Question

Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?

Resolved:No

7 comments7

Total Forecasters138

Community Prediction

(0.4% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

16.3

Community Baseline Score

91.9

Authors:

ADQ

Opened:

Jul 14, 2025

Closes:

Aug 29, 2025

Resolves:

Sep 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 16, 2025

Thailand’s embattled prime minister has been dismissed. What happens now?

Independent•Aug 30, 2025

Why Paetongtarn Shinawatra was removed as Thailand’s PM and what it means for fragile political landscape

Independent•Aug 30, 2025

Thai PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra removed from office over call with ex-Cambodia leader

Independent•Aug 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be another deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more fatalities, before 2026?

35%

Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?

0.1%

Will there be major civil unrest or martial law in the Philippines in 2025?

Authors:

ADQ

Opened:

Jul 14, 2025

Closes:

Aug 29, 2025

Resolves:

Sep 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 16, 2025

Thailand’s embattled prime minister has been dismissed. What happens now?

Independent•Aug 30, 2025

Why Paetongtarn Shinawatra was removed as Thailand’s PM and what it means for fragile political landscape

Independent•Aug 30, 2025

Thai PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra removed from office over call with ex-Cambodia leader

Independent•Aug 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be another deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more fatalities, before 2026?

35%

Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?

0.1%