Contributed by the AI Warning Signs community.

Question

Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters11

Community Prediction

62.8%

(25% - 65%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 62.8%

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

Haiku

Opened:

Jan 18, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 18, 2025

AI Warning Signs

Economy & Business

Artificial Intelligence

Just Like The Dot-Com Era, Are We Seeing An AI Era Based More On Hype Than Substance When It Comes To Massive AI Startup Investment Rounds?

•Jun 23, 2025

Prediction: This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Could Be the Biggest Winner of the Second Half of 2025

•Jun 20, 2025

The 5 arguments against continued dominance for AI stocks

Business Insider•Jun 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

90%

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

17.8%

Five years after AGI, will a single AI company dominate the world economy?

Authors:

Haiku

Opened:

Jan 18, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 18, 2025

AI Warning Signs

Economy & Business

Artificial Intelligence

Just Like The Dot-Com Era, Are We Seeing An AI Era Based More On Hype Than Substance When It Comes To Massive AI Startup Investment Rounds?

•Jun 23, 2025

Prediction: This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Could Be the Biggest Winner of the Second Half of 2025

•Jun 20, 2025

The 5 arguments against continued dominance for AI stocks

Business Insider•Jun 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

90%

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

17.8%