Bright Line Watch Tournament

50 Followers

25 Questions

Moderated by JohnCarey

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

3 comments

115 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?

30%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

4 comments

113 forecasters

Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?

25%chance

5% this week

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

4 comments

135 forecasters

Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?

resultNo

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

11 comments

115 forecasters

Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?

94%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

8 comments

80 forecasters

Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?

resultYes

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

21 comments

117 forecasters

Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?

20%chance

Key Factors

36 comments

182 forecasters

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

2%chance

19 comments

1.1k forecasters

Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?

37%chance

Key Factors

2 comments

996 forecasters

Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?

30%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

33 comments

152 forecasters

Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?

2%chance