Contributed by the Brown Forecasting Tournament community.
Question
By May 15, 2025, will there be a frontier reasoning model that is publicly and unambiguously known to conduct much of its reasoning via a medium other than natural language?
Resolved:NoTotal Forecasters14
Community Prediction
18%
(0.1% - 35.1%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?No
Community Peer Score
2.0
Authors:
Opened:Mar 15, 2025
Closes:Mar 15, 2025
Resolves:May 16, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 15, 2025
Authors:
Opened:Mar 15, 2025
Closes:Mar 15, 2025
Resolves:May 16, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 15, 2025
