Bright Line Watch Tournament

44 Followers

25 Questions

Moderated by JohnCarey

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

Will the United States and Denmark announce formal negotiations over the possible transfer of sovereignty of Greenland to the United States before 2026?

0.3%chance

0.7% this week

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?

76%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?

41%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?

25%chance

Key Factor

Summer weather prolongs protest activities

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?

3.3%chance

1.7% this week

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that partially or fully exempts at least one executive branch department, the CIA, or EPA from the Freedom of Information Act?

10%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

Will eight or more of the fifteen heads of the executive departments be serving in an acting role on December 31, 2026?

10%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?

75%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?

68%chance

Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?

44%chance

Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?

51%chance

Key Factor

USA <-> global trade

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

5%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

Will the U.S. employment to population ratio fall below 50% before 2027?

0.5%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?

66%chance

4% this week

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?

14%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?

8%chance