David Mathers' Community

11 Followers

15 Questions

Moderated by DavidA.B.Mathers

3 comments

10 forecasters

Will US government forbid an AI training run outside the US for national security reasons by 2038?

50%chance

3 comments

23 forecasters

Will China have the largest AI model in 2035? (Resolve "yes" in ambiguous cases)

35%chance

4 comments

16 forecasters

When will models hit 90% on SWE-Bench (Verified Version)

community

07 Jun 2026

result

07 Apr 2026 21:17 UTC

0 comments

5 forecasters

When will the market for industrial robots reach $100 trillion in size?

Current estimate

Oct 2040

2 comments

2 forecasters

What % of prime labor age (29-54) US citizens will be employed after an AI growth explosion.

Current estimate

28.4%

0 comments

3 forecasters

What will be total US power consumption in terrawatt hours in 2031?

Current estimate

5807 TWh

10 comments

17 forecasters

When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus

community

13 Jul 2027

result

09 Feb 2026 10:55 UTC

0 comments

3 forecasters

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

Current estimate

13 May 2026

4 comments

11 forecasters

When will models hit 75% on SWE-Bench [Edit: Verified version]

community

02 Aug 2025

result

12 Jun 2025 UTC

1 comment

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 2 AI (human-level reasoners)

community

result

25 Oct 2024 08:00 UTC

4 comments

4 forecasters

By what year will an AI achieve at least 85% on Francois Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus?

community

08 Jul 2026

result

20 Dec 2024 12:15 UTC

2 comments

1 forecaster

When will models hit 97.5% on SWE-Bench (Verified Version)

Annulled

0 comments

10 forecasters

Will AGI-caused economic growth lead to lab-grown meat pushing out factory farming?

30%chance

1 comment

4 forecasters

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 3 AI (agents that can reliable execute tasks over several days)

Current estimate

26 Oct 2026

0 comments

2 forecasters

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 4 AI (AI capable of innovation)?

Current estimate

01 Sep 2026