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David Mathers' Community
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When will models hit 75% on SWE-Bench [Edit: Verified version]
result
12 Jun 2025
Will China have the largest AI model in 2035? (Resolve "yes" in ambiguous cases)
30%
chance
5% this week
By what year will an AI achieve at least 85% on Francois Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus?
result
20 Dec 2024 12:15
When will the market for industrial robots reach $100 trillion in size?
Oct 2036
What will be total US power consumption in terrawatt hours in 2031?
6645 TWh
When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 2 AI (human-level reasoners)
When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 3 AI (agents that can reliable execute tasks over several days)
15 Jul 2025
When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 4 AI (AI capable of innovation)?
12 Jan 2026
Will AGI-caused economic growth lead to lab-grown meat pushing out factory farming?
30%
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When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus
11 Feb 2028
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