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AI Warning Signs

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6 Questions

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21 forecasters

Will a tool that can easily generate whole-cloth generative AI deepfakes be broadly accessible before 2030?

95%chance

29 forecasters

Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?

70%chance

28 forecasters

Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?

96%chance

58 forecasters

Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

86%chance

Key Factors

Independent:
AI-powered computer worms herald ‘new era’ of cybersecurity threats

20 forecasters

Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression explicitly due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

20%chance

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