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17 forecasters
Will China have the largest AI model in 2035? (Resolve "yes" in ambiguous cases)
25%chance
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Authors:
Opened:Aug 16, 2024
Closes:Dec 30, 2035
Scheduled resolution:Jan 30, 2037
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 19, 2024
On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?
4.2×10²⁵ FLOP
(6.2×10²⁴ - 1.7×10²⁶)
4.2×10²⁵ FLOP
(6.2×10²⁴ - 1.7×10²⁶)
25 forecasters
Will the US and China reach a formal agreement to limit frontier AI training or deployment before 2029?
7% chance
178
If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?
80% chance
43