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AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
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13
Questions
Moderated by
romeodean
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?
32.5%
chance
7.5% this week
What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?
88.5
score
1.8 score this week
What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?
56.4%
3.3 % this week
What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?
0.982
score
0.1 score this week
What will be the sum of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI's publicly reported annualized revenues by December 31st 2025, in USD billions?
Key Factor
OpenAI's projected $20B annualized revenue for 2025
30B
billion $
Key Factor
OpenAI's projected $20B annualized revenue for 2025
What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?
70.1%
0.9 % this week
What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?
76.6%
What percentage of Americans will identify computers/technology advancement as the US's most important problem by December 31st 2025?
1.28%
In what year will there will be High Level Machine Intelligence which can accomplish every cognitive task better and more cheaply than human workers?
04 Aug 2028
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Model Autonomy?
result
Yes
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