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Bright Line Watch
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JohnCarey
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Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?
12%
64 percentage points this week
129 forecasters
5
9 comments
9
Bright Line Watch
Will eight or more of the fifteen heads of the executive departments be serving in an acting role on December 31, 2026?
18%
66 forecasters
6
5 comments
5
Bright Line Watch
Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?
55%
1057 forecasters
33
17 comments
17
ACX 2025 Prediction Contest
Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?
65%
55 percentage points this week
46 forecasters
4
6 comments
6
Bright Line Watch
Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?
99%
21 percentage points this week
62 forecasters
6
3 comments
3
Bright Line Watch
Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?
80%
33 percentage points this week
35 forecasters
5
4 comments
4
Bright Line Watch
Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?
42%
15 percentage points this week
44 forecasters
5
2 comments
2
Bright Line Watch
Will the United States and Denmark announce formal negotiations over the possible transfer of sovereignty of Greenland to the United States before 2026?
2.4%
69 forecasters
3
3 comments
3
Bright Line Watch
Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?
45%
920 forecasters
14
5 comments
5
ACX 2025 Prediction Contest
Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?
15%
47 forecasters
5
2 comments
2
Bright Line Watch
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