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Will the latest Ebola outbreak be stopped before it claims a hundred lives?

It was previously asked whether the Ebola outbreak that began in early May 2018 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo would be contained to under 50 cases. That question resolved negative, but the outbreak has now ended.

Regrettably, another Ebola outbreak began on August 1st 2018 in the Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. As of the writing of this question the outbreak has already claimed 33 lives. People have noted that this outbreak will be harder to fight, as it is taking place in a war zone.

It is asked:Will this outbreak be declared over by the WHO before it claims 100 lives?

Resolution is by credible media report. Should resolution triggering information become available prior to question closure, the question shall retroactively close 24 hours prior to that information becoming available.


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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

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Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.