Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=600
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If it does appear on the Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons (SDN) List at that time, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "At the time of this question, the current listing of Nord Stream 2 by OFAC can be found [here](https://sanctionssearch.ofac.treas.gov/Details.aspx?id=31926).", "post_id": 37444, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746531017.964587, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14392297885228963 ], "centers": [ 0.15666666666666665 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746531017.964587, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14392297885228963 ], "centers": [ 0.15666666666666665 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8433333333333334, 0.15666666666666665 ], "means": [ 0.18294937582103288 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16665508460406264, 0.0, 0.3164420601480945, 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"baseline_archived_score": 69.7997153286158, "peer_archived_score": 5.44309766390894, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.19930320482658, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 75.41748841984293 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[White House debates lifting sanctions on Russian energy assets, Nord Stream](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/23/white-house-debating-lifting-sanctions-on-russian-energy-assets-00306486)" }, { "id": 37442, "title": "Will Berkshire Hathaway reveal a purchase of more Domino's Pizza stock in its Q1 2025 13F filing?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-berkshire-hathaway-reveal-a-purchase-of-more-dominos-pizza-stock-in-its-q1-2025-13f-filing", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:36.379173Z", "published_at": "2025-05-06T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.941996Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-06T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-06T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-15T21:13:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-06T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36802, "title": "Will Berkshire Hathaway reveal a purchase of more Domino's Pizza stock in its Q1 2025 13F filing?", "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:36.379173Z", "open_time": "2025-05-06T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-06T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-06T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-15T21:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-15T21:13:26.498806Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-06T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-06T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.7, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "RetailWire: [Domino’s Pizza Stake Purchased by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Group](https://retailwire.com/dominos-pizza-warren-buffett/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the 13F filing for Berkshire Hathaway, Inc., filed for the period ending 2025-03-31, reports the company holding greater than 2,382,000 shares of Domino's Pizza, Inc. (ticker symbol DPZ).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37442, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746516622.344944, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.59 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746516622.344944, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.59 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.41000000000000003, 0.59 ], "means": [ 0.5338694259323566 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3837542165778665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0881569413138735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0933947089296265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4352821374375108, 1.1569884610605214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.546648869582902, 0.17192566867158657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3367607381080705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9193562792908516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20962132397093142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2964170805706633, 0.0, 0.001078956545637215, 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23.87868595871165 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "RetailWire: [Domino’s Pizza Stake Purchased by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Group](https://retailwire.com/dominos-pizza-warren-buffett/)" }, { "id": 37441, "title": "Will the USD be worth under 0.80 EUR before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-usd-be-worth-under-080-eur-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:36.373536Z", "published_at": "2025-05-06T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.153091Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-06T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-06T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T17:37:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-06T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36801, "title": "Will the USD be worth under 0.80 EUR before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:36.373536Z", "open_time": "2025-05-06T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-06T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-06T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T17:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T17:40:12.845372Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-06T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-06T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, 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An example of a bill that would count is [Senate Bill 153](https://www.legislature.ohio.gov/legislation/136/sb153). This question resolves upon enactment; therefore other questions such as when the legislation takes effect or whether it survives court challenges and is implemented is immaterial to this question's resolution. Please note that under Ohio law, a bill is considered enacted \"after both houses have passed and agreed on identical bills.\" ([Source](https://www.lsc.ohio.gov/assets/organizations/legislative-service-commission/files/chapter-5-enacting-legislation-10021971.pdf))", "post_id": 37432, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746443748.793594, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746443748.793594, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.44761263779183674 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008934832410362489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608552681539503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404309120326557, 0.0, 1.1065212543265888, 0.0, 0.3109996625627898, 0.09133304969971341, 0.0, 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"default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Kneecap](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kneecap_\\(band\\)) are an Irish band who have significantly risen in popularity since their formation in 2017. \n\nThe band is a trio consisting of: \"Mo Chara\" (Liam Óg Ó hAnnaidh), \"Móglaí Bap\" (Naoise Ó Caireallain), and \"DJ Próvaí\" (J. J. Ó Dochartaigh) whose songs consist of rap in a mixture of Irish Gaelic and English giving them a unique style.\n\nNamed after a [torture technique](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kneecapping) made infamous by the Irish Republican Army, the group are no stranger to controversies. Whilst most have been minor - complaints about profanity, drug use, violence in their songs, music videos and concerts, and promotion of Irish Republicanism - the band have come under a large amount of controversy resulting in cancelled performances which initially stemmed from a Coachcella performance where the band, \"described Israel's military action in Gaza as a US-funded genocide\". \n\nOn top of this, [two reports were made](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly5r4gg7l6o) to the UK Metropolitan police:\n\n> \\[...] the band allegedly call for the death of Conservative MPs. Another seems to show a band member shouting \"up Hamas, up Hezbollah\". Both groups are banned in the UK and it is a crime to express support for them.\n\n> \\[...]\n\n> They claimed that footage where they appeared to say \"the only good Tory is a dead Tory\" had been \"taken out of all context\", and apologised for the hurt caused to the families of murdered MPs Jo Cox and Sir David Amess.\n\nThe band are [due](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/line-up/) to play at Glastonbury 2025 - the UK's largest and most prestigious music festival - however there have been [calls](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/04/30/kneecap-should-be-banned-full-stop-after-dead-tories-video/) for the band to be removed from the lineup.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Kneecap officially performs at Glastonbury 2025, scheduled for June 25 to June 29, 2025.", "fine_print": "* If Glastonbury 2025 does not take place before September 1, 2025 this question will be **annulled**.\n* Officially perform is defined as a planned performance as allowed by the festival organisers.\n* Any official performance is considered sufficient for this question. If, for example, one band member is banned from the festival, the question will still resolve as **Yes** if the other member(s) perform under the name Kneecap.", "post_id": 37357, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750088991.483107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750088991.483107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8742015972522217 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6246399232652096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013446030350544804, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005432350986704414, 0.0, 0.0023430504572772284, 0.0, 0.0007831332794337743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012812677089229594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00745418629536983, 0.0212261903199658, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018939011280897734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0067236276057129835, 0.5919456382250862, 0.004343564182950172, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010033693009389048, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016828067029426297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5345297755217446, 0.0, 0.0003140657611517779, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6698553662661938, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020448973309364713, 0.0, 0.022227648901225576, 0.3805270152701288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00451041429692501, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04551310199086637, 0.0, 0.07765470851940062, 0.01893000449537379, 0.0, 0.03354609775351218, 0.022416477875092735, 0.05536195637519603, 0.0958682974717941, 0.1286413261105049, 0.026422351794421036, 0.039143517677046796, 1.833257086288448, 0.7386724971385698, 0.7404326785463791, 0.42584192862694914, 0.06542236154791992, 3.5394380954113807, 1.3072548358434943, 1.6329231513732414, 0.5389081720071665, 3.810877358451819 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 43.359729473354925, "peer_score": 17.708698212268764, "coverage": 0.9998908089504395, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998908089504395, "spot_peer_score": -1.24832487317564, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": 43.359729473354925, "peer_archived_score": 17.708698212268764, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.24832487317564, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 968, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Kneecap](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kneecap_\\(band\\)) are an Irish band who have significantly risen in popularity since their formation in 2017. \n\nThe band is a trio consisting of: \"Mo Chara\" (Liam Óg Ó hAnnaidh), \"Móglaí Bap\" (Naoise Ó Caireallain), and \"DJ Próvaí\" (J. J. Ó Dochartaigh) whose songs consist of rap in a mixture of Irish Gaelic and English giving them a unique style.\n\nNamed after a [torture technique](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kneecapping) made infamous by the Irish Republican Army, the group are no stranger to controversies. Whilst most have been minor - complaints about profanity, drug use, violence in their songs, music videos and concerts, and promotion of Irish Republicanism - the band have come under a large amount of controversy resulting in cancelled performances which initially stemmed from a Coachcella performance where the band, \"described Israel's military action in Gaza as a US-funded genocide\". \n\nOn top of this, [two reports were made](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly5r4gg7l6o) to the UK Metropolitan police:\n\n> \\[...] the band allegedly call for the death of Conservative MPs. Another seems to show a band member shouting \"up Hamas, up Hezbollah\". Both groups are banned in the UK and it is a crime to express support for them.\n\n> \\[...]\n\n> They claimed that footage where they appeared to say \"the only good Tory is a dead Tory\" had been \"taken out of all context\", and apologised for the hurt caused to the families of murdered MPs Jo Cox and Sir David Amess.\n\nThe band are [due](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/line-up/) to play at Glastonbury 2025 - the UK's largest and most prestigious music festival - however there have been [calls](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/04/30/kneecap-should-be-banned-full-stop-after-dead-tories-video/) for the band to be removed from the lineup." }, { "id": 37354, "title": "Чи отримає Україна Тауруси до липня 2025? / Will Ukraine acquire Taurus missiles before July 2025?", "short_title": "Taurus missiles for Ukraine before July 2025", "url_title": "Taurus missiles for Ukraine before July 2025", "slug": "taurus-missiles-for-ukraine-before-july-2025", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-01T15:50:52.600682Z", "published_at": "2025-04-30T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.459168Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-05T12:50:37Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-03T11:19:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-06T12:50:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32720, "name": "Ukraine Community", "type": "community", "slug": "ukraine", "description": "\n\nВітаємо на сторінці української спільноти прогнозистів.\n\nПеревіряйте свої здібності на питаннях з української економіки, політики, культури, спорту і науки.\n\n> Навіщо робити прогнози, ніхто ж точно не знає майбутнього?\n\nСаме так, ми не знаємо майбутнє, але ми можемо знати *ймовірність події* і збудувати від цього свої плани на різні сценарії.\n\nАле де взяти цю ймовірність події? Одна з ідей - це запитати *мудрість натовпу*. \n\nКоли багато людей незалежно оцінюють шанси якоїсь події, їх середня оцінка дуже часто краще ніж оцінка кожної окремої людини. \n\nВи можете наявно побачити це у таблиці кращих прогнозистів метакулуса. Наприклад у 2023-му році оцінка комʼюніті [зайняла сьоме місце](https://www.metaculus.com/leaderboard/?category=peer\\&year=2023\\&duration=1) серед 2525 учасників сайту.\n\nЗ першого травня 2025 тут стартує турнір з 10 питань з української тематики. \n\nЯкщо набереться достатньо учасників, в нього буде призовий фонд для топ-7. Якщо ні, то турнір буде \"розігрівочний\" без призів, а призовий проведемо іншого разу.\n\nУчасть безкоштовна. Приходьте і приводьте друзів, але не робіть мульті-акаунти на себе. Тут з цим суворо - перевірять і забанять. \n\nСпільнота у соціальних мережах:\n\n* [Телеграм](https://t.me/metaculusua)", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 3, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 36714, "title": "Чи отримає Україна Тауруси до липня 2025? / Will Ukraine acquire Taurus missiles before July 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-01T15:50:52.601104Z", "open_time": "2025-05-06T12:50:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-14T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-03T11:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-03T11:22:36.163897Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-19T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-19T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "##### \\[English below]\n\nКрилата ракета [Taurus KEPD 350](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taurus_KEPD_350) - це зброя повітряного базування німецького виробництва із заявленою дальністю польоту понад 500 км. Вона призначена для ураження «твердих і глибоко залягаючих цілей» (HDBT), таких як укріплені підземні бункери. Збройні сили України (ЗСУ) можуть використовувати її для ураження Керченського мосту, ключового логістичного маршруту для російських військ. Через велику дальність польоту ракета також може становити потенційну загрозу для Москви у разі її розгортання.\n\nЗа даними [*Ground News*](https://ground.news/article/merz-reaffirms-openness-to-taurus-delivery-eu-welcomes-german-change-of-course), у квітні 2025 року Фрідріх Мерц, призначений канцлером Німеччини, заявив, що він схвалить постачання ракет Taurus KEPD 350 в Україну за умови отримання згоди від європейських партнерів.\n\nНа тлі невизначеності щодо подальшої військової підтримки з боку США ці ракети можуть посилити здатність ЗСУ наносити удари на великі відстані. Однак, побоювання щодо ескалації конфлікту все ще можуть стримувати їх поставку.\n\n***\n\nThe [Taurus KEPD 350](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taurus_KEPD_350) cruise missile is a German-produced, air-launched weapon with a declared range of over 500 km. It is designed to destroy “hard and deeply buried targets” (HDBT), such as hardened underground bunkers. The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) may use it to target the Kerch Bridge, a key logistical route for Russian forces. Due to its long range, the missile could also pose a potential threat to the city of Moscow if deployed.\n\nAccording to [*Ground News*](https://ground.news/article/merz-reaffirms-openness-to-taurus-delivery-eu-welcomes-german-change-of-course), in April 2025, Friedrich Merz — Germany’s chancellor-designate — stated that he would approve the delivery of Taurus KEPD 350 missiles to Ukraine, pending agreement from European partners.\n\nAmid uncertainty over continued U.S. military support, these missiles could enhance the AFU’s capacity for long-range strikes. However, concerns about escalation may still deter their delivery.", "resolution_criteria": "##### \\[English below]\n\nЦе питання вирішується у **Так**, якщо між **5 травня 2025** року та **1 липня 2025** року з'являться достовірні повідомлення про те, що Збройні сили України (ЗСУ) мають щонайменше одну крилату ракету Taurus KEPD 350 або її модифікацію (детальніше див. у секції Fine Print), або про те, що ЗСУ здійснили запуск такої ракети.\n\nАльтернативно, воно вирішеться у **Так,** якщо ракета однозначно вказана на [сторінці, присвяченій військовій підтримці України](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/military-support-ukraine-2054992), на офіційному веб-сайті Федерального уряду Німеччини. Якщо ця сторінка буде недоступною, джерелом для вирішення питання може бути інша сторінка того ж офіційного сайту, за умови, що вона містить перелік військової техніки, поставленої Німеччиною в Україну.\n\nЯкщо жоден з цих критеріїв не буде виконаний до **1 липня 2025** року, питання вирішується як «Ні».\n\n***\n\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if, after **May 5, 2025** and before **July 1, 2025**, there are credible reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) possess at least one Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missile or its variant (see the Fine Print for details), or that the AFU have launched one.\n\nAlternatively, the question will resolve as **Yes** if the missile is unambiguously listed on the [page dedicated to military support for Ukraine](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/military-support-ukraine-2054992) on the German Federal Government’s official website. If this page becomes unavailable, another page from the same official website may be used as a resolution source, provided it includes a list of military equipment delivered to Ukraine by Germany.\n\nIf none of these criteria are met by **July 1, 2025**, the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "##### \\[English below]\n\nРакета має бути робочою. Модель, надана для вивчення або реплікації, не може бути кваліфікована, так само як і ракета Taurus, яка впала в Україні після запуску іншою країною.\n\nІнша ракета дальнього радіусу дії буде вважатися варіантом ракети Taurus KEPD 350, якщо будуть виконані всі наведені нижче умови:\n\n* Це крилата ракета повітряного базування\n* Це ракета класу \"повітря-земля\"\n* Вона має німецьке походження\n* Вона має дальність польоту щонайменше 400 км (наприклад, варіант KEPD 350K-2)\n* Має боєголовку вагою щонайменше 100 кг\n* Офіційна назва ракети не обов'язково має містити слово Taurus.\n\nПоставка аналогічної ракети, виробленої третьою країною (наприклад, [Storm Shadow](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow)) не призведе до вирішення питання, навіть якщо вона була здійснена німецьким урядом.\n\n***\n\nThe missile must be operational. A model provided for study or replication does not qualify, nor does a Taurus missile that landed in Ukraine after being launched by another country.\n\nA different long-range missile will qualify as a variant of the Taurus KEPD 350 if all of the following conditions are met:\n\n* It is an air-launched cruise missile\n* It is an air-to-ground missile\n* It is of German origin\n* It has a range of at least 400 km (e.g., the KEPD 350K-2 variant)\n* It has a warhead of at least 100 kg\n\nThe missile’s official name does not need to include the word “Taurus.”\n\nDelivering a similarly capable missile manufactured by a third country (e.g. the [Storm Shadow](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow)) will not trigger the resolution even if delivery was done by the German government.", "post_id": 37354, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750347382.349033, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750347382.349033, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.21452532842211666 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.6422742015709613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.720922830823939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2931027540164327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.9409628304248254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4177035342880956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49129737340348384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 43.04132567327012, "peer_score": 9.616147048452131, "coverage": 0.9947384601991875, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9947384601991875, "spot_peer_score": -0.5286877292350616, "spot_baseline_score": 18.903382439001714, "baseline_archived_score": 43.04132567327012, "peer_archived_score": 9.616147048452131, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.5286877292350616, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 18.903382439001714 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 42, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "##### \\[English below]\n\nКрилата ракета [Taurus KEPD 350](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taurus_KEPD_350) - це зброя повітряного базування німецького виробництва із заявленою дальністю польоту понад 500 км. Вона призначена для ураження «твердих і глибоко залягаючих цілей» (HDBT), таких як укріплені підземні бункери. Збройні сили України (ЗСУ) можуть використовувати її для ураження Керченського мосту, ключового логістичного маршруту для російських військ. Через велику дальність польоту ракета також може становити потенційну загрозу для Москви у разі її розгортання.\n\nЗа даними [*Ground News*](https://ground.news/article/merz-reaffirms-openness-to-taurus-delivery-eu-welcomes-german-change-of-course), у квітні 2025 року Фрідріх Мерц, призначений канцлером Німеччини, заявив, що він схвалить постачання ракет Taurus KEPD 350 в Україну за умови отримання згоди від європейських партнерів.\n\nНа тлі невизначеності щодо подальшої військової підтримки з боку США ці ракети можуть посилити здатність ЗСУ наносити удари на великі відстані. Однак, побоювання щодо ескалації конфлікту все ще можуть стримувати їх поставку.\n\n***\n\nThe [Taurus KEPD 350](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taurus_KEPD_350) cruise missile is a German-produced, air-launched weapon with a declared range of over 500 km. It is designed to destroy “hard and deeply buried targets” (HDBT), such as hardened underground bunkers. The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) may use it to target the Kerch Bridge, a key logistical route for Russian forces. Due to its long range, the missile could also pose a potential threat to the city of Moscow if deployed.\n\nAccording to [*Ground News*](https://ground.news/article/merz-reaffirms-openness-to-taurus-delivery-eu-welcomes-german-change-of-course), in April 2025, Friedrich Merz — Germany’s chancellor-designate — stated that he would approve the delivery of Taurus KEPD 350 missiles to Ukraine, pending agreement from European partners.\n\nAmid uncertainty over continued U.S. military support, these missiles could enhance the AFU’s capacity for long-range strikes. However, concerns about escalation may still deter their delivery." }, { "id": 37353, "title": "Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?", "short_title": "Musk removed as CEO of Tesla before 2027?", "url_title": "Musk removed as CEO of Tesla before 2027?", "slug": "musk-removed-as-ceo-of-tesla-before-2027", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-01T14:57:22.591762Z", "published_at": "2025-05-01T18:15:04Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-09T15:49:56.452374Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-01T18:18:20.433828Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-05-02T18:15:04Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 36713, "title": "Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-05-01T14:57:22.592181Z", "open_time": "2025-05-02T18:15:04Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-06T18:15:04Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-06T18:15:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 1 May 2025 [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/tesla-musk-ceo-search-board-0ce61af9?mod=hp_lead_pos1) reported that Tesla’s board had contacted executive-search firms to identify possible successors. Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm and Musk both called the story “absolutely false,” insisting the board remains “highly confident” in Musk’s leadership.\n\nSee also: [*When will these CEOs no longer be CEO?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30589/ceo-departure-dates/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2027, Elon Musk no longer holds the title *Chief Executive Officer* (or an unequivocally equivalent highest-ranking executive title) of Tesla, Inc.", "fine_print": "* “Removed” means he ceases to hold the CEO title (or equivalent as specified above) for any reason—including dismissal, resignation, permanent incapacity, or corporate restructuring—at any moment prior to the cut-off.\n* If Tesla eliminates the CEO title entirely, this question will resolve as **Yes** unless Musk clearly remains the highest-ranking day-to-day executive (e.g., is labeled “Technoking of Tesla” *and* no one else is CEO).\n* If Tesla merges, is acquired, or changes corporate form, the outcome is **Yes** only if Musk is CEO of the surviving Tesla-branded operating entity.\n* In the case that someone is named an interim CEO, this question will not resolve as **Yes** based on that alone, assuming that the understanding is that they are filling in for Musk on a temporary basis.\n\nThis question will resolve based on Tesla press releases or other credible sources.", "post_id": 37353, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757587044.851, "end_time": 1757942710.963, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757587044.851, "end_time": 1757942710.963, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.14763957497288277 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0232213050011847, 0.18119093168767203, 0.0, 1.0849609750157663, 0.2425126729529749, 1.6326523407968878, 0.0, 0.05148079025128712, 0.00902096530357109, 1.6113804306526434, 1.2025744317540736, 0.0, 0.20005070513194295, 0.0, 0.12031852867816667, 1.1034037875199052, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0381129698594935, 0.0, 0.5418131085202175, 0.0, 0.06665641869459375, 0.31967846996806076, 0.039003561466750214, 0.010219184820091213, 0.16378110850070704, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14772949571888752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13294920078905473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03365548811464179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2920067509037526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028841894683954285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5400468969395904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 172, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On 1 May 2025 [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/tesla-musk-ceo-search-board-0ce61af9?mod=hp_lead_pos1) reported that Tesla’s board had contacted executive-search firms to identify possible successors. Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm and Musk both called the story “absolutely false,” insisting the board remains “highly confident” in Musk’s leadership.\n\nSee also: [*When will these CEOs no longer be CEO?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30589/ceo-departure-dates/)" }, { "id": 37349, "title": "Will the House of Representatives seat a legislator who was not certified as the winner of their election before July 1, 2027?", "short_title": "Will the House seat a legislator who was not certified winner before July 2027?", "url_title": "Will the House seat a legislator who was not certified winner before July 2027?", "slug": "will-the-house-seat-a-legislator-who-was-not-certified-winner-before-july-2027", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-30T19:44:34.812996Z", "published_at": "2025-05-01T15:52:02Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T01:47:33.589853Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-01T15:52:10Z", 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"description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 36711, "title": "Will the House of Representatives seat a legislator who was not certified as the winner of their election before July 1, 2027?", "created_at": "2025-04-30T19:44:34.813358Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-07-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-07-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-07-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In recent years, President Donald Trump has [<u>asserted</u>](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/timeline-donald-trumps-election-denial-claims-republican-politicians/story?id=89168408) the existence of rampant election fraud, but has provided [<u>little to no evidence</u>](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/widespread-election-fraud-claims-by-republicans-dont-match-the-evidence/) to back up these assertions. Following his election loss in 2020, Trump [<u>pressured numerous state officials</u>](https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/point-4-evidence-trump-tried-convince-state-lawmakers-and-election-officials-alter-election-results) to challenge certified results on the basis of fraud and corruption. If a Trump-aligned majority controls the House, they could theoretically [<u>use</u>](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RL33780) Article I, Section 5 of the Constitution to refuse to seat certified members or seat their own choices under disputed election claims.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before July 1, 2027, the House of Representatives seats an individual as a member who was not certified as the winner of their election by the [<u>relevant state authorities</u>](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d-V0OQGaN7TF289Qy4L8ot1kaZBFLD8BExHNhvQituw/edit?gid=420665400#gid=420665400). \n\nIt will resolve as **No** if no such individual is seated by that time.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, the certified winner is the individual who has received an official certificate of election from the appropriate state authority. An individual is considered seated when they have taken the oath of office and are recognized as a member of the House of Representatives. This question pertains only to individuals elected to the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nWe will rely on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) for the resolution of this question.", "post_id": 37349, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757468842.537438, "end_time": 1757926914.309, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757468842.537438, "end_time": 1757926914.309, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.1556022483383749 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.028776354815502, 0.4394198425629716, 2.811037564522266, 1.3023124555219143, 2.4623211915093868, 1.527086487145431, 0.13999378473282567, 0.18957685801753163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45191757866367244, 0.16936689932536722, 0.00025661101180229933, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007681136336700427, 0.2072457012947375, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0003354626279025118, 1.737388576298566, 0.3004851860311037, 0.012995582973728041, 0.0, 0.5985968059200315, 0.32896445200073904, 0.0, 0.5103691727915967, 0.043095124901722154, 0.0, 0.019895982148904024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9198475092249028, 0.0, 0.664754849690976, 0.0, 0.0031594436946416338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02962136754402973, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037186999019906845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8170614041506024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24717103491016296 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 182, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In recent years, President Donald Trump has [<u>asserted</u>](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/timeline-donald-trumps-election-denial-claims-republican-politicians/story?id=89168408) the existence of rampant election fraud, but has provided [<u>little to no evidence</u>](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/widespread-election-fraud-claims-by-republicans-dont-match-the-evidence/) to back up these assertions. Following his election loss in 2020, Trump [<u>pressured numerous state officials</u>](https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/point-4-evidence-trump-tried-convince-state-lawmakers-and-election-officials-alter-election-results) to challenge certified results on the basis of fraud and corruption. If a Trump-aligned majority controls the House, they could theoretically [<u>use</u>](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RL33780) Article I, Section 5 of the Constitution to refuse to seat certified members or seat their own choices under disputed election claims." }, { "id": 37348, "title": "Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will DOJ indict Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor before January 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will DOJ indict Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor before January 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-doj-indict-christopher-krebs-or-miles-taylor-before-january-1-2026", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-30T19:39:22.181476Z", "published_at": "2025-05-01T15:51:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T05:56:05.448587Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": 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"prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-03-28T14:13:19.425592Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T11:52:22.396318Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 32764, "type": "question_series", "name": "BLW POTUS Questions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-04-28T14:38:37.196068Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T03:24:59.477745Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 36710, "title": "Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-30T19:39:22.181913Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 9, 2025, President Donald Trump signed [<u>presidential</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/addressing-risks-from-chris-krebs-and-government-censorship/) [<u>memoranda</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/addressing-risks-associated-with-an-egregious-leaker-and-disseminator-of-falsehoods/) directing the Department of Justice to investigate two former officials from his first administration: [<u>Christopher Krebs</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Krebs) and [<u>Miles Taylor</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miles_Taylor_\\(security_expert\\)). Taylor, serving as a high-ranking Homeland Security official before his departure in 2019, revealed himself as the [<u>author</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Am_Part_of_the_Resistance_Inside_the_Trump_Administration) of a sharply critical [<u>op-ed</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/05/opinion/trump-white-house-anonymous-resistance.html) in *The New York Times* detailing internal resistance to Trump’s “misguided impulses.” In a memorandum and accompanying [<u>statements</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/09/trump-justice-department-critics) Trump accused Taylor of committing domestic espionage and treason. Taylor has since [<u>responded</u>](https://x.com/MilesTaylorUSA/status/1910071199042068916) to these allegations, criticizing the attack on dissenting views and further escalating tension between the two individuals. Similarly, Christopher Krebs, the former director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, faced intense scrutiny from President Trump for [<u>contradicting</u>](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/17/936003057/cisa-director-chris-krebs-fired-after-trying-to-correct-voter-fraud-disinformati) Trump’s assertion of 2020 election fraud and allegedly “suppress\\[ing] conservative viewpoints under the guise of combatting supposed disinformation”.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before January 1, 2026, the Department of Justice (DOJ) files a federal criminal [indictment](https://thelawdictionary.org/indictment/) against Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, former officials from President Trump’s first administration.\n\nIt will resolve as **No** if no such indictment is filed by that time.", "fine_print": "Only federal criminal indictments filed by the DOJ are considered.\n\nThis question will be resolved according to information published by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) before January 1, 2026.", "post_id": 37348, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757570154.846191, "end_time": 1757791491.52, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757570154.846191, "end_time": 1757791491.52, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.19318725637378717 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8708818550943294, 0.0, 0.2879019056547677, 0.12804351164029554, 0.055522266795466554, 1.1724441461260715, 0.9461206906142233, 2.6835480624641233, 0.608779635144062, 1.6280681710885212, 0.7373529355460452, 0.6452258875526655, 0.8425329980865741, 0.051168938147855926, 0.007210049137510858, 0.9497956132426704, 0.0, 0.010998974404875215, 0.033422335042386925, 0.0521499097018473, 0.0013523717240138745, 0.27427403555537694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01732880491444991, 1.0192029213659606, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014500440020768085, 0.14749563312177918, 0.0, 0.3268901147942556, 0.0, 0.03970081934649292, 0.002758391723504557, 0.021084170877201564, 0.446088471534527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032187559410783474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023193516142010238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019630151089922105, 0.8948374224172492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010221630333147167, 0.06516519198932734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3940227093104349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7134897192591153, 0.47295204745398656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004802654549584282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014128607803813408 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 261, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 9, 2025, President Donald Trump signed [<u>presidential</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/addressing-risks-from-chris-krebs-and-government-censorship/) [<u>memoranda</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/addressing-risks-associated-with-an-egregious-leaker-and-disseminator-of-falsehoods/) directing the Department of Justice to investigate two former officials from his first administration: [<u>Christopher Krebs</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Krebs) and [<u>Miles Taylor</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miles_Taylor_\\(security_expert\\)). Taylor, serving as a high-ranking Homeland Security official before his departure in 2019, revealed himself as the [<u>author</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Am_Part_of_the_Resistance_Inside_the_Trump_Administration) of a sharply critical [<u>op-ed</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/05/opinion/trump-white-house-anonymous-resistance.html) in *The New York Times* detailing internal resistance to Trump’s “misguided impulses.” In a memorandum and accompanying [<u>statements</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/09/trump-justice-department-critics) Trump accused Taylor of committing domestic espionage and treason. Taylor has since [<u>responded</u>](https://x.com/MilesTaylorUSA/status/1910071199042068916) to these allegations, criticizing the attack on dissenting views and further escalating tension between the two individuals. Similarly, Christopher Krebs, the former director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, faced intense scrutiny from President Trump for [<u>contradicting</u>](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/17/936003057/cisa-director-chris-krebs-fired-after-trying-to-correct-voter-fraud-disinformati) Trump’s assertion of 2020 election fraud and allegedly “suppress\\[ing] conservative viewpoints under the guise of combatting supposed disinformation”." }, { "id": 37347, "title": "Will the Department of Homeland Security revoke or suspend the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) certification for an Ivy League university before September 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the DHS revoke or suspend SEVP for an Ivy League before September 2025?", "url_title": "Will the DHS revoke or suspend SEVP for an Ivy League before September 2025?", "slug": "will-the-dhs-revoke-or-suspend-sevp-for-an-ivy-league-before-september-2025", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-30T19:27:32.062865Z", "published_at": "2025-05-01T15:51:02Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.010546Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-01T15:51:12Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T15:23:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 131, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": 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"visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32723, "type": "question_series", "name": "Midterm Phase", "slug": "midterm", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-03-28T14:13:19.425592Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T11:52:22.396318Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 32764, "type": "question_series", "name": "BLW POTUS Questions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-04-28T14:38:37.196068Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T03:24:59.477745Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 36709, "title": "Will the Department of Homeland Security revoke or suspend the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) certification for an Ivy League university before September 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-30T19:27:32.063303Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T15:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-01T15:23:28.702242Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [US Department of State](https://it.usembassy.gov/visas/niv/f-m/):\n\n> F and M visas are for persons who wish to study in the U.S. The “F” visa is for academic studies, and the “M” visa is for nonacademic or vocational studies.\n\nAs of April 2025, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has [<u>threatened</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/16/us/harvard-kristi-noem-international-students/index.html) to revoke Harvard University's certification under the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP), which authorizes institutions to enroll international students on F and M visas. This threat stems from allegations that Harvard has created a \"hostile learning environment\" for Jewish students and has failed to adequately address antisemitism on campus. DHS has demanded that Harvard provide detailed records of international students' involvement in \"illegal and violent activities\" by April 30, 2025, warning that noncompliance would result in the automatic withdrawal of the university's SEVP certification.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before September 1, 2025, the DHS formally revokes or suspends the SEVP certification of at least one university in the Ivy League, thereby preventing the affected institution from enrolling new international students under F or M visas.\n\nIt will resolve as **No** if no Ivy League SEVP certification is revoked or suspended before that date.", "fine_print": "An announcement or notice of intent alone is not sufficient, the revocation or suspension must take effect.\n\nThe Ivy League includes the following institutions: Brown University, Columbia University, Cornell University, Dartmouth College, Harvard University, University of Pennsylvania, Princeton University, and Yale University.\n\nUnder the circumstance that a court blocks the revocation or suspension by the DHS, this question will also resolve as **Yes** if the revocation or suspension is enacted in defiance of said court order.\n\nResolution will be determined based on information published by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "post_id": 37347, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756689295.669902, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756689295.669902, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.996, 0.004 ], "means": [ 0.07944579473531313 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.388643154658164, 1.562463330188732, 1.3090709100159483, 0.9317092510284106, 0.27742216853755075, 1.4078996558724355, 0.34611235558488596, 0.09414554715751323, 0.042388563321381176, 0.029661619281934278, 0.2500599868438591, 0.0, 0.013645147057851355, 0.10829691824243091, 0.006999999670088609, 0.2787015503624578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007817382984873385, 0.0, 0.06076559320987963, 0.0, 0.007377534627111256, 0.009675584690710932, 0.0, 0.0033717487736429743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18488626261549734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005497242986424036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000590830648692911, 0.0, 0.010726889564779733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018890079689041174, 0.017443009280097798, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007481454443624551, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00032889645943876195, 0.0, 0.01443890889948288, 0.0, 0.0018233986649067188, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004519539225959827, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00135283348636685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03504162628462949, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000926134218651555, 0.0, 0.9601052844866299 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 20.51913040863267, "peer_score": 26.911768018162416, "coverage": 0.9998287717380681, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998287717380681, "spot_peer_score": 28.691912750094453, "spot_baseline_score": 60.40713236688608, "baseline_archived_score": 20.51913040863267, "peer_archived_score": 26.911768018162416, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 28.691912750094453, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 60.40713236688608 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 545, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [US Department of State](https://it.usembassy.gov/visas/niv/f-m/):\n\n> F and M visas are for persons who wish to study in the U.S. The “F” visa is for academic studies, and the “M” visa is for nonacademic or vocational studies.\n\nAs of April 2025, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has [<u>threatened</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/16/us/harvard-kristi-noem-international-students/index.html) to revoke Harvard University's certification under the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP), which authorizes institutions to enroll international students on F and M visas. This threat stems from allegations that Harvard has created a \"hostile learning environment\" for Jewish students and has failed to adequately address antisemitism on campus. DHS has demanded that Harvard provide detailed records of international students' involvement in \"illegal and violent activities\" by April 30, 2025, warning that noncompliance would result in the automatic withdrawal of the university's SEVP certification." }, { "id": 37346, "title": "Will the White House admit at least one AP reporter or photographer to an Oval Office media event before July 1, 2025, in compliance with Judge Trevor McFadden’s April 8 preliminary injunction?", "short_title": "Will WH admit 1 or more AP reporter or photog to media event per injunction?", "url_title": "Will WH admit 1 or more AP reporter or photog to media event per injunction?", "slug": "will-wh-admit-1-or-more-ap-reporter-or-photog-to-media-event-per-injunction", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-30T19:00:45.116537Z", "published_at": "2025-05-01T15:50:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.524258Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-01T15:50:42Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-08T22:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-08T22:11:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T11:53:10.635511Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T11:53:10.635511Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32723, "type": "question_series", "name": "Midterm Phase", "slug": "midterm", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-03-28T14:13:19.425592Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T11:52:22.396318Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 32764, "type": "question_series", "name": "BLW POTUS Questions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-04-28T14:38:37.196068Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T03:24:59.477745Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 36708, "title": "Will the White House admit at least one AP reporter or photographer to an Oval Office media event before July 1, 2025, in compliance with Judge Trevor McFadden’s April 8 preliminary injunction?", "created_at": "2025-04-30T19:00:45.117025Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-08T22:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-09T01:22:55.209579Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-08T22:11:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Trump administration [<u>began restricting</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/white-house-bars-associated-press-oval-office-air-force-one/) the Associated Press's (AP) access to Oval Office events on [<u>February 11</u>](https://www.ap.org/media-center/ap-in-the-news/2025/white-house-bars-ap-reporter-from-oval-office-because-of-ap-style-policy-on-gulf-of-america/), 2025, after the AP declined to adopt the administration's preferred term \"Gulf of America\" instead of \"Gulf of Mexico\" in its reporting. On April 8, 2025, U.S. District Judge Trevor McFadden issued a preliminary injunction ordering the White House to [<u>restore</u>](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78je27x2v9o) the AP’s access to Oval Office press events. Despite the court order, AP reporters [<u>remain barred</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/associated-press-reporters-blocked-oval-office-event-white-house/) from attending Oval Office events.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, at least one journalist or photographer employed by the Associated Press (AP) is admitted to an Oval Office media event hosted by the White House, as evidenced by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) or confirmation from the Associated Press.\n\nIt will resolve as **No** if, before July 1, 2025, no AP reporter or photographer has been admitted to any such event.", "fine_print": "A media event refers to any scheduled or impromptu event in the Oval Office to which members of the press are invited to report or take photographs.\n\n“Admitted” means physically granted access to the Oval Office for the purpose of reporting or photography, not merely allowed on White House grounds.\n\nThe individual must be employed by the Associated Press and formally affiliated with the organization.\n\nEvidence may include but is not limited to:\n\n* Press pool reports listing AP personnel\n* White House press office access logs\n* Statements from the AP or other credible sources", "post_id": 37346, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746740295.562664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746740295.562664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.44768966856957315 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4232326753374705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1350166315751149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3507374953742156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5355087033617794, 0.0, 0.26027447991622393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2078317711451863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.850240976340088, 0.0, 0.1516622826293349, 0.0, 0.07140076303461346, 1.5630005703856678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005273832250717887, 0.0, 0.053483974712060484, 0.7427863096759144, 0.0, 0.7827061049060935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.956608621956553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0109660933338958, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007980258807527762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038968642356904164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.949921721551882, 0.46404561502386255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11980469871044437, 0.0, 0.06198292201444626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12026351477195975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1698461853777333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7542630621875321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21127762784985343 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Trump administration [<u>began restricting</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/white-house-bars-associated-press-oval-office-air-force-one/) the Associated Press's (AP) access to Oval Office events on [<u>February 11</u>](https://www.ap.org/media-center/ap-in-the-news/2025/white-house-bars-ap-reporter-from-oval-office-because-of-ap-style-policy-on-gulf-of-america/), 2025, after the AP declined to adopt the administration's preferred term \"Gulf of America\" instead of \"Gulf of Mexico\" in its reporting. On April 8, 2025, U.S. District Judge Trevor McFadden issued a preliminary injunction ordering the White House to [<u>restore</u>](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78je27x2v9o) the AP’s access to Oval Office press events. Despite the court order, AP reporters [<u>remain barred</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/associated-press-reporters-blocked-oval-office-event-white-house/) from attending Oval Office events." } ] }
