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AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
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13
Questions
Moderated by
romeodean
What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?
58.5%
What will be the sum of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI's publicly reported annualized revenues by December 31st 2025, in USD billions?
20.6B
billion $
What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?
1.14
score
0 score this week
What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?
90.5
score
What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?
73.9%
What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?
71.9%
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?
result
Yes
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?
40%
chance
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?
52%
chance
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Model Autonomy?
result
Yes
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