Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Model Autonomy?

no comments0

Total Forecasters6

Community Prediction

60%

(54% - 90%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60%

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

Authors:

romeodean

Opened:

Feb 9, 2025

Closed:

Feb 17, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 17, 2025

Harvard's AI Safety Student Team

OpenAI co-founder calls for AI labs to safety-test rival models

TechCrunch•Aug 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?

15%

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

95%

Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?

58%

Authors:

romeodean

Opened:

Feb 9, 2025

Closed:

Feb 17, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 17, 2025

Harvard's AI Safety Student Team

OpenAI co-founder calls for AI labs to safety-test rival models

TechCrunch•Aug 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?

15%

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

95%

Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?

58%