\nThis question will resolve positively if Bill Shorten becomes Prime Minister following a federal election with the ALP holding a majority of seats in the House of Representatives OR forming a minority government. \n\nThis question will resolve negatively if the ALP form government following a federal election without Bill Shorten as their leader, even if he becomes their leader later. It will also resolve negatively if the ALP do not form government in 2019.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1570, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1559276458.685816, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1559276458.685816, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.08118699717620961 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 7.897919238745096, 0.7905904584693795, 1.0142298642350214, 0.0, 0.24847383207628093, 0.0, 0.8190790998590399, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4813206094097308, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3743651858727827, 0.0, 0.9361882784028203, 0.40350388084437705, 0.0, 0.04816139989060515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Despite [Kepler’s recent](http://www.nasa.gov/kepler) end of mission [the search](http://sci.esa.int/gaia/) [for exoplanets](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/cubesat/missions/asteria.php) [continues](https://tess.gsfc.nasa.gov). While their orbits and properties vary, ranging from double our Moon’s mass to thirty times Jupiter’s, their atmospheres’ compositions are harder to detect.\n\nAs of this writing this means we have mostly data from exoplanets we detected by transition and occlusion methods, but also other kind of exoplanets. However we only found *what* is in their air, not *how much* or its ratio in the atmosphere. What we did detect of their atmospheres was often hydrogen, sodium, water vapour, carbon monoxide and dioxide, methane, and even oxygen, depending on the respective exoplanet.\n\nSadly, the presence of O2 isn’t the smoking gun for extraterrestrial life some media like to report it for. There are atmospheric and geological processes that produce detectable—[or even massive](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/ast.2014.1231)—amounts of oxygen, keeping the mere presence of O2 from being a robust biomarker. On the flip side, too much oxygen is also possible, and may prevent or hamper the development of life. \n\nSo far we lack a method that would determine the composition percentages of exoplanet atmospheres, but that doesn’t mean someone clever won’t come up with a way. And once we do, finding an atmosphere with a sizeable fraction of O2 might very well be a good indicator for extraterrestrial life.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any exoplanet with >5% O2 atmosphere is found before January 1, 2030", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1568, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763528053.597266, "end_time": 1764176890.008002, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763528053.597266, "end_time": 1764176890.008002, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5764117304845231 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.03564310727744694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038503157754529835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05392541496491342, 0.00028439359257530537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8018133090773757, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0666390929145122, 0.0, 0.005712198004389287, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1997737562374093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9505450412014476, 0.9398282809114753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37538668734720954, 0.0, 0.0, 2.259537025244763, 0.00646051809270714, 0.839673412762307, 0.46712403154789617, 0.10678389500756706, 1.443442479498927, 0.023253336412006914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3135602050387529, 2.8509501736864573, 0.017071553201596524, 0.005030841343722017, 0.03905926168706965, 0.27495618647991393, 0.5270175078939937, 0.16503585811746413, 0.110469160676601, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6482362828360033, 0.0795076679953931, 0.0, 0.14169919136317252, 0.0, 0.7592988989024985, 0.0, 0.0922898227035347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2717281359285503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02155546269398288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5340780608678722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4037586481546429 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288579.342789, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288579.342789, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5460628575314183, 0.45393714246858174 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 29, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 302, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Despite [Kepler’s recent](http://www.nasa.gov/kepler) end of mission [the search](http://sci.esa.int/gaia/) [for exoplanets](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/cubesat/missions/asteria.php) [continues](https://tess.gsfc.nasa.gov). While their orbits and properties vary, ranging from double our Moon’s mass to thirty times Jupiter’s, their atmospheres’ compositions are harder to detect.\n\nAs of this writing this means we have mostly data from exoplanets we detected by transition and occlusion methods, but also other kind of exoplanets. However we only found *what* is in their air, not *how much* or its ratio in the atmosphere. What we did detect of their atmospheres was often hydrogen, sodium, water vapour, carbon monoxide and dioxide, methane, and even oxygen, depending on the respective exoplanet.\n\nSadly, the presence of O2 isn’t the smoking gun for extraterrestrial life some media like to report it for. There are atmospheric and geological processes that produce detectable—[or even massive](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/ast.2014.1231)—amounts of oxygen, keeping the mere presence of O2 from being a robust biomarker. On the flip side, too much oxygen is also possible, and may prevent or hamper the development of life. \n\nSo far we lack a method that would determine the composition percentages of exoplanet atmospheres, but that doesn’t mean someone clever won’t come up with a way. And once we do, finding an atmosphere with a sizeable fraction of O2 might very well be a good indicator for extraterrestrial life." }, { "id": 1558, "title": "Will the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide before 2035?", "short_title": "Cavendish Bananas Collapse by 2035", "url_title": "Cavendish Bananas Collapse by 2035", "slug": "cavendish-bananas-collapse-by-2035", "author_id": 106635, "author_username": "Pshyeah", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-11-10T20:42:44.604486Z", "published_at": "2018-11-13T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T16:00:14.645644Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-11-13T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-11-13T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 105, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1558, "title": "Will the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide before 2035?", "created_at": "2018-11-10T20:42:44.604486Z", "open_time": "2018-11-13T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-11-13T21:16:26.025000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-11-13T21:16:26.025000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Bananas are a well-liked import fruit all over the world, and the Cavendish cultivar has been crushing that market for sixty years. But its rise is literally founded upon the compost heap of the Gros Michel, another cultivar. The so-called “Big Mike” variety had been the leading export towards Europe and North America, but the Panama disease, a fungus belonging to the *Fusarium* clade, killed that. [Luckily the Cavendish, grown in the same soil as the wilting Gros Michel, replaced it as *the* banana most of the western world connected with bananas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana).\n\nHowever, it appears [another *Fusarium* rears its spores](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/cavendish-banana-extinction-gene-editing). Cavendish, with their genetic homogenity (they’re all clones) and sterile nature, aren’t resistant to it, and the fungus is ravaging more and more plantations. \n\nThere are efforts under way to deal with *Fusarium*, but with various societies’ doubts and misgivings about GMOs, the cure may be viewed as a curse instead.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Cavendish banana accounts for less than 50% of worldwide annual banana exports in any year from 2018 to 2034 (inclusive).", "fine_print": "The question will resolve according to reports from credible sources of the Cavendish share of exports, and Metaculus will rely on such reports or to statements from relevant experts or authorities when determining whether a given banana cultivar counts as part of the [Cavendish banana group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_banana_cultivars#AAA_Group:~:text=plants%20and%20cultivars-,Cavendish%20Subgroup,-%27Dwarf%20Cavendish%27), including genetically modified cultivars.", "post_id": 1558, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763308803.653497, "end_time": 1765108885.091192, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763308803.653497, "end_time": 1765108885.091192, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.4582282422773447 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003539921380459027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7688808666212926, 0.07633811309223827, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011707819368802578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5047393210853273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8108520837902014, 0.6907120441102532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.951726619424662, 0.4440181252868051, 0.03914327981320501, 0.926830509074676, 0.004003664807775071, 0.18151865870128317, 0.012879116712703483, 0.016683035080382866, 0.0, 0.2326318799626671, 1.0849309115631067, 0.0, 0.08687308362479618, 0.0, 0.09408648451053538, 0.5867143632968327, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7603528832836877, 1.0136739077549493, 2.906515256420258, 1.0, 0.002282663908945223, 0.8611985580480521, 0.0, 0.037881083178741976, 0.21879668565961966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02405118580334803, 0.5050077699395187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12321600498569375, 0.049271907876978605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21983207245365713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26420634159292394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010969478514417234, 0.3740384336233754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004790762626597634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9009921384041186 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289165.367092, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289165.367092, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.815143269486177, 0.184856730513823 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 23, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 232, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bananas are a well-liked import fruit all over the world, and the Cavendish cultivar has been crushing that market for sixty years. But its rise is literally founded upon the compost heap of the Gros Michel, another cultivar. The so-called “Big Mike” variety had been the leading export towards Europe and North America, but the Panama disease, a fungus belonging to the *Fusarium* clade, killed that. [Luckily the Cavendish, grown in the same soil as the wilting Gros Michel, replaced it as *the* banana most of the western world connected with bananas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana).\n\nHowever, it appears [another *Fusarium* rears its spores](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/cavendish-banana-extinction-gene-editing). Cavendish, with their genetic homogenity (they’re all clones) and sterile nature, aren’t resistant to it, and the fungus is ravaging more and more plantations. \n\nThere are efforts under way to deal with *Fusarium*, but with various societies’ doubts and misgivings about GMOs, the cure may be viewed as a curse instead." }, { "id": 1556, "title": "Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-extraordinary-or-premature-federal-elections-held-in-germany-before-their-next-election-cycle", "author_id": 106635, "author_username": "Pshyeah", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-11-09T11:10:25.508172Z", "published_at": "2018-11-12T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.729477Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-11-12T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-03-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-03-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-09-16T09:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-09-16T09:35:00Z", "open_time": "2018-11-12T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 58, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1556, "title": "Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?", "created_at": "2018-11-09T11:10:25.508172Z", "open_time": "2018-11-12T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-11-13T21:18:15.510440Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-11-13T21:18:15.510440Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-09-16T09:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-09-16T09:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-09-16T09:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-03-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-03-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Following the Hessian State Election in 2018, and the huge losses of the federal coalition parties SPD and CDU represented therein, [Chancellor Angela Merkel announced she would not seek re-election as German Chancellor in 2021, nor for head of party later this year](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46016377).\n\nThe latter is particularly interesting since Merkel herself always insisted on the Chancellor also holding the office of respective party chairman, a practise she criticised her predecessor, Gerhard Schröder, for abandoning in light of rising criticism regarding his reform plans.\n\nHer current prospective successors as chairmen of the CDU are:\n\n* [Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer](https://www.dw.com/en/merkel-ally-annegret-kramp-karrenbauer-urges-new-era-in-german-politics/a-46196445), the unofficial favourite,\n* [Friedrich Merz](https://www.dw.com/en/friedrich-merz-makes-pitch-to-lead-cdu-after-angela-merkel/a-46108295), who had left politics a decade ago, and\n* [Jens Spahn](https://www.jens-spahn.de/neustart_fuer_die_cdu), the current Minister of Health.\n\nThere are a few possibilities open right now; Merkel may choose to leave office prematurely for a successor to gain valuable experience as a chancellor. But it is doubtful if the junior partner in the coalition, the SPD, would support such a move, preferring new elections instead. Similarly the new chairman may obstruct Merkel in parliament to raise their profile for the next federal elections, possibly to the extent of triggering premature federal elections.\n\nThus we ask: **Will there be Federal Elections held in Germany prior to the earliest date slated for the next elections?**\n\n*Resolves positive if elections are held before 29 August 2021; resolves negative if elections are held between 29 August and 24 October 2021 (inclusive); resolves ambiguous for everything else.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1556, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1554019339.626493, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1554019339.626493, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 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On September 8, 2018 they launched their new system. Here’s how it works:\n>CREATE A COASTLINE\n\n>The system consists of a 600-meter-long floater that sits at the surface of the water and a tapered 3-meter-deep skirt attached below. The floater provides buoyancy to the system and prevents plastic from flowing over it, while the skirt stops debris from escaping underneath.\n\n>TAKE ADVANTAGE OF NATURAL OCEANIC FORCES\n\n>Both the plastic and system are being carried by the current. However, wind and waves propel only the system, as the floater sits just above the water surface, while the plastic is primarily just beneath it. The system thus moves faster than the plastic, allowing the plastic to be captured.\n\n>CONCENTRATE THE PLASTIC AND TAKE IT OUT\n\n>Natural forces move the system faster than the plastic which allows the plastic to be captured in the center of the system.\n[The Ocean Cleanup Technology](https://www.theoceancleanup.com/technology/)\n\nSlat's system is currently en route to the [Great Pacific Garbage Patch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Pacific_garbage_patch) where it will face the most rigorous test thus far. The next milestone for The Ocean Cleanup is to have 60 systems up and running by 2021. Positive resolution is if they *fail* to meet their goal.\n\n***Resolution: Question resolves as affirmative if a credible news agency reports that The Ocean Cleanup failed to have 60 systems up and running by January 1, 2021, or if no information indicating they reached their goal arrives by 1/1/2021.***", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1555, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1575167571.076605, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1575167571.076605, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.27, 0.73 ], "means": [ 0.7326378298697376 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16826274979803604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1554, "title": "Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?", "created_at": "2018-11-08T17:19:11.020518Z", "open_time": "2018-11-18T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-11-20T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-11-20T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T22:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-09T00:09:28.253810Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-12-31T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "How do you quantify the scientific productivity of a nation? One way is to detail the number of science Nobel prizes that have been awarded to that country. According to a May 2018 Royal Society Open Science article, '[An empirical study of the per capita yield of science Nobel prizes: is the US era coming to an end?](http://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/5/5/180167)' we now have enough data on the distribution of Nobel prizes by country to provide a reliable analysis of the long term trends. Claudius Gros, of the Institute for Theoretical Physics in Goethe University Frankfurt, examined Nobel prizes awarded for chemistry, physics, physiology or medicine indexed by their country of origin. \n\n> The cumulative number of physics, chemistry and medicine Nobel prizes per country. Prizes are attributed to the respective country according to the nationality of the recipients at the time of the announcement, with prizes obtained by more than one recipient accordingly divided.\n\nWhile the US has an impressive number of science Nobel Prizes, Gros notes that “the US population increased from 76 to 327 million during 1901–2017”. When you consider the number of Nobelists per population size, then the UK has the more impressive record (followed by Germany, then the US and France). ([figure](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/cms/attachment/717446eb-6cc3-42ac-9441-e29ed52321e0/rsos180167f02.jpg))\n\nGros then uses this model to predict the future productivity rate of these countries. ([figure](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/cms/attachment/eacb4040-57ac-4ef6-857f-b95fbc846afc/rsos180167f03.jpg))\n\nThis leads Gros to make the claim, “Our model predicts that the US per capita productivity rate will have fallen below that of Germany by 2025 and below that of France by 2028”. Will this claim turn out to be true? For our purposes, we will focus on the first half of this claim, on whether the US per capita science Nobel Prize productivity rate will fall below that of Germany by 2025 as the model predicts. \n\nQuestion resolves as positive if the per-capita number of science Nobel Prizes awarded to Germans between 2020 and 2025, inclusive, exceeds that of the US.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1554, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1577767434.67672, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1577767434.67672, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.36630139559458713 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.384967995967945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8574818331037634, 0.0, 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"", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "As a follow up on a [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/508/will-donald-trump-have-a-50-approval-rating-at-some-point-during-his-presidency/) that resolved firmly negative, let's extend our timeline to the next year.\n\n[Trumps's approval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) has hovered in the low-40s since the start of 2018, a slight recovery from last year's high-30s. The economy has thus far remained steadfast, and a bombshell from the Mueller investigation seems unlikely at the moment. Presidential approval ratings tend to [revert to to the mean](https://news.gallup.com/poll/116677/presidential-approval-ratings-gallup-historical-statistics-trends.aspx) over time, although whether it can do so from 42% in a year is another question entirely.\n\nAnd again on a morbid note, a major terrorist attack or other calamity could temporarily spike Trump's popularity in a Rally Around the Flag effect.\n\n**By December 31, 2019, will there be a day where Trump's approval rating is 50% or above on [538's aggregate](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) \"all polls\" approval tracker?**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1550, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1548950653.161047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1548950653.161047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 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"nr_forecasters": 144, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": 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"binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Without additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions beyond those in place today, global emissions growth is expected to persist, driven by growth in global population and economic activities. Global mean surface temperature increases in 2100 in baseline scenarios—those without additional mitigation—[range from 3.7°C to 4.8°C above the average for 1850–1900 for a median climate response](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf). \n\nGiven these estimates of the baseline scenarios of unmitigated emissions, [studies exploring particular effort-sharing mitigation frameworks]( https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) have estimated substantial global financial flows associated with mitigation in scenarios to limit warming during the 21st century to less than 2°C.\nBut [there is also a non-negligible chance]( https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases much higher than the median estimated outcome. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a “fat” right tail, meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases.\n\nIn particular, [it has been argued that]( https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) there is a decent chance that the unmitigated emissions might result in a >6.4ºC change in global mean surface temperature. Then, even with the systems to reduce temperatures by 2.8ºC (as might be required in baseline scenarios to achieve the 2ºC target), mean global temperature might be still be at least as high as 3.6ºC, despite substantial mitigation efforts.\n\nThe estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely highly nonlinear: marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). [According to the IPCC's 2014 report,]( https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) \n>The risks associated with temperatures at or above 4°C include severe and widespread impacts on unique and threatened systems, substantial species extinction, large risks to global and regional food security, consequential constraints on common human activities, increased likelihood of triggering tipping points (critical thresholds) and limited potential for adaptation in some cases.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2100, there is a 5-year period in which the average global temperature in each year is at least 3.6˚C greater than the average global temperature relative to the period 1861–1880, according to [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/). Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the critical value to look for with this specific NASA dataset will be 3.4˚C.\n\nIf NASA does not provide this data for a complete period up to 2100 (or a potential earlier resolution date), Metaculus may select an alternative credible source of data at their discretion", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1539, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763799719.795266, "end_time": 1795335719.705, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763799719.795266, "end_time": 1795335719.705, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.32455814933859206 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2135335570330959, 0.017178573282488403, 0.0004848352575332589, 0.05048153416234771, 1.2062405761818134, 0.4566648254815185, 0.3985625071629861, 0.0, 0.0006811238577399847, 2.341980463413086, 0.05645326862575361, 0.5747936670316058, 0.0, 0.11912907114009136, 2.0397815675021436, 0.9156803867416528, 0.18706426466557327, 0.9054255242938575, 0.0, 1.7277343828196647, 0.003888286267192854, 1.1367875818089206, 0.5519002672888779, 0.1444777375712246, 0.20139684313101303, 0.8863694988050307, 0.0, 0.11315662339485048, 0.0, 1.3022326816503882, 0.04124140405857572, 0.0, 0.38856560077500213, 0.009643818996794732, 0.06776111241195011, 0.0, 0.522374807503785, 0.0066132009301480416, 0.1725347311736366, 0.3299383497094372, 0.028220172380636326, 0.0042061066322698045, 0.040191970215443025, 0.0, 0.01240528128850807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.034034132337005196, 0.3051773756671907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029964503285543637, 0.8349379226549696, 0.001258053411250551, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006367742658441968, 0.6512778357598388, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012387996325486188, 0.01830951858643546, 0.15345589426250317, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024997253624574355, 0.0001368095263969389, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006099057432257295, 0.0023734986418368956, 0.12862374145914107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02351060501478775, 0.0, 0.045077245252799644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7770955361210626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022257632713062553, 0.1387825234714067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8935558370414134 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287672.624853, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287672.624853, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9103754576778585, 0.08962454232214145 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 342, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Without additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions beyond those in place today, global emissions growth is expected to persist, driven by growth in global population and economic activities. Global mean surface temperature increases in 2100 in baseline scenarios—those without additional mitigation—[range from 3.7°C to 4.8°C above the average for 1850–1900 for a median climate response](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf). \n\nGiven these estimates of the baseline scenarios of unmitigated emissions, [studies exploring particular effort-sharing mitigation frameworks]( https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) have estimated substantial global financial flows associated with mitigation in scenarios to limit warming during the 21st century to less than 2°C.\nBut [there is also a non-negligible chance]( https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases much higher than the median estimated outcome. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a “fat” right tail, meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases.\n\nIn particular, [it has been argued that]( https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) there is a decent chance that the unmitigated emissions might result in a >6.4ºC change in global mean surface temperature. Then, even with the systems to reduce temperatures by 2.8ºC (as might be required in baseline scenarios to achieve the 2ºC target), mean global temperature might be still be at least as high as 3.6ºC, despite substantial mitigation efforts.\n\nThe estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely highly nonlinear: marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). [According to the IPCC's 2014 report,]( https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) \n>The risks associated with temperatures at or above 4°C include severe and widespread impacts on unique and threatened systems, substantial species extinction, large risks to global and regional food security, consequential constraints on common human activities, increased likelihood of triggering tipping points (critical thresholds) and limited potential for adaptation in some cases." }, { "id": 1538, "title": "Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?", "short_title": "Metaculus Predicts AI Risk Significant 2040", "url_title": "Metaculus Predicts AI Risk Significant 2040", "slug": "metaculus-predicts-ai-risk-significant-2040", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-10-30T22:16:26.258800Z", "published_at": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T15:24:09.658286Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-07-12T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 147, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1538, "title": "Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?", "created_at": "2018-10-30T22:16:26.258800Z", "open_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-11-06T22:48:13.402746Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-11-06T22:48:13.402746Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-07-12T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-01-01T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, [and possibly much sooner](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/). \n\nAs predictions to [a previous question suggest](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/), artificial intelligence might pose a global catastrophic risk (defined there as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years). When considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely, according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/): \n\n> 1. The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n\n> 2. The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem.\n\nIt is [thought by some](https://futureoflife.org/ai-open-letter/) that reducing the second of these two risks will require progress in technical methods of developing scalable control methods that could ensure that a AI will be safe and will behave as its programmers intend even if its intellectual capabilities are increased to arbitrary levels. Until recently, this problem was almost entirely neglected; but in the last couple of years, technical research agendas have been developed, and there are now several research groups pursuing work in this area. Total investment in long-term AI safety, however, remains orders of magnitude less than investment in increasing AI capability. Additionally, reducing the first of the listed risks might require improvements in our ability to control, govern and coordinate on the usage of such systems, so to reduce potential security threats from [malicious uses of AI technologies](https://maliciousaireport.com/). \n\nBut how certain are we that artificial intelligence continue to be regarded to constitute a large chunk of global catastrophic risk, at least through 2040? [A previous question asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/): If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some Artificial Intelligence system(s)?\n\n**Will the probability (of both the Metaculus and community predictions) [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) (given that a global catastrophe does occur) remain above 5% in each 6-month period before 2040?**\n\n\nThis question resolves positively if both the Metaculus and community predictions) of [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) *fail* to fall below 5% for any 6-month period before 2040, as will be confirmed by one of the Metaculus admins.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1538, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763133839.283053, "end_time": 1771808240.200915, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763133839.283053, "end_time": 1771808240.200915, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7593918876641009 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.43864267895537945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017120581355777056, 0.3465062881701624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4913133892656293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6566371915210333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.526475812797094e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008701167110674621, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9508570817149805, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007715919361052651, 0.0003095827948788816, 0.0, 0.009431368072545939, 0.0021532682531544473, 0.0, 0.00021193681464310558, 0.6259995631503564, 0.012196578030134967, 0.44851510406858286, 0.013322666165943388, 0.010212357276173556, 0.0, 0.22049787873436544, 0.44511450061243746, 0.005237778268384932, 0.0, 0.018042593710543276, 0.001788932117281614, 0.9601408695979627, 0.24397591245792039, 0.9395329726741588, 0.028431918152454893, 0.0, 1.03954404569759, 0.018779558189700216, 0.11052219356108912, 0.07411863812031651, 0.06174923390179019, 2.5115942507438183, 0.25427978550160435, 1.0490839697741867, 0.001992637073746351, 0.40304296305703713, 1.6722408999851526, 1.0140400194063666, 0.042309424250676284, 0.023114765047599694, 0.6886250422859015, 1.2014399203641366, 0.008018935598224195, 0.0, 0.021544293446415303, 2.2464342944497724 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286778.864794, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286778.864794, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2694157479084248, 0.7305842520915752 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 363, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }
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