AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
11 Followers
13 Questions
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?
What will be the sum of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI's publicly reported annualized revenues by December 31st 2025, in USD billions?
Current estimate
30.1B billion $
How likely do you think it is that overall, the impact of High Level Machine Intelligence will be extremely negative for humanity in the long run?
What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?
What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
87.8 score
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Model Autonomy?
What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
0.933 score
What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?
What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?