Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=600
{ "count": 5536, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=620", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=580", "results": [ { "id": 35574, "title": "¿Cerrará la acción de Nvidia el 2025 más alta de lo que empezó?", "short_title": "¿Subirá la acción de Nvidia en 2025?", "url_title": "¿Subirá la acción de Nvidia en 2025?", "slug": "subira-la-accion-de-nvidia-en-2025", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-26T16:00:45.814735Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:38:40Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-25T09:36:39.252422Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:38:40Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 351, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 233, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35024, "title": "¿Cerrará la acción de Nvidia el 2025 más alta de lo que empezó?", "created_at": "2025-02-26T16:00:45.815152Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nvidia es una empresa tecnológica líder especializada en procesadores gráficos y de IA. La acción de la compañía ha demostrado un fuerte crecimiento en los últimos años, impulsado por la creciente demanda de tecnologías de IA y unidades de procesamiento gráfico (GPUs). En 2024, el precio de la acción de Nvidia aumentó aproximadamente un 170%, reflejando su sólido rendimiento.", "resolution_criteria": "La pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si el precio de la acción de Nvidia al cierre del último día hábil de 2025 (en el mercado principal donde cotiza, NASDAQ) supera los 134,29\\$, según la columna Close/Last de [<u>su página en NASDAQ</u>](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/nvda/historical). Se resolverá como **No** si es igual o inferior.", "fine_print": "* Si NASDAQ no publica estos datos antes del 7 de enero de 2026, se utilizará Yahoo Finance o una fuente alternativa creíble.\n* El precio se ajustará en caso de splits de acciones o splits inversos.", "post_id": 35574, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753357394.44878, "end_time": 1753568386.702385, "forecaster_count": 207, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753357394.44878, "end_time": 1753568386.702385, "forecaster_count": 207, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.6842811746212296 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.12191702370212439, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0049378417238270305, 0.0, 0.0, 4.170416821569011e-06, 0.0, 0.05456828047943868, 0.00014778822706706127, 0.003651817892825281, 0.7754645655936991, 0.009650937432074385, 0.6551396167174747, 0.0, 1.3333686441324526e-05, 0.0003407469860394805, 0.004833862546681361, 0.035105191335372654, 0.02366055270884667, 0.01716112184009516, 0.002078015354135952, 0.0, 0.19566129935158044, 0.011824043936934448, 0.00017636904292759426, 0.04445197966638987, 0.020312502898838403, 0.17803058247499715, 0.0034176087866887887, 0.015998490027664545, 0.9349844751663055, 0.026858714302144628, 1.0226157412393821, 0.0, 0.030844943276655136, 0.013732504959787378, 0.04191346856501311, 1.0451826657183974, 0.0, 0.046245733360066044, 0.00024734361366637566, 0.002898706069121246, 0.002427497701647464, 0.0013833656239928393, 0.0008345932533442361, 0.03228852355339307, 4.9409956033422215e-05, 1.1157247849317609, 0.4673728544602377, 6.146277751066631e-05, 0.0, 0.03957197932000654, 0.30677459863852713, 0.5437809559770246, 0.0, 0.31447690299485803, 0.0, 0.46037078777775337, 0.0, 0.0013050317910800473, 0.4745210599650654, 2.0320922610025067, 1.1193442032004537, 0.0, 2.1048065007114913, 0.7034026986852991, 0.0, 1.1961399341053678, 2.3961343274965202e-05, 1.0493049682406785, 0.0, 0.4239828441890476, 1.9253014914924655, 0.0, 0.8396141875721927, 2.3215371951884323e-06, 0.20572387433138478, 1.0081643501141764, 0.29152363919640434, 0.6192745851288146, 0.32498382980201573, 0.0, 1.9202457949721397, 0.0, 0.9942051114635928, 0.0, 4.412007664451375e-05, 0.00011211426900471286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4145771905740658 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 814, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Nvidia es una empresa tecnológica líder especializada en procesadores gráficos y de IA. La acción de la compañía ha demostrado un fuerte crecimiento en los últimos años, impulsado por la creciente demanda de tecnologías de IA y unidades de procesamiento gráfico (GPUs). En 2024, el precio de la acción de Nvidia aumentó aproximadamente un 170%, reflejando su sólido rendimiento." }, { "id": 35573, "title": "¿Cerrará Bitcoin el 2025 más alto de lo que empezó?", "short_title": "¿Subirá Bitcoin en 2025?", "url_title": "¿Subirá Bitcoin en 2025?", "slug": "subira-bitcoin-en-2025", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-26T15:59:05.704728Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:38:32Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-25T17:14:08.350737Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:38:32Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 284, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 233, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35023, "title": "¿Cerrará Bitcoin el 2025 más alto de lo que empezó?", "created_at": "2025-02-26T15:59:05.705111Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Bitcoin es la criptomoneda más conocida con la mayor capitalización de mercado. Su precio es altamente volátil y puede fluctuar rápidamente debido a factores regulatorios, de demanda y especulativos. En 2024, bitcoin subió aproximadamente un 125%. En 2025, el presidente Donald Trump ha adoptado [<u>una postura pro-cripto</u>](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/trump-signs-order-create-cryptocurrency-working-group-2025-01-23/), emitiendo una orden ejecutiva para promover los activos digitales y explorar nuevas regulaciones. La administración de Trump tiene como objetivo posicionar a EE.UU. como líder en tecnología financiera digital, lo que podría impulsar las criptomonedas.", "resolution_criteria": "La pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si el precio de Bitcoin al final del 31 de diciembre de 2025 (o el último día de registro disponible) supera los 93.429,20\\$, según el valor de Cierre de su [<u>página en CoinMarketCap</u>](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/). Se resolverá como **No** si es igual o inferior.", "fine_print": "* Si CoinMarketCap no publica estos datos antes del 7 de enero de 2026, esta pregunta se resolverá según los [<u>datos de CoinGecko</u>](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data). Si CoinGecko tampoco publica estos datos, se resolverá en base a una fuente alternativa creíble.", "post_id": 35573, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753463637.584917, "end_time": 1753542815.846819, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.621 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753463637.584917, "end_time": 1753542815.846819, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.621 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.379, 0.621 ], "means": [ 0.6191945521154082 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.1606326420093116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0168839097558695, 0.09221155470925896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006108682560389599, 0.0, 0.015702986709347146, 0.2057031025953372, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0256111381924176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21661960295439894, 0.0022050244962851144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6963368961792026, 0.0, 0.588652115441525, 0.0016138371106303707, 0.0106262103146748, 0.012595563912333244, 0.0, 0.007309913228452477, 0.014954773706656406, 0.0, 0.12747681546481032, 0.0, 0.5555585033965583, 0.0, 0.0014523731568833438, 0.0, 0.02719830936370545, 0.3280267093220453, 0.0, 0.00015447436193902192, 0.0, 0.002909403059054138, 1.506880251698846, 0.42802567408153125, 0.0003150766863134106, 7.53835593295572e-05, 0.0, 1.4631962748149836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3784338768035294, 0.06591646113982266, 1.5665083721333268, 1.4565620862116786, 0.0, 0.4922498310969613, 0.03561292917135521, 0.03975688837979246, 0.08149820583757862, 0.04684602063164588, 1.0056841832582366, 0.0010425629558802045, 0.0, 0.9144399892686675, 0.0, 0.8907159343405863, 0.0, 0.11736170020009162, 0.3087891679895093, 0.0, 1.518867977367828, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41787001605352747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2525579987746878, 0.0, 1.0073507158264077, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45627223026164093, 0.5262563034192477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8580421571230475 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 566, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bitcoin es la criptomoneda más conocida con la mayor capitalización de mercado. Su precio es altamente volátil y puede fluctuar rápidamente debido a factores regulatorios, de demanda y especulativos. En 2024, bitcoin subió aproximadamente un 125%. En 2025, el presidente Donald Trump ha adoptado [<u>una postura pro-cripto</u>](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/trump-signs-order-create-cryptocurrency-working-group-2025-01-23/), emitiendo una orden ejecutiva para promover los activos digitales y explorar nuevas regulaciones. La administración de Trump tiene como objetivo posicionar a EE.UU. como líder en tecnología financiera digital, lo que podría impulsar las criptomonedas." }, { "id": 35572, "title": "¿Cerrará el IBEX 35 el 2025 más alto de lo que empezó?", "short_title": "¿Subirá el Ibex en 2025?", "url_title": "¿Subirá el Ibex en 2025?", "slug": "subira-el-ibex-en-2025", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-26T15:55:47.928366Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:38:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-25T09:36:30.953236Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:38:22Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 301, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 233, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35022, "title": "¿Cerrará el IBEX 35 el 2025 más alto de lo que empezó?", "created_at": "2025-02-26T15:55:47.928780Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "El Ibex 35 es el principal índice bursátil de la Bolsa de Madrid. Sirve como un barómetro clave de la economía española, reflejando las condiciones económicas nacionales e internacionales. La composición del índice puede explorarse en detalle [<u>en Wikipedia</u>](https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBEX_35)<u>.</u> \nDespués de liderar el crecimiento de los mercados bursátiles de la UE en 2023 con un aumento del 23%, el IBEX 35 se ha mantenido cerca de la cima de la tabla en 2024, subiendo un 14,78%. Fue el [<u>segundo índice bursátil con mejor rendimiento entre los principales mercados europeos</u>](https://www.bolsasymercados.es/docs/infmercado/2024/ing/Market-Report-BME-2024.pdf).", "resolution_criteria": "La pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si el valor oficial de cierre del Ibex 35 en el último día hábil de 2025 (normalmente el 31 de diciembre o la sesión anterior si cae en festivo) supera los 11.595,00, según la columna Close de [<u>su página en Yahoo Finance</u>](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIBEX/history/). Se resolverá como **No** si el valor es igual o inferior a 11.595,00€.", "fine_print": "	•\tSi Yahoo Finance deja de informar estos datos, se puede utilizar una fuente alternativa creíble para resolver esta pregunta.", "post_id": 35572, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753448503.087709, "end_time": 1753529993.491667, "forecaster_count": 132, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753448503.087709, "end_time": 1753529993.491667, "forecaster_count": 132, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8222895224007 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.010280093838077108, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05575433989433482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.034559013208797965, 2.7837534304304083e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04808361738415774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.318209642494191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025251351064951744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6705477364078785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002449430530375752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007126753249711776, 0.0013738396328811036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03678641020664265, 0.0, 0.00795577842133545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15530648083417073, 0.011230462878198023, 0.0, 0.00032717227925163487, 0.0008005381655414761, 1.131175092818895, 0.0, 0.3433456302157314, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5273038969332621, 0.0016780786857043893, 0.0, 0.0004318346030668858, 0.0015198778744991938, 0.8184816183327511, 0.04959605826675678, 0.4925652365773694, 0.06257888200243465, 0.0, 1.7328386527538089, 0.03052756316698955, 0.0849938117738748, 0.0, 1.0268957750080974, 3.312875659094608, 0.5571938559029864, 1.0996840001345938, 0.1973047216911859, 2.349269398017769, 1.9072543523455066, 0.3164536896795703, 1.412129473498839, 0.5345420917369886, 9.581825713945354e-05, 0.6447327689884316, 0.0, 0.6131624971655124, 0.0, 0.8536031241789885 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 21, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 541, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "El Ibex 35 es el principal índice bursátil de la Bolsa de Madrid. Sirve como un barómetro clave de la economía española, reflejando las condiciones económicas nacionales e internacionales. La composición del índice puede explorarse en detalle [<u>en Wikipedia</u>](https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBEX_35)<u>.</u> \nDespués de liderar el crecimiento de los mercados bursátiles de la UE en 2023 con un aumento del 23%, el IBEX 35 se ha mantenido cerca de la cima de la tabla en 2024, subiendo un 14,78%. Fue el [<u>segundo índice bursátil con mejor rendimiento entre los principales mercados europeos</u>](https://www.bolsasymercados.es/docs/infmercado/2024/ing/Market-Report-BME-2024.pdf)." }, { "id": 35571, "title": "¿Estará Inditex entre las 10 mayores empresas de la UE por capitalización bursátil a finales de 2025?", "short_title": "¿Inditex Top 10 en UE (2025)?", "url_title": "¿Inditex Top 10 en UE (2025)?", "slug": "inditex-top-10-en-ue-2025", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-26T15:53:37.729817Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:38:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-25T09:34:11.431055Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:38:08Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 262, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 233, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35021, "title": "¿Estará Inditex entre las 10 mayores empresas de la UE por capitalización bursátil a finales de 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-26T15:53:37.730235Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Inditex, la multinacional española conocida por ser propietaria de marcas como Zara, es la [<u>mayor empresa de España por capitalización bursátil</u>](https://companiesmarketcap.com/spain/largest-companies-in-spain-by-market-cap/) y un actor importante en los mercados internacionales. A febrero de 2025, Inditex ocupa el puesto 11 entre las mayores empresas de Europa por capitalización bursátil, siguiendo de cerca a Deutsche Telekom y Siemens. Con una capitalización de mercado de aproximadamente 175.000 millones de dólares, Inditex necesitaría superar a Deutsche Telekom, actualmente valorada en unos 179.680 millones de dólares, para entrar en el top 10.", "resolution_criteria": "La pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si, a 31 de diciembre de 2025 (o la fecha de negociación anterior), Inditex se sitúa entre las 10 mayores empresas por capitalización bursátil en la Unión Europea (UE). Se resolverá como **No** si se sitúa por debajo de la 10ª posición o no está listada en absoluto.", "fine_print": "* Se utilizará [<u>CompaniesMarketCap</u>](https://companiesmarketcap.com/european-union/largest-companies-in-the-eu-by-market-cap/) como referencia, o una fuente fiable equivalente.\n* Si no se dispone de datos específicos para el 31 de diciembre de 2025, se utilizará el último cierre del año.", "post_id": 35571, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753359199.343141, "end_time": 1753576238.832738, "forecaster_count": 148, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753359199.343141, "end_time": 1753576238.832738, "forecaster_count": 148, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.34485273673675043 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.4830789802452595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24778460304366645, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16514968606871416, 1.1521188283471229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2819278853495524, 0.0, 0.7473789149268295, 0.005314470848292115, 0.0, 0.9127476192398437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2733293101211842, 0.15115215575416344, 0.9237367181573468, 1.4398243458926614, 0.0, 3.7634995482471885, 0.20545673215509003, 0.2463627274265185, 0.09445680460307662, 0.4659062666554056, 0.9686512572106041, 1.4153833376048161e-05, 0.25852098607765817, 0.13310280285954024, 0.0, 1.2909478193813864, 0.021863934931097662, 0.014684522578604548, 0.0057485380302654656, 0.0, 1.170037616786896, 0.03298080161411055, 0.000250377265801166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02834797177902203, 0.05345197904255169, 0.6874881079736628, 0.017571330465225344, 0.0, 0.006130633140952651, 0.5545001743267883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.66322600634279, 0.0, 0.0014904595092425786, 0.02376894725452835, 0.5266563421209521, 0.9703697933707707, 0.0024724236580862683, 0.00010458346883053686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4332167369144783, 7.338626614942615e-05, 0.07938408952467735, 0.0019315252996501865, 0.0009402425934204333, 0.010566571779490884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3117589267229185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005002875567110885 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 458, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Inditex, la multinacional española conocida por ser propietaria de marcas como Zara, es la [<u>mayor empresa de España por capitalización bursátil</u>](https://companiesmarketcap.com/spain/largest-companies-in-spain-by-market-cap/) y un actor importante en los mercados internacionales. A febrero de 2025, Inditex ocupa el puesto 11 entre las mayores empresas de Europa por capitalización bursátil, siguiendo de cerca a Deutsche Telekom y Siemens. Con una capitalización de mercado de aproximadamente 175.000 millones de dólares, Inditex necesitaría superar a Deutsche Telekom, actualmente valorada en unos 179.680 millones de dólares, para entrar en el top 10." }, { "id": 35570, "title": "¿Subirán los precios de la vivienda en la ciudad de Madrid más de un 18% en 2025?", "short_title": "¿Vivienda Madrid >18%?", "url_title": "¿Vivienda Madrid >18%?", "slug": "vivienda-madrid-18", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-26T15:51:55.314009Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:37:59Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-25T18:22:05.901271Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:37:59Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 278, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 233, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35020, "title": "¿Subirán los precios de la vivienda en la ciudad de Madrid más de un 18% en 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-26T15:51:55.314368Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "En 2024, los precios de la vivienda en la ciudad de Madrid subieron un 20%, y se espera que el mercado inmobiliario de Madrid continúe su trayectoria ascendente en 2025. Según informa [<u>Caixabank Research</u>](https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/spanish-real-estate-market-2024-2025-expansive-mode), el estado actual del mercado inmobiliario español se caracteriza, en términos generales, por la fortaleza de la demanda y la escasez de oferta. [<u>Pronostican</u>](https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/new-forecasts-spanish-real-estate-sector-expansionary-cycle-takes) un aumento del 6%-7% para los precios de la vivienda en España.", "resolution_criteria": "La pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si, según los datos de precios de venta publicados en el [<u>portal Idealista</u>](https://www.idealista.com/sala-de-prensa/informes-precio-vivienda/venta/madrid-comunidad/madrid-provincia/madrid/), el precio medio de la vivienda en la **ciudad de Madrid** por metro cuadrado sube más de un 18% desde diciembre de 2024 hasta diciembre de 2025. Se resolverá como **No** si el aumento es del 18% o menos, o si hay una disminución de los precios.", "fine_print": "* En el momento de redactar esta pregunta, los precios de diciembre de 2024 son 4.952 €/m² según el gráfico y la tabla \"Histórico de variaciones de precios de venta en Madrid\" de la fuente de resolución. Sin embargo, el aumento se calculará en base a los precios de diciembre de 2024 que se muestren cuando se publiquen los datos de diciembre de 2025.\n* Se compararán cifras nominales, sin descontar el efecto de la inflación.\n\n	•\tSi Idealista no ha publicado datos para diciembre de 2025 antes del 7 de enero, esta pregunta se resolverá según el aumento de noviembre de 2024 a noviembre de 2025. Si esto no está disponible, esta pregunta será **anulada**.", "post_id": 35570, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753499134.538268, "end_time": 1753622643.668642, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753499134.538268, "end_time": 1753622643.668642, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.32800846555303426 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3879065756944403, 0.0, 0.39444170962328534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6816826320776439, 0.0, 0.20613181368785077, 0.721803879612223, 0.010109135876761816, 0.22218011842875174, 0.9276934526323775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4681194093076504, 0.11847248887964451, 0.31564933417547725, 0.27076673656016403, 0.19964811689435757, 0.011902111623428814, 0.09377098162780811, 1.1183915316344637, 1.3212890543844247, 0.827794974721009, 2.7787801052896635, 0.508099364037612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13100079706690063, 0.9103867552973441, 0.007858760696402532, 0.7265204299304684, 0.37466666666590154, 0.0005449586750005913, 0.03347459912769655, 0.342343718279405, 0.14095982406008295, 0.0, 0.44922367632454296, 0.0, 0.03835464010273274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03286580209440166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9530854571524716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04682653984130887, 0.7891714012620212, 0.006777185990696364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08796053765710685, 0.0, 0.0016053113319600574, 0.3173950574885405, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09921381733987823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07318092321969893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6828718186443462, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.068763771344373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3041466564029139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6542549547232943 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 460, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "En 2024, los precios de la vivienda en la ciudad de Madrid subieron un 20%, y se espera que el mercado inmobiliario de Madrid continúe su trayectoria ascendente en 2025. Según informa [<u>Caixabank Research</u>](https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/spanish-real-estate-market-2024-2025-expansive-mode), el estado actual del mercado inmobiliario español se caracteriza, en términos generales, por la fortaleza de la demanda y la escasez de oferta. [<u>Pronostican</u>](https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/new-forecasts-spanish-real-estate-sector-expansionary-cycle-takes) un aumento del 6%-7% para los precios de la vivienda en España." }, { "id": 35569, "title": "¿Crecerá la economía de España más que la de la Eurozona entre el Q3 2024 y el Q3 2025?", "short_title": "¿Crecimiento España vs. Eurozona?", "url_title": "¿Crecimiento España vs. Eurozona?", "slug": "crecimiento-espana-vs-eurozona", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-26T15:16:13.177754Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:37:46Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-25T09:34:15.342088Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:37:46Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 369, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 233, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35019, "title": "¿Crecerá la economía de España más que la de la Eurozona entre el Q3 2024 y el Q3 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-26T15:16:13.178176Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "España y la Eurozona publican sus cifras de PIB trimestralmente a través de <u>Eurostat</u>. El crecimiento relativo de la economía española frente a la media de la Eurozona es un indicador de la competitividad y resiliencia de ambas regiones. Entre 2023 y 2024 (Q3), España creció un 3,5% frente al 0,9% de la Eurozona ([<u>Eurostat</u>](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-06122024-ap#fragment-15944082-grio-inline-nav-8)).", "resolution_criteria": "La pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si, según [<u>datos oficiales de Eurostat</u>](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators), el crecimiento del PIB real de España (variación porcentual interanual desde el Q3 2024 hasta el Q3 2025) supera el crecimiento agregado de la Eurozona en el mismo período. Se resolverá como **No** si el crecimiento de la Eurozona es igual o mayor.", "fine_print": "	•\tSi los datos para el Q3 2025 no están disponibles antes del 7 de enero, la pregunta será **anulada**.\n\n	•\tSi Eurostat no publica datos interanuales, la resolución se calculará en base a datos trimestrales.", "post_id": 35569, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753470662.699152, "end_time": 1753579218.07558, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753470662.699152, "end_time": 1753579218.07558, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9574607756718305 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.007640119099098946, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01082526138799208, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.893796184688173e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01950492748404346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34725765232899347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4815686996351763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006811238577399847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3108202486069689, 0.0015197988629243285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11912907114009136, 0.4698880446909533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003803791319254623, 0.0, 1.4829216810177794, 0.274903035196283, 0.013322348376419284, 0.23283700706247784, 0.0, 1.794151727367482, 0.7423079336056804, 0.7044842454518941, 3.307882045302284, 11.930157455858426 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 28, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 633, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "España y la Eurozona publican sus cifras de PIB trimestralmente a través de <u>Eurostat</u>. El crecimiento relativo de la economía española frente a la media de la Eurozona es un indicador de la competitividad y resiliencia de ambas regiones. Entre 2023 y 2024 (Q3), España creció un 3,5% frente al 0,9% de la Eurozona ([<u>Eurostat</u>](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-06122024-ap#fragment-15944082-grio-inline-nav-8))." }, { "id": 35567, "title": "¿Se venderá el videojuego \"Grand Theft Auto VI\" en Europa en 2025?", "short_title": "¿GTA VI a la venta en Europa en 2025?", "url_title": "¿GTA VI a la venta en Europa en 2025?", "slug": "gta-vi-a-la-venta-en-europa-en-2025", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-26T15:14:00.420271Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:37:37Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-25T15:42:10.890021Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:37:37Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 321, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 233, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35018, "title": "¿Se venderá el videojuego \"Grand Theft Auto VI\" en Europa en 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-26T15:14:00.420646Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "\"Grand Theft Auto VI\" es uno de los videojuegos más esperados de los últimos años, con un amplio interés y [<u>especulación sobre su fecha de lanzamiento</u>](https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2025/02/the-gta-6-2025-release-window-may-have-just-gotten-smaller). Rockstar Games históricamente ha logrado lanzamientos globales para la serie GTA, aunque las fechas de lanzamiento y la disponibilidad regional están sujetas a cambios. Europa representa un mercado significativo para los videojuegos.\n\nA febrero de 2025, Rockstar Games ha anunciado oficialmente que \"Grand Theft Auto VI\" está programado para su lanzamiento en el tercer o cuarto trimestre de 2025, [<u>específicamente en la temporada de otoño</u>](https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2025/02/the-gta-6-2025-release-window-may-have-just-gotten-smaller). El juego estará disponible en las plataformas PlayStation 5 y Xbox Series X|S. Si bien el anuncio confirma un lanzamiento en 2025, no especifica la disponibilidad regional. Además, los retrasos son una posibilidad.", "resolution_criteria": "Esta pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si, dentro de 2025, \"Grand Theft Auto VI\" está disponible para la venta en Europa a través de canales de distribución estándar y autorizados. Si el juego no se lanza en Europa en 2025, la pregunta se resolverá como **No**.", "fine_print": "* Las reservas o filtraciones no oficiales no califican a menos que estén corroboradas por un anuncio autorizado.", "post_id": 35567, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753372653.593745, "end_time": 1753694939.300607, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.003 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753372653.593745, "end_time": 1753694939.300607, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.06975311748891497 ], "histogram": [ [ 18.761164567073948, 0.3922224686791097, 0.7358419909542828, 0.6683357598721381, 0.0, 0.035582486393137394, 0.0, 0.027064829107114496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7403229651456797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40461458692222135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002924010445042972, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03700518794988502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34063027813322355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8189484591653238, 1.3738524686593568e-05, 0.003409065805187293, 0.0, 0.018106934095260794, 0.028065793846447626, 3.868608937826673e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004846927288182437, 0.012957414185933876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013893044489744367, 2.467992956359265e-05, 0.04227767053007778, 0.0002062514325037591, 0.015218533146151188, 0.0, 0.0006031360346703764, 0.000342970520815265, 0.0106432470920234, 0.0019367869805229708, 0.5013237964165891, 0.003081760748937541, 0.007873736987268079, 0.011626816246106873, 0.004326302502631791, 0.007637527532483593, 0.0, 0.01608329716577802, 0.000495709636511211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055289094819212015 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 567, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "\"Grand Theft Auto VI\" es uno de los videojuegos más esperados de los últimos años, con un amplio interés y [<u>especulación sobre su fecha de lanzamiento</u>](https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2025/02/the-gta-6-2025-release-window-may-have-just-gotten-smaller). Rockstar Games históricamente ha logrado lanzamientos globales para la serie GTA, aunque las fechas de lanzamiento y la disponibilidad regional están sujetas a cambios. Europa representa un mercado significativo para los videojuegos.\n\nA febrero de 2025, Rockstar Games ha anunciado oficialmente que \"Grand Theft Auto VI\" está programado para su lanzamiento en el tercer o cuarto trimestre de 2025, [<u>específicamente en la temporada de otoño</u>](https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2025/02/the-gta-6-2025-release-window-may-have-just-gotten-smaller). El juego estará disponible en las plataformas PlayStation 5 y Xbox Series X|S. Si bien el anuncio confirma un lanzamiento en 2025, no especifica la disponibilidad regional. Además, los retrasos son una posibilidad." }, { "id": 35566, "title": "¿Ganará España el Festival de Eurovisión en 2025?", "short_title": "¿España ganará Eurovisión 2025?", "url_title": "¿España ganará Eurovisión 2025?", "slug": "espana-ganara-eurovision-2025", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-26T15:11:57.043780Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:37:26Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:50.255494Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:37:26Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-16T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-16T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-17T21:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 273, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 233, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35017, "title": "¿Ganará España el Festival de Eurovisión en 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-26T15:11:57.044191Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-17T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-20T10:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-20T10:16:46.897588Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-16T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-16T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "El [<u>Festival de Eurovisión 2025</u>](https://eurovision.tv/event/basel-2025) está programado para celebrarse en Basilea, Suiza, con la Gran Final el 17 de mayo de 2025. España ha sido un participante habitual, aunque sus resultados en la última década han sido modestos, con la mejor actuación siendo un tercer puesto en 2022 y un segundo mejor puesto en el lugar 17 en 2023. Para el concurso de 2025, España estará representada por la canción \"Esa Diva\", interpretada por Melody. Para ver un adelanto de la participación de España, [<u>puedes ver la actuación de Melody aquí</u>](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H46FB-rLh04).\n\nEurovisión es uno de los eventos no deportivos más vistos en Europa, juzgado en base a una combinación de votos del jurado y del público. El concurso continúa siendo un evento cultural significativo, atrayendo a espectadores y participantes de todo el continente.", "resolution_criteria": "Esta pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si España es declarada oficialmente ganadora del Festival de Eurovisión 2025 por la Unión Europea de Radiodifusión (UER) o a través de un anuncio oficial documentado en medios de comunicación acreditados. Se resolverá como **No** si España no gana el concurso. En caso de que no se anuncie un ganador oficial en 2025, la pregunta se resolverá como **No**. En caso de empate, la pregunta se resolverá como **Sí**.", "fine_print": "* Si España es declarada ganadora por cualquier medio oficial (incluso si posteriormente hay una controversia), esta pregunta se resolverá como **Sí**.", "post_id": 35566, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747326053.096109, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 269, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747326053.096109, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 269, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.04801096766532061 ], "histogram": [ [ 22.44803078896159, 1.892117736319166, 1.9586974791236103, 2.5430462588940506, 0.0006711418859032166, 0.20964292342358215, 0.0, 0.005908375716559297, 0.0, 0.053815182993793516, 0.24804760760066666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.5957601830986e-06, 0.0008934788029958628, 3.301802489888612e-05, 0.0, 3.099031819669828e-07, 0.015747134152495342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.91576160346378e-05, 0.0, 0.026408373738648735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0480255529004416e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9123669279381309, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014469758817185277, 0.0, 0.4028116959151794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5722153061337222 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 99.51920990435897, "peer_score": 3.7743476783582985, "coverage": 0.9979450110823173, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9979450110823173, "spot_peer_score": 2.732063813906966, "spot_baseline_score": 99.85565831303313, "baseline_archived_score": 99.51920990435897, "peer_archived_score": 3.7743476783582985, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.732063813906966, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 99.85565831303313 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 404, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "El [<u>Festival de Eurovisión 2025</u>](https://eurovision.tv/event/basel-2025) está programado para celebrarse en Basilea, Suiza, con la Gran Final el 17 de mayo de 2025. España ha sido un participante habitual, aunque sus resultados en la última década han sido modestos, con la mejor actuación siendo un tercer puesto en 2022 y un segundo mejor puesto en el lugar 17 en 2023. Para el concurso de 2025, España estará representada por la canción \"Esa Diva\", interpretada por Melody. Para ver un adelanto de la participación de España, [<u>puedes ver la actuación de Melody aquí</u>](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H46FB-rLh04).\n\nEurovisión es uno de los eventos no deportivos más vistos en Europa, juzgado en base a una combinación de votos del jurado y del público. El concurso continúa siendo un evento cultural significativo, atrayendo a espectadores y participantes de todo el continente." }, { "id": 35564, "title": "¿Será la película con mayor recaudación mundial en 2025 parte de una franquicia?", "short_title": "¿La película más taquillera de 2025 será franquicia?", "url_title": "¿La película más taquillera de 2025 será franquicia?", "slug": "la-pelicula-mas-taquillera-de-2025-sera-franquicia", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-26T15:05:36.187599Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:37:12Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-25T09:36:09.943426Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:37:12Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-29T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 291, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 233, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35015, "title": "¿Será la película con mayor recaudación mundial en 2025 parte de una franquicia?", "created_at": "2025-02-26T15:05:36.187964Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-29T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-29T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Las franquicias cinematográficas han dominado la taquilla global en los últimos años, a menudo superando a las películas independientes a través de audiencias establecidas y merchandising extenso. Plataformas como [<u>Box Office Mojo</u>](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/world/2025/) proporcionan estadísticas detalladas de ingresos globales. En los últimos cuatro años, tres veces la película más taquillera fue una película de franquicia.\n\nEn 2025, varias películas de franquicias de alto perfil están [<u>programadas para su estreno</u>](https://screenrant.com/movie-sequels-massive-budgets-coming-in-2025-list/), incluyendo \"Avatar: Fire and Ash\", \"Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning\" y \"Jurassic World Rebirth\". El líder actual en la taquilla es \"Captain America: Brave New World\", una franquicia.", "resolution_criteria": "Esta pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si, según los datos finales de taquilla mundial para 2025 —según lo informado por una fuente confiable como [<u>Box Office Mojo</u>](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/world/2025/)— la película con el mayor ingreso bruto total es una película de franquicia (es decir, parte de una serie o universo cinematográfico). Se resolverá como **No** si la película más taquillera no forma parte de una franquicia. En caso de empate por el primer puesto, la pregunta se resolverá como **Sí**.", "fine_print": "	•\tLas franquicias o universos cinematográficos establecidos deben cubrir el mismo universo. Por ejemplo, tanto la serie '28 Days Later' como la Trilogía 'Before' contarían como franquicias, mientras que 'Venom', cuando se estrenó por primera vez. no se consideraría parte de una franquicia.\n\n	•\tUna película que sea un *remake* automáticamente la convierte en parte de una franquicia.\n\n	•\tUna película que tiene una secuela anunciada contará como parte de una franquicia.", "post_id": 35564, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753436159.769333, "end_time": 1753533082.171915, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753436159.769333, "end_time": 1753533082.171915, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9193047240834322 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05181477501890881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007733503802370377, 0.0011473164167071434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010831122068851487, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021447946252558556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4402311966209907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00024339136089546854, 0.152264643414701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.712152087817123e-05, 0.5371714030031313, 0.023044466250350698, 0.0, 0.7908271456797485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018396247667550084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3494260681549452, 0.13596398739509616, 0.001462381617915218, 0.0005792914588336932, 0.0, 0.9874987339641732, 0.2634748950883644, 0.049474873801976196, 0.08294799094127166, 0.009209063802678963, 1.5999399881098442, 0.6398149272595961, 0.5106749693366863, 0.15383029812029902, 0.6023248813769556, 4.021572241332984, 1.1932443641993775, 0.9878478932052426, 1.9984687543639652, 4.425104860469842 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 495, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Las franquicias cinematográficas han dominado la taquilla global en los últimos años, a menudo superando a las películas independientes a través de audiencias establecidas y merchandising extenso. Plataformas como [<u>Box Office Mojo</u>](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/world/2025/) proporcionan estadísticas detalladas de ingresos globales. En los últimos cuatro años, tres veces la película más taquillera fue una película de franquicia.\n\nEn 2025, varias películas de franquicias de alto perfil están [<u>programadas para su estreno</u>](https://screenrant.com/movie-sequels-massive-budgets-coming-in-2025-list/), incluyendo \"Avatar: Fire and Ash\", \"Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning\" y \"Jurassic World Rebirth\". El líder actual en la taquilla es \"Captain America: Brave New World\", una franquicia." }, { "id": 35563, "title": "¿Alcanzará Bluesky los 100 millones de usuarios antes de finales de 2025?", "short_title": "¿Bluesky 100M usuarios antes de fin de año?", "url_title": "¿Bluesky 100M usuarios antes de fin de año?", "slug": "bluesky-100m-usuarios-antes-de-fin-de-ano", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-26T14:54:22.308363Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:36:57Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-25T09:36:06.107635Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:36:57Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 396, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 233, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35014, "title": "¿Alcanzará Bluesky los 100 millones de usuarios antes de finales de 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-26T14:54:22.308741Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Bluesky es una red social descentralizada, inicialmente incubada por Jack Dorsey, cofundador de Twitter. Su objetivo es proporcionar una alternativa abierta frente a las plataformas tradicionales de redes sociales.\n\nBluesky ha superado los 32 millones de usuarios, según [<u>Jazco's Bluesky Stats</u>](https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats), experimentando un gran crecimiento desde su lanzamiento público en febrero de 2024. Este aumento se atribuye en parte a usuarios que abandonan X (Twitter) tras los cambios implementados por Elon Musk; también a la reelección de Donald Trump en noviembre de 2024. Alcanzar los 100 millones de usuarios antes de fin de año representaría un hito importante.", "resolution_criteria": "Esta pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si, antes del 1 de enero de 2026, el recuento de usuarios de Bluesky alcanza los 100 millones o más, según [<u>Jazco's Bluesky Stats</u>](https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats) u otra fuente creíble. Si el número reportado está por debajo de los 100 millones, la pregunta se resolverá como **No**.", "fine_print": "* Si Jazco's Bluesky Stats deja de informar este número y no se pueden encontrar otras fuentes creíbles, esta pregunta será **anulada**", "post_id": 35563, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753357322.712928, "end_time": 1753664052.97524, "forecaster_count": 206, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753357322.712928, "end_time": 1753664052.97524, "forecaster_count": 206, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.08933782683369963 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.896748799295179, 3.6298276547358794, 0.1552395629386164, 2.407649088358901, 1.4754011741039421, 3.8592788609902153, 0.9300115079592772, 0.26304114766386644, 1.4674663268392618, 0.551034014803054, 0.9922420082730975, 0.12181682306682647, 0.19251404218698187, 0.32437857958729954, 0.030955914772793244, 0.4967224594664169, 0.6781003110133202, 1.8669890242026493e-05, 0.02941294175720712, 0.001351238902254141, 0.6572242559142398, 0.0010161075458986336, 0.0032674768097317695, 0.0005155016203351393, 0.9325680965965989, 1.3990117734707288, 0.003948396664409071, 0.011691976893903255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3720629378826213, 0.00012748201179589686, 0.0, 0.012981917450948517, 0.025572546529047786, 0.049550255728186526, 0.0, 0.0022207085379983924, 0.002096790739335935, 0.0, 0.6355921841306236, 0.0, 0.009992647068503257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031937066650878435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028922850230222116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3954502185665908, 2.1506640308801268e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006569477082758945, 0.027090137812420992, 0.0, 0.045809104251965216, 0.0, 0.0027383826220321456, 0.0003879411517205351, 0.0, 0.009117649567781183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020971065751052866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003565240482862276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01307110104435422 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 750, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bluesky es una red social descentralizada, inicialmente incubada por Jack Dorsey, cofundador de Twitter. Su objetivo es proporcionar una alternativa abierta frente a las plataformas tradicionales de redes sociales.\n\nBluesky ha superado los 32 millones de usuarios, según [<u>Jazco's Bluesky Stats</u>](https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats), experimentando un gran crecimiento desde su lanzamiento público en febrero de 2024. Este aumento se atribuye en parte a usuarios que abandonan X (Twitter) tras los cambios implementados por Elon Musk; también a la reelección de Donald Trump en noviembre de 2024. Alcanzar los 100 millones de usuarios antes de fin de año representaría un hito importante." }, { "id": 35562, "title": "¿Logrará una IA un rendimiento >85% en el benchmark FrontierMath antes de 2026?", "short_title": "¿IA >85% en FrontierMath antes de 2026?", "url_title": "¿IA >85% en FrontierMath antes de 2026?", "slug": "ia-85-en-frontiermath-antes-de-2026", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-26T14:50:24.445112Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:36:47Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-25T18:21:13.369145Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:36:47Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-29T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 279, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 233, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35013, "title": "¿Logrará una IA un rendimiento >85% en el benchmark FrontierMath antes de 2026?", "created_at": "2025-02-26T14:50:24.445444Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-29T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-29T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "El benchmark FrontierMath, detallado en la [<u>página FrontierMath de Epoch AI</u>](https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/the-benchmark), está diseñado para probar el razonamiento matemático de vanguardia en sistemas de IA. Consiste en problemas desafiantes y no triviales que requieren tanto razonamiento simbólico como numérico, yendo mucho más allá del alcance de los benchmarks matemáticos estándar. A medida que la investigación en IA avanza rápidamente —con progresos en modelos de lenguaje grandes (LLM) y sistemas de \"razonamiento\" matemático— lograr una puntuación por encima del 85% en FrontierMath señalaría un avance significativo en el campo.", "resolution_criteria": "Esta pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si, antes del 1 de enero de 2026, se documenta que al menos un sistema de IA logra un rendimiento superior al 85% en el benchmark FrontierMath. \n\nEl logro debe ser reportado en un documento (como un artículo revisado por pares, presentación en conferencia, publicación oficial del benchmark o una entrada de blog por el desarrollador de la IA). Una simple referencia a avances o evaluaciones internas, sin resultados de rendimiento publicados, no calificará. Si no se publican estos resultados, la pregunta se resolverá como **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35562, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753404009.328175, "end_time": 1753621057.555579, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753404009.328175, "end_time": 1753621057.555579, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.34274072248667514 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.15588566927450515, 0.10001535513187128, 0.028794611337204092, 0.0, 0.0024289711933567753, 1.7268501342948634, 0.0, 0.0806758609749918, 0.13848612041955394, 0.8373804229016928, 0.8346084601648203, 0.39978839849268466, 0.3075306852186823, 0.36496944305551915, 0.7654585712607964, 0.9522221921844805, 0.0, 0.7057187525378884, 0.0, 0.0039784427831817725, 1.541669986011181, 0.0, 0.12440683006747595, 0.0055530792312750935, 0.04589618339742694, 0.433595061480476, 0.03403304111187108, 0.10317257705410825, 0.2017758043954245, 0.0, 0.3937629646209086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8492706350010202, 0.2435381357835173, 0.43073600416407143, 0.5062430244253354, 0.4990392614111306, 0.0, 0.007619260256521799, 0.6687751339766895, 0.0, 0.007050248220700992, 1.0, 4.8033920035236966e-05, 0.00023455588296053762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7528461607661305, 0.0, 0.8756012101279371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0047908707572896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9046966848987155, 0.0, 0.03269403092024564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2841333089510901, 0.0030578221601624896, 0.0004924294753687684, 0.0001352579382475488, 0.0, 0.2703761691660132, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000812677663835723, 0.018145231805054875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0488560930016966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000637588994409796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.1743686855278136e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028622618625317488, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49217458202480124 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 460, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "El benchmark FrontierMath, detallado en la [<u>página FrontierMath de Epoch AI</u>](https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/the-benchmark), está diseñado para probar el razonamiento matemático de vanguardia en sistemas de IA. Consiste en problemas desafiantes y no triviales que requieren tanto razonamiento simbólico como numérico, yendo mucho más allá del alcance de los benchmarks matemáticos estándar. A medida que la investigación en IA avanza rápidamente —con progresos en modelos de lenguaje grandes (LLM) y sistemas de \"razonamiento\" matemático— lograr una puntuación por encima del 85% en FrontierMath señalaría un avance significativo en el campo." }, { "id": 35561, "title": "¿Será Daniel Noboa elegido Presidente de Ecuador en 2025?", "short_title": "¿Noboa Presidente de Ecuador en 2025?", "url_title": "¿Noboa Presidente de Ecuador en 2025?", "slug": "noboa-presidente-de-ecuador-en-2025", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-26T14:46:46.444146Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:36:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:44.415200Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:36:36Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-11T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-11T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-13T21:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 270, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 233, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35012, "title": "¿Será Daniel Noboa elegido Presidente de Ecuador en 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-26T14:46:46.444567Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-13T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-14T16:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-14T16:16:29.582517Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-11T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-11T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Daniel Noboa, el actual presidente de Ecuador, busca la reelección en la carrera presidencial de 2025. Describe su postura política como de centro o centro-izquierda, aunque algunos lo caracterizan como un centrista con visiones financieras conservadoras. Conocido por políticas favorables a los negocios, la administración de Noboa se ha centrado en combatir el crimen, particularmente la violencia relacionada con las drogas, e implementar reformas económicas.\n\nLa primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de 2025, celebrada el 9 de febrero, no arrojó una mayoría absoluta para ningún candidato. Noboa [<u>obtuvo el 44,2% de los votos</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Ecuadorian_general_election), seguido de cerca por la candidata de izquierda Luisa González con el 44%. Se ha programado una segunda vuelta electoral para el 13 de abril de 2025 para determinar al ganador.", "resolution_criteria": "La pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si, después de las elecciones presidenciales de 2025 en Ecuador, Daniel Noboa es oficialmente declarado presidente electo. Si esto no sucede, esta pregunta se resolverá como **No**. Esto incluye que no se celebre una segunda vuelta antes del 1 de enero de 2026 o que los resultados de todas las elecciones de 2025 sean anulados.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35561, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744396465.96817, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 268, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744396465.96817, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 268, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5612291463747788 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.4942730861702433, 0.052115249373200626, 0.6283035790678647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1875392565825662, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000595306812687417, 0.0, 3.404106345386622e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15804699304775868, 0.0009211625686457296, 0.2455938812125614, 0.0015473513639950004, 0.0, 0.6483477383980755, 0.0, 1.0562240932773834, 0.0002787060901085519, 1.0603285840079624, 0.16928255714500376, 0.09013330841196385, 0.1957234157568936, 0.7817736369566338, 0.32008799647162217, 0.692451777141228, 1.083784251421662, 1.8266503482110976, 1.3306611472989478, 0.4316701712471422, 0.2523483607393775, 0.39686481462846357, 4.268707254049065, 2.8724290872362865, 0.0, 0.2899752822301524, 0.028317149585455233, 0.5797134028021809, 0.16657363178373738, 0.31476493498671176, 1.1626099612778251, 0.12694075341407124, 0.13866873985157624, 0.32968720391238904, 0.0010271096006450845, 0.2275650122994357, 0.8725412708309673, 0.3724278150400394, 0.6008034430616038, 0.08767015696313918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6644116233173173, 0.6689911252724876, 0.09556393623533194, 0.09361893619730767, 0.00909410050525604, 0.22642672700059008, 3.133717254786768e-05, 0.0005025873228297892, 0.033313271690378295, 1.8578975450598866e-05, 1.0072614016685633, 0.0001485401727208231, 0.008636520431463766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05808639245100587, 1.5429906956971406e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9860833539772023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8457494626037834 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 19.91281924496279, "peer_score": 4.102946870469745, "coverage": 0.9963734129004816, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9963734129004816, "spot_peer_score": -0.09452933811378224, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 19.91281924496279, "peer_archived_score": 4.102946870469745, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.09452933811378224, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 383, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Daniel Noboa, el actual presidente de Ecuador, busca la reelección en la carrera presidencial de 2025. Describe su postura política como de centro o centro-izquierda, aunque algunos lo caracterizan como un centrista con visiones financieras conservadoras. Conocido por políticas favorables a los negocios, la administración de Noboa se ha centrado en combatir el crimen, particularmente la violencia relacionada con las drogas, e implementar reformas económicas.\n\nLa primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de 2025, celebrada el 9 de febrero, no arrojó una mayoría absoluta para ningún candidato. Noboa [<u>obtuvo el 44,2% de los votos</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Ecuadorian_general_election), seguido de cerca por la candidata de izquierda Luisa González con el 44%. Se ha programado una segunda vuelta electoral para el 13 de abril de 2025 para determinar al ganador." }, { "id": 35559, "title": "Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?", "short_title": "Trzaskowski President of Poland in 2025?", "url_title": "Trzaskowski President of Poland in 2025?", "slug": "trzaskowski-president-of-poland-in-2025", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-26T13:08:05.007980Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:36:26Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:18.553511Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:36:26Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-17T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-17T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-02T21:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 318, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 233, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35011, "title": "Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-26T13:08:05.008333Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-02T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-11T10:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-11T10:52:55.107608Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-17T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-17T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 2025 presidential election, [<u>scheduled for May 18</u>](https://apnews.com/article/poland-president-election-duda-trzaskowski-f580dc709a38f927ed2291fb49cb1869)<u>,</u> comes at a crucial time for Poland. The nation is deeply polarized, with ongoing debates over rule of law issues and tensions between urban and rural populations. The outcome of next May’s vote could unblock Prime Minister Tusk’s reform agenda, which has been stymied by outgoing right-wing President Andrzej Duda since the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party was ousted from power last December.\n\nRafał Trzaskowski is the presidential candidate of the ruling Civic Coalition, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Trzaskowski is [<u>known for his progressive stance</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/db73120d-1291-4252-9500-adf32e3b7f7a), emphasizing European integration, social policies and judicial independence. Trzaskowski's main opponent is Karol Nawrocki, a historian, who has been nominated by the PiS party. Nawrocki's platform aligns with the party's patriotic and pro-Christian values. The election is expected to be highly competitive.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, following the 2025 presidential election in Poland, Rafał Trzaskowski is officially declared president-elect. If this does not happen, this question will be resolved as **No**. This includes no elections being held before 1 January 2026 or the results of all 2025 elections being annulled.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35559, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747460549.470551, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 314, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747460549.470551, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 314, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.8205604363312905 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.026748778865313395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00025200439891009957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02893804053509751, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13482043444321276, 6.864871398612352e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 5.4774277237443754e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19660311889319487, 0.005394166620053397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001206483744005815, 0.005317251303681453, 0.0, 0.0006570566609560259, 2.4382899040863696e-06, 0.0, 0.021447194367898506, 0.000758330392090668, 0.13059452233668858, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02722984833649862, 0.0, 0.026022392354913923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25723223790772365, 0.0687480766818245, 0.25941151869882173, 0.2929882877836392, 0.06370988170848857, 1.8941642866210664, 1.0306206784405156, 0.9709864930555616, 0.6111756724556326, 0.28336469796681946, 1.9073924979009036, 0.473818530873575, 0.16304468627347518, 2.6809950083951115, 1.210331626766227, 5.0863633906544905, 2.037066084100136, 0.4860694046122231, 0.5618733171420605, 0.05198327967619531, 1.1280266530126302, 0.24740821538745783, 0.3700475933878473, 2.292553143424714, 0.039957977465259864, 3.624264633677141, 0.021567375783839722, 0.0, 0.11500316004309752, 0.00010970453191649192, 1.6629160301839616, 0.0, 0.01952623379790411, 0.0, 3.423722318669336 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -131.36917039196183, "peer_score": 27.83223901387102, "coverage": 0.997964894026998, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.997964894026998, "spot_peer_score": 23.680228252365605, "spot_baseline_score": -132.19280948873626, "baseline_archived_score": -131.36917039196183, "peer_archived_score": 27.83223901387102, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 23.680228252365605, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -132.19280948873626 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 28, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 480, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 2025 presidential election, [<u>scheduled for May 18</u>](https://apnews.com/article/poland-president-election-duda-trzaskowski-f580dc709a38f927ed2291fb49cb1869)<u>,</u> comes at a crucial time for Poland. The nation is deeply polarized, with ongoing debates over rule of law issues and tensions between urban and rural populations. The outcome of next May’s vote could unblock Prime Minister Tusk’s reform agenda, which has been stymied by outgoing right-wing President Andrzej Duda since the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party was ousted from power last December.\n\nRafał Trzaskowski is the presidential candidate of the ruling Civic Coalition, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Trzaskowski is [<u>known for his progressive stance</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/db73120d-1291-4252-9500-adf32e3b7f7a), emphasizing European integration, social policies and judicial independence. Trzaskowski's main opponent is Karol Nawrocki, a historian, who has been nominated by the PiS party. Nawrocki's platform aligns with the party's patriotic and pro-Christian values. The election is expected to be highly competitive." }, { "id": 35558, "title": "¿Será Pierre Poilievre elegido Primer Ministro de Canadá en 2025?", "short_title": "¿Poilievre Primer Ministro de Canadá en 2025?", "url_title": "¿Poilievre Primer Ministro de Canadá en 2025?", "slug": "poilievre-primer-ministro-de-canada-en-2025", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-26T13:04:19.451825Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:36:14Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:58.882517Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:36:14Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-28T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-18T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-20T21:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 301, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 233, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35010, "title": "¿Será Pierre Poilievre elegido Primer Ministro de Canadá en 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-26T13:04:19.452225Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-20T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-28T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-11T14:23:07.447310Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-18T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-28T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Pierre Poilievre, líder del Partido Conservador, ha ganado un impulso significativo [<u>al atraer a votantes insatisfechos con la administración actual</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/27bd5554-c0f3-4c9f-9682-9c903f38a075) en temas como la asequibilidad de la vivienda, la inflación y la recuperación económica. Su plataforma aboga por impuestos más bajos, disminución del gasto gubernamental y \"poner a Canadá primero\".\n\nEn enero de 2025, el Primer Ministro Justin Trudeau [<u>anunció su renuncia</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/justin-trudeau-announces-plan-step-down-2025-01-06) en medio de una popularidad decreciente y desafíos internos del partido. Este cambio político ha intensificado la competitividad de las próximas elecciones, con [<u>encuestas recientes que indican una brecha cada vez menor</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_Canadian_federal_election) entre los partidos Conservador y Liberal. Se espera que las elecciones, que deben celebrarse a más tardar el 20 de octubre de 2025, se centren principalmente en cuestiones económicas, atención sanitaria y la respuesta de Canadá a las presiones comerciales internacionales, particularmente a la luz de las recientes amenazas arancelarias de EE.UU.\n\nSegún la información actualizada, las elecciones federales canadienses deben celebrarse a más tardar el 20 de octubre de 2025, conforme a la ley electoral del país. [<u>Fuente</u>](https://www.npr.org/2025/01/09/nx-s1-5251302/whats-next-for-canada-5-questions-will-help-decide-the-future-after-trudeau) [<u>Fuente</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-main-opposition-leader-poilievre-rides-wave-anti-trudeau-discontent-2025-01-08/)\n\nLas encuestas actuales muestran que Pierre Poilievre y el Partido Conservador tienen una ventaja significativa, aprovechando el descontento con el gobierno de Trudeau. Tras la sorpresiva renuncia de Justin Trudeau en enero de 2025, el panorama político canadiense ha experimentado un cambio importante que favorece a Poilievre como potencial próximo Primer Ministro. [<u>Fuente</u>](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czjdr98n1kxo)", "resolution_criteria": "La pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si, tras las elecciones federales de 2025 en Canadá, Pierre Poilievre es oficialmente nombrado Primer Ministro. Si esto no sucede, esta pregunta se resolverá como **No**. Esto incluye que no se celebren elecciones antes del 1 de enero de 2026 o que los resultados de todas las elecciones de 2025 sean anulados.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35558, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745843550.071394, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 298, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745843550.071394, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 298, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2079376069333068 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.9453558644507378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13556026476045646, 0.25750844043036336, 1.6434786572808533, 0.48949367500376584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.826979976391557, 1.000136925135693, 0.0, 0.5223440671315692, 0.0, 1.9601714335510008, 0.9436254434807668, 2.522638950457657, 0.0, 0.40602756667639356, 5.458238390966153, 0.5546907647778128, 1.2960599037402718, 0.39750734651337716, 0.9552706269161024, 1.8985160782050468, 0.525586270539765, 0.5716044902843048, 0.306658861760338, 0.0, 0.3597792640345419, 0.17428512865486487, 0.014084554583309069, 0.4451163689606115, 0.5274217563171596, 1.1925239522571114, 1.9220132430540528e-05, 0.03578604740470802, 0.0007012286819701202, 0.38911666738578676, 0.2553402310805408, 0.008966870598187902, 0.034305777581186414, 0.08933222145328631, 0.16735290652793405, 0.08462998720832181, 0.0, 0.12827633070230313, 0.21896225592017468, 0.021817096222707517, 0.061791886123697515, 0.04843237049104081, 6.323903617372439e-06, 0.006114138266481071, 0.027147618152533356, 0.18900235365690862, 0.011488942983437212, 0.04463687866145768, 0.0, 0.0024477729485884382, 0.1308540580689427, 0.0025450101414116843, 0.0023615280618326205, 4.021590181214386e-05, 0.010933592479034122, 0.0505249644761315, 0.0058675339235725096, 0.0013168263878092794, 2.6076590309153422e-05, 0.004118505951321202, 0.10848252030913236, 0.0, 0.0010755747185537087, 0.0, 0.018493220880427638, 0.08632232745701088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0033902907346218415, 0.0002887279121138843, 0.002109067809498635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03563994482688419, 5.748773220207275e-06, 0.01009945683216059, 0.0018212624736494, 0.0035396534114140155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013197074964963493, 0.004024573336190358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012139446779962956, 1.0170798929663277e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3872914868075909 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 7.319978410324177, "peer_score": 13.148458647186038, "coverage": 0.2571279123436834, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9973158526137719, "spot_peer_score": 40.75553941070536, "spot_baseline_score": 8.406426478847456, "baseline_archived_score": 7.319978410324177, "peer_archived_score": 13.148458647186038, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 40.75553941070536, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 8.406426478847456 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 618, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Pierre Poilievre, líder del Partido Conservador, ha ganado un impulso significativo [<u>al atraer a votantes insatisfechos con la administración actual</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/27bd5554-c0f3-4c9f-9682-9c903f38a075) en temas como la asequibilidad de la vivienda, la inflación y la recuperación económica. Su plataforma aboga por impuestos más bajos, disminución del gasto gubernamental y \"poner a Canadá primero\".\n\nEn enero de 2025, el Primer Ministro Justin Trudeau [<u>anunció su renuncia</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/justin-trudeau-announces-plan-step-down-2025-01-06) en medio de una popularidad decreciente y desafíos internos del partido. Este cambio político ha intensificado la competitividad de las próximas elecciones, con [<u>encuestas recientes que indican una brecha cada vez menor</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_Canadian_federal_election) entre los partidos Conservador y Liberal. Se espera que las elecciones, que deben celebrarse a más tardar el 20 de octubre de 2025, se centren principalmente en cuestiones económicas, atención sanitaria y la respuesta de Canadá a las presiones comerciales internacionales, particularmente a la luz de las recientes amenazas arancelarias de EE.UU.\n\nSegún la información actualizada, las elecciones federales canadienses deben celebrarse a más tardar el 20 de octubre de 2025, conforme a la ley electoral del país. [<u>Fuente</u>](https://www.npr.org/2025/01/09/nx-s1-5251302/whats-next-for-canada-5-questions-will-help-decide-the-future-after-trudeau) [<u>Fuente</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-main-opposition-leader-poilievre-rides-wave-anti-trudeau-discontent-2025-01-08/)\n\nLas encuestas actuales muestran que Pierre Poilievre y el Partido Conservador tienen una ventaja significativa, aprovechando el descontento con el gobierno de Trudeau. Tras la sorpresiva renuncia de Justin Trudeau en enero de 2025, el panorama político canadiense ha experimentado un cambio importante que favorece a Poilievre como potencial próximo Primer Ministro. [<u>Fuente</u>](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czjdr98n1kxo)" }, { "id": 35557, "title": "¿Será Călin Georgescu elegido Presidente de Rumanía tras las elecciones de 2025?", "short_title": "¿Georgescu Presidente de Rumanía en 2025?", "url_title": "¿Georgescu Presidente de Rumanía en 2025?", "slug": "georgescu-presidente-de-rumania-en-2025", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-26T12:53:52.679715Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:36:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:14.287682Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:36:01Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-17T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-17T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-18T21:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 302, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 233, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35009, "title": "¿Será Călin Georgescu elegido Presidente de Rumanía tras las elecciones de 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-26T12:53:52.680110Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-18T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-20T10:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-20T10:14:48.585017Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-17T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-17T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "En noviembre de 2024, Călin Georgescu, un [<u>candidato ultranacionalista con sentimientos pro-rusos</u>](https://ro.wikipedia.org/wiki/C%C4%83lin_Georgescu), ganó la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Rumanía. Sin embargo, el Tribunal Constitucional anuló los resultados debido a acusaciones de interferencia rusa, incluyendo ciberataques y manipulación a través de plataformas como TikTok. Esta medida sin precedentes provocó agitación política y protestas generalizadas, con miles de personas manifestándose en Bucarest para apoyar a Georgescu. Se han programado nuevas elecciones para mayo de 2025, y las encuestas recientes indican que Georgescu sigue siendo un [<u>candidato destacado</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Romanian_presidential_election). La situación continúa evolucionando, con preocupaciones sobre la integridad democrática, la influencia extranjera y la estabilidad política de Rumanía en primer plano. Se espera una carrera concurrida, con múltiples contendientes de partidos establecidos y nuevos anunciando su candidatura.", "resolution_criteria": "La pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si, después de las elecciones presidenciales de 2025 en Rumanía, Călin Georgescu es oficialmente declarado presidente electo. Si esto no sucede, esta pregunta se resolverá como **No**. Esto incluye que no se celebren elecciones antes del 1 de enero de 2026 o que los resultados de todas las elecciones de 2025 sean anulados, la pregunta se resolverá como **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35557, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747308494.611519, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 297, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747308494.611519, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 297, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.04806982682459514 ], "histogram": [ [ 20.826798528643195, 6.080221462858137, 0.2411588006151237, 0.1839123254998174, 0.45459075236108065, 0.24572512851454964, 0.022821233271942663, 0.04346767617365466, 0.014877140467998711, 0.5295531167346286, 0.10743896699234655, 0.15390858697623044, 0.009157864974268017, 0.001208170702942002, 0.4733344870628815, 1.192450418434451, 0.004373190010441527, 0.0038032501047121385, 0.003803688025358008, 0.013950745221550327, 1.1638815654203225, 0.18687108557788165, 0.008506186371991473, 0.009028492606517497, 0.024606045431413676, 0.03796616657496057, 0.003230388904292516, 0.0, 0.014325833836014015, 0.0, 0.002250933351286504, 3.4312373957424915e-05, 0.0, 0.0015350641628027416, 0.00029975559805261434, 0.0, 5.092183687082606e-05, 0.0, 2.684357636619468e-05, 0.002008769058732007, 0.001197582061669393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.8689857593250426e-06, 0.004940324360142374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006205960704551676, 0.0001784213495574226, 0.0, 4.1398764893381413e-05, 0.0, 1.3479990041346531e-07, 7.838505517329277e-06, 0.1395474744273428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.769228779815908e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1164895361031446e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005333818186284996, 5.449021288471836e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07672914341836, 0.0, 1.2060781459158008e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01689493338597967, 8.58131342121592e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6891670265920286e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.662931177835911 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 94.59921805865557, "peer_score": 19.622308845325563, "coverage": 0.9979659497910488, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9979659497910488, "spot_peer_score": 21.904770527432508, "spot_baseline_score": 98.5500430304885, "baseline_archived_score": 94.59921805865557, "peer_archived_score": 19.622308845325563, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.904770527432508, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 98.5500430304885 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 558, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "En noviembre de 2024, Călin Georgescu, un [<u>candidato ultranacionalista con sentimientos pro-rusos</u>](https://ro.wikipedia.org/wiki/C%C4%83lin_Georgescu), ganó la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Rumanía. Sin embargo, el Tribunal Constitucional anuló los resultados debido a acusaciones de interferencia rusa, incluyendo ciberataques y manipulación a través de plataformas como TikTok. Esta medida sin precedentes provocó agitación política y protestas generalizadas, con miles de personas manifestándose en Bucarest para apoyar a Georgescu. Se han programado nuevas elecciones para mayo de 2025, y las encuestas recientes indican que Georgescu sigue siendo un [<u>candidato destacado</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Romanian_presidential_election). La situación continúa evolucionando, con preocupaciones sobre la integridad democrática, la influencia extranjera y la estabilidad política de Rumanía en primer plano. Se espera una carrera concurrida, con múltiples contendientes de partidos establecidos y nuevos anunciando su candidatura." }, { "id": 35512, "title": "Will the President’s Malaria Initiative program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "President’s Malaria Initiative terminated by Jan 1, 2026?", "url_title": "President’s Malaria Initiative terminated by Jan 1, 2026?", "slug": "presidents-malaria-initiative-terminated-by-jan-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-24T01:14:17.954627Z", "published_at": "2025-02-26T11:59:47Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-19T21:03:28.630711Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-26T11:59:47Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-26T11:59:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32681, "type": "question_series", "name": "USAID Outlook", "slug": "usaid", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/usaid-outlook-banner.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-02-27T20:03:51Z", "close_date": "2027-02-27T20:04:19Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-02-25T18:24:54.898063Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-24T08:05:43.135359Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32681, "type": "question_series", "name": "USAID Outlook", "slug": "usaid", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/usaid-outlook-banner.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-02-27T20:03:51Z", "close_date": "2027-02-27T20:04:19Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-02-25T18:24:54.898063Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-24T08:05:43.135359Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34996, "title": "Will the President’s Malaria Initiative program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-02-24T01:14:17.955005Z", "open_time": "2025-02-26T11:59:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-26T13:59:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-26T13:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to its Wayback Machine [January 17, 2025 archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20250117222410/https://www.pmi.gov/), the President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI) is described as follows: \n\n> The U.S. Government’s focal point for the global fight against malaria, the U.S. President’s Malaria Initiative has helped save millions of lives and contributed to substantial gains in education, productivity, and economic development.\n\n> PMI started as a five-year initiative with the goal of reducing malaria deaths by 50% in 15 African countries. Thanks to the bipartisan support of Congress and the generosity of the American people, PMI now works in 27 partner countries in sub-Saharan Africa and three programs in the Greater Mekong Subregion in Southeast Asia–representing about 90% of the global malaria burden.\n\nAt the time of this question, its [website](https://www.pmi.gov/) showed the following error message: \n\n\n\nCreated in 2005 [under President George W. Bush](https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/infocus/malaria/), PMI [has been credited with](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5697814/) saving appoximately 940,000 lives in the 2005-2017 time period, mainly in Subsaharan Africa and the Greater Mekong Subregion of Southeast Asia.\n\nOn January 20, 2025, newly-inaugurated President Donald J. Trump signed Executive Order 14169 Reevaluating and Realigning United States Foreign Aid, which [targeted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_14169#USAID) in particular USAID, which operates the PMI program.\n\nAccording to the [Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-status-of-president-trumps-pause-of-foreign-aid-and-implications-for-pepfar-and-other-global-health-programs):\n\n> Despite the emergency humanitarian waiver specifying life-saving medicine and medical services, it was still unclear what programs it actually applied to and whether it included services provided by PEPFAR, the President’s Malaria Initiative, and other health programs, since under the State Department’s [framework for foreign aid](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40213), health programs and humanitarian assistance efforts are categorized separately. As a result, the PEPFAR program applied for a specific waiver, which was [granted on February 1](https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vQgNTpC6F5oaOnkebQokJ_2eYgM_IcQNT7alIL6R3P16Ef4Z0pmQby3Y1eHbJcTxK_yJ8EPVNiibxON/pub), for certain activities. No other waivers have been announced for any other U.S. global health program, such as for the President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI), TB, maternal and child health, and nutrition activities.\n\nAs of February 23, 2025, USAID [was beginning](https://apnews.com/article/usaid-trump-musk-foreign-aid-firings-a3af8ce6ef17878b718c8e2ed3bf98e4) a round of mass layoffs of thousands of staffers, leaving the future of programs such as PMI in doubt.  ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the United States President's Malaria Initiative ([PMI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President%27s_Malaria_Initiative)) ceases to exist before January 1, 2026. This can come about through any of the following mechanisms:\n\n* the initiative being terminated.\n* the initiative and/or its functions merging with or being consolidated into another program or agency, with PMI no longer continuing to operate as a distinct organization.\n* the program having its public funding eliminated by Congress.", "fine_print": "* Because PMI was created by law, an enacted law that satisfies one of the above requirements would resolve the question as **Yes** immediately. In the event a presidential action would satisfy the above, the question will resolve as **Yes** if the action has taken effect for 60 consecutive days without being stayed, blocked, or otherwise halted by a federal court. In the event a presidential action is temporarily blocked by a court but later goes into effect for 60 days the question will resolve as **Yes**. The 60 day period must complete before January 1, 2026.\n* Partial termination or partial elimination of funding is not sufficient.\n* PMI being renamed will not count, as long as the core mission of funding global control of malaria remains intact within the same program.", "post_id": 35512, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753385246.592511, "end_time": 1753902115.904915, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753385246.592511, "end_time": 1753902115.904915, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7188069055350482 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2079797802773509, 0.26985829399049166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4203848492435676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5492768913479766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2294348988188281, 0.0, 0.8929389982591724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7949347303552422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48167841893631047, 0.7053717364567356, 0.1932619357323092, 0.0, 0.0, 1.303500862457541 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 79, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to its Wayback Machine [January 17, 2025 archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20250117222410/https://www.pmi.gov/), the President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI) is described as follows: \n\n> The U.S. Government’s focal point for the global fight against malaria, the U.S. President’s Malaria Initiative has helped save millions of lives and contributed to substantial gains in education, productivity, and economic development.\n\n> PMI started as a five-year initiative with the goal of reducing malaria deaths by 50% in 15 African countries. Thanks to the bipartisan support of Congress and the generosity of the American people, PMI now works in 27 partner countries in sub-Saharan Africa and three programs in the Greater Mekong Subregion in Southeast Asia–representing about 90% of the global malaria burden.\n\nAt the time of this question, its [website](https://www.pmi.gov/) showed the following error message: \n\n\n\nCreated in 2005 [under President George W. Bush](https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/infocus/malaria/), PMI [has been credited with](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5697814/) saving appoximately 940,000 lives in the 2005-2017 time period, mainly in Subsaharan Africa and the Greater Mekong Subregion of Southeast Asia.\n\nOn January 20, 2025, newly-inaugurated President Donald J. Trump signed Executive Order 14169 Reevaluating and Realigning United States Foreign Aid, which [targeted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_14169#USAID) in particular USAID, which operates the PMI program.\n\nAccording to the [Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-status-of-president-trumps-pause-of-foreign-aid-and-implications-for-pepfar-and-other-global-health-programs):\n\n> Despite the emergency humanitarian waiver specifying life-saving medicine and medical services, it was still unclear what programs it actually applied to and whether it included services provided by PEPFAR, the President’s Malaria Initiative, and other health programs, since under the State Department’s [framework for foreign aid](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40213), health programs and humanitarian assistance efforts are categorized separately. As a result, the PEPFAR program applied for a specific waiver, which was [granted on February 1](https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vQgNTpC6F5oaOnkebQokJ_2eYgM_IcQNT7alIL6R3P16Ef4Z0pmQby3Y1eHbJcTxK_yJ8EPVNiibxON/pub), for certain activities. No other waivers have been announced for any other U.S. global health program, such as for the President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI), TB, maternal and child health, and nutrition activities.\n\nAs of February 23, 2025, USAID [was beginning](https://apnews.com/article/usaid-trump-musk-foreign-aid-firings-a3af8ce6ef17878b718c8e2ed3bf98e4) a round of mass layoffs of thousands of staffers, leaving the future of programs such as PMI in doubt.  " }, { "id": 35505, "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo run for mayor of New York City?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-andrew-cuomo-run-for-mayor-of-new-york-city", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T04:31:21.177259Z", "published_at": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:44:22.985184Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-12T14:08:22.584970Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-12T14:08:22.584970Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 34972, "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo run for mayor of New York City?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T04:31:21.177259Z", "open_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-02T00:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-02T00:23:24.457371Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the NYT, \"Mr. Cuomo was elected to three terms as governor and resigned in 2021 after a sexual harassment scandal.\n\nHe is considering entering the race and leads in polls. If he does run, he is expected to highlight his record as governor, which included major infrastructure projects, raising the minimum wage, leading the state through the coronavirus pandemic and legalizing same-sex marriage.\n\nMr. Cuomo made enemies through his combative political tactics. Some have already vowed to highlight the Justice Department’s findings that he sexually harassed at least 13 state employees, which he denies. He has also faced widespread criticism for his handling of nursing home deaths early in the pandemic.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the [Who’s Running for Mayor of New York City?](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/nyregion/nyc-mayor-candidates-2025.html) tracker page maintained by the New York Times is updated before April 1, 2025 to classify Andrew Cuomo as running for mayor of New York City. If that tracker page does not have Cuomo listed as Running, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. Question resolves based on the value shown at the specific webpage listed. Should the webpage be offline on April 1, 2025, resolution will wait until the end of this tournament's resolutions, at which time if the page is still down the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 35505, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740704503.908566, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.975 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740704503.908566, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.975 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.025000000000000022, 0.975 ], "means": [ 0.9720632335287088 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 1.0, 0.6353066724512867, 2.404971959192714, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 74.06036691684615, "peer_score": 0.07545415941932879, "coverage": 0.7656004716155209, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.7656004716155209, "spot_peer_score": -0.05179846903986106, "spot_baseline_score": 96.34741239748861, "baseline_archived_score": 74.06036691684615, "peer_archived_score": 0.07545415941932879, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.05179846903986106, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 96.34741239748861 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 24, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the NYT, \"Mr. Cuomo was elected to three terms as governor and resigned in 2021 after a sexual harassment scandal.\n\nHe is considering entering the race and leads in polls. If he does run, he is expected to highlight his record as governor, which included major infrastructure projects, raising the minimum wage, leading the state through the coronavirus pandemic and legalizing same-sex marriage.\n\nMr. Cuomo made enemies through his combative political tactics. Some have already vowed to highlight the Justice Department’s findings that he sexually harassed at least 13 state employees, which he denies. He has also faced widespread criticism for his handling of nursing home deaths early in the pandemic.\"" }, { "id": 35504, "title": "Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-steelnippon-steel-merger-collapse-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T04:31:21.155889Z", "published_at": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:08.323585Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-12T14:08:22.584970Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-12T14:08:22.584970Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 34971, "title": "Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T04:31:21.155889Z", "open_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T10:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T10:38:57.927431Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Wikipedia: [Proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_acquisition_of_U.S._Steel_by_Nippon_Steel)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, either U.S. Steel or Nippon Steel files an SEC Form 8-K announcing the merger agreement's termination or abandonment.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35504, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740696016.476249, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.135 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740696016.476249, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.135 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.15336406644877934 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.8502051036716037, 0.3960520319014228, 1.0, 0.41336531919859754, 0.8030484213491771, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 51.4905800840607, "peer_score": 1.0394476428225026, "coverage": 0.7132392306352149, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.7132392306352149, "spot_peer_score": 1.3946269354729104, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 51.4905800840607, "peer_archived_score": 1.0394476428225026, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.3946269354729104, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 17, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Wikipedia: [Proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_acquisition_of_U.S._Steel_by_Nippon_Steel)" }, { "id": 35501, "title": "Will Ukraine announce a presidential election before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Ukr announce a presidential election by April 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Ukr announce a presidential election by April 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-ukr-announce-a-presidential-election-by-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T04:29:00.045816Z", "published_at": "2025-02-25T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:56.637107Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-25T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-12T14:08:22.584970Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-12T14:08:22.584970Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 34968, "title": "Will Ukraine announce a presidential election before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T04:29:00.045816Z", "open_time": "2025-02-25T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T01:58:26.152100Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Next Ukrainian presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Ukrainian_presidential_election)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, a specific date on which a presidential election will be held is officially announced by the government of Ukraine or any of its agencies that have the authority to do so. If no such announcement occurs before April 1, 2025, this question resolves as No.", "fine_print": "The election does not have to be held before April 1, 2025; this question resolves based on an announcement.", "post_id": 35501, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740626519.961317, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.055 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740626519.961317, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.055 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.05295075003421904 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.2814081443602781, 2.8848255354061108, 0.701700440519318, 0.13533528323661267, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 77.70769920021858, "peer_score": 0.7847833324494471, "coverage": 0.8597737730779347, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8597737730779347, "spot_peer_score": 0.5272986430810696, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 77.70769920021858, "peer_archived_score": 0.7847833324494471, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.5272986430810696, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Next Ukrainian presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Ukrainian_presidential_election)" }, { "id": 35500, "title": "Will Cathy Harris still be listed as chairing the Merit Systems Protection Board on March 31, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-cathy-harris-still-be-listed-as-chairing-the-merit-systems-protection-board-on-march-31-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T04:29:00.018437Z", "published_at": "2025-02-25T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:44:35.341840Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-25T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-12T14:08:22.584970Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-12T14:08:22.584970Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 34967, "title": "Will Cathy Harris still be listed as chairing the Merit Systems Protection Board on March 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T04:29:00.018437Z", "open_time": "2025-02-25T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T11:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T11:39:13.964569Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Hill: [Federal judge reinstates employee appeals board member fired by Trump](https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5151616-federal-judge-orders-reinstatement-of-merit-systems-protection-board-member/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Cathy A. Harris is listed as chairman of the board or equivalent (as she is listed on February 18, 2025) of the U.S. Merit Systems Protection Board (MSPB) at [this link](https://www.mspb.gov/about/members.htm) when accessed by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025 when accessed by Metaculus.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35500, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740622254.934936, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.646 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740622254.934936, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.646 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.354, 0.646 ], "means": [ 0.6581779815871086 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0695798816907605, 0.0, 0.8423388801235393, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8580636370315273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -11.797149196822986, "peer_score": 6.341301316299136, "coverage": 0.8468715165302058, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8468715165302058, "spot_peer_score": 4.702880131602702, "spot_baseline_score": -49.81787345790897, "baseline_archived_score": -11.797149196822986, "peer_archived_score": 6.341301316299136, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.702880131602702, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -49.81787345790897 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Hill: [Federal judge reinstates employee appeals board member fired by Trump](https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5151616-federal-judge-orders-reinstatement-of-merit-systems-protection-board-member/)" } ] }
\n\nCreated](http://message:%20%5Cn%5Cn%5Cn%5CnCreated){kind=link}
