AI 2025 Forecasting Survey

12 Followers

13 Questions

Moderated by romeodean

0 comments

14 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?

20%chance

10% this week

4 comments

13 forecasters

What will be the sum of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI's publicly reported annualized revenues by December 31st 2025, in USD billions?

Current estimate

29.8B billion $

Key Factors

0 comments

12 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?

25%chance

8.3% this week

0 comments

9 forecasters

What percentage of Americans will identify computers/technology advancement as the US's most important problem by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate

0.54%

1 comment

9 forecasters

What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate

82.6%

3 comments

12 forecasters

What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate

73.1%

1 comment

6 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Model Autonomy?

resultYes

2 comments

8 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?

resultYes

0 comments

15 forecasters

What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate

87.5 score

7 comments

21 forecasters

What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?

Current estimate

49.7%